hahahahahahaha, you are funny!!! “I am gonna take it easy for the rest of the month.” - you say it on the 2nd day of the month!!! You act like it was the last 2-3 days! “Very, very, very particular trades…” - Mike I use this post against you in the future! I will remind you on every Monday when you will enter 7-8 different setups after the weekend analysis :-)))
However it can pay off that you are done for the week. It is a lot better to keep your gains and not lose them fast. It seems like the weekend setups do work, so it is better to make all decisions on the weekend and maybe we should only monitor the trades during the week. No hectic.
One suggestion: I have no idea on your risk management, but I believe to think you trade too large. Yeah, I guess me too, still if 152 pips is a lot of % gain, then you do not give yourself enough room to lose trades.
Ok so here’s something that has been on my mind. What are we expecting from the Euro come the ECB? We clearly saw the reaction to the Euro last week when the CPI results were higher than expected (a spike up). We talked about how big upwards move follow when commercials buy a high percentage of a currency and commodity. I know FE dismisses Euro strength (and so far I agree with him), but is there a possibility that this is set-up for a Euro upward move?
Euro is showing strength today. I don’t really care that it is, I’m really intrigued about why. When you read different reports it says that the rise is because of Spanish Employment data and the expectation that the ECB will apply QE. But shouldn’t QE actually trigger selling of the Euro?
I know its a long shot but you can never be too careful trading, is it possible that Thursday will be long Euro no matter what the news is? Looking at the media can justify the rise no matter what the news is.
The entire world is short Euro (except commercials).
If ECB does apply QE, Euro rises as now there is more confidence in the Euro economy. (The spikes up on QE and higher CPI are there for all to see)
If ECB does not apply QE, Euro price goes up as investors do not feel ECB is doing enough to tackle the deflation threat (similar to how AUD goes up, according to the media, when investors are not feeling RBA are doing enough to talk AUD down.)
ECB does apply QE, but investors do not feel the measures taken apply as QE, and the Euro surge up.
Is it possible that the Euro is about to explode in everyone’s face? Is that a legitimate fear? what do you guys think?
Well thank God it was good news for GBP (construction). I cashed out of my last 2 remaining trades. Took a loss on CHF (-27 pips), but CAD (+12).
My bottom line is +122.6 pips…being +10.8% .
FE, I hear you! No…YOUR FUNNY!
Look, I’ve changed things. I don’t know if this is the place to expound on my trading plan, (as opposed to my trading strategy). But I will divulge if you want.
Let’s just say I have goals. Monthly goals. And whatever it takes, like not trading anymore, then so be it.
I’m half way there. So therefore I can be very very choosy for the rest of the month.
What I have a conviction about lately is the GBP. They are slowly coming back. On my estimations they are not trending ++ (long term, short term) against anybody now. And I think that will change. Basically they have much room to climb. USD is now trending ++ against 5 and RR against 2 (CAD, AUD). The AUD is the same thing, trending ++ against 5 and RR against 2 (CAD, USD).
But what I keep thinking is how the GBP is the most probable Major to raise interest rates first. If that sentiment will stay the same for the entire year, then it only makes sense they will eventually come up to be trending ++ on all sometime before then end of the year. So, I’m watching them, that’s all.
I agree with FE if 152 pips is a lot in % gain. You must trade bigger lots than I do Mike.
I’ve just closed my NZDUSD short trades +103pips /record high for me finally at last all that hard work that we’ve been putting through has paid off :D/
Now I’ve got my two USDCAD long positions open so far so good.
Notice that big drop last week seem to propel them higher.
Reminds me of what my mother used to tell me when I was young. “Sometimes you must hit bottom before you can start climbing”.
I do see that a lot in the charts. When it goes down much, it means it is gonna go up much.
I’m going to TP @ 100 pips and if there’s more room for an upside I’ll get in again at a pullback.
You had a good point with GBP. I haven’t traded GBP for a while so I’m really not quite sure how they’re doing chart wise. But I will keep GBP in my radar. I have a conviction that remaining weeks will be majors. Commdolls had their day on monday.
I am just like a trader like yourself, I do not see the future so I can be wrong with every setup I write. I have though (as you wrote) a very bearish EUR sentiment. That is right. At the moment I also think there is just no reason to change the sentiment. I do not think the whole world is bearish on EUR. Look at our analysis on the weekend. They are not at an extreme level at all. This would mean there is still many pips to go down. Also a 700-800 pip down is not unusual in a bearish market. So I think it is ok.
The Fundamentals are not confirming that there should be a trend change. Worse and worse news are coming, nothing to be optimistic about. If there is not QE, I agree, there would be EUR strength. But how long? I mean it would not change the world and the European economy would still struggle. That would be only a retracement IMO.
The situation was different in May when EUR turned. EUR rallied even when the economy was not doing good at all. No surprise that the trend had to change. With GBP the situation was the samu. Was pretty much overvalued and everyone was bullish so there had to be a correction. By GBP it is IMO not so clear if it was a retracement (a bigger correction) or reversal. By EUR it is a clear reversal and I do not see why it should be oversold in the long run. There has to be some positive change to be bullish on it. I just do not see this coming.
Again, it is only how I see it, it should not keep you away going bullish on it. I am not better than anyone else and can always be wrong. Until the fundamentals do not change, I will only look for short trades.
Thanks for the reply FE. As I said in my earlier post I am still bearish on Euro like yourself. My point of the question was rather if we should steer clear of Euro on Thursday, or if it was a risk worth taking?
For me, I dislike trading through resistance/support on a daily chart.
I have had a line on 3150, was a little bounce there and now is under that, so I may keep an eye on 3145ish for going down, then if we get back to 3110 where price is now and where the next line is then I would take a deep breath and blow, aiming for 3010.
There again it may just head on without me, then I would look to sell on a pull up to the 3110.
I couldn’t buy Euro at present with any degree of confidence, I just figure that the risks are higher that side.
I agree with what Peter wrote. The edge is not on the EUR side. Especially vs. USD. If you want to play EUR long, choose a weaker candidate. NZD, CHF or CAD might work out better for a short-term trade. On the EUR side there is one main argument: looking the USD charts at this very moment, EUR is the only one currency that can hold vs. USD. I respect that. Not that it means something for the future but now they are doing good. Being that said, my two NZD/USD trades hit the profit target at 0.8310. It makes me a bit angry and I moved all other TP levels. I thought more of a medium term trade here and I am out of the move now. It is always good to win but making the right analysis and missing a part of the move then is not nice. I will not re-enter though. No hectic. I did not thinkg that NZD/USD will break through the 0.8300 level so easy.
Eur/Gbp is the indicator that tells that it was GBP selling, and yes it’s the first time the Scottish referendum has raised it’s head, there was an increase in a yes opinion poll.
The effect of Eur/Gbp buying (Gbp selling) has stalled the fall in Euro/USD - it refused go past that line at 3110
If Eur/Gbp holds onto today’s gains then Eur/Usd may well refuse to go lower.
Moral of the story - if going short Eur/Usd, then I will check Eur/Gbp first.
I wanted to keep you guys up on how the week is unraveling. Hope you can easily compare them.
Interesting how NZD goes from on top to last the very next day.
GBP also similar.
Notes: (today)
USD, EUR, CHF, all tied for the day. Even against each other.
So we have it going back and forth for the first 2 days. Comms +5 (monday)…Majors +7 (tuesday)
I hope you guys are keeping your profits. I sure am. I’m not in the market. Waiting for some good opportunities.
I’m up 2% so far this week. USDCAD three long positions went great closed them at 100pips altogether.
Here’s what I’m looking at now guys have a look /FE I know you were in with EURAUD short not sure if thats still going I read few days earlier that you closed your AUD longs, well if you have here’s an another opportunity to go short on EURAUD/
I’m also looking at EURUSD to go short on a nice pullback. I think there’s some happening right now on EURUSD 4h chart. But before I go in with them I’ll look at EURGBP to go down. Again [B]Peterma[/B] we can’t thank you enough for throwing in those clues just at the right time.
Let me know what you think of these ideas guys if you’re looking at them as well. I’m going to wait on ECB monetary policy statement and rate decision. I’ll probably take it as a future direction/bias for EUR before I go short with them.
I like the EURAUD short from the levels he said. I was hoping to see EUR go a bit more higher in the coming days so we can sell it. But I wouldn’t sell now.
Thanks for your quick reply Philip! I do agree with you on EURUSD. I think I’m going to wait a bit. As for EURAUD I might go in short soon prior ECB statement and rate decision.
I’m not sure if anyone of you have been following this I got out of my NZDUSD trades early so I haven’t been. This morning I looked at my charts NZDUSD daily and 4H and to find out the pair headed down to 0.8300 / now 0.82…/
Well as it turns out there was an auction on 2nd of Sep /its usually held twice a month as we know/ but just a reminder next auction will be on 16th of Sep. On last tuesdays auction the price fell by some (6.0%) from previous event with average winning price at 2,787$ /as I vaguely recall the previous average winning price was at around 3,000$/
A further confirmation to short NZD. Nevertheless there must be some good news coming for NZD hopefully! so that we can ride down NZD again on a nice pullback.
Update: I just went back few pages and read FEs view on whether or not we should long EUR now. And I must say you’ve precisely explained as to why we shouldn’t. Even if they were to implement another QE , rise to an upside would only be temporary /a retracement/ I agree with you on that note FE. Its just not enough for EUR to change its course from downward to the upside as there’s many facets to weakening of EUR. Bulls are wary of going long on EUR except for the commercials of course they’ve got deep pockets they can’t just be buying crazy amounts of EUR at one time, they need to split.
Understandable much like what Peterma said, I’m bearish on EUR. I don’t see any solid reason why we should buy EUR now. On top of that we’ve got Ukraine/Russia conflict escalating , US is proposing further sanction against Russia. All no good for eurozone in the long term. Lets say they implement an another QE, eurozone is huge there’s many countries. Given that I highly doubt that we will see any rise in key economic measures anytime soon even after another QE. I believe ECB has already had something similar implemented but we’ve yet to see its result. So another QE may not solve everything in an instant as its complex - many countries.
Now there’s another scenario that we should consider, what if they cut their rates ? Initially there’ll be negative reaction to that news I’m not sure how long. But if that rate cut somehow enables eurozone to get back on track /rise in key indicators after rate cut/ we might consider buying EUR. But then again result would not be that instant. So whatever the case until I improvement in eurozone /CPI GDP employment data back with or above forecast/ or market sentiment I will be bearish.
I did get to my computer some minutes ago and did not understand the strengthening of my exotic currencies and at the same time USD weakness across the board. My hope was realized:
