Hi Peter,
yes, I remember. Actually I remember anything you want just push the exotic currencies further down!
I also entered EUR/USD at 3150, maybe it was even too early. I am considering to close the GBP/USD short, as GBP fell extreme the last days. I have to make up my mind soon on this one.
I will post later my trade updates. And you? Do you share your trade ideas with us?
Have a nice day
I would love to hear Peter has stuck with USD/JPY.
TELL US YOU DID!
Hi guys,
I share with you my trades and also how I see the markets. I have to say we do see so many forces playing an important role like not so often in my opinion. It gives the possibility to make some good pips fast but has also the same risk. I do not change in any currency my long-term bias but we have to have open eyes because there are certainly some possibilities out there to get in in good prices.
My trades:
[B]AUD trades[/B]: closed out with nice profit, but too early. Looking at the GDP report, the AUD is gaining again today, I would have not expect that one.
[B]USD trades[/B]: with NZD and GBP I closed them with nice profits, AUD got crashed since the GDP report + risk off sentiment, entered EUR short time ago (maybe too early, we will see), still have two NZD open positions showing small profit, CAD is for sure making profits but just like AUD, it also gave a punch for USD in the last hours.
[B]GBP trades[/B]: JPY is ok, CHF is very bad, I discuss this issue later on.
[B]Exotic currencies[/B]: finally some movement to the desired direction, in the last couple of hours there is some positive action like with Comms, we will see how far this risk on sentiment continues
I have to say there were some nice gains, I am happy with the results. I am also positive on the development of the trades, I do think we have the right bias. GBP makes me worry, I will discuss it. Besides that I closed the AUD trades too early, but I do think that my reasoning was ok on closing them, so I rather took nice gains and did not lose those pips.
So why do I find the market more challenging than usually?
Now as you see there is a hell of a lot of action going on. It is especially difficult in currencies like NZD where we do see significant good and bad news at the same time. I think besides the GBP, I see the stories in the currencies, there I need some help.
Peter, I think we are putting you slowly on the wrong side You traded some weeks ago only one pair and now you are on the roller-coaster with us on all these setups:-) We got ya! Took some time, but still!
Guys, please do not forget that today I am here and do my work but until Sunday night I will be on the forum for a limited time only. I try to post my COT findings and trade setups on Saturday night though. Our team has a great importance no matter what. Still, I cannot promise it 100%.
Good luck guys, Mike might be the big winner of the week to stay aside with this many questions and puzzles we have to put together.
EDIT: guys, I do not find it in English so you have to rely on my source Putin is playing with the world and with the markets. Moscow just announced they can not make a cease fire since they are not involved in the conflictā¦
Is it just me or for the last few weeks /or days for me/ the volatility is back on with most pairs.
Iām just warming up hopefully the volatility will stay around this level until the end of the year. :57:
Hey guysā¦
Just got this on my phone /I was subscried to this/
Breaking news: Kremlin- Putin didnāt agree on Ukraine cease-fire but did discuss how to resolve conflict, RIA says
I see EURUSD in a downward move back again. There isnāt much on this for now. Thats all it said. Well Ukraine seems to have said it first cease fire agreement. But from Kremlin Putin sure didnāt agree what Ukraine /US, EU zone had proposed/.
Hi guys (mostly rookie and Philip),
I read the posts and would like to react mostly on the mentioned setups:
[B]EUR/USD[/B]: I just called Draghi. He told me we canāt expect too positive news in his statement. He said though that we can still have a chance to play EUR long in the short-term. He mentioned that EUR did not only dropped because of weak economic data but because of tensions in Ukraine. He also does not know when the situation gets better but when it will then we can expect a short-term strength for EUR. That is all I could discuss with him, he had a meeting
[B]EUR/AUD[/B]: just like Philip, I also like the forecast, read the article myself. And just like Philip, I also do not want to buy at current levels. If EUR climbs on positive news from Ukraine then I would be more happy to jump in.
[B]USD/NOK[/B]: well, Philip as you know I like to trade exotic currency pairs. I never traded though this one. I checked the charts, what is interesting, this currency pair has not so much correlation to any of the exotic pairs I do trade. The carry trade I do not know either, with exotic pairs that is always a main argument to trade, but you did not mention how long you want to hold it. I am quite sure thought, if the situation in Ukraine gets better that would mean more NOK strength. Keep me updated how you decide and how your trade was.
Hehe FE ! Youāre one funny guy!
We can use some humour here and there. Canāt be all serious all the time.
I hope your call went well with Draghi ;p. Well if he says so Draghi himself I shall stay bearish on EUR please extend my appreciation to him the next time youāre on the phone with him.
Iām glad you posted your earlier post about the uncertainty in market.
Nope. exited after 100 pips, will probably enter long again Thu/Fri.
Scalp on with gbp (long), nothing much, taking it easy.
FE, you summed it up in one word on the Scottish vote - uncertain.
The markets run very fast from that word, Iāll enter GBP properly when that is out of the way - depending obviously on the outcome.
Good morning fellas.
Iāve been with you all morning. And I agree Rookie! FE is funny!!
Iām just wondering why he didnāt ask you your advise on the matter. :33:
Anyway, good stuff guys. I appreciate all the sentiments on our horseys.
Speaking of thatā¦Iām not riding anything still. Just been watching. Iām up and plan on staying there till a real good opportunity comes.
Iāve been thinking about:
EURāsomething big to come down the pike tomorrow.
GBPāwaiting and waiting for a turn around.
USDāwatching the USdollar index just continue on up. Strongest Major.
AUDākill it even more with a good reading on their GDP.
JPYābeing crushed by everyone. Waiting for more punishment to come their way.
Iām starting to like the idea of getting on the band wagon for an underdog, moreso than an already strong currency to continue. Well, as stated before, particularly the GBP. For as strong as they were, and to dip down as they have, there will be so much more pips to take that way than a runaway currency (USD, or AUD). The reason is just that I have seen that those at the top just donāt stay up there for a long period of time MORESO than the change of strengths. Hope you can understand what I mean by that. In my stats I see those at the top always eventually come back down. And since the GBP was way up there, then fall from grace, it just seems like they can climb right back up there.
Thatās just statistically speaking. I know very well that weāre having to talk about fundamentals also and that has a huge impact on our market.
So, Iām just shooting out (once again) my angle of the sentiments involved. I guess it would be called statistically speaking.
Thanks for listening. And I guess itās all about taking a good opportunity.
Mike
Hey guys.
As I gander at the big picture from the beginning of the day (Asia, London so far) looks like the Comms are staging a comeback. Looking like the 3rd day will go back to the Comms. The only thing that can stop them is what will happen during US session. Would have to be something big for the Majors to over take the momentum the Comms have so far today.
Mike
This is a very busy week and one that requires a lot of faith and confidence in the longer term trend.
Firstly my USDNOK: It is my first time too! I took a very small profit out of my first unit. Its a swing trade, Iām planning on keeping it anywhere from 5 days to 3 months (the longer the trade goes the more good at has been for me) depending on the mechanical exit signal I use.
I will wait for Peterma to tell us more but I think the vote of independence will be a non event. Simply because the vote is still no, I do not see why GBP would be affected even if the result is to noās favor by 50.01% So I think they are nice buying opportunities, but not just yet. However this puts me in a very difficult position as I can see some trade possibilities materializing but donāt feel confident enough about them
Here are some:
[B]GBPCHF[/B]: [I]long[/I] FE said he has an opinion on this but is yet to share it I think. The pair is closing in on our ideal level of 1.50642(38.2retracement)! We know the SNB are/will interfere. But with the vote looming could we possibly get a 50% retracement?
[B]AUDUSD[/B] [I]short[/I] Is gaining again and proving its resilience. Iām hoping to sell AUDUSD at 0.94. It was the safest trade this year. Just as reliable as the 1.7 level in GBPUSD. However with AUD so strong USD weakness apparent, can we expect 0.945/0.95?
[B]EURGBP[/B] [I]short[/I] Is approaching the 55 day high of 0.80348 which would be a great place to sell. But again Iām not sure with the vote looming and I have to say Iām very concerned about the upcoming ECB meeting, even if the strength is short-term as the majority of us think.
[B]GBPUSD[/B] [I]long[/I]This is a very early call but I wanted to share it now just out of its audacity. Remember the time when GBPUSD was making a huge upward move since 2013? well we are 180 pips away from reaching the 38.2 retracement of that move.
[B]USDCHF[/B] [I]short[/I] On the weekly chart, last weekās inverted hammer had the highest tick volume of the month, usually a sign of selling by market makers.
[B]EURNZD[/B] [I]short[/I] We are closing in on the 1.58962, it is the 55-day high which happens to be the exact 61.8 retracement of a weekly-chart downward move that started June 2. Technically its a perfect setup, yet Iām very concerned about the fundamentals on both sides.
[B]GBPCAD[/B] [I]long[/I] Is right now at the 55-day low, actually its a 6-month low. Normally I buy that with confidence but fundamentals have me scared.
[B]NZDCHF[/B] [I]buy[/I] The 0.761 level (30 pips away) is a 55-day low, which happens to also be a 38.2 retracement on the weekly chart of the huge upward move started since the end of 2014.
So you can see there are a wealth of opportunities based on the daily and weekly chart, I didnāt even touch the 4H and 1H timeframes.
FE, He He, Iām back on my own ground now, GBP/USD long for a scalp.
Pesky Eur/Gbp is putting a lid on GBP, if you happen to make any more calls - maybe to Angela, tell her that QE is the greatest thing that could now happen the Euro Zone.
Obviously its too early to be sure of what Iām about to say, but this USDNOK looks like some sort of hedge to the US dollar. Yesterday it was down when the dollar did relatively well. Today the dollar is getting hammered yet the pair is roaring higher!
Hi guys,
Peter,
Mrs. Merkel said it is quite a busy week and you are welcome tomorrow in Wales to discuss the current issues with the other Prime Ministers! I just told her you are well known as āpetermaā. So that is how you should look yourself in the guestbook.
Philip,
I like your trade setups. It is technial, which is good in this choppy market in these tough days. I would even say that for me it is one of the few times when I think technical analysis can be more effective than our fundamental view. And as here we are sentimental/fundamental traders, it might be good to try some of your setups. I am stuck with GBP/CHF, my only bad trade. I do not want to exit, try to get a clear view in this chaos there. I wait some days. Besides shorting USD all yout trades good look to me.
Guys, tomorrow are two statements and NFP Report. And I will not be around. Pay attention, make pips and only trade the right direction! I try to be short tomorrow night or Friday night only to check the thread.
Good luck and good trades
Philip, the Scottish vote, itās been on the cards this past couple of years, I figure that the major players are counting on a No vote insofar that the status quo will remain. There was talk yesterday of the vote being the factor in traders minds and causing GBP to fall, though sometimes I guess that it takes only one source, often Reuters, to start such a rumour, then momentum kicks in.
The main influence on GBP is that pesky EUR/GBP, causing GBP selling. I went in long on GBP on the premise that services pmi would be better than exp - but I was suspicious of the momentum, so am small.
Iāll watch EUR/GBP, now that it has reached last weekās pivot point, it has also firmly closed that little gap from 7985 down to 7975 - who would have thought that possible in 2 days?
Anyways, tomorrow GBP/USD may take over the driverās seat, if that happens then I may add in a little - maybe the Asian traders will kick start things - weāll see.
BTW this weekās weekly pivot is lower again for the 7th week in a row on GBP/USD - it is not common to get such a run on momentum, but it did it happen on the way up - in April past - just thought Iād throw that in ( lol - trying to convince myself of a reversal)
Headline today:[B]UK recovery stronger than thought, official data shows[/B]
UK GDP has been upgraded yet again, they had forgotten to include the numbers from illegal drugs and prostitution.
Glad Iām long GBP.
BBC News - UK recovery stronger than thought, official data shows
Hi Peter,
your wisdom is great! I never knew that prostitution can affect GDP that much. Reading headlines in CNN all important news are unfortunately about wars.
Except one! And in this field as I see you have good knowledge, can you please tell us how this last news can affect US GDP?:
How celebritiesā nude photos get leaked - Sep. 1, 2014
Thanks,
FE
Hmmmā¦ I will have to sleep on this one
Hi guys.
Here we go.
Monday:////////Tuesday//////////Wednesday//////
NZD: +7 -0 0//USD: +5 -0 0//AUD: +7 -0 0
GBP: +5 -1 1//EUR: +5 -0 2//JPY : +4 -1 2
EUR: +1 -1 5//CHF: +5 -0 2//CAD: +4 -1 2
CAD: +1 -2 4//CAD: +3 -3 1//NZD: +3 -1 3
AUD: +1 -2 4//AUD: +3 -3 1//CHF: +2 -3 2
USD: +1 -2 4//JPY : +2 -5 0//EUR: +2 -4 1
CHF: +1 -2 4//GBP: +1 -6 0//USD: +0 -6 1
JPY: +0 -7 0//NZD: +0 -7 0//GBP: +0 -6 1
Comms took over. +12.
Monday: C +5
Tuesday: M +7
Wednesday: C +12
Majors vs. Comms (today)
AUD: +5 -0 0
JPY : +0 -1 2
CAD: +4 -0 1
NZD: +3 -0 1
CHF: +0 -2 1
EUR: +0 -3 0
USD: +0 -3 0
GBP: +0 -3 0
Notes:
Comms only down against in-house. Not a Major.
JPY strongest Major today. Down only against AUD. Even against the other 2.
Majors not up on anybody today.
Ok guys. Read 'em and weep.
Well, if itās gonna go to the Majors this week, thereās gonna have to be some fireworks. Hey, the Majors have been known to take the last 2 days of the week, easily.
See ya on the other side.
Mike