Hi guys,
the power of working together brings sometimes such a perspective that one would never thought. I checked my trading journal on what rookie said. I recognized that my USD trades are running better than crosses. The last time I closed a USD trade with a loss was 1st of August. Now, comparing the amount of trades I made that is not bad. I like trading crosses, as they give great setups and more possibilities. I also like how Philip decided his cross ideas I will follow them. Still, it can be that we can make success easier as rookie also said with USD pairs. At the very same time we should not forget that USD was easy to trade lately. If we are honest, it was not easy to lose money in the last times with USD. We just had to go long with it Conclusion: I like trading crosses and get good setups but I might try it in a way that position sizes will be larger for USD pairs.
I do think though that we can use the COT Index for crosses, others use them too, so it is possible. Also we should remember (rookie) that we need the crosses. Once USD is choppy or there is no clear trend, we have to trade crosses. I like your idea actually but we cannot close out the good cross opportunities.
Rookie, why do you say that AUD and EUR are in an extreme? I looked at the 3 years data and did not see any extreme points.
Thanks Philip for the chart, now I understand it a lot more. I just like to see such things, it is way easier to understand. If I understand the strategy right, based on the chart you posted, when you entered the trade, the exit was on the lowest low; because it was two bars under the current bar. As price moved up you trailed your stop to the current SL.
Flows, the first picture and explanation makes sense. It could have bounced back from the SMA. Also you reached COT index extreme. So I can accept it as a valid trade like I said before. I just do not know if we had enough patience to sit through the whole Aussie rise last month! However as it is a long-term strategy I guess it is ok. And after all, the signal was a winner as AUD/USD is heading down. The second chart I do not like that much. EMA is not in any description of the system, I usually do not use it and I do not want to mix something completely new. If you can use it great than ok use it, I am not so familiar and do not want to mess it up. Actually the system has nothing to do with chart formations as no one knows what kind of charts we use. Of course being fit with candlestick helps no matter what your strategy is I would continue your first posted picture maybe on other pairs and see if you find something. We could also discuss those and evaluate how good the signals were.
As I see I am in contradiction in this issue with Philip. I see a valid signal, he doesnāt. Can be the broker, maybe not. It would be important to clear for the future.
Flows, we discussed in the last time 2 strategies from two books. The currency cross COT Index comes from:
āThe Commitments of Traders Bible ā Stephen Brieseā
However as I wrote, this strategy is very short in the book (half a page).
The system that you analyze now comes from:
āTrade Stocks & Commodities with the Insiders ā Larry Williamsā
So rookie, in your last post I actually see you are positive about crosses Yes, Jackās analysis are great but for sure he has a lot longer history than we have. It takes time to make such analysis. I think it is too demanding for us at the moment, sticking to the basic, being COT masters would be enough for me in the beginning. Then such great analysis could come later on