Hey guys…
It was late. I apologize. I will do as you say FE… I was thinking for a second they must have halted the website with an intention as they saw we were up to something here
The commdolls
AUD, CAD and NZD
Non commercials: Specs have reduced their longs across the board. AUD net position /longs/ has seen a decrease since its most recent peak on 2nd of Sep for the first time net position /longs/ dipping to a low of 41229 lower than a reading the week prior 26th Aug when AUD was headed on an upward move /net position steady increase/. As for NZD nothing much has changed since we did our last weeks report, specs have once again reduced their net position /longs/ for the 7th consecutive week. However CAD net position /longs/ have seen an increase once again for the 3rd consecutive week.
Specs are clearly bearish on NZD however with AUD and CAD they keep sending mixed signals and making it hard for us to determine the bias. But if we look at AUD fundamentals for instance and its recent job report the initial hype was good with better than expected reading however details later revealed that majority of the jobs were part time. Australian job market may keep dissapointing until non mining sectors pick up, slowdown in mining sector leads to economic slowdown in return that will have a negative impact on labour market , GDP - trade deficits - AUD will worth less opposed to other currencies. Not to mention Stevens has been worried about strong AUD - that doesn’t have solid economic ground to stand on - on the foreign exchange market. He wants weak AUD that should make exports cheaper and making australian products more affordable and competitive aboard therefore that should in the long term help grow the economy - specially the non mining sector.
I don’t have much collected on CAD but if you guys read jack’s commentary that FE posted the link here, you’ll get an idea - long term bias for CAD bearish.
Commercials: Commercials however have increased their longs and net position /shorts/ across the board. There was also a price level decrease on AUD and NZD. Commercials have been buying commdolls on and off there was some sell offs during rallies. We should expect commercials to keep buying the commdolls as they’re expected to dip lower in the medium to long term. However we shouldn’t ignore the extremes.
The majors
EUR and GBP
Non commercials: Specs have reduced their longs and net position /shorts/ on EUR and increased their longs and net position /longs/ on GBP. Specs EUR net position /shorts/ has been increasing steady since it turned from positive to negative on 13th of May’14 with some fluctuation in between. Let me remind you guys that while the week prior last weeks reading that came out at -161423 was the highest since 2013 Sep it was far from 4 year extreme -214418. Last week we saw some decrease in net position on EUR the figure came down to -157505.
Specs are still somewhat bearish on EUR with net negative readings. However the pound had a big jump specs have increased their net position /longs/ to 26727 from 9448 and it has been fluctuating without clear direction for the past 5 weeks. If we look at last weeks readings alone no doubt specs are bullish on pound. However lets not forget that specs have been indecisive on pound for 5 weeks, only a week of positive reading /big jump/ shouldn’t be conclusive and we should look for more clues to support this.
Commercials: Commercials on the other hand have increased their longs on both EUR and pound. However there wasn’t much change on EUR net position /longs/. At least we can be sure while they may not be buying euro as they did for the past few weeks they haven’t started selling them off yet. We should blend this with specs reading and go from there guys… As for pound however commercials have increased their net position /longs/ they sold off some of their pound longs while buying some back at the same time.
Safe havens
CHF and JPY
Non commercials: Specs have increased their longs on both CHF and JPY. Specs have reduced their net position /shorts/ on yen after 4 weeks of consecutive increase. And added on their CHF net position /shorts/ for the second consecutive week. Specs stance on franc and yen again sends mixed signal, but as there’s more sellers of yen and franc lets conclude that the bias is more bearish than neutral.
Commercials: Commercials have bought more franc increasing their longs and net position /longs/ and sold some of their yen longs with decrease in yen net position /longs/. Blending the two as commercials are still buying CHF as price moves further down and specs bearish bias with net negative readings we can therefore conclude CHF bias - bearish.
Conclusion
AUD - bearish
NZD - bearish
CAD - bullish *but beware
EUR - bearish /lets not forget about commercials extremes/
GBP - bullish *but beware
CHF - bearish
JPY - bearish /lets not forget about commercials extremes/
There’s also something I wanted to highlight to you guys if you look at the bottom of the table you’ll see CRB and Dollar index attached while both had closed with down figures if we look at previous figures CRB index has been decreasing for the 3rd consecutive week dipping to a low of 281.90 last fridays close from 292.75 how it was 3 weeks prior. So is the daily range , open and close. This should give us a clue more confirmation on top of what we already have on commdolls.
Conversely dollar index has been climbing up to a high of 84.2250 last fridays close from 82.7360. Its all 3 weeks worth of data guys.