Yes Flows, you’ll get it here - under ICE Futures US - just keep scrolling down to USDX.
Commitments of Traders - CFTC
Ah, thank you Peter. My mistake, I missed that. Additionally, I saw double bottoms on XAUUSD last week (I always use gold price to gauge the strength of USD). Good luck for the next week guys!! I’m sticking with cable :15:
Wouldn’t we want to fade those trades?
Hi Philip,
something important in the beginning of post: 1194, did you mean there is a reversal for JPY (which would mean JPY strength) or retracement for JPY (which means further on weakness). In your sentence you wrote reversal but it makes for me only sense that you also buy GBP/JPY if you meant to say retracement. I really like the setups, you chose the weak currencies and split them between USD and GBP for diversification. My trades are very USD dependent. I do the same! All I have to decide if I do it like do or if I buy GBP and USD vs. all the weak currencies. Two questions: you wrote 4 trade setups from system, still you trade only two. Why? Because of the mentioned diversification? The other: why don’t you trade NZD short? That is the only currency I am missing on the short side. I also liked how you described in the end of the post why you did not find USD in the analysis (because the system did not show MA signal).
If you manage it Philip, give please at the end of the month your seasonality analysis. Thanks.
One last thing, in your post 1204 I think you wrote exactly what Peter suggests (you even quoted it). When he said any pullback is good for buying; he meant buying USD and not going long on the EUR/USD pair. So answering your question, yes, Peter also wants to fade the move. I am not Peter but I hope it is ok to answer this question. And do not worry Philip, I am on your side for fading the moves so just always think someone is in the market with you!
Hi Mike,
as always I talk to you. Just like with Philip, I am on the same opinion with you too. You are right, we have some small differences in our ranking but no major. I do not think that 1 rank up or down means too much. What is high by you is high by me and what is low by you is low by me. Edge is coming to our side. The surprise is for me that the whole week we talked about weak JPY and it turns out they are not as week at all as we thought. Might have to do something with the bombing in Syria and the new sanctions between EU and Russia.
Speaking about your 200 pip strategy, you have the most wisdom. You learn from the mistake of ours and when the system rocks you take the pips! This takes a lot of discipline and you deserve those pips. I think it is not possible for Philip or for myself. We can only learn by doing and looking at our mistakes. If we see a chance we just have to jump in. Rookie and Peter are a bit more conservative and You and Flows are very disciplined to master the process first, like it is written in books.
Hi Peter,
it is a pitty the person did not write anything on his USD index analysis (post 1197). Well then if we take into account that COT is not a timing indicator, we might have some time still. BTW in your experience, how long is usually a bearish/bullish market for the currencies? I am not experienced enough to say if it lasts for a year, half a year or even 2-3 years.
Although you should not worry that much that someone loses money on forex because of bad analysis from you, I do believe there is a chance do ruined Mikes marriage. If he sees your first link in post 1198, then there is no place for a woman anymore. Can I use currencies in these charts? I found gold but no currencies.
Hi flows,
actually Peter is the expert on open interest, indexes and all tough topics so I am sure he will highlight you soon some USDX insights. All I can say, you can maybe find USDX also at currencies but I would not use it as the other indexes are also listed there. Although before I say something wrong I leave this topic for the Master. Ok, I see Peter already posted the answer.
Hi Rookie,
sorry buddy, no special thoughts for you this time. As soon as you post your work, I do my best to give you some on questions on it though.
All of you,
as Peter said the thread is good to discuss things. We all agreed that USD is still very strong but we have to pay attention for a reversal. We are bullish but ready to change the bias. I do think we have the edge and once we arrive so when they write in the next book: “Although you have to fade small specs there was a thread where the participants proved the opposite and…”
In terms of JPY, I’m just wary of the possibility of a retracement after such a strong decline. But the rational side of me tells me that the system should detect that retracement so I shouldn’t be wary.
You have no idea how much I want to short NZD. But I only mentioned trade signals that resulted from the system I shared earlier this week “counter-trending with the trend.” On the 1 hour chart on my broker, I have buy signals for GBPCHF and GBPJPY. But I do not have a sell signal for NZDUSD.
I will report on seasonality, a review of September and a preview of October, on October 1. Thanks for clearing up Peterma’s post, I was more under the impression he was waiting for a reversl/pullback in USD similar to GBP.
Flows, yes I was watching that, Gold could well be the signal on Mon and Tue for any USD pullback.
The thing about the usdx and cot is the low volume. Many of the retail brokers offer it, but usually at bad spreads.
Some guys use it as a hedge, many others simply use it as an indicator, especially for EUR/USD and USD/JPY.
The COT numbers are often the numbers for EUR/USD, maybe combined with JPY, though I seldom bother - if USD is strong it will rise against them all anyway so the biggie in EUR does the trick.
So Mon morning, first up will be the Gold 
Hi guys,
although Williams and Briese talk a lot about OI, we tend to completely forget it in our analysis. If you look at the charts (try to find one where you see OI and the net positions at the same time) you can observe it great that big reversals are happening when commercials are on an extreme position and at the same time we also see an OI extreme. If you guys check USD/JPY and EUR/USD weekly or daily charts for the last couple of years, it can be observed greatly how they occur at the same time. This lines up what Peter was saying, that USD has still to go, maybe until the mentioned 1.2000 exchange rate. It looks like it fits perfect with the timing until we also reach the OI and net positions extreme. We will make our observations every week and try to exactly identify the time and event which will turn the market. That would be something.
And one more important thing at OI. If you look back at the extremes some years ago, the extreme positions for OI and for the net positions were smaller numbers than nowadays. This means the very extreme this time might be also a bit higher than it was the last time.
It is always good to repeat our knowledge so I post now again what Williams wrote about OI:
The Breakthrough (getting inside volume and open interest)
While most people understand that stocks move due to volume, many stocks players are not familiar with one of the major differences between stocks and commodities. This difference is open interest (OI). Unlike stocks, this is a zero-sum game. For every dollar won, a dollar is lost.
In the stock market a company issues a certain number of shares (float), and that’t it - there are no more shares to trade. In commodities there is no finite number of contracts or float. It is open ended. As long as a new buyer comes in and there is a new seller, OI will increase. At times there may be more volume (i.e. contracts traded) than total OI. Open interest applies primarily to the futures market.
A key point on open interest
The more contracts open, the larger the interest in the market has become. Thus an increase in OI is saying that someone is very excited about what the market is doing - going up or down. I think of OI as participation or interest in a market, and know that when OI is increasin someone thinks the current trend is valid. They are climbing on board that price trend.
A large OI tells us, for the most part, that the crowd or masses are in the marketplace, and they are usually found to be wrong. When OI is very low, the public has no interest in the market - it’s a pure commercial market. Usually this is where major up moves begin, when the public has no appetite to be buyers. Never take another man’s bet. He wouldn’t offer it to you if he wasn’t thinking that he knew something you didn’t.
Open interest as a timing or entry tool
Low OI means that the public and funds have lost interest in this particular market. Since I live and die by the notion the public is wrong, the fact that the public is not intrested in a market means I should be.
While at times OI does not call the exact low, we can still pretty much rest assured that almost all lows will come hand in glove with this important market indication.
Let’s look at a few more markets to drive home this point, and discuss what markets this does not work in - notably stock index futures. The financial markets have a much different OI pattern as there is no physical crop of stocks or British pounds to bring to the marketplace, so the interest in the market is synthetic and involves a great deal of arbitrage beteen markets. This accounts for spikes in OI close to delivery, with a large buildup of OI, then a sharp drop-off as the new contract begins trading.
Sells in silver
High OI levels are associated with market peaks and low levels with market bottoms.
Buying and selling
The lesson is that OI can be very helpful to us. Think of it as the masses, the crowd. Markets by their very nature cannot have everyone buying the lows and selling the highs. However, the opposite, buying the highs and selling the lows, is ture. So look for times when there is no OI if you want to find a market that is going to get really interesting.
→ this was a very interesting chapter but I have to be very carefull. It was the first time when the examples of the COT report showed different conclusions on OI in financial instruments, commodities or stock. The interpretation of OI in these different markets have to be based on the actual market type and not as a common analysis type.
Opening Up on Open Interest
The question is not if open interest (OI) is increasing or decreasing, but who is causing the change - weak hands like the public or strong hands like the commercials? That’s the question that need to be answered. So what if prices are rallying in a nice uptrend. The tellling issue is whether a concomitant increase in OI is being caused by the public adding long positions while the commercials are decreasing their longs or the commercials adding longs while the public is doing the selling.It’s not so much OI that controls the market as it is who (which side or team) is controlling OI.
Looking inside OI tells us so much more than looking at just OI and price.
Morning guys hope you’re all having a great weekend…
Thanks Peter for the links I’ll make sure to check them looks promising intermarket influence :33:
Sorry for late reply Philip, I had to think and do some reading prior responding to your questions as I felt I was short of knowledge. It’s interesting that you see AUD and NZD diverging but this is how I see it… both of these countries had done well during and after the global financial crisis and do share a few similarities its reliance on China and net exporter of commodities. Now as global commodity price falls and China slows down there will be downward pressure on both AUD and NZD in terms of economic growth and strong exchange rate sure isn’t making things any easier. In order to enhance its competitive edge as commodity demand falls and supply increases they will have to reduce their price of commodities for export. To do so, the exchange rate plays a critical part. For any countries that are net exporter to be competent they’ll need to play on price to a certain degree of course. Look at China for instance , they have long been a manufacturing powerhouse net exporter of pretty much everything and to maintain its competitive edge in the global market the government have been controlling the value of its currency yuan by direct intervention making its exports cheaper.
Same goes for these two countries though their exports are not as much as China they’re in a way fundamentally in a very similar position. After global financial crisis there must have been huge influx of capital into Australia and New Zealand from elsewhere like the US or EU. Thus all of these factors inevitably lifted AUD and NZD value to go up against dollar. Now they need a weak currency and its very critical I think to stabilize the economy. From what I’ve been reading both RBA Stevens and RBNZ have been talking of need for a weak currency, and how strong exchange rate was standing in the way of economic stabilization and growth. Both of these have broken down key areas of support and are trending lower against dollar now. I think it will only be a matter of time before they hike rates, I don’t necessarily see it as divergence as both are at a similar position one may be slightly ahead of the other, take overheated housing market for instance due to record low interest rate NZ was the first to deal with such scenario and now we’re seeing similar situation in Australia. If dairy export start picking up due to lower exchange rate NZ might be the first to hike rates they have been on the regimen of hiking rates anyways before even Australia. I think they’re playing it smart, very smart. We’ll have to watch them closely.
And on the change of central bank governor there’s probably going to be some uncertainty arising, specs/investors might shy away from taking any longs/shorts until things settle but I don’t assume the effect to be any more drastic until they make significant changes in its central bank policy as regards to stimulus. Its former now to be retired governor was seen to be keen on applying stimulus whenever things seem to have slowdown, a recent targeted stimulus so they call billions of $ injected was into few banks that were supposed to be used for issuing loans to sectors that were stagnant for instance property market /heavy consumers of iron ore/ caused a temporary rally in commodity currencies CRB index. But only time will tell its effect in the long run. There’s two person that are in consideration for the next governor and one is said to have a greater understanding and knowledge of interconnection of markets and seen to favor more efficient way of handling economic slow downs than just simply approving another stimulus package. So we’ll see what happens on that note.
I’ll be back
COT report date: 23 Sep 2014
Lets get to work :44:
The commdolls
AUD, NZD and CAD
Non commercials: Specs once again reduced their net position /longs/ on both AUD and CAD for the 4th and 3rd consecutive week very close to turn to net negative from net positive. We also saw decrease in longs on both AUD and CAD last tuesday. As for NZD since a huge fall in net position /longs/ prior the election on 16th Sep specs have added a bit on to their net position /longs/. Specs outlook on AUD and CAD is bearish and neutral/bearish on NZD.
Commercials: There was a turnaround in net positions on AUD from net negative to net positive and on NZD from net positive to net negative. Commercials are now net buyers of AUD /bearish/ and CAD /bearish/ adding more to their net position /longs/. However commercials activity on NZD have been rather hard to read. But they showed slightly bullish sentiment on NZD last tuesday as they were net sellers on NZD. AUD down from 0.9148 to 0.8963, CAD up from 1.1028 to 1.1049, NZD down from 0.8216 to 0.8145 against dollar as of last tuesday.
The majors
EUR and GBP
Non commercials: Specs net position changed from positive to negative on 16th Sep and last week specs have reduced their net position /shorts/ on GBP. Specs have increased their EUR net position /shorts/ from -137,141 to -141,965 far from 4 year short extreme. Specs outlook on EUR is bearish and neutral/slightly bullish on GBP.
Commercials: Commercials have been net buyers of GBP for the 2nd consecutive week now since they changed their net position from negative to positive on 16th Sep bearish reading. Last tuesday commercials sold off some -2531 from their net longs with majority holding longs. On the other hand commercials have been net buyers of EUR for a while now and they increased their net position /longs/ last tuesday. GBP up from 1.6153 to 1.6308 and EUR down from 1.2908 to 1.2897 as of last tuesday against dollar.
Safe havens
JPY and CHF
Non commercials: Specs have increased their net position /shorts/ on both JPY and CHF for the 2nd consecutive week. And longs have seen some decrease as well both still not quite close to all time extreme shorts.
Commercials: Commercials have been net buyers of JPY for a while with some sell offs in between last week however they increased their net position /longs/ bearish reading. Same goes for franc but commercials have been selling some their longs for the 2nd consecutive week now. However last weeks CHF net position /longs/ decreased by -60 only slightly bullish reading. JPY up from 106.68 to 107.953 , CHF up from 0.9360 to 0.9371 against dollar as of last tuesday.
Conclusion
AUD - bearish
CAD - bearish
NZD - neutral
EUR - bearish
GBP - neutral to slightly bullish
JPY - bearish
CHF - bearish
That is against dollar just a reminder :-).
If you’ve noticed something, there was divergence on CAD, GBP, JPY and CHF. What I mean by divergence is that take CAD for example specs was bearish and so were commercials as they’ve been net buyers /bearish reading/ however CAD managed to climb up from 1.1028 to 1.1049. Same can be said on GBP, JPY and CHF. Hows that so ?
On last thing if you guys have noticed I tried to steer clear of throwing any fundamental remarks this time and I’m planning to keep doing my report this way as I’m already posting fundamental write ups on individual or selective group of countries separately. I find this easier to read and more true to its origin after all its a COT report :13:
Hi Rookie,
I can’t say much since I too am still learning and observing, but from what I see, this is where the small traders take control. And this is where I think we need to exercise caution. Due to their relatively small positions, small traders can get in and out quickly to provide liquidity. Depending on the perceived risk, large traders may either join up or take the other side of the trade. This is just a hypothesis from my observation, maybe Peter and FE can provide better explanations.
This one’s for FE… just few remarks…
On JPY even if the majority of specs are bearish I see yen plunging further down especially given the fundamentals quote from Mike’s article ‘their saving grace current account is at deficit now’ with mounting debt and economy contracting I see nothing but downfall for yen. As we don’t have volumes that are traded but only positions on COT, there’s still more room to the downside for yen. But what I’m concerned about more is the divergence that I talked earlier is there going to be a reversal ? What does that divergence mean ? Or should we just look it as a correction a better price to short yen ? In this scenario I think we should start thinking how much emphasis or weight should we put on fundamentals and COT report respectively and go from there. It’s not going to be an easy task but I’m in favor of fundamental views than COT bias. The reasoning is simple japan has been in a decade long deflationary cycle with mounting debt and current account ‘saving grace’ at deficit the policy makers seem to have thought there’s no better way than to raise consumption tax that will eventually prolong the deflationary cycle. How long will it take for Japans economy to recover ? I think its going to be a while. A long while. There’s probably going to be some speculative yen rally in between but I’ll be seeing it more of as a correction than anything solid until Japan starts producing better economic indicators.
And on your strong to weak currency ranking I’m wondering why JPY is up there and AUD and NZD down at the bottom. I do have a differing view on your ranking FE… AUD and NZD is at a lot better position fundamentally speaking than JPY I think in fact see yen down at the bottom and AUD and NZD right after CAD before CHF.
Here’s some visuals … pretty much sums it all up.
I wish they had a table like this on AUD and NZD I’m sure it would have looked slightly better than pounds.
As for my trade setups I’m going short with AUDUSD, EURUSD , EURGBP and GBPJPY long. Thanks Philip for the signals!!
Hi rookie and flows,
I agree with the findings of posts 1210 to 1212. Besides USD we only see GBP strength. Sorry guys that is all to write here as I prepare myself for a battle vs. post 1213 and 1214. It makes me happy that rookie raised questions so I have to of course answer
FE
Hi Rookie,
so lets try to figure out what is going on out there First of all, thanks for the article and tables! I do not have to look at them though to believe you as I see the situation just like you for economic fundamentals. And as far as we say that JPY, AUD and NZD are all bearish vs. USD and GBP; I do not think ranking is very important. It becomes important if you trade NZDJPY or AUDJPY, I was thinking of the second setup but did not trade it and no one of us have these setups so I think it is not so important which is weaker. However as you said, we have some very different views.
Where is the currency going? Well, hell I do not know! I just try to figure it out like all of us! However there was a point in your analysis which I think is not correct and that one I want to highlight and discuss. [I]I would also like to involve Peter as two of you sentences is questions the pillars of our strategy and “Trading based on Market Sentiment” thread so of course I have to jump in to stop this murder! You wrote[/I]:
[B]In this scenario I think we should start thinking how much emphasis or weight should we put on fundamentals and COT report respectively and go from there. It’s not going to be an easy task but I’m in favor of fundamental views than COT bias.[/B]
As I said I do not know where the currencies are heading but I do believe this is a false statement. I do devide the analysis into three groups, two analysis is short but very important to separate and tread them please very carefully. As you said once, I also like if we advance and I hope you can learn something new, even if the currency outcome will favor you!
Ready for a discussion and for the challenge? The first round is just about to begin!
[I]The current state of Japan and JPY presented by FE vs. Dr. Rookie’s opinion, a.k.a. professional of fundamentals[/I]
[B]Economic factors[/B]
Here are the fist problems between our views. Please keep in mind that my ranking is purely based on the currency strength and has nothing to do with economics. I think you put it a bit in to a false perspective. I have never said that New Zealand economy or Australian is weaker than Japanese economy. That is not a question. Either Japanese or EU is the weakest economy for sure. I would never question that. This statement seems obvious but very important to make it clear for the further analysis. It has a lot to do with your view of questioning fundamentals vs. sentiment. I am about trying to change your mind in this analysis for the sentimental side of course.
[B]Different bull and bear markets for CFDs and currencies[/B]
What does this have to do with our outlook? A lot, even if it surprises all of you. If you look at major bull and bear markets for stocks, commodities or currencies they all differ. The point here, if we look for example gold or silver or many other agricultural commodities, there can be bull and bear markets for a very extended period of time. Maybe even 5-7 years with some retracements. But in the forex market? Well that is very very very hard to imagine. I cannot close out anything in this business but that would be something to see! Here are two examples to make my view clear. For the simplicity we say crude oil has the value of $100 and EUR/USD 1.2500. Now what is more difficult from the two scenarios: A, Crude oil reaching $50 down or $200 on up, or B, EUR/USD reaching 0.6250 or 2.5000 on the upside? I have no idea where the currencies are going to be 10-15 years (maybe Euro will not even exist) but in the current situation a 50% rise or fall would be surprise for crude oil and EUR too, but for EUR almost impossible. Looking at some commodities charts, gold reached $1800 some year ago and was also trading at $400 levels in 2004. This shows us how different the commodities and forex market life cycles are. The gold bull market lasted for a very long time before it started a reversal.
Now why is this important for us? CFD trading is based on demand and supply why forex is more on fundamentals I think (it was also in the Forex Ninja article some weeks ago). This puts everything into perspective when you look at the COT report. It just tells everything why this single tool is more important than all the fundamentals in the world.
[B]The currency market[/B]
If we have the same view on the economies of JPY, NZD and AUD why do we have different view on the currency market? Well there is a reason why I am so uncomfortable to trade JPY and why I missed most of the move. I already see it was too early to get back from the market and I try to make some pips. I think there is still a bit downtrend, like the case with EUR, but it can be shorter downtrend than the AUD or NZD fall.
Why is that? I think the main difference in our view is that you think that fundamentals move the market and I think sentiment moves the market. Lets see an example. According to fundamentals USD should go down when news come out bad and go up when news come out good. [I]This is not the case. Our news strategy is based on going USD long on the good news, however we do not go short if the news are bad![/I] We wait in this second case and fade the moves. This shows as that fundamentals are short lived and we fade the moves, still buying USD after weak news. The sentiment is more important. As we stated very often, if there is no one to sell, the currency cannot go down. So it goes up like it is with USD now.
However how long can it go down??? That is the question. As JPY is losing very fast and heading to extreme points who should to push it more down? [I]We have to see the main difference here between the economic and forex world as they diverge at this point. [/I] Commodities can fall further on but forex not so easily. If you “destroy” a currency and it reaches extreme levels the game will change.
Now comes the punch for the sentimental analysis:
I will use an example to explain the situation: lets say JPY falls to 115.00 and we are an abosolute extreme level for JPY. According to you fundamentals show JPY weakness and JPY falls, according to me COT is on extreme and JPY rises. Here is how it works as far as I think: there is no one on the market to see JPY as everyone sold all they had. There is just no way down. None! Kein! Nada! Nyet! Nincs! It has to turn. But how is the story looking like if JPY is weak, USD is strong? How can JPY rise? Is it possible? [B]Of course it is and I tell you what happens. Exactly the opposite what now happens. What is even better: as we know how it happens we will even make many pips on it![/B] The very weak Japanese economy brings out a neutral to slightly bullish economic news, the JPY gets stronger and holds to its win. The next move is a strong USD news. USD gets stronger but it cannot hold on as there is still no one to buy it, so the move will be faded just like it is the opposite direction now. Do you see the main difference? Even if the economy of Japan is weak, according to others and current news, the sentiment will only take on the positive news and for the USD the sentiment will only care about the bad news. It is not that relevant how good the economy is doing. The question is how good it is compared to the COT report. For AUD, NZD the news and fundamentals are very important as they are in the middle of the COT range (I did not check the actual numbers now but I think) and can move either way. But a currency like JPY and EUR can maybe fall some hundreds of pips and that was all. The cycle is just not as it is with commodities with the good and bad outlook. In forex we look at the sentiment and the strength of economies and news are only relative. In a normal time of a longer commodities life cycle we might see 3-4 forex life cycles as they do not change in values 30%-40%-50% as easily as it is with commodities.
As Mike would say: I talked. And to make it sure: it is purely my view, and it can turn out also bad with missing the action completely.
FE
PS: I do see from your analysis you are also a bit bearish on NZD and AUD, but you expect a rate rise. That is in contradiction. Rate hikes can really affect on a huge way forex prices but I do not understand why weak economies should hike their rates as they would just make the currencies stronger what we do not really expect as the policy makers want to have weaker NZD and AUD. This has nothing to do with the above analysis, just wanted to ask
Erh, I think I’m partly to blame for your confusion regarding the divergence, Rookie. Sorry for that. I use the word loosely for things that should’ve happened but turned out didn’t. I think the first time I used the word in this thread was in the post about AUD, where I saw a significant increase in net position, but price failed to make a new high.
Well, so far, the things I learn about divergence are that either price extends to the degree that nullifies the reading or price reverses and validates the divergence. However, after the divergence is validated, price may either continue its course (a reversal occurs) or reverse back (turns out to be just a retracement). Lol, looking back, I would get excited and acted on every divergence I saw, but now I mostly use divergence to prepare a plan B.
Hi guys,
different analysis and different opinions but hat is important looking at all different trade ideas, we do share the same trading ideas and that is the important thing!
Looking at Philips, rookie’s and my point of view we can reduce next week’s trading to 10 paris. We might not take all of them but the setups are basically the same (we are still waiting for the setups from the others).
Here is the mixed and all setups based on us three (rookie and Philip with 4-4 pairs, I might trade more of them:
[B]Long-USD vs: EUR, CHF, JPY, NZD and AUD
Long-GBP vs: EUR, CHF, JPY, NZD and AUD[/B]
[I]Message seems to be clear on our analysis: USD and GBP are the strong ones, EUR, CHF, JPY, NZD and AUD are the weak ones. And as we trade strong vs. weak, the ranking between the many weak currencies does not play an important role.[/I]
Lol, begone temptation! Begone! Sigh… I guess I’ll be trading strong vs strong. Time to look for a range trading system then. Good luck and happy trading guys! 
Wow FE that was a lot to digest and I mean it in a good way of course 
I completely understand what you’re saying there’s no right or wrong its only a matter of perspective. I think I didn’t explain myself clearly when I said how much weight should we put on fundamentals and COT bias /sentiment/ when there’s a divergence. And by divergence I meant the pips how CAD went up when both specs and commercials were bearish. I wanted to put ‘slightly’ in favor of fundamentals than sentiment. I’m not saying one or the other is better but I wanted to raise a question in the case of any divergence which side should we be taking. Although I’ve said there’s no right or wrong , you’re right about sentiment and how they tend to ignore the fundamentals from time to time. Now that I think about it I was trying to look far ahead the bigger picture and I may be was getting a little out of context, but still I stand firmly on my belief that in the long run fundamentals will set the tone for sentiment. It may be a while for sentiment to digest the underlying aspects of economy /what I mean by fundamentals/ and they may even cause a complete turnaround for whatever motives that they have in that regards I do agree with you but eventually I think fundamentals will set the tone. And sentiment will follow. Since COT is few days old, I somehow thought we could use fundamentals as a tool to foresee the future. I think thats what I was going for.
And on AUD and NZD, I am bearish on both of them /specs are bearish I have to be/ but like I said looking far ahead they might come at top sometime in the future like I said they might be playing it smart while US is putting itself under the spotlight. So I’m watching out for them as the ‘underdogs’ I may be wrong only time will tell.