Thanks for your response flows… so you’re sticking with cable all the way ? though our bias is bullish to neutral on GBP, the probabilities of you cable short being a winner is somewhat higher than say you were going the opposite direction. Anyways stick to your principle 
Hey Doc Rookie!
I know your talking to FE about this. But I would like to comment.
We can’t compare apples to oranges. Or in this case technicals to fundamentals.
And you should know by now that I always say “let’s put it into perspective”. That’s my only angle here.
You are making such a good point fundamentally speaking. Regarding the JPY. You are by no means wrong, in any way, shape, or form. But, I think it all has to be compartmentalized.
First off, let’s try to answer this question. The COT report…is this more technical or fundamental oriented? You know, because everything basically will end up on one of the two camps.
We know COT is what the big players are mandated to report. Originating for the purpose of leveling out the playing field, to some degree. And when it comes to the Commercials, we know they are only concerned about hedging their risk in the market. They are the deep pockets. They have a deep understanding of their industry, and have their own network of correspondents up and down the supply chain. Even a lot of what passes as fundamental news originates from them. Basically they have their own reasons for positioning the way they do. And we have the non-comms, (a.k.a. large speculators, hedge funds). All they are in it is for making profit. Their net positions tend to follow consistent patterns, trend-following trading systems. But they are also clever and tricky when it comes to their trading. Their role provides a good balance to the commercial trading. So, I guess we can assume that we have both technical and fundamental elements of the information we get out of the numbers. Comms would be fundamental oriented and Non-Comms would be technical.
But, if you ask me, I think the Comms have more weight to move the market. They can get what they want (price). that is just my opinion
Anyway…when we talk about JPY ranking stronger in comparison (how we have it listed), I think that is just how technically it is laid out. I mean you can’t deny that they have appreciated against the others to some degree. I have it (we all have it on our charts) noted on paper. Last Thursday they were the strongest currency that day, hands down. And I do see that presently they are trending high both long term and short term against NZD. I have them ranging and trending high (long, short term) against AUD. Ranging both long and short against EUR and CHF. Yes, trending low both long and short against USD, GBP, CAD.
Ok, that’s nice. That’s all technical. History that happened.
But, you are coming from the fundamental aspect of it. WHICH IS NEEDED. We absolutely, definitely, positively need to keep this in mind. Also what explains the point of why traders choose them for a safe haven status? That is fundamental thinking also. That’s probably the only reason why they have had any kind of boost lately (geopolitical).
Fundamentally speaking, I agree with you 100%. Technically speaking, no. (Unless I am determining the trending patterns inaccurately on the charts).
So, I am thinking we need your input JUST AS MUCH as with the other side of it. And without your input ([B]which is fundamental strength and weakness[/B]) we simply do not have a complete picture.
Plus, I think that fundamental thinking will span a longer time period than technical. Key point there is comparison.
We need you Doc.
Talk to me.
Mike
Mike your post left me speechless! no exaggeration I think we should ask FE to consider giving you a title :35:
This was an open discussion anyone’s welcome to join in and we need different perspective. I’m so glad that you shared your view on this. I liked how you saw commercials positioning in tune with fundamentals and specs trend followers - technical in nature. And that we do need to have both of these , the blend. And the power will always be with the commercials as they hold bigger stake than anyone else. Once again that was such a good post. Now this raises another question what is sentiment ? Where does it come from , who does it belong to ? Specs ?
Hi Rookie,
Lol, yes. Silly noob things I guess, I just want to know how it feels to be in a ranging market. I’m still learning and I’d like to explore everything about the market. I use small size so that accidents in my exploration wont kill me. I too am slightly bearish on cable, I still hold my sell position from the beginning of last week at 1.6331. Lol, it has been a wild roller coaster ride, but it also teaches me a thing or two about trading psychology.
Hi guys!
Let’s look at [B]possible[/B] catalysts coming up this week. Economic indicators.
Sunday:
USD Bernanke speech. Possible gap up for the USD, before the open?
Monday:
[U]London[/U]—GBP with mortgage approvals, money supply, net lending to individuals.
—EUR with sentiments, confidence, (Germany with CPI).
[U]US[/U]—USD with PCE, home sales, business index.
Tuesday:
[U]Asia[/U]—JPY with unemployment, industrial production, retail trade. NZD business confidence (minor). AUD with credit (minor). JPY housing starts.
[U]London[/U]—EUR (Germany) with retail sales, unemployment. EUR with CPI, unemployment. GBP with GDP.
[U]US[/U]—CAD with GDP. USD with consumer confidence, redbook index.
Wednesday:
[U]Asia[/U]—AUD with man. index, retail sales, commodity index. JPY with man. index. China with man. index.
[U]London[/U]—EUR with GDP, markit man. GBP with markit man.
[U]US[/U]—CAD man. pmi. USD with ISM man. pmi.
Thursday:
[U]Asia[/U]—AUD with trade balance, building permits, annual report. NZD with commodity prices.
[U]London[/U]—GBP with pmi construction. EUR with interest rate decision, press conference.
[U]US[/U]—USD with jobless claims.
Friday:
[U]Asia[/U]—AUD with services index.China with non-man pmi.
[U]London[/U]—EUR with markit services, retail sales. GBP with markit services.
[U]US[/U]—CAD imports/exports trade. USD with NFP, employment data.
The only reason I like to look at this is to see if there will (can) be any game changers. Or any data that will confirm the trends.
From what I see, it looks like there’s a lot of EUR data this week. I wonder which way they will favor? You know, last week the EUR didn’t do too bad, comparatively speaking.
Undoubtedly it is a Major weighted data week. The GBP will have opportunities also, if they plan on climbing.
And, guys, I think we should be watching what the USD does on the approach to Friday.
You haven’t shared your setups yet Mike what are you looking to trade next week ?
I’m late on GBPJPY but it looks very promising broke out of the range I think pound just might resume trending higher against yen. As for EURGBP I’m not sure from technical point of view I don’t think I’ll trade this pair.
Yet another NFP coming this friday , weeks do go faster in trading I wonder what number we’ll get on that but I do feel its going to be a better reading than the last time I might short NZDUSD if thats going to be the case…
See you guys on market open.
I’m off !
Hi guys,
I have seen some great posts out there. Sorry, I will not write very long again as my Sunday goes again almost to the thread I would like to reat a bit until market open. I agree with the stuff out there. Mike, I think it is not a question that fundamentals and rookie’s report is important. I think though it is important when we have normal market conditions. If we are at an extreme, then most likely the trend will change. Think about it: was EUR economy really strong until May when the market turned? Nor really. Still, it was time to turn and it turned. Mike, as rookie said, you might get a title. Have to think about it what the right one would be. And what is sentiment? It is my view of the market
And flows, respect that you stick to your plan even if the current situation is not easy for cable. I share rookies view, the pair looks slightly bearish for me, too.
And rookie, I also do not take EUR/GBP. It is probably the only one I do not like that much.
I am also off and will enter the trades short after market open or tomorrow as Peter expects a USD pullback so I might wait and see first.
EDIT: Mike I forgot something on technicals. In the end of the book I just completely agree with Williams. I wonder what you will say about it! I have the feeling that you are reading some economic books at the same time
Guys, remember I was saying about the weather forecast, how it can be quite accurate near term, but it can be hazy longer term (he he I love the pun).
Was reading this little piece this evening.
Day Trade Futures Online - Larry R. Williams, Larry Williams - Google Books
Hi Philip,
as the market open is approaching, I am looking for entering 4 pairs. I checked the charts and I thought I tell you how I see the entry system so you can tell me in real time if I use the strategy right or not.
Here are the pairs which I still need to enter (I am already in many trades what we mentioned on the weekend):
[B]USD/CHF long
GBP/CHF long[/B]
And the other two seems to be a bit more risky:
[B]GBP/NZD long
GBP/AUD long[/B]
The last two as I said seems a bit risky because GBP gained so much last week, I am not sure if it is better to wait for a pullback. Still does not matter how I choose at the end, i describe you how I see the entry for the 4 pairs and you can tell me if it is right:
[B]USD/CHF long[/B]: here I have a problem right away. I clicked the different TFs to see where is the volatility circle above the candle. Until I clicked to 30 minutes, there is no circle above the candle. You said in this case there is no trade. You did not mention what is the last TF we check. So, based on the system, on this pair there is no trade signal in any TF.
[B]GBP/CHF long[/B]: here the volatility circle is above the candle on the 1H TF. %R is getting to the direction of being in the low extreme. If it continues like it is at the moment, a couple of hours after market open we might get a buy signal.
[B]GBP/AUD long[/B]: wow, 1 hour before market close, the value was -92 which is according to the strict rules was barely missing the signal. I am talking about the 1H TF. At any time there might be a signal to jump in.
[B]GBP/NZD long[/B]: going down until 30 minutes TF there is no chart where the volatility circle is above the candle, no signal is expected in the next hours.
Philip, even if you see too late my post, you can maybe look back at the charts to control what I have written. Thanks a lot!
Also important guys to mention, from the 10 possible pairs we discussed to trade, I will only not trade 2 of them: [B]GBP/EUR short[/B] and [B]USD/JPY long[/B].
Hm, I wonder if there was a site with yearly chart. I mean, 1 year is printed as one bar. Predicting the next bar should be easy since it’s somewhat short term, no? 
Hi Peter,
on page 102 on the bottom it is exactly what I did with S&P 500. Hopefully turns out good!
Thanks for the post,
FE
Yes, FE, I figured that - I’d say maybe tomorrow could be an up day.
Anyways, maybe I’ll try a Greenspan - the whole week ‘should’ be up
Peter, can you please explain what do you mean by trying a Greenspan? Is it a forex expression or does it have to do with the ex Fed Chairman?
I also like the first sentence: “I’d say maybe tomorrow could be an up day.” - you are absolutely right. If it is up, then you were right. If it is down, you said that it is only maybe
Flows you are funny! You have to be a turtle or some kind of tree to live for a couple of hundred years to make profit on yearly candles and patterns. I have never heard about something like that. The chart would be short for many commodities I guess. Oh, and do not trade with too large position as there might be some drawdowns to sit through
Why, yes, I’m a turtle trader!
Lol, the credit goes to Peter. His comment “[I]how it can be quite accurate near term, but it can be hazy longer term[/I]” made me think. If we could turn “long term” to “short term”, maybe we could use the more precise method of short term trading for the long term one. But this is of course can only include technical analysis. Oh, and it’s 2 AM here, a time where you may find me to be very creative or mumbling during sleep 
FE, lol, you have figured every politician in the world - they are never wrong.
The Greenspan thing was just a little reference to the legendary Alan Greenspan who got it wrong in the report quoted by Williams - (just shows that we all far from perfect).
Now the S&P thing tomorrow is way more serious - Phillip is rightly noting the importance of seasonal tendencies, Williams agrees with Philip, but he takes it a step further.
Well actually two steps, first he looks at the trading day of the week (he calls it TDW) and then the trading of the month (TDM).
Day of the week is obviously easy, TDM is different in his analysis, not a calendar - a number, example day 1 is the first Trading day, etc, then exclude holidays and weekends - usually goes to around 22 for the month.
Now the good news - from 1998 to 2011, S&P rallies last 3 days TDM and first 4 days TDM - and even better news - has a tendency to rise from the open on Mondays.
So… NFP on Friday - there are hints of good numbers - no-one is rightly sure why the S&P fell on Thur (I know the Apple thing etc)
So like all good weather forecasters - there is a maybe :).
FE, I’m not sure about this - did Williams suggest an exit at the close on the day of entry after the 3 day down thing on S&P
Hi Peter!
Awesome posts and I like the TDM examples. I hope though that it will show a better result than end of July 2014 and beginning of August! But I look forward for it. You did not write about the Williams observation for the TDW. I think in the article you sent was written that Monday is strong for S&P500. I wasn’t sure how long should I read the document you sent.
How exactly NFP influences the stocks market? Is it the same idea like with USD? Good news up and bad news down? (sorry to ask questions like this, I know it is disappointing).
Well that is the problem you said with Williams system. He did not mention where he exited the trades. He only said how much it would earn (both in the article you sent and in the COT book, I checked it). I made a mistake though on Thursay. I should have moved my SL to breakeven when it was up and enter the trade later on when it was low. Philip is right with commodities, the different pip value makes very different for risk management. My account cannot handle big drawdones on S&P 500. I will protect from now on profits more agressively, even if it reduces my edge. I would go for the 2000.00 I think, but maybe not exit, only make a trailing stop. Better just jump in with some large positions Peter and push it up with me! Just for the record: the index stays exactly on my entry level.
Flows is being creative in his sleep, though maybe daily rather than yearly.
Jesse Livermore spent hours detailing what he called ‘pivotal points’, now MT4 does that in a flash.
On a daily S&P, by looking left and drawing some horizontal lines we can see those points.
I often think that the key to these levels or points is not in trying to anticipate whether price will actually reach them, but rather being aware if price HAS reached them.
The NFP thing is sentiment only and thus it’s effect on stocks may not be as lasting as FX. Good numbers for the largest economy increases risk appetite, back in the 60’s, when we were swinging, the government told us ‘you never had it so good’ - that type of attitude.
Morning guys…
Look what happened to NZDUSD guys ! Should have known this coming from last week’s dovish statement by RBNZ head… its all past now, we missed out on the downfall now the pair seem to be correcting a bit and I am patiently waiting on the side to short this pair and I might keep this going for a while and here’s why…
RBNZ Reports Biggest Currency Sale Since 2007 to Weaken Kiwi
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sold a net NZ$521 million ($404 million) in August, the biggest sale since July 2007, data published on its website showed today. The kiwi dropped on the news, falling below 78 U.S. cents for the first time in a year. Governor Graeme Wheeler warned last week that the kiwi’s level was unjustified and unsustainable, invoking the bank’s criteria for intervention. The strong currency has suppressed inflation, prompting the central bank to pause its policy tightening after raising interest rates four times this year.
While the currency has weakened since Wheeler paused raising rates, at 3.5 percent the RBNZ’s benchmark is still among the highest in the developed world, making New Zealand assets attractive to investors
Wheeler said last week the exchange rate hasn’t fully adjusted to a slump in prices for New Zealand exports such as dairy products, and warned[B] it’s susceptible to a “significant downward adjustment” over the coming six to nine months[/B]. “The bank would welcome a move towards a more sustainable exchange-rate level,” he said in a statement on Sept. 25. “Unjustified and unsustainable are important considerations in assessing whether exchange-rate intervention is feasible.”
Apparently some analysts see kiwi trading at 65 cent /in accordance with its fundamentals/ so more downfall for kiwi is sure to be expected for a while…
Good morning guys! Doc.
Yeah, that was the first thing I noticed also. I even have a link ready to post that explained how much the bank sold of their currency. But I see you are on it already. That really is getting me thinking. I mean, guys, the NZD is just going to tank! Well, good thing the end of the month is near. I am definitely gonna get into that. I just might put in several, maybe all, NZD short. Across the board. And let it run for the entire month. Should be a good chance of getting my goal, huh?
And then I will hopefully get to play with, I mean manage, some extra pips. Moving stop losses lower, shoring up pips. See that’s what I am looking for, to trade. I’ve been thinking a lot lately. It just seems more easier to catch my pips by waiting for the right time, riding on someone with momentum (either for up or down) across the board. And if I’m right, then spreading it out, the trades, amongst all the other players, I should get to the goal much faster. The pips will add up more quickly. I guess what I’m trying to say is that 200 will take longer to achieve with one trade at a time, than 7 trades going all at once. So I think that the NZD will be my vehicle in the next coming days. I mean look…it should be a no brainer. [B]Long[/B] term trades running. What’s the chances of me being successful for the month of October riding them down?
So, that’s becoming my plan for the upcoming month.
And Philip, you asked me what’s my plan. I think it is clear now. See, I really haven’t been able to come up with anything concrete lately. Been wondering about the GBP, for up. The USD I’m definitely not considering riding up. (probably oversold). Who’s the next underdog? shrug Was gonna wait for the AUD.
So guys…that’s some of my thinking.
BTW…here’s a link to an article for NZD.
http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/indices-insider/2014/09/29/02/
Talk to me.
I’m here.
Mike