Rumours that the ECB are reading as well, the talk is that they are running out of ideas on how to kick start the EZ economy.
Seriously though, not many months ago we had poorer manfctr numbers for UK, price ignored them - the thinking was that UK is not a manufacturing economy.
I’m still blaming that pesky one - still waiting it to break.
It’s really difficult to imagine buyers of Euro and sellers of GBP - but there you go, apparently happened this morning - let’s see what legs it has - maybe none.
Hey FE.
Your right. Nothing really, just about an hour later, to see any kind of change, that’s all.
So, here’s a shot at 0900. I’ll put the 0815 then 0900 together.
FE… congrats! you’ve really got it going there with S&P and silver aren’t you ? your thoughts on USD and GBP how they’re able to hold on to their gains are point on and I agree with everything you wrote there.
I’ll have some time in the morning tomorrow and the day after I’ll be on bloomberg then asian segment I’ll make sure to bring some fundamental write ups I’ve mostly been reading the headlines this week while managing my NZDUSD short trades but now I’m starting to feel a little lost in the world of fundamentals I suppose its about time that I catch up on that.
There’s few headlines on China property market , protest in Hong Kong and Japan possibly on the way to recovery sentiment improving ? this must be a joke I’ll do some reading on this no worries guys
Expect some fundamentals by tomorrow morning I’m off guys!
now these two charts to compare do make a sense. As we see there has been quite a big change in daily sentiment. Unfortunately the bad GBP news changed the daily bias almost on all currencies against us!
Here is the change before and after the GBP news based on your charts:
Got stronger: AUD, NZD, EUR, CHF (slightly) and CAD (slightly)
Got weaker: GBP and USD
Unchanged: JPY
I can only agree with that. Who wants to buy Euro now? Ok, commercials but that is something different.
Just one hour after the news, I am looking at the 1H GBP charts. After the fall, GBP already started the pullback. Entered a small EUR/GBP short and GBP/AUD long on the pullback. The GBP/NZD signal comes in any moment so I jump into that one too.
As there are many trades open and I have a EUR/GBP breakout order set, these last three trades are short term. I am aiming only 100-120 pips per trade in average and nothing long-term.
[B]Bad[/B]: I closed some time ago the S&P trade. Just looking at the technicals it is not looking good. As there might be a sharp rise too, I am looking at it closely to jump back.
[B]Good[/B]:look at the silver chart! There was a signal some time ago and I entered long. As the pip calculation are different, I waited some time until it went to my direction and put SL just above the entry, creating a risk free trade there. For sure, I do not give much chance here for a turnaround!
Sorry guys to post so much but NZD makes a huge run. Am I missing something? Did something unexpected come out? Or is it only a normal sentiment retracement? I do not like when pips are running out of my hands!
I resign. I go running. I just don’t get it today. Within 45 minutes NZD has just completely disappeared and everything looks awesome. What the hell is going on? Of course into the right direction everything is welcome.
Peter and rookie, please help me out there. I found out today is dairy day but I did not get the email until now with results. The current price movement suggests that it was going good for us (if that is the reason for the movement), which would mean prices have fallen once again.
I know nothing of the recent fundamentals behind NZD, but last week COT report shows that the difference of the net positions is still positive. If this week’s report shows the difference turn to negative, then perhaps we can expect to see something like what happened to GBP last 2 week?
I think that since the whole world now knows NZD is going south, the bank will want to do it in the most profitable way; mark the price up to shake traders off then bring the price down as fast as possible. So I suggest trading NZDUSD and GBPNZD on a longer term basis. That means choosing longer-term entry points and not just holding the trade for longer.
NZDUSD and GBPNZD are approaching yearly pivot points. So price from a technical point of view should stall. around that level. The yearly level for NZD is 0.77144.
[B]My Suggested Play for NZDUSD short[/B]
Its pure and simple, we should have a breakout strategy for this trade. I would take two positions on that trade; the first is shorted on the first weekly close below 0.77144. The second is to short on a retracement to 0.77144.
I also asked our friends from the supply/demand thread to give us their analysis on where to enter NZD in both GBP and USD. There technical analysis is method is based on fading fake price movements created by commercials to hunt the stops of regular traders, it should be perfect for our needs.
Hope this provides some perspective and I cant wait to get your perspective on New Zealand.
As for GBP I think with Mike its a matter of entering at before the London open that just didn’t work this week. I’m currently 125 pips in profit total. Not as prolific as previous weeks but we are only half way through. There is also only one loser so far which is GBPJPY.
GBP was again weaker as indicated by Eur/Gbp - the 7750 area is critical and will only be broken on bad Euro news (may not have terribly long to wait on that) or some Euro selling vs USD.
I posted those GBP charts last night - looking at the Aud/Usd and Nzd/Usd (daily) a similar position and Eur/Gbp and Gbp/Chf - it’s decision time looming.
My suspicion is that NFP will hold the key.
A good play for me will be to set some breakout orders should the numbers be good.
what a day. NZD stopped gaining but then came even worse: GBP got knocked out! My pip count took a hit today, but gains are in positive as my USD trades have larger position size.
Flows,
good that you are back again. I guess you range trading is not so interesting so you can hang out with us again. Although today you had the chance to make some pips there. To tell you honostly, I cannot answer your question. You are the only one looking at such net positions. We (rookie and me) analyse net positions but we analyse it separately, I analyse it for specs and rookie makes two different analysis once for specs and once for comms. But we never aggregate the findings. What I can tell you though from our analysis that we do not look much at the positve/negative value. That is not so important. Important is the comparison how this value is compared to the past x years data. If you for example look at gold COT report you can see that specs are basically always net positive with positions and comms are always negative. I hope this helps.
Philip,
I agree, I also think this is a retracement, still quite a tought one. Thanks for sharing with us your technical view and that you bring here extra ideas from other threads! We are interested to see all findings. I agree, this was only half of the week, we will see what comes. I am not doing as good with GBP like you, my GBP trades are negative, I am only in surplus with USD trades.
Peter,
hmmm that is quite a brave statement I think to make about USD. I rather listen to the COT report. That said, I am watching the S&P 500 again for a third day decrease for the second time. Still this last candle looks very strong so I do not enter this time automatically. On the other hand we are coming to a strong trendline support. We will see. But if I do enter, then I will get out in the end of the day, like you read about.
Peter, I just checked the two weekly charts you mentioned. True, there are some key levels. I see a difference though when comparing these two with the two from yesterday. EUR and CHF had even the same dates for the key levels, the correlation for the NZD and AUD charts are not really too much, but the levels do line up!
Ah, I see. Well, measuring the difference is what I’ve learned here in babypips school, so that’s what I’ve been using all this time. I’m still developing an understanding of it, so I guess I’ll just see what this week’s report has for me. Lol, yes, I decided to stick with my swing trading style. It turns out I don’t have the stomach for range trading. I’m still holding my sell position from September 19th and add 1 more position today. It’s somewhere around +200 pips now. I’ve been tempted to close early though, seeing how both USD and GBP move in tandem in my correlation indicator, which I interpret as a period of sentiment forming. Good luck and good trading everyone!
that is funny, I also learned most of the stuff in babypips school. Still, in books, articles etc. it is not explained like that. What is good, you have in your excelsheet all the other information so for you it is no work to just look through the other numbers and find the extremes! Yeah, range trading is also not really for me. I think it is not bad to have it open as USD looks the strongest. But who knows… And because I do not like range trading for this reason do I like setups with strong vs. weak currencies.
So…guys…I’ve been wanting to tell you. Actually if you were paying attention should be no surprise.
This morning, before I went to work, I spent a lot of time mapping out my trades. All limit orders placed. With some take profits. (Just like I did last month, and they took, and put me up and over)
Who you ask? Well, I’m going with a NZD going down. Against every last one of them. All of them will kick in quite a bit down to where price dove to recently. Kind of before that level. I will put it out there where they will take. But…guess what…as we know the not so mighty NZD did crack. And I have 3 of them going now.
I’m right around a total of +15 pips. I was a bit higher, but, look, I have all month. And I feel confident that within these 30 days each of them will catch the TP. This is what I’m in the market with now.
NZD/CAD —sold at .8699
AUD/NZD—bought at 1.1227
NZD/JPY —sold at 84.89
Looks like the NZD correction isn’t done just yet. If I wasn’t aware of the fundamentals and the bigger picture I probably would have had a heart attack by now , I’ve got over 10 short positions on NZDUSD going most of them I went in early prior the big correction they’re in a huge loss in pips good thing we cover the bigger picture so I’ll just extend my SL and see what happens I might even add more at the end of this correction I bet kiwi can’t go any higher against dollar than it already had unless US prints another disappointing NFP data this friday. And like Mike I’m confident in my bias and I’m sure it will hit TP pretty soon , I’m rooting for a better NFP reading this friday :57: If NFP data disappoints then we /I/ might have to hold this longer than what we /I/ had anticipated.
FE… I woke this morning and read on fxstreet macroeconomic news updates that there’s been a dairy price slump once again you were right and it was much worse than the previous reading but it sure wasn’t enough to discourage the NZD bulls from pushing NZD higher against dollar but I’m assuming it will only be a matter of time before dollar bulls take control lower than expected ISM manufacturing data sure didn’t help NZD buying momentum. I’m wondering who’s behind this buying momentum maybe its the banks , you may be right Philip flushing out the small specs before they turn it all around. While we’re on the subject of volume , I was thinking guys is there a way to know the volume behind price action accurately there’s volume based indicator on my platform but as I’ve read on volume analysis thread /its in forextown I believe/ apparently it differs from broker to broker thus isn’t reliable. We may incorporate volume analysis into our system guys FE ? This might be whats been missing. We’ve got the bigger picture and we have a pretty good bias/outlook as to which direction a certain pair is heading and the COT /past data we’re using it as a confirmation to our long term fundamental outlook/ - so we’ve covered past /COT/ and the future /fundamentals/ how about the present ? I don’t know if this all makes sense to you but it does to me. I thought if only there was a way to gauge the volume behind price action we might just be able to pinpoint the turnaround points we could even use that in conjunction with COT extremes for determining market bottoms or tops. If this all is feasible we’ve got pretty much every edge that you could possibly ask for in this game :51: I’m getting all excited about this but let me know what do you think about that guys I’m interested to see what you all have to say.
By the way here’s the screenshot of dairy price auction :
I’ve mostly been reading the headlines this week while managing my NZDUSD short trades but now I’m starting to feel a little lost in the world of fundamentals I suppose its about time that I catch up on that.
