Fellas.
Just an update on the trades. 1200 GMT Tuesday.
EUR/GBP—+37
GBP/CHF—+63
GBP/NZD— -46
GBP/JPY— -11
Total = +43
Not bad! Slow getting going, but I feel good about it for the coming week.
Mike
Hi Rookie, will post this evening.
Update: CRB, more specifically Copper has been recognized as a ‘Economic Health’ indicator, another such indicator obviously can be the S&P.
I’ll quote J. Murphy:
“Fig shows shows copper and the S&P trending together since 2000 … the correlation shows positive for 10 out of 12 years”.
In his Tips “Copper is also viewed as a barometer of the strength of the global economy”.
There is much more to his inter market analysis on the effect of the relationship between the crb and stocks.
Like all correlations - they change over time - see all the talk about same since Murphy’s book in 2012:
Hi guys,
sorry for the delay. I started reading rookies post, then PipDiddys and then I had to leave. I am only now available again. I missed a half day and I am already 17 posts behind. In the beginning of the day I closed my XAG/USD trade. I was thinking on what Philip said about Silver/USD correlation. I checked the charts then and decided the fall will continue. I try to get in for a better price. With S&P I am a lot more optimistic and stay in. Unfortunately GBP trades are not doing so good this week, but they are ok. We cannot expect every week to gain 800-1000 pips vs. AUD and NZD after all.
Rookie,
of course we are agreeing. I said from the beginning that I think we are very similar traders 90%-95% of the time. The rest is for example the NZD vs. JPY and for this reason we made a good discussion on it. I read a technical analysis book, just to understand the principles better, but as I said I do not trust them too much. They are good for entries or exits or confirmation but they just fail extremely often. What for me in technicals are important is for the entry I try to benefit Philip’s method, besides that I liked to look MA crossovers earlier. But they are good entrypoints however they do not indicate of course support and resistance levels.
And about market sentiment (Mike has also posted something similar):
Stocks end lower amid Hong Kong protests
FE
Yes GBP is being a nuisance - actually IMO it’s that pesky EUR/GBP again.
Have a look at the weekly chart, that blue line has been there for 2 years, price finally reached there today, and of course reacted.
Euro is weaker, so if and when price goes through that line, well that’ll mean a lot of GBP buying.
There is one other aspect of GBP - it’s ‘link’ to the Euro, specifically how Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd correlate intraday - for example if you were trading today you only had to look at one to know that the other had turned.
My hope is that when Eur/Gbp finally get through that blue line the link may become broken, GBP can then be bullish and EUR bearish to their heart’s content.
I remember similar scenario a few years ago, so maybe I’ll keep an eye on that pesky Eur/Gbp
Current correlation of Cable and Fibre:
EURUSD-GBPUSD Euro vs US Dollar-Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar EUR-GBP Correlation | Myfxbook
Edit: Forgot the chart:
Lol, now that I’m on a roll I’ll post yet another weekly.
This time it’s GBP/CHF - it’s coming with an inverse correlation to the pesky one.
Now, not the easiest to see, but the date that the pesky one hit the blue line was July 15 2012.
On this chart there has been a yellow line (I cannot remember why I had it yellow). Two guesses on the date that price hit the yellow line last 
Oh, and myfxbook’s excellent correlation chart on the pesky one and GBP/CHF:
Hi Peter,
thanks for sharing with us your view and reason for the fail today! Although we just agreed with rookie only going with the fundamentals, sometimes we might accept a technical analysis as a reason for price movement
Well, IMO we have a good chance to break the level on Thursday. There is Min Bid Rate and ECB Press Conference. These events did not do too much good for EUR lately. Tomorrow is also a tier 1 event, Manufacturing PMI for GBP but it would suprise me to break the level. However a good reading might be a good setup for Thursday!
Hi Peter the Great,
we were talking in the whole weekend to enter GBP long trades and you share with us your great view 1 day later we bet the farm (rookie the ship) on it! Can you do us the favor to show us these great two years old lines a bit earlier? Next time we will wait for the bounce then! Ok, no worries, I do not see any reason why this should change the game. It postpones the decision but does not change it.
Good charts, the second one shows us awesome how good the SNB works in its goal to connect its currency to EUR.
I hope Peter, you do not bring “some lines” that USD hits a multiyear support zone tomorrow!
Hi guys,
I start believing Peter that our thread is well known. If you guys have nothing to do during breakfast or dinner then here is something Raghee Horner probably picked up from our weekend analysis.
It is enough if you guys watch it from 16:00. Have fun!
[B]Peterma[/B] I like your analysis in GBP. I lost 95 pips trading GBPNZD today, bringing my weekly trades to -75.
Having said that I think that yesterday was a good opportunity to buy the dip; in terms of sentiment the appetite is to buy and fundamentally the GDP revision came in better than expected just as the pound declined.
Last week, and I’ll need to check, pound jumped higher on the first trading day then dipped on the second day before flying for the rest of the week. We’ll see.
Morning guys!
Just for a quick update I’ve been riding down NZDUSD since the start of this week, adding more and closing positions in between when it hits above 80pips its definitely going to be a tough one to crack but I’ve managed to get 200pips out of this pair in total so far since Monday.
I used to wait for a candle to close below or above certain level before I placed my orders but these days I’m just putting my orders in of course I have my SL based off of key support or resistance level but thats just about it nothing more nothing less.
And I’m finding this way of trading quite fun actually, especially with NZDUSD unless we see a good NFP number for USD kiwi has being quite resilient , so scale in and out and add more on a minor pullback let it run and TP. And from what I’ve been observing there’s been only one time where USD gets stronger that is during London open or somewhere in the middle and dollar just loses it near London close and during US session and that weakness lasts through asian session. There seems to be a pattern guys…
And thank you Peter for the links !
Hey guys!
We have a Tuesday result.
NZD: +7 -0 0///+5 -0 0
AUD: +6 -1 0///+5 -0 0
USD: +5 -2 0///+1 -2 0
GBP: +4 -3 0///+1 -2 0
JPY : +3 -4 0///+1 -2 0
CAD: +1 -5 1///+1 -3 1
CHF: +0 -5 2///+0 -2 1
EUR: +0 -6 1///+0 -3 0
So looks like the Comms took it today. +8
Both NZD and AUD on top dominating it all today. Actually NZD did, AUD was down against them.
And we know the CAD had some bad news that sent them down. They were up though over EUR.
USD did have a good day, except against the 2 Comms.
EUR and CHF was the weakest.
Here’s a shot at 00 GMT.
Ok guys. I hate to say it, but I’m glad that we had a good correction from the NZD today, cause guess what…the month of Sept is over now! And you know what that means! Yep, FE, I bet your thinking I’m gonna trade away as soon as the bell sounds. Well…no. I have time. I think I’m gonna wait and watch for the NZD to come on back down to where they belong.
I’m waiting.
I found patience. (Peter)
So, if you guys want, let’s put it out there our monthly totals. Only if you want.
I made 21.1%. The first week.
Talk to you in the am., with the coffee.
Mike
Ha! Been waiting for that NZDUSD correction myself, but it doesn’t seem to be looking back so I’ll just add to my positions on breakdowns. Congratulations on your wins and keep it up!
If only there was a way to get Mikes stats a day earlier things would have been much easier wishful thinking :).
London open is approaching in 2 hours and dollar is holding well I’m going to watch if there’s going to be a similar pattern strong dollar near open and in the middle of London session. Peter ? what do you think ?
I don’t know which broker you’re with Mike but I’m with oanda I have an app on my phone that not only enables me to watch over my trades during the day but also place and close trades which I find very convenient for part timers like us thats how I was able to ride down NZDUSD couple of times when kiwi was correcting as my initial positions were placed prior the correction.
Hi guys,
before looking at the thread, news are charts, I checked very fast GBP, USD, Silver, Gold and S&P. Now the morning thoughts.
GBP finally seems like getting out of trouble, but still not strong. Still, the falling might have stopped.
USD is also not so strong but holds quite good always to it’ gains.
Peter, the TDM for the last three days of the month for S&P 500 did not work. Now I am optimistic that the other half - first four TDM - will bring the pips.
And last but very not least guys. I would like all of you to check gold and silver COT net positions and COT index (timingcharts.com) with our specific indicators. The time is coming and the big money will be made soon. I will not be out of this one. That is for sure. Silver is just heading for the 3 years extreme with full speed. I think this Friday with the report we arrive there, it will most likely be also our COT index buy signal! We always talk about the big moves. Here is one that is waiting for us. I would like to hear what you have to say about it. Gold is similar but it is not that much of an extreme level.
FE
Hi Team,
As I discussed with Philip more times efficiency is a key to get better. It is important at this point too, as from this week I do believe we do have the same or very similar setups so it is very easy to analyze. I just have to say where I am still in and where I exited. Besides that I can focus on “special trades” of mine and some other issues. Keep in mind, someone might have shared these thoughts but on purpose I did not read the thread yet. Mike, please post at some time again our system trades. Thanks!
So we discussed 10 different, high probability setups in the weekend. We had bullish bias on GBP and USD vs. EUR, CHF, NZD, AUD and JPY. At that time I was skeptic why we do not have CAD in the menu, but now we can see it is not bad we left out only CAD from the bunch. It is the only very floating currency at this point I think.
From the ten setups I only did not take EUR/GBP but after Peter’s analysis yesterday, I might do a breakout play there. I took profits on one of my AUD/USD trades, and strange but opened a USD/JPY position too. This last one I do not want to play long, it almost already hit my target. Besides that I closed my XAG/USD but I check very often my chart as I do believe the move is very near to us as I already mentioned.
How do I see the market this week? It seems like after the large gains last week, the strong currencies take a break before the main economic reports. The fireworks are still to come. NZD and AUD gains strength, but even that said USD and GBP show how strong they are: while other currencies lose, these two hold mostly to their levels. With JPY I am still not comfortable. It holds to its level, hard to beat at the moment. I keep here very close eyes. I do believe all our trades are doing good regardless on the pip counts but this makes me worry. CAD as I said shows nothing interesting, we just leave it on the side for now, although I opened 1 USD/CAD long some time ago and it is still slowly gaining pips.
I do not add all my positions so roughly my [B]14 active forex trades show about +1550 floating pips[/B] and my [B]S&P 500 trade is down from 1975.63 to 1965.63[/B]. Sorry guys I cannot even tell you if it means I am down 10 or 1 000 points with the S&P as I am not sure with the measurement there so I rather wrote down the value to make it clear.
As rookie and Peter suggested to me, it does make sense to leave exotic pairs on the side for now and focus on the 8 main currencies. (of course my temperament took me into S&P and silver but I still think if I have the edge I have to try sometimes).
I want to thank you all the great work and analysis. We are really getting the big picture and with good work we will get there.
Guys.
I wanted to get another look. Before GBP news. Comms are still up. So, here’s the two pics side by side.
(0725 and 0815)
I’m curious if Majors will turn it around during London. I’ll shoot one up a little after GBP news.
Hi guys,
well the GBP news was a slap in the face so I guess if GBP does not give strong numbers than we have to count on the weak numbers of the other currencies. My account surely did not like the Manufacturing PMI results.
Good posts and thoughts out there again. I cannot even say a single word about it.
Mike,
I do find it a great idea to show the sentiment before and after the news. That is just genius. However what was the point of comparing it at 0725 and 0815. Was there a catalyst? Looking at the daily chart, only AUD had some change.
Hi PipDiddy,
just keep us updated with the Fundamental blog and we do our best to keep you updated with good setups. Deal?
FE