Counter trading a newbie?

Hey guys

We’ve all heard this before “I lose so often that if you just take the opposite side of my trades, you’d be ridiculously profitable”. I’m intrigued - has anyone ever actually tried it? :wink:

Are there any absolute newbies around who are willing to take part in an experiment? :wink: It’s just for fun, no seriousness intended! :slight_smile:

Yes it’s been tried many times, also tossing a coin etc. ad nauseum.

Your original trades start to win, go figure.

But trading isn’t all about choosing the right direction to bet, it’s
knowing how long to hold, where to get out, when to move your
S/L, when/where to take profit etc.

Stopping your losers short, letting your winners run.

True, but if you enter and exit at the exact same levels as the lesser trader as well as using the same level of risk, and they blow their account, you technically make 100% - right or wrong?

Tried it, I think I’ve tried everything by now, did a SL 6 pips, and TP 6 pips, had 16 loosing trades in a row, something like that anyway.

i know this has been a topic of discussion, but i feel forex is NOT a zero sum gain. You can both lose money. Timing is everything.

It is a zero sum, but not everyone in Forex is in it to make a profit.

Spread & commission would erode both account.

Most people also lose because their SL is too tight but their TP is incredibly big.

I’ve seen evidence from FXCM to the contrary. The stats/article was making the point that if unprofitable traders would just have a bigger TP they would be profitable because most are over 50% win ratio in the long run. Here’s the problem, if TP is bigger there is less chance of it getting hit. That wasn’t factored in so not a great article. I think noobs let losers run while they hope and pray and take TP to soon out of lack of patience and understanding of the game.

Back on topic, so how about managing the trade opposite? “Nooo don’t hit my TP, ok I’ll make it bigger” says the reverse noob. And of course, “It’s going to hit my stop, oh good maybe I’ll add more to this awesome trade or hey, just close it now and feel good about myself” etc…

Personally I think you have to be informed with real info about big money activity and be right more than you’re wrong tomake money…not just manage coin toss entries…doesn’t work. (Master Tang excluded) :wink:

Found it… 301 Moved Permanently

Yeah sure, when you come across any noobs willing to do the trade - just point them in our direction.
Jokes aside, traders do make a dash to get in new trades esp when the market heads in the opp direction and when these trades are executed, the market reverts back to the original. Usually, new traders fall for this…smh
The point being you never, never execute a trade unless you are sure about your strategy and a idea on how the market’s going to react.

Hahaha guys, you are missing the point. I’m not considering this method of trading myself, it’s purely hypothetical. If I get my younger brother (who is completely uninitiated in Forex) to trade an account, and I click the buy or sell button at the exact same time as him, with the same unit size, closing at the same time, adding new positions at the same time, cancelling stop losses at the same time, literally doing everything he does except in the opposite direction, surely it would end up being profitable? Technically speaking!
Unless of course he hits 100% ROI at any stage :wink:

It sure must be great having a younger brother to do all the grunt work…just wish I had one like that…btw, let us know how it works out and of course, a 100% ROI, yeah LOL

I’ve been messing with ea’s lately. Wrote a few in the last month and thought I had a promising one till I tested it on other pairs where it performed awful. At some stage I become bored(I guess) and altered them to make sure those exact conditions that I originally wanted met before entering a trade did not return true. So now I have an ea and because of how it is written will enter a buy position instantly if the original conditions are false or a sell position if they are met. I am slowly learning this market behaviour thing - not sure I could psychologically trade my systems (even automated) with this approach. Though very amusing.:18:

Isn’t it obvious that most “traders” don’t have an established system that they have confidence in? So they jump from system to system method to method and even from broker to broker. Constantly spinning their wheels. These are the ones who run to NFA and CFTC to complain!!!

Exactly- Trading isn’t all about choosing the right direction to bet, it’s knowing how long to hold, where to get out.
Setting proper stop loss and take profit is very important. The stop loss is very important to safeguard your account, but the take profit is also a bit important as it defines your risk to reward ratio.

Got the same question in my mind a few weeks ago…I thought we should play like Market makers!

Hi Guys,

Your ideas make sense.

I got similar ideas some time ago so I’ve created a program which allows reversing trades from one account to other account. It just opens opposite positions on the destination account with SL equal to original TP and TP equal to original SL.
And you know, this program (reverse copier) is quite popular and customers like it, so the idea of copying newbies trades in reverse mode works :slight_smile:
Also people copy trades of losing EAs which are running on a demo account. But sometimes it is a problem to find an EA which is losing enough, also note that scalping EA losers are not good for that because you will not get the profit due to spreads and commissions so the best way is to copy losing EA which has middle-term or long-term strategy.

Please see more details about reversing trades here: Reverse Mode of Forex Copier

below is the illustration of ideal reverse Copying


It will not work because of slippage and spread. If you look at a supposed ‘winner’ in forex they will make 5-6% a month, and about +20 to +40 pips over 10-20 trades a month. That factors in the broker making 30-40 pips in spread (1-2 pips) and slippage (0-1 pip) so your newbie would have to lose 50-80 pips or 10-15% per month. More likely what will happen is that you will both be ground down by spread and slippage to lose 5% per month over 10-20 trades per month.

Pro traders and accomplished traders won’t even contemplate reversing their original entries willy nilly. But I see that newbies and total amateurs will. Reversing a willy nilly entered trades won’t make it better either. You might as well just toss a coin on every trade or go both long and short simultaneously on every trade.