Just backtested my system and it averaged 735 pips per month with a win rate of 46%. Is this already a good system or should I still look to improve it? thanks in advance.
from what little I know - 735 pips per month is a great result. 46% win percentage is also great, assuming your win amounts are better than your losses. if your loss percentage is 56% but you’re losing 50 pips per trade, and your win percentage is 46% and you’re winning 60 pips per trade, then you’ll be good!
In terms of should you look to improve - I’d say you should always be looking to improve no matter how great your win percentage is. Unless of course you’re winning 100% of the time!
It wins about 163 pips and losses 55 pips on average. So great! I think I’ve just found my holy grail but my backtest assumes that I never miss a trade. So maybe I could work on my psychology and discipline to be a really great trader
How long is the backtest? Is it an automated system? I remember reading about mechanical automated trading systems and a lot of experts say that backtesting is only so reliable. I didn’t really understand the complex statistics and stuff behind it but apparently just because a backtest says the system is successful doesn’t mean it will work exactly that way in real life.
If you are going to trade it live then make sure you do it with little money to begin with. Also if it is automated then remember that the system can break down when market conditions change so make sure you monitor it.
My system is not automated. I backtested it manually for the year of 2013
speaking of which - back testing - what do other PIP-seekers suggest? If I had a system or two, that I wanted to back test - is there a preferred method/process of doing this in an automated way, or a way in which at the least saves having to do it manually like say Justin here has for his system? Not to say what he’s done is wrong - but if you wanted to say assess a system for all of 2013 - is there a faster way to plug a system in to a platform, and simulate real trades, but in a faster/more expedited way to assess what the results would have been, in a real life situation?
I’ve heard of backtesting systems you could use but they don’t come for free. Try googling them
We really need alot more detail to provide an answer. What exactly is your system? What’s the logic behind your entry and exits? Can they be explained in terms of order flow?
What’s the sample size? (or how many trades did you backtest?)
Have you drawn an equity curve to see how it changes over the course of your backtest period?
What is your deepest drawdown?
Have you tested this with other pairs?
Just a few questions.
A while back, I read this book by Keith Fitschen and he has built many profitable automated trading systems and is supposed to be one of the pioneers in the field:
Building Reliable Trading Systems: Tradable Strategies That Perform as They Backtest and Meet Your Risk-Reward Goals
You can find it on amazon.