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Sorry. Will stay on track.
this is a major issue I am trying to temper. I will enter/exit in anticipation and not wait for the signal. I keep reminding myself to be satisfied with a “chunk” of trend; don’t need the whole thing.
KC
Hi @frandlost KC,
You are certainly not alone in that! I try to take my signals more from the Daily/4H charts nowadays (instead of my old 1H/15m combo when I was a “younger” trader! 
) - but does that stop me “accidently” looking in every now and again and acting prematurely? NO!! I do it time and time again! 
and it nearly always turns out to be worse than if I’d waited.
It almost requires one to reach a state of “semi-boredom” with trading in order to find the patience to wait without pre-empting signals!! But it is really worth working on the discipline aspect in your trading. It also helps avoid over-trading.
Not much change on the day so far.
Prices had dipped earlier, before climbing back to earlier levels, when Russia put even more weight on the outcome of the Trump/Jinping meeting by saying that they will wait for the outcome of the G20 talks before deciding whether to agree to extending OPEC+ production cuts next week.
Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that ”OPEC+ needs to understand oil demand in the third and fourth quarters, the pace of growth in the world’s biggest economies and the effects of sanctions before making a decision on the deal”.
Apart from a brief move above $58 (WTI) in the morning, Monday has spent most of the day below last week’s high. We are currently sandwiched between the Daily and Weekly 200SMA’s but these will mean nothing if the market moves in response to G20 comments or US/Iran developments.
There are supposedly new Iran sanctions being imposed today, but I have not seen any news about that - maybe I’ve missed it. 
Little new overnight and we are still trading (not surprisingly) just under the top of last week’s range.
The additional sanctions applied by the US to Iran came in the form of financial constraints on the assets of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top Iranian officials. Whilst this cannot be any great surprise to the Iranians, it does not help towards starting any negotiations between the two countries, either.
Iran has so far denied any involvement in the earlier attacks on oil tankers and infrastructure and only confirmed shooting down the US drone as it was claimed to be in Iranian airspace. Therefore we are unlikely to see any responsive direct military activity from Iran, especially during such a high-profile week leading up to the G20, if at all. But that does not exclude further unidentified attacks on oil targets from whoever was responsible for the earlier attacks.
Interestingly, Mr Trump also stated that other countries should protect their own oil shipping in the Middle East rather than have the United States protect them. Is this again just an issue of the US bearing too high a proportion of defence costs or an attempt to get more allied military presence into the area?
Comments suggest that expectations from both the war threat and the upcoming Trump/Jinping meeting are weakening and markets are further stagnating in the wait for new input.
Certainly, we are facing a rare situation where the outcomes are more than just near-term price direction. We are looking at possible wide-scale destructive military eruption in the Middle East and a possible catalytic start to a global economic recession in an already weakening growth situation.
Both events would have a major impact on oil supplies and demand - and therefore on price. Little wonder we are all looking and waiting and wondering…
Just for the record, the first of this week’s crude oil inventories is released later today by the API. Any marked deviation one way or the other will have an impct but I suspect it will be short-lived ahead of the EIA release tomorrow and the huge relevance of the G20 at the end of week and next week’s OPEC+ meetings - but worth being aware of.
Well we did get quite a deviation with a draw quite significantly exceeding expectations. But I confess I didn’t expect to see quite such a sustained follow-through on the upside. Having re-entered longs earlier in the day on a dip below $58, I jumped out at 58.50 in anticipation of the market retracing ahead of the weekend G20 events and comments - but we have sustained the gains overnight and breached the $59 level.
We have also passed up over the Daily 200SMA level.
The API reported a draw in crude oil stockpiles of 7.5 mill barrels for last week, which was noticeably more than the expected draw of around 2.5 mill barrels. This caused an immediate spike in prices which had been drifting around the top end of last week’s price range all week so far.
The API also reported a substantial draw in gasoline inventories for the week, at 3.17 mill barrels, compared with analysts’ estimates of a build in gasoline inventories.
However, although these figures are bullish when considered in isolation, US crude oil inventories are still showing a net build of 26.69 mill barrels during the current year to date, which somewhat softens the relevance of one set of data.
The EIA also releases its own version of the weekly inventories data later today. Last week they reported a draw and today is expected to see more of the same at around a drop of 2.5 mill barrels.
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Bank of America Sees Risk of $30 Oil If China Devalues Yuan
I’ve been caught on the wrong side of a sneaky and stealthy Yuan overnight devaluation before.
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Interesting thoughts in that article!
I think this quote pretty much sums up all things global at present:
"…the scenario wasn’t particularly likely, but wasn’t crazy either. "
which kind of says anything goes!
At first glance it does seem a rather curious, if not crazy, idea to devalue the Yuan to keep exports and the Chinese economy rolling by countering the impact of US tariffs - but at the cost of increased oil prices which has the equivalent dampening effect of the same economy!
But China has a very long term plan and a blip of negativity during the relatively brief reign of Mr Trump (even with another 4 years) is not going to worry them so very much at this stage, I think?
And I am sure that if they go as far as to restore oil purchases from Iran then they will be able to negotiate some very suitable price deals (but hardly likely before their meeting).
This is indeed the other side of the “Grand Canyon” divide between oil- affecting factors right now. The Trump/Jinping meeting on Saturday (?) is not expected to produce anything more than an agreement to resume talks - talks which may continue without results for months. Both sides seem to be setting up their opposing preludes of “not coming to the table with concessions already in mind” and “negotiating requires an acceptance of the need for compromise” - that does not create a very positive anticipation regarding the outcome!
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This is why I bang on (mainly to new traders) about not even bothering with fundamentals.
Just scroll back on your own thread to see what I mean. Even if you (any person I mean) understood this stuff: how would you be able to trade it. You’d be jumping from one leg to the other on a daily basis.
Bloomberg is running a special at the moment so i took advantage of it i.e. $9.99 for three months (otherwise I’d not have it as I cancelled satellite as you know). So I have this on 24/7 now again. And even I am flabbergasted at the number of contrarian opinions and analyses broadcast by so-called experts in their field on any given day (Gold and Oil being but two at the moment that are in vogue). And I’m not talking about vague speculation i.e. I’m talking about black and white or binary differences of opinion.
There is a big difference between trading fundamentals and following market events. I read a lot about what is going on in the oil markets because I am seriously interested in the industry and all aspects of it - including all the countries that are active in it. Most of human life as we know it is affected by oil prices and the petrochemical industry!
But I agree with you about trading it. I never take trades that do not reflect my technical analysis. In fact most fundamental news is way beyond “lagging” that most TA guys moan about with indicators!
In my opinion, there is no problem with finding entries. It is optimising the exits that causes most difficulties, I think.
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Nice post. And point noted i.e. the difference between trading fundamentals and following market events. Obviously I confuse the two most always.
And you are quite right if any of my “hero pro. traders” are to be believed (all those books I spent loads on). There is a common theme throughout (well more than one I suppose but as it relates to exiting). John F. Carter puts it nice:
“Entries are a dime-a-dozen. Profits are in the exits.”
Hmmmm, I’ve been thinking about what you said here.
Maybe I shouldn’t write so much fundi stuff which is of no use (or interest!) to anyone else. My purpose with this thread has been as a kind of personal notebook. I find writing stuff down helps immensely with clarifying one’s thoughts and perspectives.
But I think you are right, I am not doing anyone any good here by simply regurgitating what is already available elsewhere on the net - and what is not really helpful from a trading perspective either!
I will keep my thoughts to myself instead!
As a longer term trader - and perhaps that’s not a good futures/commodities strat? - I’ve been watching it tick higher! Thinking - without regret - about my TA earlier. Gave myself a gold star on the forehead!!
Richard Ney railed against this decades ago - pre-interweb. Said that all the news/opinion is curve fitted or in some cases simply marketing developed by the markets for the markets then fed to the media and the folks behind the markets take price to where they want for their own enrichment.
He wrote “The Wall Street Gang” and the “Wall Street Jungle” Both were a big “eye-openers” for me. However, given the tech revolution and era of the “Flash Boys” I’ve been wondering if his revalations still hold true.
[quote=“Manxx, post:961, topic:83773”]
It is optimising the exits that causes most difficulties, I think.
[/quote] True for me! Which is actually a very silly statement.
Not sure if that’s a good idea. I believe the discussion of thoughts or the opportunity to explore new information or a different perspective is invaluable - I’ve learned so many, much more big words since I joined BPs!!
Perception is an interesting thing and ones ability to change that within one’s self is very limited without external input or information to avail one’s self to.
Stepping off my soap box now…
KC
Just for the record, just in case anyone should have got lost and wandered this way, I have continued this thread with my thoughts on Crude Oil and other things here:
Surgically remove Iran’s Terrorist Master General Qasem Soleimani… 
Stupidly shoot down a Commercial Airliner and take 2 days to finally admit the truth…
“Protests against authorities have spread across Iran including in the capital Tehran, Shiraz, Esfahan, Hamedan and Orumiyeh, reportedly calling for supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei to resign.”
And now it looks as if there may be enough unrest in Iran to cause a regime change from within by its own citizens and the “Trumpstar” will not even have to authorise a shot…
They are not the brightest bulbs in the chandelier, now are they… CS
There is always a risk in such investment. I invest in crude oil and gas. I buy some shares of Delek Drilling and got great returns. Hopefully I will get good returns for long time.
What to expect in nearest days from oil and gold futures amid most-talked-about coronavirus?