Crude Oil and oil markets

Well I do not know where this is going. But with a little more conviction you could see a double top coming into play soon. Probably the only thing I trade that deviates from my trading system. Have a pretty alright method for those. They just don’t come around that often unfortunately.

Looking like another good upday in the making, but being Friday, the weekend and rollover weekend at that (all positions have to closed tonight anyway), I have already closed out my day trade long - and that is another week done!

Time to go prepare the grill, Friday sauna, and a weekend at the summer cottage.

Let’s see where we pick up on Monday! Until then, may the sun stay shining for you! :smiley:

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Tough life you’ve got!!! LOL!!! Enjoy.

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Actually, I live a very simple life. Nature is free and plentiful, and where I like to be. After a long, cold winter we, as a nation, spend as much time as possible outdoors. We also drink more coffee than anyone else, but that is irrelevant! :smiley:

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I envy you. We’re headed for Winter here. Does my head in BIG time. If I could hibernate like a bear between March and November I would. Seasonal Affective Discorder is no myth I can tell you that. I’m living proof (gets worse the older I get to boot).

So you are based in Australia?
Yes, winter can be tough, but then the summer is all the better because of it! Unless you suffer from excess temps in the summer where you are?

I’ve been meaning to ask you (but there has been so much going on here recently!) do I remember correctly that you include pivots as part of your method? I do, too. But it seems quite rare these days and I haven’t seen anyone else mention it here for a long time.

I only use the actual Pivot line and not the S/R levels. I watch both the weekly and daily lines, mainly only to see if we are trading away from them (trending) or towards them (consolidating/retracing). What about you?

I have also been meaning to say that I am sorry to read that you are apparently going through a difficult time at present and that trading has taken a more intensive and central role in things. I sincerely hopethat everything starts to work out for the better - and soon! :slight_smile:

Enjoy your weekend…

Well FIRST of all: you are supposed to be enjoying your weekend and your grill and sauna not chatting to me on your mobile or tablet (I assume)!!! LOL!!!

South Africa.

Pivots. It is the strangest thing. I know them, I watch them, and sometimes I’ll make a decision to take profits based on them (as I did yesterday). But for the life of me I’ve never been able to trade them and make a profit. I believe in them 1 000%. I know with a 99% certainty that when I’m monitoring my trades on a blank chart and price pauses that it’s reached some or the other pivot level. But do you think I’ve been able to make a single cent with that knowledge??? Nope. I’m very afraid of digressing from what I do. But I’d sure be keen to get into some type of discussion re: pivots and how to trade them and make some money out of them. That (to me) is the only worthwhile form of day trading. It’s purely price based and there’s not an equities trader out there that doesn’t monitor them (not those worth their salt anyway). Problem is: there are so many pivot point trading systems out there and each one is purported to be “the only way to trade pivots” and yet they all differ.

Thanks for the good wishes. Yeh. As long as I behave myself I should be fine. In some ironic way and given that I’m well aware of the high stakes: that should curb any bright idea that may enter my head to try to get too smart and ahead of myself.

Regards,

Dale.

Done that bit :slight_smile: now just relaxing watching the oil markets settling on the pivot levels haha!:+1:

Perhaps we can talk some more about pivots next week. Thanks for all the interesting talks this week. Its been very interesting.

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I’d like that very much.

And thanks to you too.

Have a great weekend.

Chat next week.

Regards,

Dale.

I was just thinking that we are actually in the same timezone (GMT+2), but when I checked I read that you are not observing DST this year. Interesting. So you are currently one hour behind. EU is currently talking about the same thing and each country will decide next year whether to continue with normal time or summer time.

We don’t observe DST EVER (only everybody else).

Correct about the EU (and UK) at the moment.

I know that when times are good: the NYSE closes here my time at 22h00. But at some point it goes pear shaped and it then closes at 23h00.

Expectations and speculations about the upcoming OPEC+ meeting in June are just appearing on the oil price radar but it seems oil is actually gripped well within the opposing vice grips of geopolitical supply risk and global economic slowdown.

I am wondering whether this week we may see some kind of resolution of the Venezuela situation. I read that oil production (which had even slightly increased in April) has recently crashed by some 70+%. Exports are decimated by sanctions and a lack of tankers prepared to ship it and storage facilities are full. How long can any country continue in the state the seems to exist currently in Venezuela?

Sabre-rattling between US and Iran continues with the US declaring that a war with Iran will mean the end of that country. Oil exports from Iran are already at a seriously low level from Iran’s economic point of view.

Meanwhile, in the trade wars arena, we are hearing Google saying that Huawei will not have full access to all Android features in upcoming releases. That may or may not be a big issue for this huge company’s phone sales with such an enormous domestic market, but the first thing it brought to my mind was what does this say about how long the trade war will continue…

The SP500 is not looking so bright and cheerful this morning and that seems to be pulling down oil prices with it after a perky start in the Far East this morning.

As long as the SP500 is looking vulnerable, I am not looking to buy oil, so my mouse is confiscated for now…

After the morning’s sogginess we have recovered rather well, with a nice clear buy signal - but how long to hold it? Hmmm!

:joy:[quote=“Manxx, post:1, topic:83773”]
… " you have to learn to be good oil trading to make much profits but if not then losses will happen but otherwise it is good business and need a good broker" [/I]etc, etc, etc.
[/quote]

This is great! I’m implementing immediately!! :laughing::laughing:

This should be in the Masters of Pipsology for it’s deep insightfulness, spiritually moving content and immediate call to profitable action!!!

Thanks Manxx!

KC

Edit: just started reading this thread. I have read Curtis Faith’s book - Turtle Trading - He was one of the turtles. Just brought up an oil chart this morning and will continue to read through this thread.

I want to take a look at the monthly/weekly and then the D & 4H. I’ve never looked at commodities as I am limited from a $ perspective and forex has such a low entry threshold. Looking forward to learning something new.

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Thanks! :joy:

But I really cannot take the credit for those words of wisdom - they were a power input from a contributor! Credit where credit is due! :joy: :joy:

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Welcome to a Brave New World. The fascinating thing about oil is that it affects, and is affected by, just about everything that might ever interest you! In its broadest sense, geopolitics, economics and energy affect all aspects of our daily lives - and oil price is affected by all of these. If that is not enough then there is the technology, the chemical by-products (just look how much plastics are in the news nowadays), the environment, ships, rigs, electric vehicles, etc, etc, etc,…

Many brokers do CFD’s in oil starting with small lot sizes, like forex, and even the spreads are narrowing. The volatility is not what it used to be a few years back but there is plenty of movement - which is either good… or bad!!! :sunglasses:

Saw the above earlier today and it put a smile on my dial.

I see the NASDAQ is taking a bit of a hammering along with Facebook and Google (no surprise obviously). The other two F.A.N.G. stocks (Netflix and Amazon) holding up alright though. This all being said: the Dow and the S&P have done their usual daily retrace from their lows (don’t even have to bother to look see if it was a retrace from a pivot!!! LOL!!!).

In spite of what appears to be fairly decent moves (intraday ranges I mean) though: why do these markets feel like they’re on tranquilizers??? Or is it just me??? It’s like watching paint dry or grass grow.

Regards,

Dale.

No it is not just you! I was just thinking the very same thing! (but that might only mean there are just two of us!!! :joy:)

SP500 gave a nice play from the FIBR Pivot to S1 and back - but I didn’t trade it - just watched!

I am finding it very difficult to trade off single lines like these pivot S/Rs. They don’t “mean” anything to me - I look at it and I just see a horizontal line! The Pivot itself is different in that it is literally a pivotal level compared with where we have been trading and I like to be in the same direction as price with respect to that Pivot line - but these R1-4 and S1-4 they leave me cold, I don’t think I am going to get anywhere with them! :thinking: I can see them historically but when it comes to acting on them for the future, well, that is another thing. But like you said earlier , is this age or experience or simply a dull mind (on my part!)? I don’t know.

2019-05-20 SP500 30m 2

Personally, I think markets are very mixed and unsure nowadays. No one knows what tweets are coming next and the tone seems to swing from one extreme to another: Like, we are close to a deal with China, now we are not and we are punching hard again; we do not want a war with Iran, but now we do and we are sending boats and aircraft there to scare them!

Not surprising that traders do not know what to make of it all.

But, being a true Brit there is only one solution to it all:

tea

Oh well. Probably is just the two of us.

I’m happy for Mr. Market of course. But I got bills to pay.

Suppose I shouldn’t complain. Am long the Hang Seng and have to scale-in further in a short while. That’s a tiger by the tail if there ever was one. Nice if you’re on the right side. Otherwise it teaches you to move in ways you never thought possible (ask me how I know) (this if or when it actually does move of course).

Yeh. These pivots. Very sad. Same here. Looking at them after the fact is something to behold. But what to do in realtime is beyond me i.e. don’t have the stomach for it anymore it would seem.

But thanks for the pic. What a good idea. Nice cup of coffee for me would be the ticket.

P.S.

I think it’s just us actually. Just noticed that the Hang Seng’s range just for today is over 600 points. In the “wrong” direction of course.

This is a good example:

I was just reading in Reuters pages that:

Whereas Mr Trump told Fox News that the US and China “had a very strong deal, we had a good deal, and they changed it”

The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Lu Kand said "We don’t know what this agreement is the United States is talking about…

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