And Oil NOW??? Have you seen???
It bounced rather nicely off last week’s low (ringed) and seems to be confirming that guy’s quote above that we are settling into a range at a lower level. API inventories figures are due later (one day later than usual due to the Mon holiday) which might give a jolt one way or the other. But it seems to me, unfortunately, that the entire world is just trading “Trumptweeties” in place of anything concrete. But then, with US-China trade wars, Brexit, UK politics, EU election fall-out and new parliament, middle east tensions, and 17 rare earth elements - what does one expect! - thank goodness it is the month end and simply playtime for two more days…
I am not expecting great things from oil on the upside here until and unless we break back above that (brown) Daily 200SMA and the (mauve) midpoint from last week - and especially as long as the equities are looking so soggy. SP500 is also playing around its own Daily 200SMA. I’ve also been playing in and out on that all afternoon - haven’t done this kind of fun-type pseudo scalping for years! 
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Well that’s fine then. I thought somebody had blown up an oil field somewhere or something!!! LOL!!!
Oh and even although Nymex shot up: THREE guesses where it stopped!!! LOL!!! Make that ONE guess.
That is also possible! 
To be honest, I am a bit nervous about the upside potential in the broadest sense. We have had an abnormally large amount of potentially bullish situations recently including Iran oil exports driven down to almost zero, Venezuelan output dropping continually, talk of possible proxy wars in the middle east - including mine attacks on 4 oil ships in the Gulf (which the US claims were limpet mines placed by Yemen terrorists supported by Iran, i.e. enough to normally give oil a boost to new highs…but here we are down here!!!
In the other direction we have increasing US oil stocks, possible increased production from OPEC+ next month and a sinking equities market on the back of widespread crumbling economic growth.
But most of all, I am conscious of one man with an overpowering desire for low oil prices, is great mates with Saudi Arabia and is looking at his election prospects next year. If oil prices suddenly seem to be taking off excessively will we suddenly see a relaxing in sanctions against Iran including a renewed waiver on certain countries to recommence purchases from Iran?
Can one man really do all that -well, it seems like there is one!
BTW WTI started this week at 58.84 …and now, after three days trading, is now trading at 58.77!!!
Agreed (with your post previous to the above I mean).
And nice analysis and insights and/or musings.
I’ve been sitting on longs on both since the 22nd. Ideally would like for prices to go down some more so that I can scale-in further. Price on both has come to within an inch of my being signaled to TP on at least two occasions but being the extremely disciplined trader that I am (say no more nudge nudge wink wink) I’ve happily not circumvented my trading system.
Tell you one thing though: my joke/mistake about Brent reaching $61!!! LOL!!! Well…
And I think we’ve already passed your call on WTI made at that time not???
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I agree! Discipline is everything in trading. Discipline with one’s method, discipline with one’s risk/money management, and discipline with oneself!
Yes, those levels all came and went. I know lots of people trust in S/R lines but i have never personally found then any real use at all! My “problem” with them is how do you know which ones to observe and which to ignore!
Those levels we were talking about earlier are a good example. They only really came about because we were looking at Pivots at the time. It was not a particularly productive exercise. No harm done but no benefit gained either!
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Yeh. I’m notoriously bad at even spotting support and resistance on a chart. It’s always seemed to me to be a perfect science but in hindsight. But I’ll admit that some people seem to do well incorporating it into their trading.
I still got a theory about these pivots though. Haven’t quite finessed it yet. They plague me every day when I see price pause at them. It wouldn’t be pivot trading in the true sense of the word though. And very few trades too. But could be slam dunkers if you know what I mean. Will keep observing though.
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Intriguing! 
Well it’s pretty simply what I’m trying to finesse.
In short: my (main or core) system will have me go long if RSI(2) has closed for two consecutive days below 25. So it follows that I’d be going long anyway at the close of the second day. So (for this idea) for the third day (normal trade aside) I’d be looking to buy ONLY at S3 if price ever got there on that day. No stops. If profit target is not hit (choose a pivot level that suits) then just close out at the end of the day. Nothing more to it than that. Basically it solves my problem as to which direction to take a pivot trade type of thing. But as I say: just observing at the moment. Could be something to this so far as I can tell.
Might also be worth mentioning that I don’t usually actually wait for two consecutive RSI(2) closes below 25 i.e. I mostly act on the first day or signal (but that’s a whole other story).
Dunno. Take a quick squiz if you have the inclination.
It’s a bit difficult to see if just looking at a daily chart after the fact though i.e you’re obviously not seeing the intraday movements.
Anyway. Dunno. Not going to lose any sleep over this. Just something that I’m mulling over.
API lends support to price with a draw in inventories.
Yesterday provided an interesting Doji formation on the daily chart, which is a popular PA signal - especially as it formed from a bounce off last week’s lows, which is also a longer term S/R level.
We are still below the daily 200SMA, which may be a target early on - but will there be follow-through? EIA inventories release later - will it confirm the API data and how will the other inventories esp. petrol look?
We’ve seen Daily Dojis on several occasions this year and they have generally seen follow-through (red circles) - but not always very far! (blue circles)
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You are up early.
Good morning.
Without a word of a lie I, not two minutes ago, just read about the bigger-than-expected drop in US inventories on Bloomberg.com.
Admittedly should not and do not look at these things for reasons already explained but this Hang Seng position is getting on my nerves so was again trying to find an explanation for the Hang Seng not playing ball. From what I gather has only to do with the trade war and nothing more. Not a big deal i.e. floating loss only 1% of capital and support (for what that’s worth) a few points away. But of everything I trade it’s the biggest margin hog. Only up side are the dividends being received every other day while interest remains minimal. Just hate sitting on a position on the never never basis that goes nowhere. Especially seeing as this usually is a big payer when it moves.
Oh and by the way that ATR position sizing working a treat. Seems to have nicely evened the playing fields between all instruments. And I can also see a calming of wild intraday swings in floating P/L even on a day like yesterday.
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I can see some logic in this approach in that if the RSI is already oversold for 2 days then if price dips as far as S3 on the third day then there is a good chance of a bounce soon after.
But I won’t actually study this personally, not because I doubt it, but because this whole approach of RSI on dailies and Pivots is so far from my own method that it would never really find a place in my trading toolbox. Bit like an electrician studying a new form of plumbing! 
Or maybe I am just too set in my ways to change! 
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No problem. Not suggesting it as a system for anybody else. Not even sure it’s a system at the moment. Was just a thought given that I’d be trading in a particular direction anyway. And actually: because that RSI period is so short you’re effectively trading price action really i.e. two or three consecutive lower closes (which is nothing new and not a unique idea) would probably give the same signals.
Anyway. Whatever. Just found out I got far bigger problems on my hands than trying to scrape a bit of extra profit out of pivots (nothing trading related ironically).
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Sorry to hear that! Hope it gets sorted in a favourable way soon! 
Well, we tried a bit higher this morning but since price is still lost in that grey fog of the 4H-1H cloud, it seemed reasonable to take what little it offered and wait and see if we get another trade in the afternoon. Not much but, well, 30 pips is 30 pips!
Well there we are! Another typical (nowadays) contradiction in market activity, which only goes to underline the confused issues affecting this market!
After the single upmove this morning for 30 pips I did enter again on what looked like a new upmove forming but it just didn’t “feel” right and the 15m chart was showing alarm bells - so I closed it for the magnificent and triumphant profit of one single green pip! And now we are even more “down here” and would have been a stoploss if I hadn’t exited when I did.
Mind you, we had another nice bounce off last week’s lows which just serves to emphasise that we have not really gone anywhere this week at all! But making profits out of such markets is not the easiest game in town - at least not for me.
But one other positive note for me personally, was that, in spite of all the constant raving on BP about “PA is king!” and all that, just a few MA’s serves me much better and in that I trust, not the S/Rs, not the patterns - just something that shows me the flow!
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Nice post. Very happy for you too.
Not complaining myself in spite of being long still. That could change if this carries on for weeks though!!! LOL!!!
Still: I’ll only be scaling-in tonight for the third time. So another down day after tonight will do me nice. After that it’s up to the trading gods and RSI(2)!!! LOL!!!
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What does infuriate me though are these wild swings. I mean do these people realize that it’s Winter here and I have to stay up just to get an order in!!! LOL!!! That’s what happened last night. Sat here salivating thinking I’d be scaling-in further and look what happened!!! Now please gents: go down and stay down (today and tomorrow).
Quite funny actually while I was typing the above i.e. was reminded of the wild swings in the Dow during the credit crisis. I remember traders on the floor being interviewed by Bloomberg and saying “man if it would just go down and stay down (so we can get our bearings type of thing)”. LOL!!! But things change. Nowadays the intraday ranges are much greater and nobody bats an eyelid anymore. Matter of fact if they do NOT happen then there’s something amiss and it’s a bad day.
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I know what you mean! There is little that is more frustrating than intensely studying market moves that actually end up going nowhere. That is surely a minefield for the inexperienced that end up chasing price and getting whipped from side to side and resort to revenge trading!
Although I understand that your system tries to get fully loaded before reversing towards the rewards, I can imagine that it is very frustrating carrying positions while the market just wallows around in the same range. I couldn’t do that!
Actually, I kind of understand how you are building your positions but how do you exit them? Is it again down to the RSI changing or just a reverse signal? How do you decide when to quit positions if they are not performing?