How do you like THIS (below) to turn everything you thought you knew upside down!!!
Buy just before the close each night and exit at the open each morning!!! Very interesting statistics!!!
The Stock Market Works by Day, but It Loves the Night
And those reports are only a year and six months old give or take.
whoever wrote that article (i read it) is talking complete utter garbage.
you want prove?
here:
this is the advances and declines during only 9:30 NY open till NY close. the trading outside of the futures market, the raw trading of stock buy and sell. all trading outside of these hours is done exclusevily on the futures market.
it takes a glimpse of the eyes of a quarter second to see that the major advances in up trending markets are being made in the NY trading hours and the major declines in downtrending markets in the NY trading hours.
The gaps are there, yes but thats aboslutely no magic at all. it only is the lack of the tick during the close times of the NY SE. here is the same chart on a “Future Contracts”-basis:
the “gaps” are nothing more than the lack of reports of sell and buy due to the old system on which the NYSE is operating.
there is no money to be made by the article simply because the article says nothing else than “in a trending market going with the trend you will make money” (which is as clear as water in the carribean sea) the only thing they added as “new theory” is the gaps jumping in your favour. which is not jumping in your favour out of some mysterious finding of “Bespoke Investment Group”. its old news, a hundret or even more years old news that gaps exist between close and open. in a uptrending market the gaps more likely gap up., in a downtrending market the gaps more likely gap down.
it is beyond my comprehension how a “Bespoke Investment Group” manages to gain investors for their fund with such a “on paper written crap which everyone knows anyways”, the investors to that fund must be of pretty high level of studidity or of very little knowledge of basic econom,y procedures, rules and numbers.
Now seeing the fund originates from ireland i can as well understand why this type of retarded commercial works out for that fund in gaining investors. besides the UK, almost every country in europe the average citizen is a complete illiterate when it comes to any economic or market knowledge.
Tell us how you REALLY feel!!! LOL!!!
Be interesting to test the theory though. Does seem like a bit of an outlandish claim. But one would really like to think that an article (not an advertisement so far as I can tell) that appears in the NYT has at least some modicum of truth. Then again: probably a dumb statement to be making on my part too.
no it isnt dumb of you at all. but tbh in todays times you can not trust the “expertize” of people, especially not journalists. Just because he “studied” journalism doesnt mean he knows about economies or market practices.
imo the “Bespoke Investment Group” took the chance by writing a few pages on something obvious and “sold” it to the journalist as free and research knowledge so they can land up in the new york times and promote their fund in that way free of charge. respect for them by promoting themselves with a very resource and money saving way. for the journalist “Minh Uong” i can only say “go back to school dude, youre lacking the knowledge to be writing on SE topics”.
in fact it is andvertisement. its a “usefull idiot” advertisement where “Bespoke Investment Group” took advantage free of charge of a journalist.
Yesterday’s API inventories release snuffed out any attempts to push prices higher, reporting a weekly build of 3.545 mill barrels compared with an anticipated draw in crude inventories. There were also reported builds in gasoline and, in particular, distillates too.
inventories data for this year to date has now shown an overall build approaching some 30 mill barrels and, when considering that US shale production continues at record levels, it is interesting to compare current prices with those at the start of the year.
After the last gasp drop in prices just prior to last Christmas, we saw a quick bounce back to price levels similar to where we are now - and we held there for a prolonged period during January and early February.
These levels represent B/E prices for many producer nations, although shale companies are apparently profitable even from price levels around 40-45USD, and prices below here start to breach the pain threshold for the budgets of these nations. Saudi Arabia, for example, prefers a price level around 80-85 USD.
Therefore it is no surprise that we are starting to hear pep talk about how OPEC will do all it takes to maintain balance in the markets - which in this case has to imply countering this steady increase in inventories - i.e. the current OPEC voluntary restricted production will no doubt continue to the year end following their upcoming meeting in a few weeks time.
So, with continuing concerns about possible global recessions from the ongoing trade wars capping the market and practical production cost factors putting a floor under it, we are perhaps back in that same old broad range where we were at the start of the year.
This would seem to be also underlined by the fact that the original collapse in prices from last autumn also paused around the levels in November prior to that last gasp drop in December that was so rapidly reversed back up to where we are again now.
So we can maybe expect some muted range trading in the near term unless and until we start to see some positive concrete results from trade deals - or a serious slip into a major recession as currently being predicted from the inverted interest rate yield curves.
Personally, i am thinking maybe it is time to cautiously return to the traditional approach of buying commodities when “cheap” and selling for a profit. But, having said that, the technicals are still currently in bear territory and the market is still vulnerable from here.
Today, we see the EIA version of US crude inventories etc and that may add some spice to the broth.
The EIA release repeated the earlier API release confirming another large weekly build in crude oil inventories. With the technicals still, as mentioned earlier, in bear territory, this easily led to a drop in prices to the bottom of the range we have seen previously at the beginning of this year (mentioned above).
One interesting technical factor is the Weekly 200SMA which we have just crossed below today - but being a weekly level, its relevance as a break is only significant at the close on Friday - but it is a significant level. We have dipped below it before and recovered, but the global economic situation is rather different nowadays and any major signs of weakness in growth will likely push us lower before we regain some ground from here.
I am still reluctant to hold any short positions any more and would prefer to start adding some small long positions on any weakness - unless we close on Friday below that 200 SMA line, that is…
Nice analysis.
Way I figure it: we’re either bouncing or turning at $50 or thereabouts or we’re going down. You know what I do so any retracement would suit me. Both of my longs were in pretty darn good shape until these figures were released.
To be honest, Dale, the technical picture is looking quite horrible for oil, and even more so when one compares it with the equities market, which seems to be finding a firm footing again (but for how long and how far!).
My anticipation (also) of a bottoming around $50ish is more based on fundamental producer B/E and the OPEC declaration of doing “all it takes” to balance oil supply/demand - and that for them “balance” means a significantly higher price than where we are now.
But the technical picture - at least on my analysis methods is still solidly bearish. But I have today taken a small long position as a long term “investment” but I will close it on Friday if we do not close back above that weekly SMA.
But I admit to being a bit out of touch right now as I have some other things going on for another week or so. I just spent a long weekend in the UK but, I regret, not at the invitation of President Trump or the Queen! 
and am now trying to catch up a bit.
How have you been doing?
Belated greetings from Cambridge UK…
I hear you.
One thing I have just been looking at here and bearing in mind we’re talking commodities:
RSI(14). Oil oversold. Gold overbought. NASDAQ oversold. Have not bothered to check the rest. No guarantees of course i.e. could stay oversold and overbought for a time. Could turn too of course. Been some stellar trades based on this over the past few months though. Just saying.
Will admit that with Oil: I’d feel a lot more comfortable if ADX(14) stopped accelerating and turned down. Right now it’s still climbing strong. And it’s pretty darn good at indicating markets where the trend is running out of steam.
But what can I do. As I was saying to somebody else a bit earlier: I cannot start trading my system on a discretionary basis. The times that I’ve done that have always ended in tears. Seems as though there is some type of fine balance between taking profits as indicated and realizing losses on the same basis. So I guess if it comes to that: just gotta take the losses and move on. As things stand right now: even if my stops were hit (and they are a LONG way away) then I’d lose just under twice the amount of profit I have made this week so that would equate to about 2.5% loss overall. I can live with that.
Oil prices held up ok in the Far East this morning with no follow-through on the EIA bearish data, which is encouraging. But i have had a change of heart on my position and scratched it this morning with a few green pips.
Whilst i still think we are at a watershed level here and both producer breakeven cost levels and OPEC objectives suggest we should bottom around here, i cannot (should not) ignore my technical setup which is still negative.
It is very rare for me to pre-empt change in my technicals and, although there is evidence for a good bounce from here, there are other disturbing issues such as the global growth reaction to trade wars and (ab)use of tariff weapons that suggest this is not the time to pre-empt anything.
So, although my outlook has not radically altered, i would rather miss the start of any potential bounce and wait for technical justification before building a position than risk holding on through a possible drawdown period before higher levels are again realised.
We are not in a normal situation globally at present and applying normal thought processes based on historicically typical market actions/reactions carries its own risks…
So back to sitting on hands and watching…
Nice post as usual.
I reckon I could say with a fair degree of certainty (if there be such a thing in this business) when this turn down has run out of steam. People slate Wilder’s ADX but just take a look at how the ADX line reacts at these points. And it’s normally only one day late. You know: people ain’t happy if something doesn’t pinpoint the EXACT turning point to the tick!!! Anyway. First downturn of ADX signifies a pause at very least. But as Wilder correctly states: it’s not uncommon for ADX to turn down and then turn up again as the market blows off (final) steam (words to that effect). And then of course there is RSI(14). A peek above 30 could also signal such pause of reversal. So those are my technicals.
Is this a different trading strategy to your TPS RSI(2) method? If the ADX is that accurate how does that synch with the concept of position building on successive highs/lows?
I also believe indicators such as RSI and ADX can have some additional value at certain times but to be honest whenever I have tetsed such off-screen indicators I have found that I end up not looking at them because my own chart setup is already telling me the same thing, And so these are really just taking up screen space… But that is just my experience! 
It’s not something I trade at all. Both are trend following indicators and Wilder has systems developed based on them. My problem is that I always miss the trades. Have looked at the possibility of incorporating RSI(14) overbought and oversold readings with my TPS system but fantastic as the theory may be: I’d probably get about two trades per year maximum. And that would not do let’s face it. If it’s alright with you maybe I’ll post about these things and show you what I’m looking at and why. Also will upload Wilder’s book in which all of these indicators that he developed as well as their PROPER use is detailed. But let me know i.e. that may attract undue attention to your thread. Could post on mine I guess (certainly not much traffic over there let’s face it).
Or maybe even a new thread dedicated to WW himself - and maybe even other famous TA developers and their products - could be interesting as a topic in general and also helpful for others interested in learning/sharing experiences with these. My own TA “career” also started off with WW’s works but I haven’t really used them actively for some years now. But that doesn’t mean they are not useful!
But I would prefer to keep this thread oil-based, if that is ok?
That’s perfectly fine with me.
Dunno about starting a new thread though. I can tell you that somewhere in the archive here there are THOUSANDS of pages of posts on Wilder’s stuff (posted by guess who!!! LOL!!!). But think I’ll just post a little off topic thingy about it on my own thread which I’m sure you’ll stumble over sometime.
OK. I will try to keep up there too, although another week of building stuff is going to keep me away from BP a bit!
Quite a seesaw day today. Looked like quite a battle between the bulls and the bears.
We have just managed to break up to that Weekly 200SMA, which gave at least a couple of nice intraday trades for a total of 76 pips. I am more than content with this on such a rock and roll day - but I will still be looking for a close above this line tomorrow before I can think of a longer term position.
I haven’t had a chance to check if there is any news behind today’s move - but worth remembering that tomorrow is NFP day and that may work some more magic here and at least provide the solution as to which side of that weekly 200SMA we end up on…
Don’t trade oil, but always appreciate your analysis.
That is very gratifying to hear, thank you! 
I am not very consistent with updating on a regular basis but that is mainly because i don’t generally really think anyone reads this stuff! So it is always very encouraging to hear when someone does!
I should perhaps try to be a little more regular and try to provide more continuity in the flow of things and not just think i am talking to myself!
Quick note:
Seems today’s rally in oil prices was due to rumours that the US may well postpone the threatened tariffs on Mexico if current talks continue well. But as far as i can tell, President Trump had not actually agreed to such a move yet. The first 5% will probably be imposed on Monday in any case.
Considering the overwhelming bearish news from the EIA yesterday in unexpectedly high builds in crude inventories, gasoline and diesel, today’s rally demonstrates the dominance of economic growth issues over oil supply surpluses on oil prices.
