You trade a new product - “Trumps”
Weak USD, low interest rates, low oil prices, low taxes, strong stock market, strong exports/ intl trade balance. Whatever is working against those objectives will be “tweeted” back into line ----- when the timing is right!
Seems to me that there are three types of trading environments that one can consider in this light - two of which are probably doing just fine - and a third which is struggling.
Long term traders. Mr Trump’s tweets do not appear so contradictory on longer term moves. E.g. the SP500 and Crude Oil have seen some very long and steady moves over the past 9 months and have only recently gone into a neutral stance.
Short term traders. The 1m-15m TF traders probably do well on these moves like we saw yesterday. These TFs are not based on fundamentals anyway, just on an ability to jump in (and out) fast. Their problem is avoiding whipsaws - which is nothing new on this scale.
Then there are the medium term swing-type traders. Maybe this group is the most likely to be in trades whenever the surprise tweets occur, and probably mostly with only a relatively small open gain at the time. These also have relatively nearby stops which are within the range of reactions to such tweets. For this group there are neither fundamental nor technical models to predict the timings of these events. Also, the psychological uncertainty over what might happen “today” is far greater than for long term and very short term traders.
But I do not think Mr Trump is erratic in his objectives at all. It is only the likely timings that maybe we should focus on more. For example, it was obvious that the US/China trade war was not going to continue indefinitely without further negotiations. It was all about when these would restart not if.
We just have to adjust and get smart in a different kind of way!