Bank of America Sees Risk of $30 Oil If China Devalues Yuan
I’ve been caught on the wrong side of a sneaky and stealthy Yuan overnight devaluation before.
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Interesting thoughts in that article!
I think this quote pretty much sums up all things global at present:
"…the scenario wasn’t particularly likely, but wasn’t crazy either. "
which kind of says anything goes!
At first glance it does seem a rather curious, if not crazy, idea to devalue the Yuan to keep exports and the Chinese economy rolling by countering the impact of US tariffs - but at the cost of increased oil prices which has the equivalent dampening effect of the same economy!
But China has a very long term plan and a blip of negativity during the relatively brief reign of Mr Trump (even with another 4 years) is not going to worry them so very much at this stage, I think?
And I am sure that if they go as far as to restore oil purchases from Iran then they will be able to negotiate some very suitable price deals (but hardly likely before their meeting).
This is indeed the other side of the “Grand Canyon” divide between oil- affecting factors right now. The Trump/Jinping meeting on Saturday (?) is not expected to produce anything more than an agreement to resume talks - talks which may continue without results for months. Both sides seem to be setting up their opposing preludes of “not coming to the table with concessions already in mind” and “negotiating requires an acceptance of the need for compromise” - that does not create a very positive anticipation regarding the outcome!
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This is why I bang on (mainly to new traders) about not even bothering with fundamentals.
Just scroll back on your own thread to see what I mean. Even if you (any person I mean) understood this stuff: how would you be able to trade it. You’d be jumping from one leg to the other on a daily basis.
Bloomberg is running a special at the moment so i took advantage of it i.e. $9.99 for three months (otherwise I’d not have it as I cancelled satellite as you know). So I have this on 24/7 now again. And even I am flabbergasted at the number of contrarian opinions and analyses broadcast by so-called experts in their field on any given day (Gold and Oil being but two at the moment that are in vogue). And I’m not talking about vague speculation i.e. I’m talking about black and white or binary differences of opinion.
There is a big difference between trading fundamentals and following market events. I read a lot about what is going on in the oil markets because I am seriously interested in the industry and all aspects of it - including all the countries that are active in it. Most of human life as we know it is affected by oil prices and the petrochemical industry!
But I agree with you about trading it. I never take trades that do not reflect my technical analysis. In fact most fundamental news is way beyond “lagging” that most TA guys moan about with indicators!
In my opinion, there is no problem with finding entries. It is optimising the exits that causes most difficulties, I think.
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Nice post. And point noted i.e. the difference between trading fundamentals and following market events. Obviously I confuse the two most always.
And you are quite right if any of my “hero pro. traders” are to be believed (all those books I spent loads on). There is a common theme throughout (well more than one I suppose but as it relates to exiting). John F. Carter puts it nice:
“Entries are a dime-a-dozen. Profits are in the exits.”
Hmmmm, I’ve been thinking about what you said here.
Maybe I shouldn’t write so much fundi stuff which is of no use (or interest!) to anyone else. My purpose with this thread has been as a kind of personal notebook. I find writing stuff down helps immensely with clarifying one’s thoughts and perspectives.
But I think you are right, I am not doing anyone any good here by simply regurgitating what is already available elsewhere on the net - and what is not really helpful from a trading perspective either!
I will keep my thoughts to myself instead! 
As a longer term trader - and perhaps that’s not a good futures/commodities strat? - I’ve been watching it tick higher! Thinking - without regret - about my TA earlier. Gave myself a gold star on the forehead!!
Richard Ney railed against this decades ago - pre-interweb. Said that all the news/opinion is curve fitted or in some cases simply marketing developed by the markets for the markets then fed to the media and the folks behind the markets take price to where they want for their own enrichment.
He wrote “The Wall Street Gang” and the “Wall Street Jungle” Both were a big “eye-openers” for me. However, given the tech revolution and era of the “Flash Boys” I’ve been wondering if his revalations still hold true.
[quote=“Manxx, post:961, topic:83773”]
It is optimising the exits that causes most difficulties, I think.
[/quote] True for me! Which is actually a very silly statement.
Not sure if that’s a good idea. I believe the discussion of thoughts or the opportunity to explore new information or a different perspective is invaluable - I’ve learned so many, much more big words since I joined BPs!!
Perception is an interesting thing and ones ability to change that within one’s self is very limited without external input or information to avail one’s self to.
Stepping off my soap box now…
KC
Just for the record, just in case anyone should have got lost and wandered this way, I have continued this thread with my thoughts on Crude Oil and other things here:
Surgically remove Iran’s Terrorist Master General Qasem Soleimani… 
Stupidly shoot down a Commercial Airliner and take 2 days to finally admit the truth…
“Protests against authorities have spread across Iran including in the capital Tehran, Shiraz, Esfahan, Hamedan and Orumiyeh, reportedly calling for supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei to resign.”
And now it looks as if there may be enough unrest in Iran to cause a regime change from within by its own citizens and the “Trumpstar” will not even have to authorise a shot…
They are not the brightest bulbs in the chandelier, now are they… CS
There is always a risk in such investment. I invest in crude oil and gas. I buy some shares of Delek Drilling and got great returns. Hopefully I will get good returns for long time.
What to expect in nearest days from oil and gold futures amid most-talked-about coronavirus?