Crude Oil Falls, US Dollar Rallies Despite OPEC and Inventories Release

Crude oil rallied overnight on the surprise news that OPEC would cut production, but bullish Department of Energy Crude Inventories results were nontheless not enough to keep oil prices bid. The US dollar has responded in kind, trading higher in near-lockstep with the NYMEX-traded West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contract, as the correlation between Oil prices and the Euro/US dollar is at its highest since the inception of the euro.

                                   Sep 5
                                   US Crude Inventories (AUG 29)
                                   Sep 5
                                   US Gasoline Inventories (AUG 29)
                                   Sep 5
                                   US Distillate Inventory (AUG 29)

In fact, Crude Inventories fell significantly more than expected—typically a sign that the market is undersupplied and prices will rise through the short term. Yet we saw the opposite happen, and the WTI contract is at risk for further declines if it is unable to hold recent support levels at the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 57.44-148.19 move at 102.82.

[B]Crude Oil Daily Chart