I only place the daily Pivot line on all my charts but not any of the other levels associated with the Pivot, such as Classic, Camarilla, Fibonnacci etc. The only purpose that I use the core daily Pivot line for is to determine whether price is currently moving towards or away from the previous day's weighted average level i.e. the Pivot line.
I interpret this as follows: If the price is moving inwards towards the Pivot then it is directionless relative to the previous day and tends to be a bit choppy and erratic. But if it is moving away from the Pivot then it suggests price is either continuing the trend or retracing/reversing it, and the action is often smoother and stronger/longer lasting. I cannot comment on the effectiveness of the other pivot lines, but I would not be surprised that they often work as the oil market does seem to respect technical levels quite well.
That sounds very reasonable. So far I have tended to prefer trading the 1Hour and 15 min TFs. I know nothing about tick bars, etc.
If you use MA's, I suggest you do not try using a crossover method for entry AND exit. These only tend to work in good trending markets and whip like crazy in ranging markets. I think they are useful for identfying entry starts and confirming trend continuations, but maybe something else is better for the exit decisions (always the hardest bit!). But I guess you are already aware of this as you have been trading forex already for some years!
I do use a kind of momentum line but I don't usually show it on the charts I post here because it is irrelevant and clutters up the chart. It is not reliable on its own as a trading method but does give a good indication when a move is running out of steam - here is a 1H chart showing just this line without anything else, I think you can see that when the candles move below the ribbon then it is running out of energy . And when the ribbon actually crosses back, often it is a sign that the market is reversing:
Hmmmm, this is a difficult one! I have been trading for so many years that I don't really calculate this very mechanically any more. I just put on the size position that intuitively fits my assessment of the trade "quality". For example, that EURGBP that I mentioned earlier was such a strong signal with a good feel about it that I put on a big size and just looked for it to run down to at least the previous low. In other words, it was a fixed target trade. In other circumstances, or overnight, I will put on a half size or even smaller or scale out.
I guess most of my trades with oil are tending to be nominally 50/50, looking for around 50 pips target and a 45+spread 5 stop. But I always trim both targets and stops to nearby highs/lows, S/Rs, psychological numbers etc. But I also tend to monitor my trades and close out whenever it seems appropriate (e.g. if it just falls short of my target and looks like falling back then I take what I can get), I don't recall that I have ever yet actually had a 50 pip stoploss because I always close out if I get a reverse trade signal (e.g. from a 15m chart) or more often, a crossover in that momentum ribbon - and that tends to usually happen before it has dropped so far as 50 pips. But, as I said, earlier, I trade on a discretionary basis and it is hard to generalise what my actual ratios are!
On the other hand, I do monitor my overall ongoing P/L very closely and I do as a rule keep my individual trade risks in proportion to my overall profitability. I do not trade for a living, my only interest is capital building and a few "treats along the way" . I think R/R is a much bigger issue if one tries to earn a living from forex. I wouldn't want to have to trade under that kind of pressure!
My success rate has been surprisingly high so far, around 80%, I guess (much better than when I traded forex!). But I am an extremely cautious trader. For example, today, I have done four trades and all of them fairly brief but all of them in profit -but none of them anywhere near 50 pips!!!!
I also think that is good. My spreads are 5 pips, but I have seen 6 (I think it was Tickmill) and also 2-3 (which I think was maybe Oanda?)
Do mean for correlation? I have read that there is a loose correlation between USD movements and oil prices since oil is almost always priced in USD which in theory affects the price that buyers pay in their own currencies and therefore how much oil they can buy for the same amount of domestic currency. But I have not noticed any close correlation on such short timeframes that we trade. Maybe on a monthly basis? I don't really know, I haven't studied that.
But I have noticed that for example the USD reactions to NFP releases do not impact anywhere near as much on the oil price. So if there is a correlation, I think it might be too loose to be of any serious use as a predictor of oil price movements.
Sounds like you are moving fast! I like your enthusiasm!
Nice evening to you, too!