The EURGBP is approaching an intermediate term peak (month +) and the EURCAD may be on the verge of a a head and shoulders neckline break. The Yen crosses are poised to surge higher. Buy dips near support.
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[B]Euro / British Pound[/B]
The EURGBP is closing in on the objective of .9466 (which is where the rally from .9076 would equal the .8453-.8843 advance). This is also close to former chart resistance at .9507. A larger 4th wave correction that takes at least a month is then expected to unfold. Coming under .9266 would suggest that a top is in place.
[B]Euro / Swiss Franc[/B]
“There is little to say about the EURCHF technically and there will not be until the pair breaks from the triangle. The fight between bulls and bears wages on in a triangle that has been underway since October. Triangles are typically continuation patterns, so a downside break seems more probable. Still, forecasting is an exercise in probabilities rather than certainties so jump the gun at your own risk. Pushing through either the top of bottom line triangle line would present a breakout opportunity.” The triangle count shown above is bearish but a bullish outcome is just as probable. Wave a would be A and wave B would be a triangle.
[B]Euro / Canadian Dollar[/B]
A head and shoulders top has been unfolding since January 2008. Price is right at the neckline now but the decline is impulsive in structure. 1.5390-1.5440 is a resistance area and price ideally remains below 1.5500 with 1.5662 begin the line in the sand. 1.5000 is a short term objective (161.8% extension of wave 1).
[B]Euro / Australian Dollar[/B]
“As mentioned in recent weeks, daily momentum studies are divergent with price lows. This warns of a low, but until a bullish price pattern emerges, going long is dangerous.” The EURAUD continues lower and there is little likelihood of any support until 1.6040. 1.5920 is former support as well and intersects with a downward sloping line on October 21st.
[B]Euro / New Zealand Dollar[/B]
The EURNZD has also continued on its path lower. The lower support line is at 1.9504 today and decreases 22 pips per day. Trading above the steep downward sloping resistance line would begin to suggest reversal.
[B]Euro / Japanese Yen[/B]
A B wave triangle is complete at 129 and expectations are for a C wave rally that carries the EURJPY to the mid 140s (at least). Measured objectives are 144.73 and 154.44. 132.36 and 131.50/70 are support areas. Price should stay above 129.56.
[B]British Pound / Japanese Yen[/B]
The GBPJPY may be close to completing wave i of larger 5 down. Trading through 144.60 would confirm that wave i is complete and project a move towards the 149.00-150.00 area. Until a rally through 144.60, the pair remains vulnerable to further losses.
[B]Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen[/B]
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The CHFJPY is in the same position as the EURJPY. Is the multi month range a consolidation or reversal? Time will tell. Having held the support line and turned up with conviction, the upside looks more probable at this point. Structurally, the entire advance from the December 2008 low may be a complex W-X-Y correction (wave X is a triangle). Objectives are 94.86 and 100.74. 87.19 and 86.75 are support levels.
[B]Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen[/B]
The decline from 90.41 is a complex correction (double zigzag) that should be entirely retraced. 85.70-86.05 is a support zone and price ideally stays above 84.23 in order to keep the impulsive structure intact (no overlapping waves). Again, a new high (above 90.41) is expected eventually.
[B]Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen[/B]
AThe AUDJPY decline from 82.05 is of the complex corrective form as well. 80.74 and 80.08 are levels where one should expect support. Other crosses present better opportunities however.
[B]New Zealand Dollar / Japanese Yen[/B]
A clear wave pattern can be seen in the structure of the NZDJPY rally since February. The advance is an A-B-C correction with wave C as a diagonal. Reversals following diagonals are usually sharp (but the diagonal is probably not complete yet). A target is 69.10, which is the 100% extension of wave A.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (Monday), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Follow his intraday market commentary atDailyFX Forex Stream.
[I]Contact Jamie at <[email protected]> if you would like to receive his reports via email.[/I]