Currency score Wk 44 and review Hybrid Grid Strategy Wk 43&44 / 26-10-2014

Commercial Content Analysts
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[I]Information provided today: I will provide here the currency score and later on this day I will update this thread with the review on the Hybrid Grid strategy.

[/I]In this article I will provide my analysis and the FxTaTrader Currency Scrore chart which is my view on the 8 major currencies based on the Technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indacator on 4 time frames, the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. See for full details the page Currency score explained on my blog FxTaTrader.com.

The FxTaTrader Forex Currency Score chart is meaningful data for my FxTaTrader Hybrid Grid strategy. Besides this chart I also provide my weekly analysis on my strategy and the Forex ranking and rating list which is available 3 times a week on this blog.

[ul]
[li]The USD, GBP and CAD are currently the stronger currencies. The EUR, JPY and NZD are the weaker currencies. The best pairs to look at are a combination of those currencies.[/li][li]Currencies with a score of 4 and 5, meaning the CHF and the AUD are difficult to trade because they are in the middle of the range.[/li][li]Conclusion for going long is that for the coming week it seems best to go long with the USD, GBP and the CAD. However the CAD is an average performer from a longer term prespective so it does not have the preference. More details can be fond later in this article.[/li][li]For the weaker currencies the conclusion is that for the coming week it seems best to go short with the EUR, JPY and NZD. However the JPY is an average performer from a longer term prespective so it does not have the preference. More details can be fond later in this article.[/li][li]The best combinations for the coming week also according to the Forex Ranking and Rating list and the TA charts are the EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, USD/JPY and the NZD/USD. These pairs are having a good ranking in the ranking & rating list of resp. 1, 2, 3 and 6. See the Weekly FxTaTrader ranking and rating list.[/li][li]There are some rules for taking positions according to the FxTaTrader Hybrid Grid Strategy. The strategy can open multiple positions of a currency pair but each currency may only be present once in the pairs chosen for trading. It means that not all the possible positions of coming week can be opened. For more information see FxTaTrader Hybrid Grid Strategy.[/li][li]Last week (pending) orders were placed for the NZD/USD, EUR/USD and the GBP/CAD. Profit was made on 3 positions and losses on 2 and ending the week higher. More on this in my strategy article later this day.[/li][/ul]
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[B]Average performing currencies

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In the previous weeks we looked into the weaker and stronger currencies from a longer term perspective using the data of the Currency Score. In this article the average performing currencies will be handled. This way there is a clear view on the best combinations to trade for the coming period. Unless these currencies go complete to the upper or lower side of the range they remain interesting as the average performing currencies and their possibilities as such. As can be seen in the chart above the currencies do almost not touch the upper and lower range.

These currencies can best be traded taking long positions against the weaker currencies and short positions against the stronger currencies. It is best not to trade them against each other because of the continues shifting of strength between each other. When trading against the stronger and weaker currencies the average performing currencies may becomes stronger or weaker but they will in general not get to the score of the currencies traded against. Of course the TA charts play an important part but using this analysis gives already in general a good shifting in what to trade or not.

Last week (pending) orders were placed for the GBP/CAD where the GBP is the stronger currency and the CAD is the average performing currency. Because of the current pull back in the daily chart this pair offers possibilities.

[ul]
[li]As can be seen in the Currency Score chart above, the CAD is having a score of 5 but it is an average performing currency meaning that this score may be the highest for the time being.[/li][li]The rank in the Ranking and Rating list in the last weeks shows also that the pair is attractive for taking long positions.[/li][li]the pull back in the specific GBP/CAD pair and the outlook in the TA charts makes it also an attractive opportunity.[/li][/ul]

More about this pair in my next article today “Review FxTaTrader Strategy Wk 43&44”.

The AUD is currently ranked here as an average performing currencies but it was a stronger currency for a long time. This can be seen in the graph above. If the AUD goes back to the upper range then it behaves as before in the previous months and it will be again a stronger currency. However, the last dip was very low and longer than expected compared to before. For now this currency is an average performing currency after the doubt of the previous weeks. More information can be read in my previous “Currency score” articles.

This analysis makes it possible to look at currencies from a longer term perspective and provides the inner-strength which cannot always be seen clearly when looking at different charts of a currency and its counterparts. It is an additional analysis that can be used besides the Technical analysis charts and the Forex Ranking and Rating list and it may also diminish risk.
[B] ___________________________________________

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Later on this day I will provide the weekly review on my FxTaTrader Hybrid Grid strategy. Good luck to all of you in your trading the coming week.

Although the explanation may seem simple and clear there is always risk involved. I added a disclaimer to my blog for this purpose. If you like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL www.FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article.

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In this article I will provide my view on the NZD/USD, EUR/USD and the GBP/CAD. These are the pairs that I am currently interested in or was interested in last week for trading with the Hybrid Grid strategy.

This articles will provide:

[ul]
[li]The weekly currency chart for the interesting pairs.[/li][li]The daily(timing) chart for the interesting pairs.[/li][li]Possible positions for the coming week and positions taken.[/li][li]According to the TA Charts, the “Currency score” and the “Ranking & Rating list” the EUR/USD is the best pair to trade followed by the EUR/GBP, USD/JPY and the NZD/USD. The pairs comply to the strategy rules for the FxTaTrader Hybrid Grid strategy.[/li][li]These pairs are having a good ranking in the ranking & rating list of resp. 1, 2, 3 and 6. See the Weekly FxTaTrader ranking and rating list.[/li][li]Last week (pending) orders were placed for the NZD/USD, EUR/USD and the GBP/CAD. Profit was made on 3 positions and losses on 2 and ending the week higher.[/li][/ul]
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[B]Open/pending positions of last week

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GBP/CAD

The situation compared to last weeks has not changed very much for going long and this pair remains interesting for the Hybrid Grid strategy. Because of the current pull back in the daily chart this pair offers possibilities. Last week (pending) orders were placed for this pair where the GBP is the stronger currency and the CAD is the average performing currency. Profit was made on 2 positions.

[ul]
[li]As can be seen in the Currency Score chart in my previous article of today “Forex Currency Score Wk 44”, the CAD is having a score of 5 but it is an average performing currency meaning that this score may be the highest for the time being.[/li][li]The rank in the Ranking and Rating list in the last weeks shows also that the pair is attractive for taking long positions. This list is used as additional information besides the Currency score and the Technical analysis charts.[/li][li]Besides the general information mentioned the pull back in the specific GBP/CAD pair and the outlook in the TA charts makes it also an attractive opportunity.[/li][/ul]
The rank in the Ranking and Rating is not in the Top 10 and this is mainly because price is within the Ichimoku cloud in the 4H chart but this seems as temporary for several other technical reasons when looking in more detail at this indicator. The MACD is in negative territory but recovering.

Ranking and rating list Week 44

Rank: 17
Rating: = +

Weekly Currency score: Up

Based on the currency score the pair looks mixed in the last 3 months but the GBP is the stronger currency. The GBP showed 1 dip in that period and recovered fast. The CAD had 2 dips and the last one showed a clear difference in performance of the 2 currencies. From a longer term perspective the CAD is an average performing currency while the GBP is a stronger currency. See for more information my previous article of today “Forex Currency Score Wk 44”. Based only on this information the pair looks interesting for going long.


[B]

Monthly chart: Up[/B]

[ul]
[li]On the monthly(context) chart the indicators are looking reasonable for going long.[/li][li]The Ichimoku is meeting all the conditions. The Kijun-Sen is however in the cloud so a pull back in that direction can take place. This is however from a longer term perspective.[/li][li]The MACD is in positive area but showing consolidation having the histogram weakening.[/li][li]The Parabolic SAR is long and showing the preferred pattern of higher stop loss on opening of new long and short positions.[/li][li]Since the monthly chart is used to get the context where that pair is in for the long term the indicators are looking fine because they are showing reasonable strength in the current up trend.[/li][/ul]

Weekly chart: Neutral

[ul]
[li]On the weekly(decision) chart the indicators are looking weak for going long but still good enough since the direction is up.[/li][li]The Ichimoku is meeting all the conditions but the pull back was significant with price near the bullish cloud.[/li][li]The MACD is in positive territory but near the zero line. The histogram is showing that the consolidation period is almost ending.[/li][li]The Parabolic SAR is going long but not showing the preferred pattern of lower stop loss on opening of new long and short positions. However the previous switch from short to long and short again was a very short period. It was caused by a 2 days higher price, 4 and 5 August, and without counting this event the preferred pattern looks intact. In essence the preferred pattern is not shown but the reason for not being there is a small one and the PSAR changed last week to long so all in all this indicator looks neutral.[/li][/ul]

Daily chart: Up

[ul]
[li]On the daily(timing) chart the indicators are looking strong for going long.[/li][li]The Ichimoku is meeting all the conditions.[/li][li]The MACD is in positive territory. The indicator is showing higher bottoms.[/li][li]The Parabolic SAR is not going long but showing the preferred pattern of higher stop loss on opening of new long and short positions.[/li][/ul]

Total outlook: Up

388×580

[B]GBP/CAD Daily chart

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[/B]EUR/USD

This pair will be discussed briefly in this article because it has been discussed in a previous article in the period of Weeks 41 & 42. The situation has improved compared to last week for taking short positions. The pair is no more oversold according to the FxTaTrader Hybrid strategy rules. According to this a pair is overbought/oversold once it is above/below the Weekly Bollinger Band. The pair is interesting for going short and for the FxTaTrader Hybrid Grid strategy. The monthly and weekly chart remain interesting for going short.
Because of the current pull back in the daily chart this pair offers possibilities. Last week (pending) orders were placed for this pair where the USD is the stronger currency and the EUR the weaker currency. Profit was made on 1 position.

[ul]
[li]In the daily chart the Ichimoku remained unchanged and same interesting since the last article on this pair.[/li][li]The MACD is now showing some strength building up for going short according to the histogram.[/li][li]The Parabolic SAR has improved. It is now going short and showing the preferred pattern of lower stop loss on opening of new long and short positions.[/li][/ul]

Ranking and rating list Week 44

Rank: 1
Rating: - - -

Total outlook: Down
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NZD/USD

This pair will be discussed briefly in this article because it has been discussed in a previous article in the period of Weeks 42 & 43. The situation has improved compared to last week for taking short positions. The pair is no more oversold according to the FxTaTrader Hybrid strategy rules. According to this a pair is overbought/oversold once it is above/below the Weekly Bollinger Band. The pair is interesting for going short and for the FxTaTrader Hybrid Grid strategy. The monthly and weekly chart remain interesting for going short.

Because of the current pull back in the daily chart this pair offers possibilities. Last week (pending) orders were placed for this pair where the USD is the stronger currency and the NZD the weaker currency. However, the pull back was stronger than expected and the 2 short positions were closed because the stop loss got hit on 21-10-2014 at 06:35 C.E.T. One of the positions was opened just before because the Sell Limit was hit and it remained open for just 50 sec. This was a very unlucky situation where price went up and came back within 1 minute and moved up about 30 pips from being around 0.8000 jumping to 0.8033. The stop loss was set at 0.8035 but it got hit anyway. Although this is unfortunate it can always happen and the alternative of using no stop loss at all is worse. The only thing that can be done about this is trying to time better. Once price is over the last recent top it is best to take short positions, however this is not always easy. Anyway the direction was good and without the stop loss getting hit profit would have been made. Some losses were compensated by going short on the EUR/USD which looked weaker in that period. Also the 2 positions taken in the GBP/CAD made that the week was ended with profit.

The analysis of this pair is almost similar as the EUR/USD and the comment here below is exactly the same.

[ul]
[li]In the daily chart the Ichimoku remained unchanged and same interesting since the last article on this pair.[/li][li]The MACD is now showing some strength building up for going short according to the histogram.[/li][li]The Parabolic SAR has improved. It is now going short and showing the preferred pattern of lower stop loss on opening of new long and short positions.[/li][/ul]

Ranking and rating list Week 44

Rank: 6
Rating: - -

Total outlook: Down

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Although the explanation may seem simple and clear there is always risk involved. I added a disclaimer to my blog for this purpose. If you like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week and don’t forget to check my weekly Forex “Ranking and Rating list” and the “Currency Score”.