Above was last day of Oct 23 - price made it as high as almost 152 and then backed off right down to 140 - then in came the buyers yet again early Jan - aware of the 150 level perhaps - a safe cushion.
This time almost 151 and guess what - heading south yet again with a push down on the back of BOJ comments
Like I commented some months back -
That was 2 wks back - the level then was 5086 - here’s what happened at that level hr4 since.
The levels have it.
The pair is clearly rising since April and continues to do so after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) warns about the inflation.
Yet, the kiwi comes face to with the resistance level at 62.15 and the daily RSI is near overboght condition.
Trading Direction: Short
While since I posted re S&P and it’s upward trajectory.
Very often retail guys will bet against price - the expectation being that price ‘must’ reverse ( called gamblers fallacy)
Anyways long story short stocks rise because earning rise (amongst other things)
This from Carson 8 mins ago
Market Commentary: Earnings in the Long Run, and Short — Carson Wealth
That was just over 6 months back - was it accurate?
How fundamentals can change - today is 2 years since …
The yield curve inverted - the harbinger of a bear market - or so it has always been.
So what happened the recession that many guys -including the experts on BP - were warning of.
It’s still to come they say.
Earnings make the market - let’s see.
Thought I’d do a little update - I posted on March 7 re S&P levels - monitoring these levels can be important - ‘Pivotal Points’ as Jesse Livermore called them (not to be confused with pivot points)
Anyways there were 2 levels in the chart i posted (see below) 5086 and 5158
In the recent pull back on stocks these levels played a role:
Two days back see the level 5454.20 when I posted.
Cisco posted their earnings after the close which was a beat - Walmart same 24 hrs later
See how the level held next morning - bulls buoyed with the earnings -(chart below)
As Ryan Detrick posted 1 hr back:
Congratulations to those who ignored the fear mongering.
And so it continues - the above level was 5559 - today 5753
That’s not really the lesson, today is the 1st Friday and the lesson is in the numbers.
Services are the largest employer in US - around 70% - so surprise surprise a positive non farm payroll:
United States ISM Services PMI (tradingeconomics.com)
:
Great initiative, Peter! It’s fascinating how current affairs shape market sentiment, especially with your experience in Euro/GBP trading. I’m looking forward to your insights on how USD, gold, and the stock/bond markets influence EG’s direction. Let’s see where this discussion takes us!
EG has been on a downward path for a couple of years now - now rumbling along 83.00 - a support level (monthly chart)
Gold is interesting, it’s doing it’s own thing regardless of geo political, USD, Rates, Bonds so the question is what is driving price up - somebody is buying but who & why?.
Perhaps some of the answers lies here
There was a big buy for gold in November, just waiting for the big sell 
Israel attacked military targets in Iran.
Significantly no nuclear or oil targets thus decreasing the risk of escalation.
Brics meeting over, markets closed - timing is important.
So what effect on the market - don’t think I’d want to buy oil Monday morning.- unless something catastrophic happens meantime.
It wld be remiss not to mention the most current affair effect on the market - i.e. the re-election of Pres Trump after an absence of 4 years.
The most noticeable effect is on stocks
2 things, US stocks have been rising all day, the 2nd thing worth noting is that European stocks have done the opposite - an unusual divergence and maybe gives credence to the possibility of parity re Eur/Usd
Investors will be looking at policy changes on US tariffs in particular.
It sounds like you have a wealth of experience and a solid approach to analyzing the market. I agree that understanding the broader economic factors like USD, Gold, and stock/bond markets is essential for forecasting short-term movements in EG. Looking forward to your insights on these connections!
Great introduction! Your experience with currency pairs like Euro/Pound and monitoring USD, Gold, and the stock/bond market provides valuable context for predicting short-term market movements. It’ll be interesting to see how your insights develop, especially given the interconnected nature of global markets. Looking forward to more detailed analysis!
Meanwhile 2 wks and a few hundred pips later that goal is much closer.
Overnight the mood lighting can change very quickly.
Pres Trump has announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico & China on day 1 of his incoming presidency.
Tariffs usually have a stifling effect on trade & has the potential to change risk sentiment to negative.
Something to be aware of despite yesterday’s russell 2000 hitting an ATH.
And so it has - the threats of tariffs are raised again by pres trump - this time against the EU.
In his post he capitalized the word presumably to highlight it’s significance.
The market is already aware of the results that tariffs can bring to an economy - inflation.
Competition in a free market is the single most effective guard against raising prices - if I sell at 100 & my competitor is selling at 110 becaause of a tariff - likley I will raise my price too even if it’s tariff free.
That’s business
Infaltion = higher rates = weaker stocks
