Current Affairs effect on the market

[peterma]

@peterma

This thread is focussed on ‘current affairs’ which many see as FA - yet the market is both FA & TA

Perhaps coming a little boring - an update on the above chart - and the TA/FA thing - also posts ref investors seeking value post back Nov.

Not so many charts this thread, maybe look back May '23 - the significant then was 4049.6 on the horiz & the trend line

@peterma

S&P with it’s upward trajectory since Oct '22

Last year there was much talk re US recession - talking heads who repeat what they hear.

Anyways TA/FA in tandem since my last post - the level then was 4926.70 - here’s what happened hr4 since then

:Edit: The FA factor was Nvidia -“carrying the weight of the world etc” (i.e. the future of tech & where return lies)

[peterma]

@peterma

Yen taking a beating this am - reason is BOJ have confirmed no intervention in past 4 weeks.

Market viewing this as meaning that the CB have decided not to defend the 150 line.

Will they intervene beyond this level in coming 4 weeks?

Difficult to say - reason enough for to stay clear - I remember last time they removed the peg.

Above was last day of Oct 23 - price made it as high as almost 152 and then backed off right down to 140 - then in came the buyers yet again early Jan - aware of the 150 level perhaps - a safe cushion.

This time almost 151 and guess what - heading south yet again with a push down on the back of BOJ comments

Like I commented some months back -

@peterma

there are different way of defending a line - lately CB comments can do the trick.

[peterma]

@peterma

Anyways TA/FA in tandem since my last post - the level then was 4926.70 - here’s what happened hr4 since then

That was 2 wks back - the level then was 5086 - here’s what happened at that level hr4 since.

The levels have it.

[ZforexCM]

The pair is clearly rising since April and continues to do so after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) warns about the inflation.

Yet, the kiwi comes face to with the resistance level at 62.15 and the daily RSI is near overboght condition.

Trading Direction: Short

• Sell NZDUSD at 0.6175
• TP at 0.6045
• SL at 0.6240
• R.R: 2

[peterma]

While since I posted re S&P and it’s upward trajectory.

Very often retail guys will bet against price - the expectation being that price ‘must’ reverse ( called gamblers fallacy)

Anyways long story short stocks rise because earning rise (amongst other things)

This from Carson 8 mins ago

Market Commentary: Earnings in the Long Run, and Short — Carson Wealth

[peterma]

@peterma

In other market news - US Stocks.

Ryan Detrick noted last week that 60% of S&P constituents hit a new 20day high - a signal that suggests gains for the S&P over next year.

Accuracy?

It’s not a common occurrence - 15 times to be exact - 100% accurate.

That was just over 6 months back - was it accurate?