Current Affairs effect on the market

And so it has - the threats of tariffs are raised again by pres trump - this time against the EU.
In his post he capitalized the word presumably to highlight it’s significance.

The market is already aware of the results that tariffs can bring to an economy - inflation.

Competition in a free market is the single most effective guard against raising prices - if I sell at 100 & my competitor is selling at 110 becaause of a tariff - likley I will raise my price too even if it’s tariff free.
That’s business
Infaltion = higher rates = weaker stocks

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Back to keeping a close eye on what Pres trump has to say - used to move the market quite often last time.

Wall St Journal reporting that the new President will not impose tariffs immediatly.

Usd dropping.

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Stocks down today - esp techs.

Cause - competition in the expanding AI market, specifically Deepsake.

It’s a long story but worth a read:
DeepSeek: ‘Cheap’ Chinese chatbot shocks AI world - BBC News

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S&P falling past cpl of hours - Reuters reporting re tariffs & poss announcement tomorrow

Watch out on open trades.

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Seems Canada, Mexico & China

USD up - stocks down (market thinks higher prices will follow - makes sense)

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Yes Peter.

Trump’s expected to make his official announcement today for Canada, Mexico, and China.

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The hope is that tariffs will add (only) 0.7% ti inflation numbers - given that Govts will likely increase spending to help in the counteract (remember covid) there is a reasonable chance that 0.7 will be exceeded - when 1 begins to spend the rest will follow…

Have to remember that the entire point of tariffs is to raise prices to the buyers (consumers).

Watch the bond market up ahead - there is a precarious feeling about it all.

Trump tariffs Canada: Feb. 1 tariff threat ‘still holds’

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The University of Michigan consumer sentiment numbers just released.

The sentiment numbers are down which is neither a here or there - BUT check out the longer term inflation numbers.

Not since 2008 - positive USD / neg stocks reaction not surprising.

That was 5 hrs back - it been a selling day since on stocks - chk back 5 candles.

Why are the UMich numbers important?

Because the Fed note them - reduces the % likelihood on rate cuts.

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Talk this evening of a minerals deal Ukraine/USA

Completion of such a deal will be seen as Euro positive - leastways in the short term.

Will help on risk sentiment as well - let’s see.

Edit: report is from FT

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Never underestimate the power of a CB - how the S&P has fared in the past week since above-

The above chart was at 5867 - went as low as 5864 & then in the past 2 hrs has shot up to 5948

So in the immortal words of a rabbit - what’s up doc?

A bloomberg report that the Mexican Pres was ‘open to matching US tariffs on China’
US Treasury Secretary Bessent, speaking to bloomberg commented that this is interesting and that it would “be a nice gesture” if Canada were to do likewise.

Market sees this as a likely get out of the 25% thing - it’s not about drugs, it’s about China trade.

More over the weekend i suspect.

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Back to tariffs again -Pres Trump has just said no room for negotiations - thus the sell off in the stock market right now.

More to follow no doubt.

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US stocks plummeted on Monday afternoon, with selling accelerating in the last hour of trading after President Trump indicated there was “no room left” for tariff negotiations with Canada and Mexico, indicating that new levies against both countries will go into effect tomorrow.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 1.7%, posting its worst day of 2025, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped 2.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell nearly 650 points, or almost 1.5%, as the major US indexes came off a volatile week and a losing February.

Tech led the sell-off, with shares of Nvidia (NVDA) tanking more than 8%. All of the “Magnificent 7” stocks declined.

Europe defense stocks jump amid Ukraine push

Defense stocks rallied in Europe on Monday after leaders in the region discussed how to secure Ukraine, prompting investors to ramp up bets on a rise in military spending.

The UK and France are leading a push by a “coalition of the willing” European leaders to boost peacekeeping forces after last week’s clash between US President Donald Trump and Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

The moves follow reports that France’s president and Germany’s next government believe that hundreds of billions of dollars in additional defense spending is needed.

Shares of European arms makers jumped, with BAE Systems (BA.L, BAESF) rising 13% and Rheinmetall (RHM.DE, RNMBY) up 16%. Thales (HO.PA, THLEF) added 11%, Saab (SAABY, SAAB-B.ST) put on 9%, and Dassault Aviation (AM.PA) gained 12%, helping lift the Stoxx 600 by 0.5% toward a record high.

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There was big moves in Qinetiq, Rollsroyce and Senior plc as well.

Aerospace and Defence in UK and Europe are moving seriously strong atm.

Thanks SmallPaul for pointing this out recently

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Europe is reeling from an intense opening two months of the Donald Trump administration, which has left the U.S. set to abandon its position as the West’s peace broker.

Europe announces unprecedented $840 billion rearmament plan to tackle ‘grave’ threats, sending defense giants BAE and Thales soaring

Europe laid down the gauntlet as it unveiled a defense plan that could free up €800 billion ($840 billion) to rearm the continent amid the most significant shock to Western international relations in decades.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen announced on Tuesday a “ReArm” plan to stock up Europe’s defenses against a looming threat from Russia as the U.S. walks back its military support of Ukraine.

The announcement offered concrete figures on investment following Monday’s pledge by European leaders to beef up their defense capabilities as they rallied around Volodymyr Zelensky.

In announcing the ReArm plan, von der Leyen spoke candidly about the existential threats Europe will face in the coming years. The EU’s announcement came as the U.S. said it was suspending military aid to Ukraine following a heated argument between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office on Friday.

“We are living in the most momentous and dangerous of times. I do not need to describe the grave nature of the threats that we face. Or the devastating consequences that we will have to endure if those threats would come to pass,” von der Leyen said in Brussels.

“Because the question is no longer whether Europe’s security is threatened in a very real way. Or whether Europe should shoulder more of the responsibility for its own security. In truth, we have long known the answers to those questions.”

Freeing up the cash to stockpile Europe will require an unprecedented level of cooperation on defense in the EU’s 32-year history.

Each of the bloc’s 27 member states will need to increase their defense spending by an average of 1.5% of GDP, which von der Leyen says would create fiscal headroom of €650 billion over the next four years.

The EU also plans to create a new instrument that would unlock €150 billion ($158 billion) in loans to member states for investment in defense.

Europe’s quest to rearm itself will inevitably leave tough decisions for the region’s policymakers. In announcing an increase in defense spending to 2.5% of GDP, U.K. prime minister Keir Starmer said the country would cut its aid spending to fill the funding gap.

“​​We will continue working closely with our partners in NATO. This is a moment for Europe. And we are ready to step up,” said von der Leyen.

Defense giants soar higher

As Europe ponders how to ramp up its military budget, shares in Europe’s largest defense contractors, BAE Systems, Rheinmetall, and Thales, soared as the extent of Europe’s renewed defense plans were realized. Collectively, the groups have added around $30 billion in market value since the start of the week.

Thales received an extra boost after announcing earnings on Tuesday, showing an 8.3% increase in revenues in 2024.

In a call with reporters following the company’s results, Thales CEO Patrice Caine Europe had the technology to fend for itself on defense, and indicated it has the capacity to meet the regions growing defense demand.

In February, BAE similarly said it would be able to cope with Europe’s newfound military appetite.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

Interesting what’s happening since Tue past on the Euro

The German CB announced plans to attempt to remove the constitutional ‘spending brake’.

Reuters reported as follows:
Bundesbank proposes raising govt borrowing limit to 1.4% of GDP from 0.35%, if debt if under 60% of GDP
Bundesbank says new limit could add up to 220 bln in spending power by 2030
Changes require two-third majority support in Bundestag, Bundesrat

That last sentence is important - 2/3 of both houses needed & the current govt is short of that number by 85 ish.

Nonetheless the market is buying Euro on that news - for now - voting in 2 wks.

So FA is is driving the short term buying, and TA shows where - 1.06 previous support last April - on hr1 visible support again yesterday morning.

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And yes the tariff story again.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has said on CNBC that the tariff war is over - well not actually those words but no tariffs on all USMCA-compliant goods and services

Not official yet but the market is reacting risk on to the comments right now.

As ever with tariff talk - more to come :slight_smile:

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Justin Low of Forexlive agrees with his post this morning:
“The technical and fundamental stars lined up rather perfectly for the pair and it really doesn’t get any better than that”.

There is of course the caveat of the required majority as mentioned above.

Euro continues upward for now.

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Re-posting this comment from Mid Jan past.

The previous 4 years Pres Biden’s words seldom moved the market, Pres Trump’s words def do.

The problem is how to read his intentions - e.g. the tariff on/off/on/pause/deadline - thus the market has become volatile to say the least.

The vix has been rising since mid Feb when most this tariff talk kicked off - they call it the ‘fear’ indicator, I’d say it’s more a ‘be alert’ indicator.

My own sense is saying that maybe I’ll get ready to move investment that’s stock market related into cash - but I’ll hold for now.

From a FX pov same thing - long term views are irrelevant - it’s down to the next announcement - usd/cad being a prime example.

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