Cycle Trading anyone?

Have any of you ever tried cycle trading? And by that I mean that price seems to move in a regular pattern. If you look at GBP/USD for example on a 15m chart. there are two peaks in the pseudo volume indicator during the day and there seems to be two corresponding drops in price around the same time. It may not be regular enough to trade off of though. Just wondering if anyone has tried? See the attached picture to illustrate the last few days. I made some pips on these by doing a buy order near the bottom of the second dip.

on days like today, this pattern gets swamped by the larger trend.

i think we need a longer backtest to look at before :rolleyes:

Volume is broker dependent. Better to observe the difference between the high and low of the cycle to determine possible future reversal areas.

Example, after gbpusd swings 200 pips or more one way, start looking for an indication of reversal.

Are you looking for a general reversal of previous trend each time there’s a spike in volume. Also the volume is most likely referring to tick volume.

I also agree that more backtesting would be appropriate for this.

volume of course is tick volume, that’s why I refer to it as pseudo volume.
I don’t know what the tick volume of other brokers looks like since I am only using Ibfx right now. Well I take that back I just got an Alpari dem and the volum looks the same.

Even though volume may be unique to each broker I would think that it would be in each case a statistically representative sample.
Similar to the way polsters poll a representative sample of a population rather than the whole population.
of course I could be wrong but it looks the same

I do notice in Ibfx volume there is a clear repeating pattern in the volume and there seems to be a correlation in the price but that may be just me seeing a pattern that isnt really there like the face on mars or the jesus image on toast. It looks like something but it may not be something. Just thought I’d put it out there and see.

There is a concept of using repeating cycles of price so I didn’t know if anyone out there had tried it. There is even a cycle indicator in metatrader.

rather than a reversal of trend this looks like brief retracements in an existing trend. Or maybe it’s better to see it as something that appears in the absence of a strong trend as it was distinctly absent during today’s run down in price.

I made the chart small to show several days. If you bring up a 15m chart and scroll back in time the pattern seems to keep repeating except for times like today when it is overwhelmed by a large move.

I traded on this a couple days this past week. Waited for the first down turn in price, then predicting the approximat time of the next downturn trying to guage it’s bottom and going long on it. Small pip gains ensued but nothing to brag about.

I’ll toss up a pic of more previous days if anyone wants or just look for it on your own charts.

I’m skeptical after viewing it on my chart :smiley: but will be interesting to see if you can find success with it.

skeptical is a good trait. If I have any luck trading it, I’ll post it here.

decided to try trading it realtime today, but on demo not real money. So based on the pattern of a drop in price early in the day and again late in the day.
the text ‘dip1’ and ‘dip2’ are my hind sight marks. The four low bars a little later on are what I thought at the time was dip 1 so an upturn and start to turn down and I think its the peak so I go short at the upper yellow tag and exit at the lower for around 20 pips, but then I’m thinking that’s kind of early in the day for dip 2 even though it varies I expect it more around 14:00 gmt, then I see the run up and congestion around 14:15 so I say aha there it is! and I sell then exit a while later when I thinkg it’s gone far enough, don’t want to get greedy trying to pinpoint tops and bottoms. Decided not to try buys but only do sells because of what looks like a general downtrend over the last couple days.

warning, this may be like Elliot waves or Nostradamus quatrains, vague enough to be open to a lot of interpretation.

aha! now I realize why there are two volume peaks during the day and a smaller one at night/early morning. Well duh! :slight_smile:

Wouldn’t it be easier to track volume movements by visiting [B]CME Group/Chicago[/B] website on a regular basis…?

Interesting website, I haven’t dabbled in futures in years but I see they have a forex section also.

Actually what I was really wondering about is why the repeating pattern in volume on my forex charts? I know it’s tick volume not ‘real’ volume, but I mean it’s understandable that volume is higher during NY & london sessions and lower during the Asian session, but within that high low pattern there is another repeating pattern. I wonder if that would have any impact on VSA analysis? probably not, it’s probably not detailed enough to affect that type of anaylsis.
As a newbie to forex I was curious about these patterns and now I figured them out it’s silly the lighbulb didn’t come on sooner, guess I’m a little slow sometimes…

edit… I just noticed my status, senior member, (double entendre) How’d that happen? Lots of posts I recon.