Daily Analysis Thread

Trading Discussion
210

[B]Euro Dollar[/B]

1.4260 proved to be a strong resistance level, stalling the EUR surge yesterday. Currently the pair appears to be forming a continuation pattern. But a break below 1.4180 is likely to see a further slide. Support is at 1.4150, 1.4120 and 1.4100.
A move higher is more likely at this point. If 1.4260 is exceeded it indicates another move higher. Initial target is 1.4310 followed by 1.4380.

[B]USD/JPY[/B]

The pair continues to decline, falling through support yesterday before bouncing to retest that former support level in late trading. Currently the pair is pushing at resistance. A push above 94.50 indicates at least a brief move higher into the 94.70 region, and if surpassed 95.00.
There is little support in a decline until 93.80 followed by 93.40.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Cory Mitchell

Disclaimer
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

211

[B]Euro Dollar [/B]

Some minor support and resistance levels have developed. A break of those levels is likely to set the tone for the day.

A rise above 1.4360, especially if confirmed by a push above 1.4375, indicates a further move higher. Resistance is expected near 1.4400, 1.4440-1.4450, and by 1.4530.

A drop below 1.4320 will gravitate towards 1.4300. If it holds up well, expect movement back towards 1.4360. Support beyond 1.4300 is 1.4280-1.4270, 1.4200 and 1.4160.

[B]USD/JPY - Short-term Trend Change[/B]

Last week ended with a bullish engulfing pattern (daily chart), indicating stregnth to the upside early this week. The start of trading this week has confirmed this as the rate pushes above recent swing highs.

Target on the upside is 95.20 with some resistance expected in the 95 area.

Minor support is expected at 94.65, 94.35 and 94.20-94.15 on corrections.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Cory Mitchell

Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

212

[B]Euro Dollar[/B]

Support is currently at a 1.4280 and a break below is expected to target 1.4200. The target, and support, beyond is at 1.4170.
Short-term trend line resistance is at 1.4320. A break above indicates a move to 1.4400 with interim resistance at 1.4340-1.4350 and 1.4375.

[B]USD/JPY - Early Sell Off[/B]

The pair is falling in early trading. The general trend is still down.
Support is likely to come from former trend lines, one providing support in the 93.70 region and the other at 93.30 (these will move lower slightly over the course of the day). 93.40 is also support.
94.25 is minor resistance on the upside, followed by 94.40, 94.60, 94.80 and 95.00. Another trend line comes into play between 94.80 and 94.60 as well providing resistance.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Cory Mitchell

Disclaimer
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

213

[B]EUR/USD - Range Bound[/B]

The pair continues to trade within a range starting a few days ago.

Support is established at 1.4280 and 1.4250 (and just below). Breaks below these levels indicate further selling. Target for a break below 1.4250 is 1.4130 with support likely at 1.4200 and 1.4170 on the way. Daily average range has dropped to about 100 pips, so that target may take a couple days to hit if such circumstances develop.

Minor resistance is at 1.4320 with a break above to target range highs in the 1.4360-1.4370 region. 1.4340 also offers some resistance. Resistance beyond the range high is at 1.4400 and every 20 pip until 1.4450-1.4460.

[B]USD/JPY[/B]

It was a mixed day yesterday with several whipsaw moves. This movement could quite possibily continue in this region as there is indecision on the direction, with aggresive moves up and down but not within a set range.

Support is at 93.80 with moves below gravitating towards 93.40 and beyond 93.10.

A rise above 94.25 is likely to test swing highs at 94.60 and beyond that, 95.00.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Cory Mitchell

Disclaimer
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

214

[B]EUR/USD - Respects Support[/B]

In early trading the pair is respecting the 1.4200 level. This is a horizontal and hourly trendline support area. The trendline will rise throughout the day. The bias is up, with 1.4220 also coming in as support.

A break below these levels indicates a move to 1.4140. Support is expected in the 1.4180-1.4160 region.

A continued rise, first above 1.4260, is likely to test recent swing highs in the 1.4350-1.4360 area.

[B]USD/JPY - Short-Term Break[/B]

The range that developed over the las two days was broken in early trading today. The pair brroke below 93.75 and is moving towards support at 93.40. A move below indicates targets of 93.20 and 93.00.

A push back above 93.80 indicates the break was false and swing highs will likely be retested in the 94.40-94.60 region. 94.20 also provides resistance.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Cory Mitchell

Disclaimer
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

215

[B]Euro Dollar - Indecision[/B]

Friday corrected a major portion of the move up on Thursday, and early trading this week has been mixed forming a range.

Minor resistance has formed at 1.4310 with further resistance at 1.4320. A climb above will likely target 1.4350 followed by 1.4380 and 1.4400-1.4410.

Support is 1.4290, 1.4280 with a break below heading for 1.4250 and (if needed) 1.4220-1.4210.

False breakout are likely in this current climate.

[B]USD/JPY - Over the Cliff[/B]

Early trading has sent the USD lower and below support at 93.20 and 93.00. These levels will now provide resistance on the upside and a push above is likely to test 94. A rise above 94 (unlikely today) warns of a bear trap.

The breakout lower has a target of 92.20. Further support is in the 91.80 region.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Cory Mitchell

Disclaimer
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
[/I]

216

GBP/USD’s weakens further today but after all it’s still holding above 1.6152 support. Intraday outlook remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidation could be seen. Though, upside should be limited below 1.6222 resistance and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.6152 will target 1.5983 key support next. However, note that a break of 1.6622 resistance will leave the fall from 1.7043 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn argues that another high above 1.7043 would be seen before GBP/USD tops.

P&F GBPUSD1 Box Size 5X3 or(0.09%) CLOSE
Data 1.6314 - 1.6185 ~ 0 Month ~ 0.77 Day
Database 1050 records [B]1.62023 (Last Close)[/B]
2009-08-28 18~21
2009-[B]08-31 12~50[/B]
[B]BJF Trading Group[/B] chart

1.6315|~5|||||-0.01%|0.8%
1.6310|~1O|||x___x_____________________________________________________|0.02%|0.77%
1.6305|~15|||x_o_x_o|0.06%|0.74%
1.6300|~2O|||o_x_o_________x_______________________________________|0.09%|0.71%
1.6295|~25|||o_x_o_________x_o______________________________|0.12%|0.68%
1.6290|~3O|||o_x_o_x_______x_o_____________________________________|0.15%|0.65%
1.6285|~35|||o___o_x_o_x___x_o_____________________________________|0.18%|0.62%
1.6280|~4O|||o_x_o_x_o_x_o_________________________________|0.21%|0.59%
1.6275|~45|||o___o_x_o_x_o_________________________________|0.24%|0.56%
1.6270|~5O|||o_x_o_x_o_____________________________|0.27%|0.53%
1.6265|~55|||o_x_o_x_o_____________________________|0.3%|0.49%
1.6260|~6O|||o_x_o_x_o_____________________________|0.33%|0.46%
1.6255|~65|||o___o_x_o_____________________________|0.36%|0.43%
1.6250|~7O|||o_x_o_x___x_______x___________|0.39%|0.4%
1.6245|~75|||o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_________|0.42%|0.37%
1.6240|~8O|||o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___x_o_________|0.45%|0.34%
1.6235|~85|||o___o___o___o_x_o_x_o_________|0.48%|0.31%
1.6230|~9O|||___o_x_o_x_o|0.51%|0.28%
1.6225|~95|||_____________________o___o___o_________________x|0.55%|0.25%
1.6220|~1OO||_______________________________o_________________x_o|0.58%|0.22%
1.6215|~1O5||_______________________________o_x_______x___x___x_o|0.61%|0.19%
1.6210|~11O||_______________________________o_x_o_x___x_o_x_o_x_o|0.64%|0.15%
1.6205|~115||_______________________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o|0.67%|0.12%
1.6200|~12O||_________________________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o___o___o_x|0.7%|0.09%
1.6195|~125||_________________________________o_x_o___o_x_________o_x|0.73%|0.06%
1.6190|~13O||_________________________________o_x_____o___________o_x|0.76%|0.03%
1.6185|~135||_______________________________o_x_________________o|0.79%|0%
1.6180|~14O||__________o|0.82%|-0.03%
Column|~145||2_5_5_7_3_7_6_1013133_3_3_5_3_3_5_147_4_3_4_5_3_3_3_5_8_3|

217

[B]Euro Dollar[/B]

Current movement is maintained within the larger range. A rise above 1.4370 will target 1.4400. A move above could reach 1.4540, but resistance is likely 1.4440-1.4450.

Support is above 1.4300 with a break below likely to test 1.4260. Further support is 1.4220-1.4200.

[B]USD/JPY[/B]

Resistance is 93.20-93.30. A break above indicates a move to 93.70. A false breakout will likely result in further USD weakness. Weakness is indicated by a drop below 92.80 and would be confirmed by a drop below 92.50.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Cory Mitchell

Disclaimer
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

218

[B]Euro Dollar[/B]

The Euro dropped from 1.4376 until it reached and tested Fibonacci 61.8% support for the whole move from 1.4045 to 1.4405. The above mentioned Fibonacci support at 1.4183 will be the most important for the short-term, after it survived yesterday’s test (yesterday’s low 1.4176) , because a break of this specific support will open the door to a trial to find a new bottom below Aug 17th low 1.4045 within this week. Any attempt to go up will have to break through 1.4252 (short-term 38.2% Fibonacci Resistance), and if this attempt is corrective, it should not go higher than 1.4300, as we can surely say that this is the most important resistance for the moment.

Support:
� 1.4183: Fibonacci support 61.8%, the most important support for short-term.
� 1.4135: The rising trendline from July’s low.
� 1.4081-1.4085: a support area that contains Aug 12th & 19th lows.

Resistance:
� 1.4252: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
� 1.4300: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, the most important resistance

for now.
� 1.4360: the falling trendline from Augusts’ high.

[B]USDJPY[/B]

Again, we have seen the long awaited test of 92.70 (the rising trendline from the year’s low 87.10 on the daily chart). But the drop stopped only pips below it (yesterday’s low 92.50), so close to Monday’s low (92.53). Having no real ability to perform a real break of that line makes it worth being careful, and avoid jumping on board for either the Dollar or the Yen. We do not recommend much enthusiasm for the Dollar before we break the trendline falling from Aug 9th high, which runs currently at 93.36. On the other hand, the bounce from yesterday’s low is so fragile and we could see it get broken in the 3rd attempt today.

Support:
� 92.50-92.53: The support area which contains the previous 2 days lows, a break here would open the way to get away from the broken line.
� 91.73-91.76: Strong, important support area that combines July 8th, 10th &

13th lows.
� 91.20: the bottom of the falling channel from Aug 7th high.

Resistance:
� 93.36: The trendline falling from Aug 9th, the most important resistance

for short-term.
� 94.19: Aug 17th low.
� 94.89: Intraday high, and previous support.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

Disclaimer
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

219

[B]Euro Dollar[/B]

The Euro survived the test of short-term Fibonacci support, and as we have expected, started a correction move up, without breaking 1.4300, and stopped just 8 pips below what we have called “the most important resistance” in yesterday’s report. The above mentioned support at 1.4183 will still be the most important for short-term, because a break here will give way to an attempt to reach a lower bottom, below Aug 17th low 1.4045. On the other hand, EURSUD could continue correcting the last drop, and if this move up is corrective as we suspect, it should not break 1.4300, as we can say that this is the most important resistance for the time being. If broken, this move up cannot be classified as a short-term correction, and it will have the ability to fly above 1.44 before the end of the week.

Support:
� 1.4230: Fibonacci 61.8% for the micro-term.
� 1.4183: Fibonacci support 61.8%, the most important support for short-term.
� 1.4135: The rising trendline from July’s low.

Resistance:
� 1.4300: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, the most important resistance

for now.
� 1.4352: the falling trendline from Augusts’ high.
� 1.4412: the most important resistance in the wide and crowded resistance area 1.4362-1.4446.

[B]USD/JPY[/B]

As we have expected in yesterday’s report, USDJPY broke the 92.50/92.53 support on 3rd attempt, but the drop to follow was undersized, and could not test the important support area 91.73-91.76. Although this move was smaller than expected, all other things indicate that we are running in a flawless downtrend that is facing no problem. The bottom of the current channel is below 91 now, and the top is at resistance 93.04. It is mandatory to stay inside this channel and below the most important resistance at the moment 93.04. The downtrend will gain more confidence once we break the nearby support 92.06.

Support:
� 92.06: short-term support.
� 91.73-91.76: Strong, important support area that combines July 8th, 10th & 13th lows.
� 90.72: the bottom of the falling channel from Aug 7th high.

Resistance:
� 93.04: The trendline falling from Aug 9th, the most important resistance

for short-term.
� 93.66: Aug 19th low.
� 94.19: Aug 17th low.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

Disclaimer
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of you circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

220

[B]Euro Dollar[/B]

The Euro is trying at this very moment to break the falling trendline from Aug 27th high, which is a trendline that frustrated the Euro on several occasions recently. If it succeeds, there will be a big probability to surpass 1.4405 and head towards areas above 1.45 for the first time this year, where targets such as 1.4510 and 1.4572 are waiting. To consider that this line is broken, we need to see a break of 1.4338. If this line survives another test and managed to stop the Euro once more, we will head to 1.4295 and a break here then we will see a correction of Friday’s rise, targeting 1.4245 ideally. If this is the case then this support will be very important to decide short-term’s direction. But even if such a drop happens, it will not distort the technical image before breaking 1.4245, since approaching this support and not breaking it would be a positive sign for the Euro, giving it the ambition of flying above 1.45.

Support:
� 1.4295: Intraday low after Friday’s jobs report.
� 1.4245: Fibonacci support 61.8%, the most important support for short-term.
� 1.4183: September’s 1st low.

Resistance:
� 1.4328: the falling trendline from Aug 28th high, most important resistance for now.
� 1.4412: Aug 7th high.
� 1.4446: the upper limit of the wide and crowded resistance area 1.4362-1.4446.

[B]USD/JPY[/B]

Dollar-yen broke the descending trend channel after the US monthly employment report on Friday. It held above the channel for the last few hours before the end of the week, and managed t close above the channel. USDJPY crossed the moving average SMA100 even before the news came out, which indicates that the correction for the leg down from 97.77 has already begun, and that short-term downtrend has ended. But, first we have to break through 93.42. Ideally, this correction would target 94.85 or 95.54, and in this case the latter would be a decisive resistance that will determine the trend for the short-term. If we fail to do so, we will head to a test of short-term support 92.73, a break here could target 92.43 only, where there is Fibonacci 61.8% & the retest level of the broken line, or we could see the long awaited visit of the strong support 91.73-91.78.

Support:
� 92.73: short-term Fibonacci 38.2% support, plus the moving average SMA100.
� 92.43: short-term Fibonacci 61.8% support, plus the retest level of the broken trendline.
� 91.73-91.76: Strong, important support area that combines July 8th, 10th & 13th lows.

Resistance:
� 93.42: The trendline falling from Aug 9th, the most important resistance for short-term.
� 94.16: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move down from 97.77.
� 94.85: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move down from 97.77.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

Disclaimer
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
[/I]

221

[B]Euro Dollar[/B]

The Euro has broken the falling trendline from Aug 27th high, and stayed above it the whole time. That is why, there is still a big probability to surpass 1.4405 and head towards areas above 1.45 for the first time this year, where targets such as 1.4510 and 1.4572 are waiting. We need to see a break of the close resistance 1.4346 to increase confidence. If the opposite happens and we break the 1.4302 support, then we will see a correction of Friday’s rise, targeting 1.4245 ideally. If this is the case then this support will be very important to decide short-term’s direction. But even if such a drop happens, it will not distort the technical image before breaking 1.4245, since approaching this support and not breaking it would be a positive sign for the Euro, giving it the ambition of flying above 1.45.

Support:
� 1.4302: short-term support.
� 1.4245: Fibonacci support 61.8%, the most important support for short-term.
� 1.4183: September’s 1st low.

Resistance:
� 1.4346: the high during the American & Asian sessions.
� 1.4412: Aug 7th high.
� 1.4446: the upper limit of the wide and crowded resistance area 1.4362-1.4446.

[B]USD/JPY[/B]

The ascending trendline drawn from last week’s low 91.93, units with the horizontal support line at 92.74, and also with the moving average SMA100, and finally with Fibonacci 38.2% support for the short-term to form the most important support for today. Stabilization above this level is essential to keep the view that the correction for the leg down from 97.77 has already begun, and that short-term downtrend has ended. But, first we have to break through 93.04. Ideally, this correction would target 94.85 or 95.54, and in this case the latter would be a decisive resistance that will determine the trend for the short-term. If we fail to do so, we will head to a test of short-term support 92.74, a break here could target 92.43 only, where there is Fibonacci 61.8%, or we could see the long awaited visit of the strong support 91.73-91.78.

Support:
� 92.74: important support area combining short-term Fibonacci 38.2% support, with a horizontal support line, plus the ascending trendline from last week’s low, and the moving average SMA100.
� 92.43: short-term Fibonacci 61.8% support.
� 91.73-91.76: Strong, important support area that combines July 8th, 10th & 13th lows.

Resistance:
� 93.04: closing price of the latest intraday top.
� 93.42: AUG 21st low, and SEP 1st high.
� 94.16: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move down from 97.77.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

Disclaimer
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

222

[B]Euro Dollar Break Major Resistance[/B]

The 1.4440-1.4450 was broken yesterday as rates pushed above 1.4500. A successful hold above and/or re-test of the 1.4440 level would confirm another swing higher. This is in alignment with the longer term trend.
Trend line resistance comes in at 1.4530, along with intra-day swing highs at 1.4535. A break above this area indicates movement to 1.4600 and beyond, 1.4650-1.4670.
A move below 1.4460 will likely find support at 1.4440 and 1.4400.

[B]USD/JPY[/B]

Lots of action yesterday just above 92.00 (92.00-92.30) which at least for the short term puts a strong support level in place.
Resistance on the upside is at 92.65-92.70, 92.90 and 93.00-93.10.
Support is at 92.30 and 92.00.
A break below 92.00 (confirmed by a move below 91.90) indicates another swing lower. Support is likely at 91.70 and 91.50.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Cory Mitchell

Disclaimer
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

223

[B]Euro Dollar[/B]

The rise that we expect to be in a 5-wave mode, is still developing nicely, reaching 1.46 for the first time this year. We still believe it has enough strength to reach the top of the channel, which is slowly approaching 1.47. The resistance which stopped yesterday’s rise is actually 1.4592 (yesterday’s high was 1.4600), and we will adopt it as resistance of the day. A break here would indicate strength that has the ability to lead the Euro to the top of the channel, which is currently at 1.4665. And if this resistance is broken there will be nothing separating the price from December’s unforgettable top: 1.4720. As for short-term support it is 1.4548, if broken, the door will be open to a correction of this strong and sharp rise, which is expected to lead to testing yesterday’s low 1.4465 and after that 1.4395: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move up from 1.4190 last week to 1.4600 yesterday.

Support:
� 1.4548: short-term support.
� 1.4465: yesterday’s low.
� 1.4395: Fibonacci support 50% for short-term.

Resistance:
� 1.4592: short-term resistance.
� 1.4665: the top of the current channel on the hourly chart.
� 1.4720: the unforgettable top of December 2008.

[B]USD/JPY[/B]

Finally, we have tested the most important support level in the current price area: 91.73-91.76, which is the small support area that holds within the lows of July 8th, 10th, and 13th. Price hardly held above it after reaching 91.60. And we think that breaking it would have enough influence to “finally” accelerate the downtrend, and would be followed by a move down to 90.90 or even 89.69. As for attempts to go higher, they would not mean anything without a break of Fibonacci 61.8% resistance at 92.20, which stopped the rise twice, during the American & Asian sessions. If this resistance is broken, we think the USDJPY will target areas above 93 such as 93.42, and if this one is also broken, the next stop would probably be 94.16.

Support:
� 91.73-91.76: Strong, important support area that combines July 8th, 10th & 13th lows.
� 90.90: Oct 24th 2008 important bottom.
� 90.40: Feb 13th low.

Resistance:
� 92.20: short-term Fibonacci 61.8%, the resistance that stopped the rise twice during the American & Asian resistance.
� 92.74: the previous important support that was broken this week.
� 93.42: AUG 21st low, and SEP 1st high.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

Disclaimer
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

224

Euro Dollar

As we have expected, the rise stopped between 1.4620 & 1.4667, and from there we have seen a correction that reached 1.4515 until this very moment. We still believe that this correction is targeting 1.4459 at the very least, and that it could go all the way to 1.4357. But, before we feel over-excited for this correction we should see a break of short-term support 1.4501, and after that we can talk about the ideal targets such as 1.4459, 1.4408, or 1.4357. On the other hand, the resistance that should not be broken to keep the big probability of this correction is Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term 1.4589, staying below it will favor this correction, while breaking it will mean another attempt to reach the top of the rising channel which is at 1.4671 for today.

Support:
� 1.4501: Thursday’s low.
� 1.4459: Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level for the whole move up from 1.4190.
� 1.4408: Fibonacci 50% retracement level for the whole move up from 1.4190. And if this level is broken 1.4357 would become the most important support for determining short-term trend, and may be medium-term as well.

Resistance:
� 1.4589: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
� 1.4671: the top of the current channel on the hourly chart.
� 1.4720: the unforgettable top of December 2008.

USD/JPY

The downtrend is still advancing as expected: smoothly, and reaching new lows, and slowly moving towards the 90 level. And after the plunge from 92.38 last week to 90.19 this morning, the possibility of a correction ahead of 90 is growing. Such a correction could go up to 91.74 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, SMA 100 on the hourly chart & the previous important support 91.73-91.76). Or, it could even go to 92.10 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, and the descending trendline from last month’s peak. But in order for the downtrend to continue without major difficulties, we should not go higher than that. On the other hand we still believe that we are heading towards areas below 90, the first of which is 89.68/78.

Support:
� 90.29: short-term support.
� 89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.
� 89.20: Feb 5th low.

Resistance:
� 90.67: intraday top & bottom from Friday.
� 91.22: intraday top.
� 91.74: Fibonacci 50% for the last move from 93.28, and the moving average SMA100.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther Marji

Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

225

[B]Euro Dollar[/B]

The Euro held above the suggested support 1.4501 and rallied to a new top for this trend at 1.4650, which is still inside the suggested area for a top. The top of the channel is currently at 1.4682 and this will be a curtail resistance, that could stop the current rise and force a correction of good size. We favor the formation of a top in these areas as long as the Euro does not break the top of the channel decisively. After that we expect a move down to areas below 1.45. The only thing that could save the Euro from a sizable drop is a clear break above the top of the current channel. The previous 1.4570 resistance will act as the most important support for short-term, and breaking it means the correction is back on track, and is heading to 1.4459 at least, in the next few days.

Support:
� 1.4570: short-term support.
� 1.4501: Thursday’s low.
� 1.4459: Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level for the whole move up from 1.4190.

Resistance:
� 1.4682: the top of the current channel on the hourly chart.
� 1.4720: the unforgettable top of December 2008.
� 1.4774: previous well known resistance/support.

[B]USD/JPY[/B]

As this report expected yesterday, the dollar-Yen moved up slightly in a small correction. Our view is still as it was in yesterday’s report when we said: “after the plunge from 92.38 last week to 90.19 this morning, the possibility of a correction ahead of 90 is growing. Such a correction could go up to 91.74 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, SMA100 on the hourly chart & the previous important support 91.73-91.76). Or, it could even go to 92.10 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, and the descending trendline from last month’s peak).” The only changes to this view are that the descending trendline is now below Fibonacci 61.8%, and that the SMA100 is almost exactly at Fibonacci 38.2%. In order for the downtrend to continue without major difficulties, we should not go higher than these levels. We still believe that we are heading towards areas below 90 after this correction is over, such as the important support area 89.68/78. On the other hand, the rising trendline for this correction is currently at 90.90, which makes it the most important support of the day.

Support:
� 90.90: the rising trendline on the intraday charts.
� 90.29: short-term support.
� 89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.

Resistance:
� 91.22: intraday top.
� 91.74: Fibonacci 50% for the last move falling from 93.28.
� 92.10: Fibonacci 61.8% for the same move.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

Disclaimer
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

226

[B]Euro Dollar[/B]

Reaching the top of the channel at 1.4684, but not breaking it, the Euro is still inside the suggested area for a top. The top of the channel is slowly approaching 1.47, more accurately it is currently at 1.4691. And between here and 1.4720 we have a good resistance that can curb this slow rise. If this happens, we will break 1.4654 and head towards the short-term 61.8% Fibonacci support at 1.4607, which the euro needs to hold above to survive the expected correction. If it does not hold above here, the correction would be already underway, targeting 1.4459 at least, in the next few days. On the other hand, if the euro surprises and breaks the whole 1.4691-1.4720 area, then there would be no reason to believe a correction is going to start from these areas. In this case, we are heading to many resistance levels above 1.48 the first of which is 1.4824.

Support:
� 1.4654: Asian session low.
� 1.4607: short-term 61.8% Fibonacci support.
� 1.4534: Sep 8th high.
Resistance:
� 1.4691-1.4720: the resistance area between the top of the current channel on the hourly chart, and the unforgettable top of December 2008.
� 1.4774: previous well known resistance/support.
� 1.4824: previous daily high.

[B]USD/JPY[/B]

We came close to the ideal target for this correction: 91.74 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, SMA100 on the hourly chart & the previous important support 91.73-91.76), and reached 91.63 yesterday. And now, the falling trend channel is exactly at this level, which makes it the most important resistance for today, more important than 92.10. Although the ideal target for the current correction will still be 91.74, there is a possibility to target 92.10, but when we compare these two targets, we find that the most important is 91.74 since it combines a Fibonacci resistance, and a previous support, and even more important the top of the falling channel. As for the support, short-term Fibonacci support at 90.77 has proven its importance when the price bounced from there twice, once before reaching yesterday’s high, and once after. We believe that breaking 91.74 or 90.77 is what will decide the direction of the next hours, and may be the next few days. Breaking the resistance 91.74 will take the price up at least to 92.10, and may be to test the top 93.28. Breaking the support 90.77 would mean that the correction is over, and the down trend is back on track targeting 89.78-89.68.

Support:
� 90.77: Fibonacci 61.8% support for short-term, which survived twice until now.
� 90.29: short-term support.
� 89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.

Resistance:
� 91.74: Fibonacci 50% for the last move falling from 93.28, the most important resistance for today.
� 92.10: Fibonacci 61.8% for the same move.
� 92.70-92.80: previous support area which contains a number of daily lows in the past few months.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

Disclaimer
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

227

Eur/Usd
approaching its resistance levels: 1.4683 & 1.4870
Support: 1.4450

228

[B]Euro Dollar[/B]

The euro broke above the rising trend channel for the first time, reaching a new high for this year at 1.4746, and leaving any expectation for a correction to start in these areas, in very bad shape. A break to the upside in a rising channel is usually a signal that shows how powerful the uptrend is, which makes it only logical to expect more gains for the European single currency. But it is required to stay above 1.4702 to be able to achieve these gains. If the Euro holds above the broken channel, it would be expected to advance to areas above 1.48, specially 14824 and 1.4880. It is very important to hold above this channel which is at 1.4702 now. If we fall back below this level we could see a good move trying to get far from the top of the channel and targeting 1.4641 and below. It is very important to keep an eye on 1.4702 today!

Support:
� 1.4702: the top of the broken channel.
� 1.4641: yesterday’s low.
� 1.4560: Sep 15th high.
Resistance:
� 1.4766: previous daily high
� 1.4824: previous daily high.
� 1.4880: previous daily low.

[B]USD/JPY[/B]

Dollar-Yen broke the 90.77 support and reached a new bottom only pips below the previous one, before it managed to bounce up. What happened yesterday had two effects. First: the area containing the previous bottom 90.19 & yesterday’s bottom 90.11 has provided itself as a good support area. Second: the calculation of Fibonacci resistance has slightly changed, and the new Fibonacci retracement levels are 91.32, 91.70 and 92.07. the return above 91 after reaching yesterday’s low shows that the dollar has not given up yet, and that it could try again to reach one of the Fibonacci levels mentioned above. The top of the channel is currently at 91.49 (between Fibonacci 38.2% and 61.8% levels). Short-term important support is Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from yesterday’s low, which is at 90.58 and breaking it would probably mean we are going to beak 90.11 and reach a new low below 90 before the weekend.

Support:
� 90.58: Fibonacci 61.8% support for short-term.
� 90.11: short-term support.
� 89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.

Resistance:
� 91.70: Fibonacci 50% for the last move falling from 93.28, the most important resistance for today.
� 92.07: Fibonacci 61.8% for the same move.
� 92.70-92.80: previous support area which contains a number of daily lows in the past few months.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

Disclaimer
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

229

[B]Euro Dollar[/B]

The Euro is approaching at this very moment the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart, and in the same area we noticed an intraday support that has shown itself several times lately, which adds more importance to this level. Reaching this area is the most important test for the EURUSD since reaching 1.4766 last Thursday. If it survives here, there will be a chance to test the most important resistance for the short-term 1.4723 which is the falling trendline from last week’s high, and if this resistance is also taken, we will have a good chance of seeing the top of the channel which is currently at 1.4824, this week. On the other hand, breaking this channel would be a clear signal of weakness, and would mean that we are currently in a correction for the whole up-move from 1.4176 to 1.4766, which is going to target 1.4541 at least, and probably areas below it, the most important of which are 1.4471 & 1.4401.

Support:
� 1.4660: the bottom of the current rising channel, and an intraday support that has shown itself several times lately.
� 1.4579: previous support.
� 1.4514: Sep 14th high.
Resistance:
� 1.4723: the falling trendline from Thursday’s high 1.4766.
� 1.4774: previous daily high.
� 1.4824: previous daily low.

[B]USD/JPY[/B]

Dollar-Yen is approaching Fibonacci resistance 91.70, at this very moment, for the third time, and we could see a break in the next few hours, especially after breaking the falling trend channel on Friday, and closing above it. After this break, the most important resistance became 92.07, which is the level that the price should break to show seriousness in breaking the channel. If we manage to surpass it, more upside action is to be expected, reaching, or at least approaching the resistance area 92.70-92.80. Today’s short-term support is provided by the rising trendline from Wednesday’s low, which is currently at 91.31, and breaking it would be evidence of weakness, and moving to areas below 90, where some targets await, the first of which is the support area 89.68-89.78. We do not see USDJPY free from pressure without breaking 92.07.

Support:
� 91.31: the rising trendline from Wednesday’s low.
� 90.71: intraday support/resistance from last week.
� 89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.

Resistance:
� 92.07: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last move falling from 93.28, the most important resistance for today.
� 92.70-92.80: previous support area which contains a number of daily lows in the past few months.
� 93.28: Sep 7th high.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

Disclaimer
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]