Daily Analysis Thread

Trading Discussion
230

[B]Euro Dollar[/B]

The Euro held around the secondary Fibonacci support of 23.6%, which is in the 1.4620 area, and went back up to above 1.47. The “limited” move of yesterday had “limited” effect. We have re-drawn the channel, to make it comprehensive, and to include all the price behavior since the beginning of the month. The bottom of this new channel is exactly at Fibonacci 38.2% support 1.4541, which makes this support a candidate to be the decisive area separating positive from negative territory. As for the short-term , the support is 1.4705, and a break here would initiate a correction for the rise from yesterday’s low, ideally targeting 1.4656, the support that if broken would open the road to test the most important support for now 1.4541. Short-term resistance is 1.4756 and breaking it is the key to reach 1.48 for the first time this year, where some targets await us, especially 1.4824 and 1.4901.

Support:
� 1.4656: short-term support.
� 1.4541: Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium-term, and the bottom of the rising channel from the beginning of the month. The most important support for now, breaking it would mean the end of the uptrend for the medium-term.
� 1.4471: Fibonacci 50% for medium-term.
Resistance:
� 1.4756: short-term resistance.
� 1.4824: previous daily high.
� 1.4901: previous daily high.

[B]USD/JPY[/B]

We have reached 92.50 for the first time in two weeks, after breaking all Fibonacci resistance levels for the last move down. But even that the Dollar-Yen broke them all, it could not hold above 92, returning fast to test the previous resistance 91.60-91.63 which became a support. In the same area, we find the rising trendline from last week’s low 90.11, which ads more importance to an already important area. Until this very moment, the support area has held (today’s low until now is 91.62). That is why we will keep this area on the lookout. Holding above here will give another chance to reach the resistance area 92.70-92.80, and may be later test the previous top 93.28. Breaking it would be a surprise after yesterday’s advance. And if this surprise happens, we would go back to the negative status of this pair, which would gradually lead to test (and may be break) the psychological level 90, and to targets below it, first of which is the support area 89.68-89.78.

Support:
� 91.60: previous resistance area, and the rising trendline from last week’s low.
� 90.97: intraday support from last week.
� 91.11: Sep 16th low.

Resistance:
� 92.17: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
� 92.70-92.80: previous support area which contains a number of daily lows in the past few months.
� 93.28: Sep 7th high.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

Disclaimer
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

231

Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 23, 2009

Euro Dollar

As expected, the Euro reached 1.48 for the first time this year, and also reached the first target suggested in yesterday’s report, which leaves the second target 1.4901 ahead of us, could we see it today? The current advance is still climbing (slowly we might add) without showing exhaustion, and the top of the current channel is at 1.49, these thing support the probability of going up. On the other hand, a divergence case on the RSI is developing as we speak, supporting the opposite scenario. These mixed signals could go in harmony if we manage to go up to 1.4901 first then go down to solve the divergence. The most important resistance for short-term is 1.4824, and breaking it is the key to hit 1.4901. the most important support for the short-term is 1.4783, and breaking it would threaten the Euro with a drop to the important 1.4698. Only if we break this support we can start talking about the big correction for the whole move up from 1.4176, because such a discussion before that break would be completely premature.

Support:
� 1.4783: short-term support.
� 1.4698: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term (for the rise from 1.4610).
� 1.4646: Friday’s low, and the support area that showed strength recently.

Resistance:
� 1.4824: previous daily high.
� 1.4901: previous daily high.
� 1.4962: previous daily high.

USD/JPY

The Dollar-Yen broke the support area 91.60-91.63 to go back into the negative territory again, and to drop more than 110 pips after the break. With that, we came to the end of the rising adventure that stopped at 92.50, and the downtrend came back to dominate. But, stopping near the support 90.51and holding above it, means that there is an existing possibility for another rise, without breaking 90.51. If price manages to hold above this support, there would be a good chance to test a number of important resistance levels most important of which is 91.74. we prefer waiting for a break of 91.74 or 90.51, since we believe that breaking any of those levels will decide the direction of the next move. If we break 91.74, we would be on the road again to 92.50. And if we break 90.51 the downside pressure will come back to drive the price gradually to test (and may be break) the psychological level 90, and to move towards targets below it, first of which is the important support area 89.68-89.78.

Support:
� 90.51: the previous support that stopped the current drop.
� 90.11: Sep 16th low.
� 89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.

Resistance:
� 91.25: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
� 91.74: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
� 92.70-92.80: previous support area which contains a number of daily lows in the past few months.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

Disclaimer:
[i]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Forexpros - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.[/i]

232

[B][U]Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 24, 2009[/U][/B]

[B][U]Euro Dollar [/U][/B]

As all other majors, the Euro dropped significantly after the Fed, and went back to 1.4685, but it stood its ground and spent the whole Asian session above 1.47. This return could provide us with the chance to retest the falling and broken trendline, inside the rising channel, which is currently at 1.4646, which is the support of the day. Whereas resistance of the day is Fibonacci 61.8% for “post-Fed decline”. This is currently at 1.4782. We expect the Euro to spend sometime between those two levels, before breaking one of them. In case we break 1.4646 the Euro would be already in a correction for the whole rise from 1.4176, which would target 1.4588 at least, and could reach 1.4430. On the other hand, breaking 1.4782 would indicate that the “post-Fed decline” is just temporary and limited, and that we will be heading towards 1.4901.

[B]Support:[/B]
� 1.4685: Asian session low.
� 1.4646: the retest level for the broken falling trendline, inside the rising channel.
� 1.4588: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from 1.4176 to yesterday’s top 1.4842.

[B]Resistance:[/B]
� 1.4782: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
� 1.4824: previous daily high.
� 1.4901: previous daily high.

[B][U]USD/JPY[/U][/B]

Not a lot of changes since yesterday, and not a lot to talk about, as the price managed to hold above the important support 90.51, and tried to test the important Fibonacci resistance 91.74, but stopped just below it. Which leaves both the important support and the important resistance from yesterday’s report untouched, and we will continue to consider them as the most important levels for today as well. We prefer waiting for a break of 91.74 or 90.51, since we believe that breaking any of those levels will decide the direction of the next move. If we break 91.74, we would be on the road again to 92.50. And if we break 90.51 the downside pressure will come back to drive the price gradually to test (and may be break) the psychological level 90, and to move towards targets below it, first of which is the important support area 89.68-89.78.

[B]Support:[/B]
� 90.51: the previous support that stopped the current drop, most important support for today.
� 90.11: Sep 16th low.
� 89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.

[B]Resistance:[/B]
� 91.33: short-term resistance.
� 91.74: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, the most important resistance for the time being.
� 92.70-92.80: previous support area which contains a number of daily lows in the past few months.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

[B]Disclaimer:[/B]
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

233

[B][U]Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep. 29, 2009[/U][/B]

[B][U]Euro Dollar[/U][/B]

Moving steady inside the falling channel on the intraday charts, the Euro approached the top of the channel five times, without breaking it, which indicates that the falling trend (for the short-term is still safe. As long as price does not break this channel to the upside, the short-term downtrend will go on, and try to reach the end of the channel, which is below 1.45, during this week. On the other hand, if price manage to break this channel to the upside, the Euro will be free from the falling trend, and will try to reach new tops over 1.48, this week also. The most important resistance is 1.4639, which represents the top of the falling channel. Breaking this “top” will mean that we are on the way to areas above 1.47, most important of which are 1.4720 and 1.4776. The most important support is 1.4597, and breaking it means that the falling trend will try to reach Fibonacci 50% at 1.4509, or Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4430.

[B]Support:[/B]
� 1.4597: short-term support.
� 1.4509: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week’s top 1.4842.
� 1.4430: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week’s top 1.4842.

[B]Resistance:[/B]
� 1.4639: the top of the falling channel on the intraday charts.
� 1.4720: the resistance area that stopped the Euro from rising 3 times late last week…
� 1.4776: previous resistance.

[U][B]USD/JPY[/B][/U]

The most important support 88.74 held and gave the Dollar-Yen a chance to break the resistance 89.68, and as expected went back above 90. The price stopped accurately (as we can see on the chart) at the previous support 90.20, which provided us with the daily lows for 11th & 16th on the month. That is why 90.20 will be the most important support for today. If the dollar fails to break it, this pair will go back to falling, after that sharp bounce from 88.22. A break of 90.20 would give a chance to approach 91 since the first important resistance in these areas 90.90. Just above that there is the most important resistance, the limit of the downtrend 91.33, which represents the falling trendline from August 9th top. The most important support for today is 89.23 which is Fibonacci 50% for the rise from post-open low, and the bottom of the rising channel on the intraday charts. If we break 89.23 that would mean we are on our way to break the 8-month low at 88.22, in this case 87.97 and 87.10 look like the most possible targets of the next leg down.

[B]Support:[/B]
� 89.23: Fibonacci 50%, and the bottom of the rising trend channel on intraday charts.
� 88.56: previous intraday support.
� 87.97: Jan 23rd low.

[B]Resistance:[/B]
� 90.20: the previous support that stopped the current rise, and a support area that includes the daily lows of 11th & 16th of the month.
� 90.90: previous intraday support/resistance.
� 91.33: the limit of the downtrend, the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.

Forex tradinganalysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

[B]Disclaimer[/B]
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

234

[B][U]Forexpros Daily Analysis, Sep 30, 2009[/U][/B]

[B][U]Euro Dollar[/U][/B]

The Euro stopped just below the most important resistance in yesterday’s report 1.4639 (Asian session high was 1.4631). But even though, it is trading now above the falling channel, after it succeeded in breaking it. Still, we can spot a trendline that stopped the Euro, which is the rising trendline from inside the falling channel. We can clearly see that price stopped accurately at this line, running currently at 1.4639, the most important resistance for today as it was for yesterday. If we break it to the upside, the Euro will be free from the falling trend, and will try to reach areas above 1.47, most important of which are 1.4720 and 1.4776, and may be areas above 1.48 later this week. The most important support is 1.4590, which represents the retest level of the channel that was broken during the Asian session. And breaking it means that the falling trend will try to reach Fibonacci 50% at 1.4509, or Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4430.

[B]Support:[/B]
� 1.4590: the retest level for the falling channel that was broken during the Asian session.
� 1.4509: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week’s top 1.4842.
� 1.4430: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week’s top 1.4842.

[B]Resistance:[/B]
� 1.4639: the retest level of the rising trendline that was previously broken.
� 1.4720: the resistance area that stopped the Euro from rising 3 times late last week.
� 1.4776: previous resistance.

[B][U]USD/JPY[/U][/B]

We did not even come close to 89.23, but on the contrary tried to break 90.20, but could not hold above it more than a few minutes, then returned fast to below 90 again. And today, 90.20 will still be the most important resistance. If the dollar fails to break it, this pair will go back to falling, after that sharp bounce from 88.22. But, a break of 90.20 would give a chance to approach 91 since the first important resistance in these areas 90.90. Just above that there is the most important resistance, the limit of the downtrend 91.19, which represents the falling trendline from August 9th top, and just below it there is the moving average SMA100. The most important support for today is 89.31 which is Fibonacci 50% for the rise from post-open low. If we break 89.31 that would mean we are on our way to break the 8-month low at 88.22, in this case 87.97 and 87.10 look like the most possible targets of the next leg down.

[B]Support:[/B]
� 89.31: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.
� 88.56: previous intraday support.
� 87.97: Jan 23rd low.

[B]Resistance:[/B]
� 90.20: the previous support that stopped the current rise, and a support area that includes the daily lows of 11th & 16th of the month.
� 90.90: previous intraday support/resistance.
� 91.19: the limit of the downtrend, the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

[B]Disclaimer:[/B]
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

235

hi forex pro

todays forecast pls.

236

[B][U]Forexpros Daily Analysis, Oct 1, 2009[/U][/B]

[B][U]Euro Dollar[/U][/B]

The Euro is testing at this very moment the short-term support 1.4563, after dropping hard in the last half hour. This support is the last barrier before testing Fibonacci 50% which is at 1.4509. Short-term resistance is 1.4622, and breaking it would give another attempt to reach 1.47 (after yesterday’s attempt). If 1.4563 is broken, then the falling correction will try to reach Fibonacci 50% support at 1.4509, or Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4430. In this case, this support in particular will become the most important support for the medium term, since breaking it would mean that this drop is more than just a correction, and that the uptrend which started at 1.4176 is already over. On the other hand, if we break 1.4622 we will head first to the resistance area that stopped the price twice yesterday and during the Asian session 1.4668-1.4672. We do not expect a lot of trouble here, on the contrary we would expect to pass it, and reach 1.47 and above, especially the important resistance 1.4720.

[B]Support:[/B]
� 1.4563: short-term support.
� 1.4509: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week’s top 1.4842.
� 1.4430: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week’s top 1.4842. The most important support for the medium-term.

[B]Resistance:[/B]
� 1.4622: short-term resistance.
� 1.4720: the resistance area that stopped the Euro from rising 3 times late last week.
� 1.4776: previous resistance.

[B][U]USD/JPY[/U][/B]

Yesterday’s drop stopped with great accuracy at what we called “the most important support” 89.31 (yesterday’s low was 89.34). And today, 90.20 will still be the most important resistance. If the dollar fails to break it, this pair will go back to falling, after that sharp bounce from 88.22. But, a break of 90.20 would give a chance to approach 91 since the first important resistance in these areas 90.90. Just above that there is the most important resistance, the limit of the downtrend 91.01, which represents the falling trendline from August 9th top, and just below it there is the moving average SMA100. The most important support for today is 89.31 which is Fibonacci 50% for the rise from post-open low. If we break 89.31 that would mean we are on our way to break the 8-month low at 88.22, in this case 87.97 and 87.10 look like the most possible targets of the next leg down.

[B]Support:[/B]
� 89.31: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.
� 88.56: previous intraday support.
� 87.97: Jan 23rd low.

[B]Resistance:[/B]
� 90.20: the previous support that stopped the current rise, and a support area that includes the daily lows of 11th & 16th of the month.
� 90.90-91.01: previous intraday support/resistance, plus the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.
� 91.82: previous support/resistance.

[U][/U]Forex Trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

[B]Disclaimer:[/B]
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

237

[B][U]Euro Dollar[/U][/B]

The Euro broke the falling trend channel for the short-term, twice, but in the two times it stopped at 1.4646. Which will make this resistance specifically the most important for the short-term. A break here would be a confirmation of the break of the descending channel, and the start of the rise back to areas above 1.47, specially 1.4720. For the next few days, a break of 1.4646, and successfully reaching areas above 1.47, might mean the end of the downtrend falling from 1.4842, and the start of the rise that will challenge this top. The most important support for the short-term is the broken line of the falling channel, and the retest level at 1.4588. It will be the most important support for today because breaking it would mean that the price is back inside the falling channel, which will bring Fibonacci levels 1.4509 & 1.4430 back into focus.

[B]Support:[/B]
� 1.4588: the retest level of the broken channel.
� 1.4509: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week’s top 1.4842.
� 1.4430: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week’s top 1.4842. The most important support for the medium-term.
� 1.4358-1.4362: the important support area which include many daily highs and lows, the latest of which were Sep 7th, Aug 24th & 25th highs.

[B]Resistance:[/B]
� 1.4646: short-term resistance that stopped the price twice.
� 1.4720: the resistance area that stopped the Euro from rising 3 times lately.
� 1.4776: previous well known resistance.

[B][U]GBP USD[/U][/B]

As we expected, the Pound broke the 1.5902 support, and reached the first suggested target 1.5812, stopping only 10 pips below it, before it started the rise that reached 1.60 this morning. Stopping at this level in specific has a reason: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term is exactly at 1.6000, this will be the most important resistance for today, and will determine the direction of the following hours. Short-term support is 1.5923, and if it’s broken, the Pound will continue its decline which touched 1.58, and will try to reach areas below Friday’s low 1.5802, with a focus on the possible test the important support area 1.5754-1.5776 again, which will be a very important test if it happens. On the other hand, if a surprise happens and we break 1.6000, the Pound will be on the rise for the short-term at least, to retest Wednesday’s high 1.6123, or may be to try and reach Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.6199.

[B]Support:[/B]
� 1.5923: short-term support.
� 1.5829: intraday support from friday.
� 1.5754: the bottom of the important support area 1.5754-1.5776.

[B]Resistance:[/B]
� 1.6000: short-term Fibonacci 61.8%.
� 1.6073: previous intraday support.
� 1.6123: Wednesday’s high, and if this top it taken, 1.6199 will be the most important resistance for both the short & medium terms.

Forex TradingAnalysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros

[B]Disclaimer:[/B]
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

238

[B][U]Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 7, 2009[/U][/B]

[B][U]Euro Dollar[/U][/B]

The Euro advanced to 1.4761 before retreating back to 1.4682, and with that, it stayed for the whole past 24 hours above the important support specified in yesterday’s report 1.4668, keeping our positive outlook intact. But even with this new high, things have changed a lot, because the Euro is threatened with a correction for the whole move from 1.4480, after spotting reversal signals on the Japanese candlestick charts: a (Shooting Star) pattern on the hourly chart, and an (Engulfing) pattern on the 4 hour chart. That is why we will drive our attention towards Fibonacci retracement levels for the move from 1.4480 on Friday to 1.4761 yesterday. But, we will not assume there is a correction underway, before trading below the moving average SMA50, which clearly supported the price since Friday, and is running currently at 1.4682. As long as the price is above the moving average, we will maintain a positive outlook for the short-term, and we believe that there will be another attempt to break 1.4720 and head higher. And although we notice a resistance at 1.4776, we believe that if the Euro breaks 1.4720, then it will be able to reach areas above 1.48 within 24 hours after the break, first of which is 1.4824, then new highs above the tops of September 22nd & 23rd.

[B]Support:[/B]
� 1.4682: the moving average SMA50, supporting the Euro since Friday.
� 1.4621: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4480 on Friday to 1.4761 yesterday.
� 1.4587: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4480 on Friday to 1.4761 yesterday. In case this support is broken, 1.4509 will be a key support for the medium-term.

[B]Resistance:[/B]
� 1.4720: the resistance area that stopped the Euro from rising 3 times lately.
� 1.4776: previous well known resistance.
� 1.4824: previous daily high.

[B][U]USD/JPY[/U][/B]

Dollar-Yen has tried to break the lower limit of the supposed triangle pattern, but it was not able to overcome Friday’s low, if we are to receive a confirmation of the break of the triangle we need to see the price below Friday’s low 88.59. That is why this support is the most important for today. On the other hand, the resistance of the day is the upper limit of the triangle formation 89.63. And breaking either of them is what will give the next move its direction. If we break 89.63, short-term direction will be up, which would give a chance to approach 91 since the first important resistance in this area is the limit of the downtrend 90.55, which represents the falling trendline from August 9th top. Just below it there is the moving average SMA10. There are several resistance levels between here and the strong 91.63. On the other hand, if we break 88.59 that would mean we are on our way to break the 8-month low at 88.22, in this case 87.97 and 87.10 look like the most possible targets of the next leg down.

[B]Support:[/B]
� 88.59: Friday’s low.
� 87.97: Jan 23rd low.
� 87.10: 2009 low.

[B]Resistance:[/B]
� 89.63: the upper trendline in the supposed triangle pattern, most important resistance for the short-term.
� 90.55: the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.
� 91.63: strong previous resistance.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

[B]Disclaimer[/B]
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

239

Shares in Asia are growing, due to the Gold reaching it’s maximum, companies such as BHP and Newcrest are leading

October 7 � Since gold has been climbing up to its maximum, led by mining companies and banks, the Asian shares have been rising for 2 consecutive days now. Brokers have raised the value of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group.

In Sydney BHP Billiton Ltd., the largest mining company in the world have increased of 3.4 % and the gold mining company Newcrest Mining Ltd - of 6.5 %. The reference index of the country showed its biggest rise within six weeks, after the central bank have raised interest rates explaining that the reasons for low interest have been “depleted”. In Tokyo after Nomura Inc. raised its target price on shares so Sumitomo Mitsui have profited by 6.7 percent.

Managers of Pengana Capital Ltd handling 1 billion assets in Melbourne believe: �Rise in Asian shares might be the proof that global economy is getting back its strength�. "Investors who are waiting for correction to buy stocks are getting disappointed.

In Tokyo Asia-Pacific MSCI index rose by 1.5 % to 117.36 at 1:59 pm, continuing yesterday’s growth of 1.7 %. Over the past seven months the index rose by 63% confirming the the signs that the world economy is recovering.

S & P / ASX 200 Index of Australia rose by 2.4 %, this is the biggest increase since the 24th of August. The index yesterday rose by 0.4 %, after an unexpected increase in interest rates of the central bank of Australia. Due to the increase in value of Credit Suisse Group AG., the largest operator of lead, Crane Group Ltd. rose by 2.1 %.

240

[B][U]orexpros Daily Analysis Oct 8, 2009[/U][/B]

[B][U]Euro Dollar[/U][/B]

First we would like to draw your kind attention to the ECB rate decision that will come out later today, and to president Trichet’s news conference that will follow. The Euro advanced to 1.4761 before retreating back to 1.4682. And with that, 1.4776 became the most important resistance for the short-term, and the key to reach new tops. If broken, the Euro will be able to reach areas above 1.48 within 24 hours after the break, first of which is 1.4824, then new highs above the tops of September 22nd & 23rd, the most attractive of which is 1.4901. On the other hand the most important support for the short-term is Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4695, holding above it is crucial for the upward movement. But if it’s broken, we expect a test of one of the important support levels in the 1.46 & 1.45 areas such as 1.4645, 1.4613, 1.4575, down to 1.4509.

[B]Support:[/B]
� 1.4695: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
� 1.4645: Previous intraday resistance.
� 1.4587: Previous intraday support.

[B]Resistance:[/B]
� 1.4776: previous well known resistance.
� 1.4824: previous daily high.
� 1.4901: previous daily high.

[B][U]USD/JPY[/U][/B]

Dollar-Yen broke 88.59 and reached the target suggested in yesterday’s report with astonishing accuracy when the drop stopped at 87.98, compared to our first target 87.97. Then it went up to 89.38 sharply in what might turn out to be some sort of intervention by the Japanese government. And now, it is moving above the important support 87.97, which is the key to reach 87.10. On the other hand, the resistance 89.38, which is close to the top of the triangle formation, is going to be the resistance of the day. If we break 89.38, short-term direction will be up, which would give a chance to go above 90 again, where the first important resistance in this area is the limit of the downtrend 90.40, which represents the falling trendline from August 9th top. Just below it there is the moving average SMA10. There are several resistance levels between here and the strong 91.63. If we break 87.97, the direction would stay as it is (down), and that would mean we are on our way to test or may be break the 14-year low 87.10.

[B]Support:[/B]
� 87.97: Jan 23rd low.
� 87.10: 2009 low.
� 86.40: previous support from 1995.

[B]Resistance:[/B]
� 89.38: the upper trendline in the supposed triangle pattern, most important resistance for the short-term.
� 89.96: Oct 5th high.
� 90.40: the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

[B]Disclaimer[/B]
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

241

[B][U]Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 12, 2009[/U][/B]

[B][U]Euro Dollar[/U][/B]

The Euro stopped at the resistance established in Friday’s report 1.4772 with amazing accuracy, a stop which was a signal that we are heading to areas below 1.47. And now, there is a resistance that combines the rising trendline drawn from 1.4566, and the falling trendline drawn from 1.4816, and is currently at 1.4725, if price stay below it, we are heading south. The probability of more downside grows with a break of the nearby support 1.4693. Such a break would signal more of the drop, to test one or some of the important support levels in the 1.46 & 1.45 areas such as 1.4645, 1.4613, 1.4575, down to 1.4509. The most important resistance is short-term is of course 1.4725. If broken, the Euro will be able to reach areas above 1.48, first of which is 1.4824, then new highs above the tops of September 22nd & 23rd, the most attractive of which is 1.4901.

[B]Support:[/B]
• 1.4693: short-term support.
• 1.4645: Previous intraday resistance.
• 1.4574: Previous intraday support.

[B]Resistance:[/B]
• 1.4725: an area combining the rising trendline from 1.4566, and the falling trendline from 1.4816.
• 1.4761: previous daily high.
• 1.4826: previous daily high.

[B][U]USD/JPY[/U][/B]

The Dollar-Yen is testing the limit of the downtrend, which is represented by the falling trendline from August 9th top, and if it is broken, then the Dollar would be invited to show how deep its real strength is over a series of resistance areas starting at 90.67 and reaches 91.63. The resistance that is attached to this line is 90.29, and if broken, then the line is broken, and the next stop would be 90.67 which is an important stop on the way to the most important stop in these areas 91.63. Short-term support is at 89.32, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived last week’s attempt for a break.

[B][U]Support:[/U][/B]
• 89.32: short-term support.
• 88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.
• 87.97: Jan 23rd low.

[B]Resistance:[/B]
• 90.29: the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.
• 90.67: previous support.
• 91.12: previous support & resistance area.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

[B]Disclaimer[/B]
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

242

[B][U]Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 13, 2009[/U][/B]

[B]Traders await publication of US Core Retail Sales[/B]

Tomorrow (Wednesday, Oct 14) the US Core Retail Sales monthly report will be published.

The Core Retail Sales is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the US, excluding auto. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the US economy .

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Analysts forecast a decline from last month’s figure of 1.10% to 0.20%.

[B][U]Euro Dollar[/U][/B]

As expected, the Euro jumped after breaking 1.4725, but the rise stopped just above 1.48, exactly like what happened last Thursday (yesterday’s high 1.4812, Thursday’s high 1.4816). It seems like reaching the resistance area 1.4808-1.4816 has become a problem for the Euro, since it failed twice at the same area. The falling trendline from yesterdays high, on the intraday charts, will provide the most important resistance for the short-term at 1.4788, and this resistance is the key to break the hard area 1.4808-1.4816, and the well known resistance which is just above it 1.4826, then may be new highs above the tops of September 22nd & 23rd, the most attractive of which is 1.4901. Support is at 1.4728, a break here would signal more of the drop, to test one or some of the important support levels in the 1.46 & 1.45 areas such as 1.4645, 1.4613, 1.4575, down to 1.4509.

[B]Support:[/B]
• 1.4728: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 1.4645: Previous intraday resistance.
• 1.4574: Previous intraday support.

[B]Resistance:[/B]
• 1.4788: the falling trendline from yesterday’s high on intraday charts.
• 1.4826: previous daily high.
• 1.4901: previous daily high.

[B][U]USD/JPY[/U][/B]

The Dollar-Yen failed to capitalize on the break of 90.29. And although the falling trendline on the 4H was broken, the falling trendline on the hourly chart was not, and price stopped just below it, near the well known resistance 90.40. We will shift attention towards the trendline on the hourly chart, and if it is broken, then the Dollar would be invited to show how deep its real strength is over a series of resistance areas starting at 90.67 and reaches 91.63. The resistance that is attached to this line is 90.29, and if broken, then the line is broken, and the next stop would be 90.67 which is an important stop on the way to the most important stop in these areas 91.63. Short-term support is at 89.32, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived last week’s attempt for a break.

[B]Support:[/B]
• 89.21: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.
• 89.01: Fibonacci 61.8% , and the most important support for the short-term.
• 88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.

[B]Resistance:[/B]
• 90.37: the falling trendline on the hourly chart, plus the resistance that stopped yesterday’s rise.
• 90.67: previous support.
• 91.12: previous support & resistance area.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

[B]Disclaimer[/B]
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

243

[B][U]Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct. 14, 2009[/U][/B]

[B][U]Traders in the U.S await tomorrow’s publication of the Department of Labor’s monthly CPI measurement (Oct 15).[/U][/B]

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services excluding food and energy.
The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer.
It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the US.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts forecast no change in the current rate, standing at 0.10%

[B][U]Euro Dollar[/U][/B]

Finally, the Euro reached new tops for this year, and came very close to our favorite target 1.4901 (the high until this very moment is 1.4898). By taking a look at the drawn channel we find that the important question now is will 1.50 be the next stop? To answer this question, we must estimate the strength of the resistance levels in this area, especially 1.4901 & 1.4953. We expect that in case of a break 1.4901, the Euro will be able to reach 1.50. But, if 1.4901 succeeds in capping the price, what will be expected is a correction for the move up from 1.4672 (at least), which is expected to drop the price back to 1.4793 first, and if broken, we can expect more drop. The important support now is the nearby 1.4872, a break would signal that a correction of some kind has started. To summarize: 1.4901 is resistance of the day, a break would lead to 1.50, while the support of the day is 1.4872, and a break here would lead to 1.4793 as the first important stop, and if broken we will head to the important support on the intraday charts 1.4755.

[B]Support:[/B]
• 1.4874: short-term support.
• 1.4793: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 1.4755: the rising trendline from 1.4480 on the intraday charts.

[B]Resistance:[/B]
• 1.4901: previous daily high.
• 1.4953: previous daily high.
• 1.5000: the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart.

[B][U]USD/JPY[/U][/B]

The Dollar-Yen dropped to 89 again, and we might see it test 88.68 today. But before that, we need to see a break of 88.96, which is the most important support for the short-term, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived last week’s attempt for a break. We will still pay attention towards the trendline on the hourly chart, which is currently at 90.27, and if it is broken, then the Dollar would be invited to show how deep its real strength is over a series of resistance areas starting at 90.67 and reaches 91.63. The resistance that is attached to this line is 90.27, and if broken, then the line is broken, and the next stop would be 90.67 which is an important stop on the way to the most important stop in these areas 91.63.

[B]Support:[/B]
• 88.96: short-term support.
• 88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.
• 87.97: Jan 23rd low.

[B]Resistance:[/B]
• 90.27: the falling trendline on the hourly chart.
• 90.67: previous support.
• 91.12: previous support & resistance area.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

[B]Disclaimer[/B]
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

244

[B][U]Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 15, 2009[/U][/B]

[B][U]Tomorrow (Oct 15) The US Treasury Department will publish the monthly Treasury International Capital (TIC) Net Long-Term Transactions Report.[/U][/B]

The report measures the monthly difference in value between US purchases of long-term foreign securities and foreign purchases of US long-term securities.
The TIC flows is a key resource of the US government for offsetting the Trade Deficit. It can give a good reflection on demand for USD
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts predict last month’s measurement of 15.30B to fall to 11.00B.

[B][U]Euro Dollar[/U][/B]

As expected, the Euro continued its rise, but until this very moment did not reach our target of 1.50. By taking a look at the two drawn channels, we see that they unite just above 1.50, which gives this area a lot of importance. And we assume very reasonably that this area is one of the best candidates to change short-term direction. Thus we must keep an open eye towards any reversal signals that could appear here. On the other hand, if it is broken, we will get closer to 1.51, since we see the next stop as 1.5082, on the way to higher prices. The short-term support now is the nearby 1.4933, a break would signal that a correction of some kind has started. And if this is the case, what will be expected is a correction for the move up from 1.4672 (at least), which is expected to drop the price back to the important 1.4782 first (Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, plus the rising trendline from 1.4480 on the intraday charts), and if broken, we can expect more drop.

[B]Support:[/B]
• 1.4933: short-term support.
• 1.4849: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
• 1.4782: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, plus the rising trendline from 1.4480 on the intraday charts.

[B]Resistance[/B]:
• 1.4962: previous daily high.
• 1.5011: the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
• 1.5082: previous daily high.

[B][U]USD/JPY[/U][/B]

Price could neither break the resistance 90.27, nor the support 88.96 (which was exactly the lowest price after the issuance of the report), and that is why we spent the whole day in a very tight range. What is worth notice this morning, that the falling trendline from 90.44 on the hourly chart, has many touch points with the price. And we will adopt it as resistance of the day. Breaking it would give the chance to test another slightly more important line which is the falling trendline from 95.05, currently at 90.29, and if it is broken, then the Dollar would be invited to show how deep its real strength is over a series of resistance areas starting at 90.67 and reaches 91.63. breaking 90.29 means that the line is broken, and the next stop would be 90.67 which is an important stop on the way to the most important stop in these areas 91.63. As for the support, it will stay as it was in yesterday’s report 88.96, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived last week’s attempt for a break.

[B]Support:[/B]
• 88.96: short-term support.
• 88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.
• 87.97: Jan 23rd low.

[B]Resistance:[/B]
• 89.64: the falling trendline on the hourly chart from 90.44
• 90.29: the falling trendline on the hourly chart from 95.05.
• 91.12: previous support & resistance area.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

[B]Disclaimer:[/B]
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

245

[B][U]Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 19, 2009[/U][/B]

[B][U]Traders await the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) decision on short term interest rate which will be announced tomorrow (Tuesday, 20/10). [/U][/B]

The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best “risk-free” return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation’s currency.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD.
Analysts predict the interest rate to remain stable at 0.25%.

[B][U]Euro Dollar[/U][/B]

As expected, Failure to break 1.4962 twice, drove the Euro down to the bottom of the channel drawn on the hourly & intraday charts, reaching this bottom with accuracy as we can note on the charts. Failure at 1.4962 could be a signal of a change in trend before reaching the top of the channel. Thus we must keep an open eye towards any reversal signals that could appear here. Short-term support is Fibonacci support 1.4849, a break would signal that a correction of some kind has started. And if this is the case, what will be expected is a correction for the move up from 1.4672 (at least), which is expected to drop the price back to the important 1.4782 first (Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term), and if broken, we can expect more drop. Short-term resistance is 1.4899, it is the key to reach 1.50 and the top of the channel.

[B]Support:[/B]
• 1.4849: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
• 1.4782: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, plus the rising trendline from 1.4480 on the intraday charts.
• 1.4723: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4480.

[B]Resistance:[/B]
• 1.4899: short-term resistance.
• 1.4966: Thursday’s high, and the resistance that stopped the price twice.
• 1.5032: the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart.

[B][U]USD/JPY[/U][/B]

The Dollar-Yen stayed above the important support 90.14, and reached 91.31 on Friday. It seems that it stopped close to the upper limit of the rising channel drawn on the chart. The most important stop in these areas is 91.63, which is expected to be an important test. Breaking it means that this rise will continue in the next few days, to areas above 92, where 92.52-92.58 is the first target for this break. While failure here would indicate that this is but a short-term rise. As for the support, the most important support is the retest level of the broken trendline, and Fibonacci 50% for the short-term at 90.07, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived last week’s attempt for a break.

[B]Support:[/B]
• 90.36: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
• 90.07: Fibonacci 50% short-term and the retest level for the broken trendline.
• 88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.

[B]Resistance:[/B]
• 90.97: the falling trendline from Friday’s top on intraday charts.
• 91.63: previous support & resistance area, the most important resistance for the short-term.
• 91.93: Sep 2nd low.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

[B]Disclaimer[/B]
[I]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/I]

246

Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 20, 2009

Tomorrow (Oct 21) The Bank of England’s (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will publish its record of the committee’s interest rate meeting held two weeks ago.

The meeting gives a picture of economic conditions in the UK, and records the votes of the individual members of the Committee.
If the BOE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook, it should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP.

Euro Dollar

The Euro broke the yesterday’s resistance 1.4899, and reached the first target of this break 1.4966, and came close to 1.50 (the high until the moment of preparing this report is 1.4993). We will adopt this top as resistance of the day, if broken we will head with the Euro to the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart, which is currently at 1.5040, and may be we will reach the highest level since Aug 2008, at the resistance 1.5082. on the other hand, the support 1.4964 obviously held during the last few hours, that is why we will consider it the short-term most important support. And if broken, what will be expected is a correction for the move up from 1.4828 (at least), which is expected to drop the price back to the important 1.4891 first (Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term), and if broken, we can expect more drop.

Support:
• 1.4964: lowest price on intraday charts during the last few hours.
• 1.4891: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 1.4842-1.4849: The support area which contains the lows of Thursday & Friday.

Resistance:
• 1.4993: short-term resistance.
• 1.5040: the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
• 1.5082: previous daily high.

USD/JPY

The Dollar-Yen stopped exactly at the first resistance in yesterday’s report (highest price after the issuance of yesterday’s report is 90.97), and it did not break the support at 90.07, which means that yesterday’s movement did not have any technical impact, and did not break the important support nor the important resistance. The most important support is the retest level of the broken trendline, and Fibonacci 50% for the short-term at 90.07, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived 2 weeks ago an attempt for a break. As for the resistance, the most important one is 90.73, the top of the falling channel on the intraday charts, and the key to the most important stop in these areas is 91.63, which is expected to be an important test. Breaking it means that this rise will continue in the next few days, to areas above 92, where 92.52-92.58 is the first target for this break. While failure here would indicate that this is but a short-term rise.

Support:
• 90.07: Fibonacci 50% short-term and the retest level for the broken trendline.
• 89.64: the bottom of the rising channel on the intraday charts.
• 88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.

Resistance:
• 90.73: the falling trendline from Friday’s top on intraday charts.
• 91.63: previous support & resistance area, the most important resistance for the short-term.
• 91.93: Sep 2nd low.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

247

Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 21, 2009

The US Department of Labor will publish its weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report Tomorrow (22 Oct).

The Report is a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week.
The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
Analysts forecast last week’s measure of 514.00K to rise to 518.00K.

Euro Dollar

The Euro broke the yesterday’s support 1.4964, and reached the first target of this break, and Fibonacci important support 1.4891, tested it strongly, but eventually it survived (yesterday’s low 1.4881). We will adopt this support level as support of the day, because if it holds, this would mean that the short-term correction is already over, and that we are heading to areas above yesterday’s high 1.4993. But, if broken, what will be expected is a correction for the move up from 1.4480, and if this is the case, targets will not be less than 1.4797, and may be 1.4737 also. Short-term resistance is 1.4950, and if broken, we will head with the Euro to the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart, which is currently at 1.5048, and may be we will reach the highest level since Aug 2008, at the resistance 1.5082. The support level at 1.4891 is the most important level for today, and is the line separating positive areas from negative.

Support:
• 1.4891: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 1.4842-1.4849: The support area which contains the lows of Thursday & Friday.
• 1.4797: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move from 1.4480.

Resistance:
• 1.4950: short-term resistance.
• 1.5000: psychological level.
• 1.5048: the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart.

USD/JPY

The Dollar-Yen with amazing accuracy at the first support in yesterday’s report (lowest price after the issuance of yesterday’s report is 90.06), and then rose to 91.05, breaking 90.73 on the way, but what followed was a modest move. The most important support is the Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term at 89.77, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived 2 weeks ago an attempt for a break. As for the resistance, the most important one is 90.90, and the key to the most important stop in these areas is 91.63, which is expected to be an important test. Breaking it means that this rise will continue in the next few days, to areas above 92, where 92.52-92.58 is the first target for this break. While failure here would indicate that this is but a short-term rise.

Support:
• 89.77: Fibonacci 50% short-term and the bottom of the rising channel on the intraday charts.
• 89.38: Oct 7th high.
• 88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.

Resistance:
• 90.90: short-term resistance.
• 91.63: previous support & resistance area, the most important resistance for the short-term.
• 91.93: Sep 2nd low.

–

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

248

Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 26, 2009

The National Australia Bank (NAB) will publish its Quarterly Business Confidence report tomorrow (OCT 27).

The report measures the current business conditions in Australia by analyzing the economic situation in the short term.

The indicator is concluded from a survey of around 1000 companies.

A rising trend indicates an increase in business investment which may lead to higher levels of output.

Above 0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.

The Australian Market has seen an improving trend ever since the low reading of Business Confidence this February which stood at -42.

Euro Dollar

We can say that the Euro is still facing trouble in the 1.5045-1.5062 area, and with closing on towards 1.5082 very slowly, we should be on the watch for a top near this level, where a relatively sizable correction is expected to begin. The most important resistance for now is 1.5082, and only breaking it would weaken the probability of a top formation in this area. The most important support is the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly charts, which meets the moving average SMA100 at 1.4992. If broken, we expect a correction to match the rise from 1.4480, which would take the price in the next few days to 1.4840 at the very least. But, if things go against our expectations, and the price rise and breaks 1.5082, that would open the way towards 1.5144 & 1.5200.

Support:
• 1.4992: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart, and the moving average SMA100.
• 1.4896: clear support area on the hourly chart.
• 1.4840: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move from 1.4480.

Resistance:
• 1.5082: previous daily high from 2008.
• 1.5144: previous support area that contained more than one daily low during last year.
• 1.5200: previous resistance area from 2008.

USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen reached 92 for the first time in more than a month. And after breaking 91.63, its is only logical to say that the odds favor a continuation of this slow rise, probably to our previously suggested target area 92.52-58, which could be an area for the price to reverse from, and start correcting the whole rise from 87.98. Short-term resistance is 91.94, and breaking it would mean we are heading towards the target area 92.52-58, or may be to a more exciting and attractive target, which is 92.88: Fibonacci 50% resistance for the whole down move from 97.77 to 87.98. And since the 2 targets are not far from each other, the whole area combining them (92.52-92.88) is considered one wide resistance area that we expect is able to reverse the direction on the short-term, and initiate a correction that we can not talk about its size now. The most important support is 91.47, provided by the rising trendline on the 15 minute chart. If broken, we will target 90.90 where the known previous resistance meets the SMA100. And Since the RSI is standing in the middle of the way, the odds of going in either direction look close.

Support:
• 91.47: the rising trendline on the intraday charts.
• 90.90: the previous known resistance, and the moving average SMA100.
• 89.38: Oct 19th low.

Resistance:
• 91.94: intraday resistance.
• 92.52-92.58: previous well known resistance area.
• 92.88: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 97.77 to 87.98.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

Disclaimer

Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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The U.S. Census Bureau will publish the Monthly Core Durable Goods Orders report tomorrow (Oct 27th ).
The report measures the change in the total value of new orders for durable goods, excluding transportation.
Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of orders trends.
Higher reading indicates activity increase by manufacturers.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts predict last months reading of 0.00% is expected to rise to 0.50%

Euro Dollar

Exactly as it was expected, the Euro collapsed the minute it broke 1.4992, and stopped only 4 pips before our target 1.4840. It is only normal to see it trying to rise now and trying to get back above 1.49, but breaking the trendline put the Euro in a negative technical situation that it will not escape by going back above 1.49. We will maintain a negative attitude towards the Euro as long as it is below short-term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance at 1.4978. We expect the rising correction to stop somewhere between 1.4927 & 1.4978, and then to continue the drop towards new targets in the 1.47 area, most attractive of which are Fibonacci 50% & 61.8% support levels at 1.4771 & 1.4702. In this case, 1.4702 will hold a special importance, as the first important support for the medium-term in these areas. Short-term support is 1.4861 and it is provided by the rising trendline from yesterdays low, on the intraday charts. Breaking this line would mean a continuation of the down move, towards our targets 1.4771 and may be 1.4702. Short-term resistance is 1.4978, a break here would be a surprise of some kind, but if it does happen, we will target a retest of the broken trendline at 1.5019, and then 1.5082.

Support:
• 1.4861: the rising trendline from yesterday’s low on the intraday charts.
• 1.4771: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move from 1.4480.
• 1.4702: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 1.4480.

Resistance:
• 1.4927: Fibonacci 38.2% for yesterday’s drop.
• 1.4978: Fibonacci 61.8% for yesterday’s drop, and the most important resistance for the time being.
• 1.5019: the retest level of the broken trendline.

USD/JPY

As expected, Dollar-Yen continued this slow rise, and we still believe that it is heading very slowly probably towards our previously suggested target area 92.52-58, which could be an area for the price to reverse from, and start correcting the whole rise from 87.98. Short-term resistance is 92.27 and breaking it would mean we are heading towards the target area 92.52-58, or may be to a more exciting and attractive target, which is 92.88: Fibonacci 50% resistance for the whole down move from 97.77 to 87.98. And since the 2 targets are not far from each other, the whole area combining them (92.52-92.88) is considered one wide resistance area that we expect is able to reverse the direction on the short-term, and initiate a correction that we can not talk about its size now. The most important support is 91.98, provided by the rising trendline on the hourly chart. If broken, we will target 90.90 where the known previous resistance awaits. And Since the RSI is standing in the middle of the way, the odds of going in either direction look close.

Support:
• 91.98: the rising trendline on the hourly.
• 91.26: the important support area from last week.
• 90.90: previous known resistance.

Resistance:
• 92.27: short-term resistance.
• 92.52-92.58: previous well known resistance area.
• 92.88: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 97.77 to 87.98.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.