Like its com-doll sibling, the Aussie rode a nice wave of risk appetite that hit the market shores. With the equity and commodity markets all amped up, the AUDUSD finished at 0.8421, up almost a 100 pips from its opening price.
Once again, the Australian economy posted some positive GDP growth last quarter, as the economy grew another 0.5%. Still, reactions to this data were mixed. While it was nice to see that the economy continues to chug along, it was merely half of the 1.1% figure the previous quarter. This hints that the growth was simply propped up by all the stimulus that the government injected into the economy. Now that the RBA has been raising rates and government programs are coming to an end, we may continue to see weaker GDP figures in the coming months.
Earlier today, trade balance figures were released. Lo and behold – instead of posting an expected deficit of 620 million AUD, a surprlus of 130 million AUD was posted! This means that more goods and services were exported this past April! Rememeber, when exports are rising, it means that demand for the Aussie could be on the rise, as foreign importers need the local currency in order to get their hands on Australian goods.
The Aussie was once again exposed to risk appetite-aversion flows yesterday. It rallied furiously during the Asian session, but reversed all of its gains once the European trading session went underway.
The Aussie was initially boosted by a surprise 130 million AUD surplus in its trade balance. The market was expecting for a 620 million AUD deficit. The rally did not last long though, as the risk aversion set again in once the European trading session began. This pressured traders to sell-off the Aussie in favor of the dollar.
We won’t be seeing any data from Australia today, so be aware of the US non-farm payrolls at 12:30 pm GMT. Since it garners a lot of attention from traders, we can expect a hefty serving of volatility upon the release of the report. Head on over to Forex Gump’s blog for a nice preview of the report.
Like Big Pippin pointed out in his chart art, the Aussie kept sliding lower against the Greenback last week. The weak US employment report sparked risk aversion and pushed the AUDUSD closer to the 0.8100 handle.
Let’s find out if Australia’s labor market is in a much better condition than that of the US. Australia is set to release its ANZ job advertisements report at 1:30 am GMT today and this could print a rebound over the 1.3% decline seen last April. If it does, it could signal that hiring would pick up pace in the coming months, which may provide support for the Aussie.
Next up, the Westpac consumer confidence reading and data on Australian home loans are due on Wednesday. The index of consumer sentiment plummeted by 7.0% in May and may be due for another drop in June. Declining consumer confidence could be harmful for the economy because this could dampen spending and overall economic activity. Meanwhile, home loans are expected to slide down again in March. A drop of 1.9% is estimated for the month after suffering a 3.4% decline in February, reflecting the negative impact of the RBA’s consecutive rate hikes. Also due Wednesday is the NAB business confidence index, which could cap off its two straight declines in the previous months.
By Thursday, we’ll get a better glimpse at Australia’s labor market as it releases its employment report at 1:30 am GMT. A total of 16,100 jobs are expected to be added in May, less than half as much as the 33,700 increase in hiring last April. This could keep their unemployment rate steady at 5.4% for the month. Keep your ears open for a speech by RBA Governor Glenn Stevens at 3:00 am on Thursday.
Australia won’t be releasing any economic reports on the last day of the week but stay tuned for economic figures from China. Being Australia’s top trade partner, China’s economic standing also has a huge impact on Australia’s. Watch out for the release of China’s CPI, industrial production, and PPI reports then!
Talk about a wipeout! The AUDUSD got hit by wave of risk aversion as local traders got their orders filled in. The pair dropped over 100 pips from its opening price, but found support at last month’s lows. Will support continue to hold?
It seems that traders completely ignored the ANZ job advertisement data that showed some positive results. Jobs ads rose by 4.3% last month, after analysts had predicted they would drop by 1.2%. This indicates that companies are now willing to hire. Could this translate to actual job hiring? We’ll know more later this week, when employment data will be available.
Just like other commodity-based currencies, the Aussie was able to stage a nice rally yesterday. The AUDUSD closed the US trading at .8275, which was 170 pips higher from its Asian session opening price.
From the looks of it, the Aussie was helped by the rise in commodity prices. Gold prices, for one, traded as high as $1,254 before retracing some of its gains.
However, earlier today, Australia’s report on home loans for April showed another decline, this time by 1.8%. It marked seventh consecutive month of decline, which gave a reason for traders to sell the Aussie.
No data coming out for the rest of the day, but do watch out for Australia’s reports on its labor market tomorrow. To be released at 1.30 am GMT, the report is expected to show that joblessness in Australia remained at 5.4% and that a net number of 16,100 people were hired in May. The positive forecast on the employment report may provide the Aussie with some buying support.
Despite the disappointing economic figures from Australia, the Aussie was able to rebound to a high of .8359, boosted by an improvement in risk appetite and the rate hike from its neighbor New Zealand.
Yesterday’s economic calendar showed a couple of red marks for Australia as consumer confidence and home loans both posted declines. Westpac’s index of consumer sentiment printed a 5.7% drop in confidence for May, following April’s 7.0% slide. This marks the indicator’s third consecutive negative reading, reflecting the ongoing deterioration in consumer confidence. Meanwhile, home loans saw a 1.8% drop in April after the 2.8% slide in the previous month. This suggests that the successive rate hikes by the RBA are taking toll on the housing market as higher borrowing costs dampen demand for mortgages.
Today, Australia is set to release its employment report at 1:30 am GMT. Net hiring is expected to climb by 20,100 in May, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 5.4%. Also due today is the inflation expectations report from the Melbourne Institute. In April, consumers expected inflation to pick up by 3.6% for the next 12 months. Would we see a downgrade or an upgrade in inflation expectations? Stay tuned for this report due 1:00 am GMT.
Cowabunga! Aussie bulls rode a wave of optimism, which pushed the AUDUSD two hundred pips higher! Will traders continue to be risk hungry today? Or could we see some profit taking take place?
Sentiment towards the Aussie got a boost when employment data presented some optimistic news. 26,900 net jobs were added to the economy last month, which was much higher than the anticipated increase of 20,100. This marked the third consecutive month that Australian companies have posted positive net job gains and also brought the unemployment rate down to 5.2%.
If this run of good fortune continues in the labor market, it would signal strength in the Australian economy. Who knows? The RBA might even change their minds about potential unevenness in the road to recovery!
The Aussie dollar also got a boost from a report from China that revealed that their trade surplus was at 19.5 billion yuan, more than double the 8.2 billion yuan forecast. Remember, China is one of Australia’s major trading partners, so whenever they post some positive economic data, it is normally bullish for the Aussie.
Looking ahead, nothing else is coming, but keep an eye out for equity and commodities trading. The rise in those markets the past few days has helped spur risk appetite, which bodes well for higher yielding currencies like the Australian dollar.
Fail! After the strong rally seen throughout the week, the Aussie was unable to break out of its double bottom pattern last Friday. If you’re at a loss as to what I’m talking about, head on over to Big Pippin’s blog.
All in all, the AUDUSD ended Friday at .8502, 270 pips higher from its opening price last week.
For this week, put the release of the Reserve bank of Australia’s meeting minutes on the “things to watch” list. Set to come out tomorrow at 1:30, the meeting minutes will outline the bank’s view on Australia’s economic conditions and could provide us with some insight on the bank’s future monetary policy.
After opening at .8531, the Aussie dashed to a high of .8668 against the greenback. Even though Australia didn’t release any economic figures, traders kept shopping for the Aussie as risk-taking became the latest trend.
For today, Australia is set to release the minutes of the RBA’s latest monetary policy meeting. Recall that RBA Governor Glenn Stevens and his buddies decided to pause from their rate hikes in their last monetary policy decision. The minutes of their meeting, which are due 1:30 am GMT, could shed more light on why they decided to do so. Aside from that, RBA policymakers’ remarks could contain hints on whether they’d resume their hikes in the next rate statement.
Gap close? Check! After treading lower early in the Asian session and closing the weekend gap, risk hungry traders took their places at the table and gobbled up the Aussie dollar. The AUDUSD pushed higher, closing at .8659, up 150 pips from its low for the day.
In the RBA monetary policy statement yesterday, Governor Glenn Stevens said that the bank’s decision to bring rates back to average levels gave him and his mates more flexibility on how to deal with current debt crisis in Europe. The RBA recently paused from hiking interest rates, citing potential contagion fears from Europe. Many expect that we may not see any rates hikes over the next couple of months.
Earlier today, the Melbourne Institute released its leading index, which showed no change. This indicates that the institute expects the economy to maintain its pace of recovery. Let’s see if it deteriorates in coming months, especially with all the concerns about the euro zone.
No big news coming out for the rest of the week, but I suggest keeping an eye out for commodity trading. Risk appetite seems to be major market theme right now, so we may just see the Aussie maintain its bullish run.
After trending higher for six straight days, the AUDUSD bulls decided to slow down and take a break yesterday. The losses were minimal though, as the pair ended the US trading session just 22 pips lower from its Asian session opening price.
Australia’s economic calendar for today is completely barren, which means the AUDUSD’s price action will most likely be driven by data from the US. Keep an eye out for the US consumer price index and the Philadelphia manufacturing index, as better-than-expected results could fuel risk appetite and be catalyst for the AUDUSD to head higher.
The Aussie must be feeling pretty stoked yesterday as it surfed higher against the Greenback, pushing the AUDUSD to a high of .8683. Even though Australia didn’t release any economic figures then, a strong wave of risk appetite kept the Aussie on cloud nine.
Australia won’t be releasing any economic reports again today so watch out for any sudden shifts in risk sentiment. Then again, without any major catalysts from other economies, the AUDUSD might stay range-bound unless risk aversion gets back in the game.
Thank you mate! Thanks to news that China would be allowing the yuan to appreciate, the AUDUSD gapped up over 100 pips to start the week at .8817, its highest level in over a month.
A stronger yuan bodes well for the Australian economy, as China is one of Australia’s main trading partners. This is because a stronger yuan means more purchasing power for Chinese importers, which means that they could step up their orders of Australian raw materials.
No biggies on this week’s economic calendar, so we may see Aussie trading to be driven by shifts in risk sentiment. As I always say, keep those in risk management rules in check and be careful trading, especially in this choppy environment. You never know when sentiment will change on a dime!
What a rollercoaster ride it has been for the AUDUSD yesterday! After unexpectedly opening up the week with a huge 100-pip gap, the AUDUSD still had some juice left to rally further and post a new monthly high at .8860. Unfortunately, .8860 also proved to be that day’s top, as the pair quickly reversed all of its gains to end the US trading session at .8769.
Australia has nothing to offer on its economic calendar today, which will probably keep the Aussie bound between yesterday’s highs and lows. Still, keep your eyes peeled for a possible break of support at .8755… Sooner or later, that weekend gap has to fill!
The Aussie kept attempting to close its weekend gap yesterday as it edged lower and lower against the Greenback. The lack of economic releases from Australia was probably one of the reasons why the Aussie couldn’t pull its own weight.
The Aussie rally spurred by China’s decision to adopt a more flexible exchange rate policy seemed to fizzle yesterday as the AUDUSD was unable to bust above the .8800 handle. Without any economic figures to boost its morale, the AUDUSD slid to a low of .8741 during the US session.
Australia’s economic calendar is empty again today so be on the lookout for other market events that could have an impact on the Aussie’s movement. Its Oceanic neighbor, New Zealand, will be releasing its GDP report later on and is expected to show weaker economic growth for the first quarter. Also stay on your toes during the FOMC statement at 6:15 pm GMT since this could set off some fireworks in the markets.
“All gaps fill!” The saying held true once again yesterday, as the AUDUSD dipped and closed the gap that was created over the weekend. However, we didn’t see any follow through, as the pair jumped back up to close at .8729, just a few pips from its opening price.
The Australian economic platter has been empty the past few days. With no data scheduled for the rest of the week, it’s time to chill out and go surfing right?
WRONG!
Just because no economic data is coming out doesn’t mean we won’t see any big moves! Apparently, there’s some political turmoil boiling, as Prime Minister Kevin Rudd just resigned! Rudd was receiving criticism for his recent decision to raise taxes on mining companies. Take note, mining is one of Australia’s biggest industries, so any shifts in policies can have major impacts on the economy. Let’s see if the political tension will cause some bearish moves in the Aussie.
It was a difficult day for the Aussie yesterday, as it struggled to hold on to its gains over the dollar. Sadly, the dollar proved to be too strong, causing the Aussie to eventually give way. The AUDUSD closed out the day at .8662, down 90 pips from its opening price.
One important piece of information that dragged the Aussie yesterday was the resignation of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. Apparently, the criticism he has been receiving regarding raising taxes on mining companies was just way too much. Hah, I guess even those high-profile politicians have their boiling point!
In any case, after yesterday’s strong down move, it looks like the Aussie is trying to find direction. With the absence of economic reports today, we could see the Aussie move sideways and continue to consolidate between .8645 and .8680.
After sliding down for an entire week, the AUDUSD pulled up last Friday and closed at 0.8751. No economic reports were released from Australia as traders fussed over the new Prime Minister’s stance on the mining tax.
Prime Minister Julia Gillard said that she’s open to negotiations on the Australian mining tax, suggesting that the government would try to reach a compromise with the miners. This allowed the Aussie to gain a bit of ground as traders grew less worried that higher mining taxes could eventually hurt investment and growth in Australia.
Australia’s economic schedule is report-free for the first couple of days of this week. By Wednesday, the HIA new home sales data and private sector credit report will be released. These reports are slated to have minimal impact on the Aussie’s movement so if you’re in for the more hardcore reports, stay tuned for the release of the building approvals and retail sales data on Thursday. Building approvals aren’t expected to post any gains in May but retail sales are hoping for a 0.3% uptick for the month. Stronger than expected figures could push the Aussie higher this week.
Argh! Don’t you just hate choppy waves when you’re surfing? AUDUSD stayed within range and closed just 12 pips lower for the day. Is it time to just chill by the beach and drink an ice cold beer?
With no data coming out again, that might actually be a good idea! But of course, this is the forex market – you never know when you might get hit by a splash of unexpected volatility! Watch out for reports from other countries, as they could prove to be catalysts for big moves.
Also, take not that this week is the half year end for many countries. Traders may look to readjust their positions as they lock in some profits (or cut losses!), so we may see some unexpected spikes in trading throughout the week.
Saying that the Aussie lost a lot of ground yesterday would be an understatement. In just one day, the Aussie dropped more than 220 pips against both the dollar and the yen.
The Aussie’s poor performance was mainly the result of the downward revision on China’s leading index. The index, which previously printed a reading of 1.7%, was revised down to a mere 0.3%, indicating that economic growth will probably much be much slower than initially expected. Traders saw this as Aussie negative, as Australia has been known to be one of China’s major exporters.
Nothing on Australia’s economic cupboard today, but please do watch out for the reports on building approvals and retail sales early tomorrow at 1:30 am GMT. Building approvals are expected to have remained flat in May, while retail sales probably rose by 0.3% for the same period. If the actual figures come in below expectations, we could see the Aussie get sold-off again across the board.