The Aussie had some eenie-meenie-miney-mo movement yesterday as it moved up and down against the Greenback before finally making up its mind and falling to a low of .8436.
On the economic front, Australian figures weren’t their usual stellar selves yesterday. The new home sales report showed that home purchases plunged by 6.4% in May, erasing its 6.2% gain last April. Oh dear, it seems that the consecutive increases in borrowing costs are still hurting Australia’s housing market.
On a brighter note, private sector credit rose in June. The report showed a 0.5% increase, which was higher than the expected 0.4% rise and the previous 0.3% uptick. This suggests that lending still goes on at a healthy pace for the Land Down Under.
Later on, the AIG manufacturing index revealed that industry expansion slowed in June as the reading dipped from 56.3 to 52.9. Hmm, I’m not so used to seeing signs of weakness in Australia! Could this mean that another rate hike this month is unlikely?
Maybe it’d be better if we took a look at the upcoming economic reports first. Today, Australia is set to release its building approvals and retail sales data. Building approvals are expected to stay flat in May after suffering a massive 14.8% decline in the previous month. Retail sales are expecting to see a 0.3% increase in May, half as much as the 0.6% rise seen in April. Weaker than expected figures could push the Aussie lower so stay on your toes during the release of these reports at 1:30 am GMT.
It looked like the Aussie was going to drown earlier in the day, but thanks to broadbased dollar weakness, AUDUSD was able to keep its head above water (chartwise, quite literally). After testing as low as .8317, AUDUSD formed a nice hammer, to close above a key Fib level at .8436.
The Aussie took a dip in the deep end early in the Asian session, as poor data weighed it down. First, retail sales data came in feebly, printing growth in sales by just 0.2%. It was expected to rise by 0.3%. Meanwhile, building approvals fell by 6.6%, after they had fallen by 14.8% in April. Hmmm… poor data on the Australian front? Perhaps the RBA should continue to pause rates in the meantime.
Still, thanks to some serious dollar weakness, the Aussie was able to stay ahead. Its gains though, were limited thanks to poor commodity trading. Hmmm… are we seeing a break in the normal risk correlations?
No data on deck today, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see wild moves in the markets. After all that has happened this week, I think its safe to say that anything can happen, just like its possible that Lebron James will find his way to the Lakers. Hey, it can happen! In any case, be careful out there and make sure you keep those risk management rules in check!
After reaching an intraday high of 0.8511, AUDUSD traded lower to close last Friday with a 35 pip loss at .8427.
A whip of girl power sent the Aussie off to a good start in Friday’s Asian trading session. The New Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, said that the mining tax plan has been signed, sealed and delivered to miners with the rate affecting only iron-ore and coal mines and being reduced from 40% to 30%.
But it seems like the tax plan didn’t have enough sugar, spice and everything nice to protect the Aussie from the villainous effects of disappointing US data. AUDUSD started its descent in the charts when the NFP report came out worse than expected and caused panic for global economic recovery. Yikes!
We don’t have anything on our calendar that may power puff the Aussie up into the bulls’ territory today. But high-caliber reports will start coming out tomorow. At 1:30 am GMT, we’ll have the Australian Bureau of Statistics reporting on the country’s trade balance for May. It is expected that exports exceed imports by 550 million AUD, which is a significant difference from the 130 million AUD surplus seen in April. Then, at 4:30 am GMT, we’ll have the Reserve Bank of Australia talking about the country’s interest rates.
If you’re planning to go long on the Aussie you better keep your fingers crossed that it announces a hike. Errrrr, I don’t know about your chances with that though since recent economic reports from Australia haven’t really swept me off my feet, but that’s just me. Good luck!
It was good while it lasted, mates! After getting a boost from the economic reports released early in the day, the Aussie tumbled back down on rumors that the RBA won’t hike interest rates after all. AUDUSD slipped to .8383 from its intraday high of .8468, while AUDJPY peaked at 74.48 before closing at 73.56.
The annualized TD Securities inflation report for June sparked rumors for an interest rate hike when it showed a 3.6% uptick after rising by 3.7% in May. Because the University of Melbourne also uses the same formula as the government’s CPI calculation, the increase was taken as an inflationary pressure.
The monthly job advertisements figure for June was also a red cape to the Aussie bulls when it rose by 2.7% after increasing by 4.3% last May. This signaled that employment was strong despite the cooling of export demand from Asia.
Too bad the traders chose to pay attention to the AIG Services report released late Sunday. The index presented an improvement of 48.8 from May’s 47.5 figure, but it wasn’t enough for the bulls who were waiting for the 50.0 industry expansion signal.
Were the bulls right in not taking the bait of the recent reports? We’ll find out today when the RBA announces their interest rate decision at 4:30 am GMT. The rate is expected to remain at 4.5%, but maybe the RBA will make some important announcements.
The trade balance report is also due today at 1:30 am GMT, and while it isn’t as big as the interest rate decision, the report will give us clues on the health of the export sector. The number is expected to increase to 0.53B AUD from April’s 0.13B AUD number, but a higher figure would support the earlier inflation-friendly reports since exports make up a huge chunk of the Australian GDP. Hold on to your seats!
Australia brought out the big guns yesterday! The RBA’s encouraging comments coupled with a positive trade balance report pumped up AUDUSD from a low of .8317 to a high of.8561. The Aussie’s finally flexing its muscles!
Even though the RBA decided to hold its interest rates at 4.50%, they were still able to provide the Aussie with solid backing by releasing some upbeat words. RBA Governor Stevens came out to say that they believe China will be expanding at a more sustainable level, and that the entire Asian economy will continue to see sharp growth. Remember, majority of Australia’s trade is conducted with its neighboring Asian countries. In other words, this could mean greater demand for Australia’s exports. Ka-ching!
In other news, the Australian trade balance widened from 1.12 billion AUD to 1.65 billion AUD in May. Not only did the May 2010 results trample forecasts of a narrower surplus at 0.53 billion AUD, but it also reached heights not seen since May 2009. It’s no wonder Aussie bulls had a field day!
No hard-hitting reports on deck for today. In the meantime, be sure to monitor risk sentiment, since it seems to be driving the Aussie’s moves lately.
The Aussie did not wake up in Sydney feeling like Pip Diddy yesterday, as the bears charged AUDUSD down to its lowest at .8450. But the currency’s ‘Imma-fight-til- I-see-the-sunlight’ attitude allowed it to end the New York session only 14 pips lower than the day’s high at .8646.
Risk sentiment seems to have walked back into the markets because even yesterday’s disappointing construction figures didn’t stop the Aussie from making ‘em pips pop! The decrease in the AIG Performance of Construction index to 46.4 in June from May’s 53.2translated to the weakest figure in ten months. Could this be because of the [RBA](http://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/RBA)’s interest hike frenzies?
The labor market doesn’t seem to think so because today’s [employment reports](http://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/Employment_Change_-_Australia) just wowed the markets. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, 45,900 jobs were added in June, beating the consensus which was only at 15,000. It also added that the [unemployment rate](http://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/Unemployment_Rate) was 0.1% lower than last month’s 5.1%.
Hmm, it seems like the Aussie woke up today feeling a million pips richer! There are no Australian reports left on our new-and-improved [calendar](http://www.babypips.com/tools/forex-calendar/) today. So you may want to tune in to equities and commodities as the Aussie seems to groove along with them. Good luck on your trades today!
Giant leaps were made in Australia yesterday, and it had nothing to do with kangaroos. After getting a boost from the stronger-than-expected reports last Tuesday, the Aussie gained strength from the risk appetite rally yesterday. AUDUSD jumped 149 pips to an intraday high of 0.8792 before it closed at 0.8774.
The large increase in Australia’s trade balance and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish statements last Tuesday contradicted the rumors that Australia’s high interest rates and the weakening demand from Asia had been affecting the Australian economy. This set the foundation for the strong risk appetite rally early this week.
The rally was sustained when Australia’s data reflected that their unemployment rate remained at May’s 5.1% figure, but the number of employed workers increased by 45,900, greater than the expected 15,300. The data supported the earlier reports that the country can survive a high interest rate after all.
The US and euro zone news also kept the risk appetite rally chugging when the initial jobless claimants in the US dropped to 454,000 from last week’s 472,000, and ECB president Jean Claude Trichet talked about their region’s economic recovery gaining momentum.
Lastly, the IMF fueled the rally when they adjusted the 2010 global growth forecast to 4.6% from April’s 4.2%, and stated that the growth in the emerging economies are making up for the financial troubles of the other regions. The potential commodity demand from those emerging nations was good news for the commodity-related Aussie.
The IMF also gave a nod to Australia when they acknowledged that they expect the country’s growth in 2010 to double that of their 2009 growth rate. Take that, you Aussie bears!
Australia will take a break from the all the exciting economic releases today, but watch for any end-of-the-week surprises that might shift risk sentiment!
It was another “g’day” down in Australia as the Aussie chalked up another win. It solidified its position as one of the best performing currencies last week when the AUDUSD rose from its intraday low of .8728 to close at .8773 at the end of the day.
The Aussie was once again lifted by soaring gold prices and the risk appetite that hit investors’ bellies. Don’t forget, gold is one of Australia’s biggest exports, so it’s usually good for its economy and currency when gold prices are on the rise.
Bulls and bears, get your horns and claws ready because it’s the start of a new week!
We got our first taste of reports early this morning when the May home loans data revealed a 1.9% increase in the number of new loans granted for homes. This comes as a pleasant surprise because the previous month experienced a 1.5% decline, which had analysts forecast a modest 0.7% growth in May.
On Tuesday, we have the NAB business confidence report on deck. Will the bears take over if the report prints below the reading of 5 earned in May? There’s only one way to find out! Catch it at 1:30 am GMT!
The day after that, the Westpac consumer confidence data, which gave a reading of -5.7% last month, is scheduled for release. Can July outperform June and send Aussie bulls charging forward? Find out on Wednesday at 12:30 am GMT!
Mark your calendars because also on Wednesday, at 3:05 am GMT, RBA Governor Stevens is supposed to give a speech entitled “Some Long-Run Effects of the Financial Crisis.” Be sure to listen in on what he has to say because he could trigger a bull run (or bear run) if he lets out some hawkish (or dovish) comments.
AUDUSD traded lower yesterday after touching the day’s high at 0.8781. The pair rock bottomed just barely above the 0.8700 handle before it closed the day at 0.8753. Too bad the Aussie doesn’t have the gripping skills of those cuddly Koalas!
Yesterday’s positive report on the country’s lending and housing finance didn’t seem to give the bulls enough strength to hold on. Investment lending for May was so much better than June’s 0.8% reading by printing a 2.6% increase in June. Even the one for housing which seemed pretty sweet like sugar at 1.9% in May, beating April’s -1.8% reading, didn’t boost the currency. This must have crushed the Aussie bulls’ hearts because the better-than-expected figure was supposed to be the green light for them to go on another rally, indicating that the Australian market is back on track. Sigh.
It seems like they could be in for another heartbreak. Uh oh. Earlier today, the NAB business confidence index printed a 1-point decrease in June from the previous month’s reading of 5. The decline could translate that businessmen from the Land Down Under aren’t optimistic about future economic conditions.
That clears our economic calendar from Australian reports for today. So be careful with your Aussie trades by making sure you gauge the market’s risk sentiment. If not, you may be the one to end up with a broken heart and a broken account. Good luck!
Like the country’s famous animal, the traders were hopping into the Aussie bandwagon. The Australian dollar trimmed off its losses in the early trading sessions yesterday after the better than expected Greek bond auction boosted the appetite for high-yielding currencies. AUDUSD ended the day at 0.8842 after hitting an intraday low of 0.8746.
The business confidence report released by the National Australia Bank also tickled the Aussie bulls’ funny bones when the data revealed that companies are generally more optimistic on Australia’s economic growth. Can this translate to more employment? Hmm…
Well, today’s another lucky day for those bulls! The Westpac Consumer Sentiment for July printed a reading of 113.1, which was much better than June’s release of 101.9. The Aussies are getting more confident on the Aussie! Ace!
No other big report will be out today, but keep it tabs with any news that might shift risk appetite!
Whoa! Check out the Aussie hanging ten! The Aussie was caught surfin’ its way up the charts yesterday, after the release of the Westpac consumer confidence data. Cowabunga! AUDUSD took a cool 27-pip ride up to close at .8827 at the end of yesterday’s trading sessions.
The Aussie dollar started the day off on the right foot when the Westpac consumer confidence report gave positive feedback. The report suggested that Australians are beginning to look at the bright side of things, as it upgraded its reading from 101.9 to 113.1 in July. This had Aussie bulls foaming at the mouth because the 11.1% leap could translate to more consumer spending as the public became more confident in their financial positions.
What does today have in store for us? Just a few minutes ago, the July MI inflation expectations report came out to reveal expectations of a 3.3% increase in prices, down 0.1% from last month. Already, the Aussie bears are reacting! But will this continue through the day? Stay tuned to find out!
The Aussie was unable to reel in bulls despite the dollar’s weakness yesterday. After opening at .8833, AUDUSD just seesawed up and down the .8800 handle. The bears gained the upper hand when the US session started, driving AUDUSD to the day’s low at .8727, but they eventually lost control and let the pair end at .8825.
Hmm, the decline in Melbourne Institute’s inflation expectations index from 3.4% in May to 3.3% in June, may have been a shock to the heart. Currency traders are anticipating for an interest hike and that decline could have weighed down on their optimism. Boo hoo!
The improvement in new motor vehicles sales for the same month to -1.2% from May’s -3.9% reading wasn’t enough to cheer up bulls. This also led me to wonder if it was more than just inflation expectations and China may have something to do with it.
Earlier this week we saw that China’s GDP printed lower at 10.3% for the second quarter from a previous reading of 11.9%. Since it is Australia’s biggest trading partner I’m speculating that may be some investors are worried that China’s slowing growth may take a toll on Australia’s economy too. Sigh.
Without anything on tap from the Land Down Under today, how will the Aussie bulls fare against those bears? Keep tabs on the charts and see for yourself. Good luck!
Boing! Like a springy kangaroo, the Aussie touched the ground last Friday after enjoying days of rallies against the majors. AUDUSD fell by 148 pips from its open price and closed at .8697, while AUDJPY took a 192-pip hit from its open price to land at 75.36.
It seems like risk aversion, which clouded the markets last Friday, acted as the gravity for the currency.
Will the Aussie have a chance to bounce up this week? The RBA is scheduled to release their minutes tomorrow at 1:30 am GMT. Hmm, will the RBA give clues on their next interest rate decision? Don’t miss this report!
The Westpac Leading Index will also be released on Wednesday at 12:30 am GMT. An improvement from May’s stagnant growth might be better for the currency as it might signal more inflationary pressures for an interest rate hike.
Lastly, the data on the country’s import and export prices for the second quarter will be published on Friday at 1:30 am GMT. The export prices are expected to increase by 12% from last quarter’s 3.8% growth, while import prices are also estimated to surpass last quarter’s 0.3% rise to a 1.0% improvement.
“Don’t count me out just yet, baby!” said the Aussie to its forex fans. It bounced back from Friday’s big loss and marked a decent win over the Greenback to start the week. AUDUSD rose 42 pips to close at .8705 during yesterday’s trading sessions.
Though the Australian press didn’t publish any data for the Aussie bulls to feed on, the Aussie found enough fuel to rally from the wave of risk appetite that hit the markets.
Maybe today’s release of the RBA’s monetary policy meeting minutes will give Aussie bulls something to talk about. Since the minutes contain what was discussed in the RBA’s most recent meeting, you might just find out what Governor Stevens got his wife for their anniversary! More importantly, you could find yourself in the middle of a bull run if the report reveals an optimistic outlook for the Australian economy. No need to wait much longer! Catch it in just a few minutes, at 9:30 am GMT!
Did you see the Aussie sprint up the charts yesterday like a Tasmanian devil running after its dinner?! AUDUSD opened just barely above the 0.8705 handle and reached an intraday high of 0.8839 and closed the day only 7 pips below it.
So to what does the Aussie owe its delicious 127-pip gain to?
If you guessed the RBA, then you’re right! Yesterday’s release of the minutes of RBA’s June meeting detailed the monetary policy committee’s openness to another interest hike. Aaah… I can just hear the Aussie bulls singing the Hallelujah chorus.
According to the central bank, its next interest rate decision (to be announced in August) will be determined by the official inflation report. This means that if the CPI for the second quarter prints higher than expected we may just see the Aussie bulls stuff their tummies with a load of pips as heavy as a kangaroo!
But that CPI data isn’t due until Wednesday next week. So for the meantime let’s just focus on the daily economic reports to keep up the hype.
Earlier today, the Westpac-MI leading index was reported to have been higher at 0.2% in May after being stagnant in April. The increase could indicate that the economy is well underway to recovery. Boo yeah!
We don’t have anything for tomorrow but on Friday we’ll have import and export prices on tap. Happy trading guys!
Why, oh why, couldn’t the Aussie stay high? Despite printing a better than expected leading index yesterday, the Australian dollar crumbled against the heat of risk aversion that softened the comdolls. AUDUSD played along a 70-pip range before dropping to its .8781 close.
As it turned out, many analysts believe that Australia's economic data had reached its peak. The gauge of Australia’s economic growth might have printed a 0.2% increase in May, but the annualized growth of 6.7% already fell short of the 7.5% annualized figure for April.
The wave of risk aversion also pulled the Aussie down after the worries on the EU stress test and [Bernanke](http://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/Ben_Bernanke)’s dovish statements sent the traders to the safety of the low-yielding currencies.
Will the data today support the sinking expectations? The quarterly business confidence report will be released at 1:30 am GMT. The index fell by one point at 17 during the first quarter of 2010, and further drops might signal slower economic growth for Australia.
“I am Aussie, hear me roar!!!” Just like the wolverine (either the animal or Hugh Jackman, whichever you prefer), the Aussie was beastly on the charts yesterday! It tore right through its American counterpart, ramming AUDUSD up 149 pips to .8931, and forging a new two-month high!
The Aussie must have been infected by the good vibes from Europe, as both the euro zone and the UK had a stellar performance following the release of positive economic data.
Investors were so gaga for the Aussie, that even the poor NAB quarterly business confidence data wasn’t enough to hold it from rampaging up the charts. The report showed a significant drop from the previous quarter’s reading of 17 to just 3 in Q2 2010.
In just a few minutes, at 1:30 am GMT, the quarterly import prices report will be available. After showing a 0.3% increase in prices back in Q1 of 2010, the report is now expected to reveal that imports were 1.0% more expensive in Q2 of 2010. Aussie bulls, get ready! Rising import prices are usually the first signs of future inflation, so you may just have another chance to ride the Aussie rally if the report prints an upside surprise.
The Aussie’s pip-gy bank got heavier last Friday thanks to the rally in equities and improved risk appetite. AUDUSD traded within a 76-pip range above the .8900 handle last Friday and closed the week with a 40-pip gain for the Aussie.
But it wasn’t just the stocks and the EU stress test results that fattened up the Aussie’s pip-gy bank. The surge in import and export prices in the second quarter by 1.9% and 16.1% respectively, definitely put in a handful of pips in there too! Because not only did the prices overshoot the forecasts which were at 1% for imports and 13.5% for exports, they also revealed the biggest increase since the last quarter of 2008!
Uh oh. It looks like the bulls won’t be adding as much pips to the Aussie’s savings today as they did last Friday. Earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that producer prices fell short of the 1.2% consensus by printing at 0.3% for the second quarter. Ouch. That may leave a scare on the bulls’ pip plans for today.
There’s nothing left on our calendar for the Aussie until tomorrow. But you have to have to be on your toes for the CPI report on Wednesday! The RBA mentioned last week that their interest rate decision will depend largely on that. So remember, Wednesday is Aussie’s day!
Good thing the Aussie bulls believed in the motto “losing is a state of mind” after they bought the currency despite the downside surprise in Australia’s economic data. AUDUSD paused its 79-pip climb near the 0.8970 mark before it closed at .9033. Meanwhile, AUDJPY dipped to an intraday low of 77.78 before closing 11 pips higher than its open price at 78.49.
The 0.3% quarterly increase in Australia’s producer prices gave traders a pause after many already pegged a 1.1% rise in the figure. The less-than-awesome figure softened the demand for the Aussie because it contradicted the wide belief that RBA is going to raise their interest rates next week.
Will the positive leading index for May be any help for the currency? Hours ago the data showed a 0.3% increase after its 0.1% rise last April. Hmm, maybe traders will wait for the quarterly CPI report tomorrow at 1:30 am GMT to guess the RBA’s next moves. Keep an eye out for any reports that might tip the scale in favor of an interest rate hike!
“It stops at three!” said the USD to the Aussie as AUDUSD failed to climb for the fourth straight day. In the end, the pair finished at .9022, just 10 pips below its opening price.
The Aussie started things off on the right foot, when the CB leading index upgraded its reading from 0.1% to 0.3% in May. But its celebrations were cut short after a US report that revealed low consumer confidence strengthened the USD.
But that was yesterday’s news and you’re probably more interested in what the future has in store for you.
Well look no further than at 1:30 am GMT today as Australia is set to bring out the big guns when it publishes its quarterly CPI figures. Forecasts are for a 1.0% increase in prices in Q2 of 2010, after Q1 2010 experienced a 0.9% uptick.
Expect big movements when the report comes out because the RBA has been very vocal about the importance of this CPI report to their future monetary policy decisions. The Aussie might just find itself back down in the ditches if the report fails to meet expectations.