For the third straight day, the Aussie found itself holding on to the shortest end of the stick. As a result of the market’s aversion to risk, the currency was sold off heavily against both the safe haven Greenback and the low-yielding yen.
The Aussie tumbled primarily because of the weak PMI figures from China. China is Australia’s biggest export market, and any slowdown in the country could negatively impact Australia’s economy too.
Australia’s economic calendar today is completely barren so don’t hold your breath and expect a lot of action! Nevertheless, do be careful once the U.S. trading session starts because there will be a couple of major reports coming out from both the U.S. and Canada that could indirectly affect the Aussie’s price action.
The Aussie jumped up like a baby joey to end the week, paring some of its earlier losses. AUD/USD rose 78 pips to end the week at 1.0467. Will the Aussie bulls continue to charge today?
Once again, the Aussie moved to news from China, whose central bank said that it would be implementing “differentiated reserve requirement ratios”. This would help free up more liquidity, boosting the Chinese economy. If there’s anything we’ve learned over the past week, it’s that if China’s flexing its muscles, the Aussie tends to benefit!
No hard data lined up from Australia this week, but that don’t mean we can just chill out and down a couple of beers. We’re starting to see some crazy moves in the market, so make sure you stay up-to-date and check my blog regularly!
One more and it’s a hat trick! Tanks to wide-spread dollar weakness, the Aussie was able to post another winning day yesterday. AUD/USD ended the U.S. trading session at 1.0534, a very respectable 71 pips higher from its opening price that day.
Australia didn’t release any high impact economic reports yesterday and none are scheduled again today. With only a handful of medium-tier data releases coming out from other major economies, we could see the Aussie trade mainly sideways.
It ends at two! The Aussie failed to seal a winning streak against the Greenback yesterday when concerns about China hit the appetite for high-yielding currencies. AUD/USD ended up falling by 67 pips to its 1.0466 closing price.
No economic data was released from the Land Down Under yesterday, but a report from China, Australia’s largest trading partner, stated that corporate profits fell by as much as 5.2% in February, its first decline since 2009. If you remember, investors were already skittish on the thought that China might be experiencing an economic slowdown. This is probably why high-yielding comdolls such as the Aussie, Loonie, and Kiwi all lost ground against the low-yielding dollar yesterday.
The RBA financial stability review, the only report scheduled for the day, was also released a couple of minutes ago. According to the report, the RBA sees the financial market environment on a more stable footing, and that Australian banks are equipped to address financial troubles. The question is, will this report help the Aussie today?
Stay at the edge of your seats for any reports that might affect the Aussie’s price action!
For a second trading day in a row, the Aussie headed [I]down under[/I] the charts. AUD/USD opened at 1.0466 and traded all the way down to 1.0356 before ending the day at 1.0396.
Concerns about slowing growth in China which may consequently take a toll on Australian exports continued to plague the Aussie. On top of that, a report was also released yesterday which cited that growth in bank lending has been the slowest since August 2011.
The RBA’s Financial Stability Review also might have weighed on the comdoll as it stated that consumers are more focused on increasing their savings rather than spending.
Our forex calendar is blank for reports from the Land Down Under today. This probably means that market sentiment will continue to dictate the Aussie’s price action so be sure to keep tabs on updates with regards to increasing the EFSF and ESM.
Check out that huge upward gap that AUD/USD made over the weekend! Could this mean that the pair is ready to recover from last week’s losses or is this merely a retracement? Take a look at the upcoming data from Australia to find out!
Stronger than expected Chinese manufacturing PMI released on Sunday gave the Aussie a big boost to start the week. The figure came in at 53.1, higher than the predicted 50.9 reading, which shows that expansion in China’s manufacturing industry is still going strong. Let’s hope this isn’t an April Fools’ Day hoax though!
Today, Australia is set to report its building approvals figure which could show a 0.4% uptick for February. Although this would be a bit lower than the 0.9% growth printed for January, the Aussie could stay afloat if the actual figure meets or even beats expectations.
Price action could heat up for the Aussie the next day as the Land Down Under will release its retail sales report while the RBA will make its rate statement. Pretty exciting, huh? Retail sales for February are expected to be up by 0.2%, slightly lower than the 0.3% increase for January. Meanwhile, the central bank is slated to keep rates on hold at 4.25% again as RBA policymakers believe that risks to growth have subsided. If you’re planning to trade this report, make sure you read up on my buddy Forex Gump’s ideas on how to play the RBA decision.
On Wednesday, Australia will release its trade balance and possibly show a return to a trade surplus for February. Bear in mind that even though there are less reports due from Australia during the second half of the week, the pre-NFP jitters could take over and set off some fireworks across the charts. Be careful out there!
The Aussie received a small blow to the gut yesterday as an important economic report failed to meet market forecast. AUD/USD closed the U.S. trading session at 1.0425, 19 pips lower from its opening price.
The report on building approvals came in with a disappointing 7.8% decrease. It was completely the opposite of the 0.4% gain initially anticipated and last month’s 1.1% increase (revised up from 0.9%). Then, earlier today, the retail sales report for February printed. It showed a gain of 0.2%, just as expected.
Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s interest rate decision will be announced. The market widely expects the bank to keep rates unchanged at 4.25% amid the slower growth in both Europe and China. If the RBA deviates from the forecast, expect to see a lot of fireworks on the Aussie!
Oh, that’s gotta hurt! The Aussie was hit hard by a combo of weak Australian data and strong U.S. fundamentals yesterday. AUD/USD was dragged from its intraday high of 1.0466 all the way to its 1.0330 closing price.
With a surprisingly dovish RBA minutes on the currency bears’ side, who could blame investors for selling the comdoll? Of course, it didn’t help that the Fed was surprisingly optimistic in its FOMC minutes. The FOMC data highlighted the gap between the direction of the two central banks, which soon took its toll on the Aussie.
Will today’s data help the comdoll pare its losses? Data released a couple of minutes ago revealed the AIG service index rising to a reading of 47.0 in March, which is only a bit better than its 46.7 reading in February.
But wait, there’s more! At 2:30 am GMT we’ll get hold of Australia’s trade balance data. Will the report reflect China’s weak trade conditions we saw early last month? Stay alert, homies!
Though the Aussie has been weak in recent weeks, it was not left out in last Friday’s rally. AUD/USD swung wildly minutes after the U.S. NFP report was released, but it ended the day 7 pips higher at 1.0310.
Aussie traders didn’t really have much to work with last Friday since Australia didn’t publish any reports. I suppose that’s why the Aussie was able to go with the flow of the markets and ride the anti-Greenback sentiment up the charts.
Our economic calendar may have been empty for Australia last Friday, but this week will be peppered with reports!
The main release we have to watch out for this week is the employment data due on Thursday at 1:30 am GMT. Survey says that the job market saw gains of 6,700 last month, a nice improvement from the previous month’s 15,400 decrease. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 5.2% to 5.3%.
The Aussie took another small step up the charts yesterday as it recorded its third straight victory against the Greenback. Though AUD/USD traded relatively flatly, it ended the day 24 pips higher at 1.0322. Will its streak end at three or will it post a fourth day of gains?
With only the AIG construction index on the docket, there wasn’t really much for Aussie sellers to work with. The report printed a reading of 36.2, up from 35.6 in February. It seems like the construction industry is still in a rut, as it has failed to post a reading above the 50.0 baseline level for almost two years now.
Looking at the report’s details, I guess you can say that demand for construction is about as weak as the Lakers without Kobe! Residential and commercial construction are still down in the dumps and house building construction has fallen to its lowest level in six months!
In other news, the ANZ job advertisements report showed an increase of 1.0%, which is much lower than the 3.3% surge we saw in February.
Meanwhile, the NAB business confidence index ticked up from 1 to 3 last month, indicating improving conditions amid positive signs from the U.S. and European economies. Finally, some good news!
That’s about it from Australia today. If you plan on trading AUD/USD later on, keep in mind that many traders will be returning from an extended weekend, and that may result in increased volatility. Good luck with your trading, homies!
The streak ends at three! AUD/USD was unable to post a fourth straight day of gains as it slid 69 pips to 1.0253. Ouch! Talk about undoing all your progress!
As I had mentioned yesterday, the ANZ job ads report printed a 1.0% increase following the previous month’s 3.0% uptick. Meanwhile, the NAB business confidence posted an upbeat improvement as the index’s reading rose from 1 to 3 last month.
Unfortunately, all of this did little to overcome the market’s risk aversion, and the Australian dollar found itself sliding down the charts.
In other news, today’s reports have come out already! First off, the Westpac consumer sentiment report printed a reading of -1.6%, up from -5.0% last month. Sadly, this means that our homies down in Australia are still worried as heck about their personal finances. But on the bright side, they are a bit more optimistic as far as economic outlook is concerned.
Meanwhile, the home loans report printed a 2.5% decline in February, which is slightly better than the 3.6% slide that economists had predicted.
That’s about it for today. Since we won’t be getting any more reports from the Land Down Under, I suggest y’all keep tabs on risk sentiment. If it stays sour, it could mean more losses for the Aussie! Good luck and happy pipping, fellas!
The Australian dollar benefited from the small risk rally we say yesterday, as it nearly recovered all its losses from the day prior. AUD/USD rose from its daily low at 1.0226 to finish at 1.0298, about 35 pips above its opening price for the day.
Can the Aussie continue its nice run or will we see the bears take over soon? We’ll know in a couple of hours when employment data comes out! Word from the Land Down Under is that 6,400 jobs were added last March, which would be a nice reversal from February, when 15,400 people lost their jobs.
Unfortunately, the unemployment rate is projected to tick higher at 5.3%, after it was at just 5.2% last month.
If these reports come in much better-than-anticipated, it could give the Australian dollar the boost it needs to continue to climb up the charts.
Way to go, Aussie! Thanks to better than expected jobs data and strong figures from China, Aussie pairs pocketed plenty of gains in yesterday’s trading with AUD/USD breaking above the 1.0400 handle and AUD/JPY closing at 84.37. Will the Aussie be able to hold on to its gains today?
Australia’s jobs data came in surprisingly better than expected for March, with its employment change figure coming in nearly SEVEN times as much as the consensus. The actual figure showed a 44K increase in hiring, outpacing expectations of a 6.4K rise. With that, the jobless rate was able to hold steady at 5.2% instead of increasing to 5.3%.
Better than expected new loans and money supply data from China, Australia’s number one trading partner, also helped lift the Aussie’s spirits yesterday. New loans came in at more than 1 trillion USD, topping estimates of a 799 billion USD increase for March. Meanwhile, money supply printed a 13.4% jump, slightly higher than the projected 13.1% growth.
Today, the Aussie is on its toes awaiting the release of the Chinese GDP figure for the first quarter of this year. Analysts are foreseeing an 8.4% reading, slightly lower than the 8.9% growth seen during the last quarter of 2011. Better than expected figures could give the Australian dollar another strong boost while weaker than expected data could force it to return some of its recent gains. Bear in mind that we’ve been seeing impressive figures from China lately and we might just see another stellar figure during their GDP release at 2:00 am GMT today.
Just like the rest of comdolls, the bulls chilled out on the Australian dollar, as a wave of risk aversion wiped out any optimism in the markets. AUD/USD came crashing down from its opening of 1.0434 to finish at 1.0368, marking a 66-pip loss on the day.
Will the bad vibes continue today? Nothing coming out from the Land Down Under today, but make sure you check out my U.S. commentary as we have some hard hitting data coming our way during the New York session.
Also, watch out tomorrow at 1:30 am GMT, as the minutes of the latest RBA meeting will be made available. The minutes will reveal to us what was discussed at the last monetary policy meeting and could reveal which way the RBA is leaning in terms of setting interest rates. This could prove to provide some liquidity in the markets, so make sure you keep those stop losses in check!
Uh oh, the Aussie is off to a bad start! It got sold off early on in the Tokyo session yesterday, reaching a low of 1.0311 against the dollar, before rallying. Sadly, the Aussie bulls didn’t hustle their muscle enough to end the day with a win. AUD/USD closed 22 pips shy from its opening price at 1.0356.
The market’s still-jittery sentiment might have caused the Aussie’s slide. And you know what, some naysayers think that the comdoll still has more room to trade even lower today!
Earlier, the minutes of the RBA’s March 6 monetary policy meeting showed that the central bank is still looking to cut rates in its upcoming meeting on May 1. Yikes!
Central bankers from the Land Down Under cite the economy’s slower-than-expected growth for the possible move. However, if you’re bullish for the Aussie, you should know that not all hope is lost. The minutes also show that policymakers are also worried about inflation. If the CPI report next week tops expectations, we may just see the RBA sit on its hands for another month.
Anyway, we don’t have any other top-tier data scheduled from Australia today. So you may want to gauge market sentiment first before you decide to trade the Aussie. Remember that it usually rallies when risk appetite picks up.
Even though the RBA hinted at a possible rate cut in its monetary policy meeting minutes, the Aussie managed to keep its head above water as risk appetite buoyed it to safety. AUD/USD recovered from its intraday low of 1.0304 to end the day at 1.0396, up 40 pips on the day.
As I had mentioned yesterday, the RBA’s latest meeting had a dovish tone to it as it seems policymakers are considering cutting interest rates in its next rate statement. However, it seems that they’re waiting for inflation to ease and give the go signal before they commit to easing their policy.
For a while, this took its toll on the Aussie, leading the currency to test the previous day’s low against the dollar. But with the markets kicking up their risk taking a notch (thanks to positive developments in the euro zone), the Aussie was able to stage a solid intraday reversal.
In other news, the MI leading index, which was released a couple hours ago, declined as its reading fell from 0.6% to 0.2%. This only tells us what we already know - that Australia’s economic performance hasn’t been impressive as the index remains below trend.
Since we won’t be getting any more data on our tables today, it’d be wise to keep track of risk sentiment. As we saw yesterday, risk sentiment can overcome economic data, so always keep it in your sights!
Just like its comdoll comrades, the Aussie gave up pips to the dollar in yesterday’s trading. AUD/USD traded lower after reaching an intraday high at 1.0416. By the day’s close, it settled at 1.0349, 47 pips below its opening price.
Disappointing economic reports as well as the market’s jittery sentiment didn’t bode well for the currency. The MI leading index for February showed that economic growth would come at a slower pace at 0.2% than the 0.7% rate that was predicted in January. On top of that, the NAB quarterly business confidence report also showed that businessmen think that economic conditions are deteriorating. It printed at -1 for the Q1 2012 offsetting its 1 reading for Q4 2011.
Our forex calendar doesn’t have any top-tier data from Australia today. However, we do have the results of the much-anticipated Spanish bond auction to be released sometime during the London session. Be sure you keep tabs on that as it could cause a lot of volatility on the charts!
AUD/USD traded in range between 1.0313 and 1.0381 yesterday, ultimately ending the day lower on the heels of weaker equities. The pair closed the day at 1.0336, down 13 pips from its opening price.
On the economic front, the NAB quarterly business confidence survey turned negative. It printed a reading of -1, down from the previous quarter’s 1. Then, earlier today, the report on import prices was released. It showed that prices declined 1.2% for the first quarter of the year, more than twice the forecast.
For today, Australia’s economic cupboard has nothing in it. This means that the Aussie will most likely mirror yesterday’s price action. Watch those previous day highs and lows, as they could very well hold!
Despite the lack of any hard data, Friday wasn’t a waste, as the Aussie rode the wave of risk appetite to edge higher. AUD/USD managed to post a 33-pip victory to finish at 1.0369. Will the Aussie continues its roll today?
Earlier today, producer price input data was released and came in surprisingly much lower-than-expected. Instead of hitting us up with a 0.5% increase in producer prices, the PPI report indicated that raw material costs dropped by 0.3% in the last quarter.
Why is this significant? Well, if producers are paying less for their raw materials, then it meets that inflation remains subdued (or in this case, negative). This means that the Reserve Bank of Australia now has more room to implement a rate cut should it see fit!
Tomorrow we should get a clearer picture of where inflation stands, as quarterly CPI data will be available at 1:30 am GMT. Should this report also come in lower-than-anticipated, it could trigger an Aussie sell-off early in the Tokyo session.
The combination of worse-than-expected economic data and bad news from the euro zone took a huge toll on the Aussie yesterday, pushing the currency lower against the safe haven Greenback. The Aussie closed the day at 1.0316, 54 pips lower from its opening price.
The producer price index that was published yesterday came in with a 0.3% decrease, opposite the 0.5% gain initially expected. Then, earlier today, the country’s consumer price index was significantly lower than forecast. Instead of showing a 0.7% inflation rate for the first quarter of 2012, it was only at 0.1%.
No other news reports are scheduled to come out from Australia today. Tomorrow will also be another uneventful day as Australian banks go on holiday in observance of Anzac Day.