AUD/USD dropped for a second day in a row yesterday after economic reports from Australia failed to ease concerns of an RBA rate cut next month. The pair dropped to an intraday low of 1.0247 before it leveled off to close 24 pips lower than its open price.
Last week the RBA signaled that it would be looking at inflation figures to determine if an interest rate cut is needed. And with Australia’s CPI clocking in at a measly 0.1% growth in the first quarter, investors all but priced in a possible rate cut in May.
And why not? Even the trimmed mean CPI which excludes volatile items disappointed expectations at a 0.3% growth against the previous quarter’s 0.6% rise.
No reports are scheduled for release today as Australia’s banks are closed for Anzac Day. Still, you shouldn’t let your guard down on your Aussie trades!
While Australians enjoyed their time off work in celebration of Anzac Day, Aussie bulls celebrated the dovish FOMC statement and rallied up the charts! AUD/USD pared the losses it scored on Tuesday as it closed 62 pips above its opening price at 1.0355.
Just like most of the other major currencies, the Aussie benefited from the Fed’s dovish remarks yesterday.
I’m not sure if the Aussie can extend its gains though, given that the Conference Board’s leading index for February printed flat earlier today. This is bad news for the currency as it could be an implication that the economy would grow slower in the coming months than previously estimated when the leading index for January printed at 1.1%.
But who knows, maybe risk appetite will pick up today and boost the Aussie. Be sure to gauge market sentiment, ayt!
The Aussie made headway on the charts yesterday, as the Greenback continued to weaken across the boards. Even though it didn’t have any solid reports to back its rally, AUD/USD was able to extend its climb by another 37 pips, ending the day at 1.0392.
As I mentioned yesterday, the CB leading index did little to spur demand for the Aussie as it printed flat for February. However, the Aussie and its fellow comdolls continued to find support from remaining bearishness for the Greenback, as traders continued to sell off the safe haven currency in the wake of the FOMC statement.
Unfortunately, we don’t have any reports on tap from Australia today, so in the meantime, I suggest y’all track general market sentiment. If the markets continue avoiding the Greenback, it could result in a third straight victory for the Aussie, so stay on your toes, fellas!
You win some, you lose some. The Australian dollar had a mixed performance on Friday as it managed to outpace the U.S. dollar but lost ground to the Japanese yen. AUD/USD rallied above the 1.0450 mark and closed at 1.0461 while AUD/JPY dipped to a low of 83.56 before landing at 84.08.
The lack of economic data from Australia was probably one of the reasons that could explain the Aussie’s mixed performance towards the end of the week. Poor U.S. GDP figures, which increased the odds of further easing from the Fed, triggered a U.S. dollar selloff and propped AUD/USD up. Meanwhile, the BOJ’s decision to increase asset purchases spurred extra volatility in AUD/JPY but left the Japanese yen with a slight advantage.
This week, the economic calendar is peppered with several reports that could have a high impact on Aussie pairs. The biggest one of them all is the RBA interest rate decision scheduled tomorrow 5:30 am GMT. Recall that, based on the minutes of their previous policy meeting, the RBA was simply waiting for the quarterly inflation report to help them decide whether there’s room for more easing or not. Better mark your calendars for the May RBA decision because word on the street is that the central bank could cut rates from 4.00% to 4.25% as Australia printed a weaker than expected CPI reading recently.
Also due this week is China’s manufacturing PMI for April, which could show a tiny improvement from 53.1 to 53.6. If the actual figure meets or beats expectations, it could be positive for the Australian economy and the Aussie as China is Australia’s number one trade partner. Keep an eye out for the actual release tomorrow 2:00 am GMT.
By Wednesday, China will release the HSBC manufacturing PMI, which was initially reported at 49.1 last week. The final version, which is due 3:30 am GMT on Wednesday, could also move the Australian dollar depending on whether there are upward or downward revisions.
For today, only a couple of medium-tier reports due. These are the HIA new home sales report and data on private sector credit. Recall that new home sales climbed by 3.0% in March and might post another increase for April. Meanwhile, private sector credit which was up by 0.4% in March and is expecting a 0.3% uptick for April. Higher than expected results could give another boost for the Aussie pairs so make sure you stay on your toes!
After three consecutive days of winning, risk aversion finally took hold of the markets which pushed the Aussie lower. The currency received a huge blow and took losses against both the safe haven Greenback and the low-yielding yen.
Economic data released from Australia yesterday was mixed. The HIA New Home Sales showed a 9.4% decline while the report on Private Sector Credit revealed a 0.4% increase. Then, earlier today, the House Price Index failed to meet forecast. It printed a 1.1% decline, much worse than the 0.4% decrease initially anticipated.
Today will be a huge day for the Aussie as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its decision on interest rates later at 4:30 am GMT. The market generally expects the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points. If you’re interested in trading the upcoming statement, just head over to Forex Gump’s blog. In his latest posts, he outlines three potential scenarios of the statement!
And the RBA bites the bullet! A larger than expected rate cut of 0.5% from the Australian central bank pushed the Aussie down under, with AUD/USD crashing below the 1.0400 handle and closing at 1.0333. AUD/JPY also chalked up a loss as it slipped below the 83.00 mark.
The RBA slashed interest rates by 0.5% instead of the projected 0.25% cut during their monetary policy decision yesterday in hopes of giving the Australian economy a boost. As they mentioned in their previous monetary policy meeting, they would first check if inflationary conditions are weak enough to warrant a rate cut before pulling the trigger. As Forex Gump discussed in his recent article about the different scenarios for the RBA statement, a 0.5% cut was indeed a possibility and that’s exactly what we saw!
It didn’t help AUD/USD’s case that U.S. economic reports came in better than expected yesterday, lifting the U.S. dollar against its counterparts.
For today, the impact of the recent RBA rate cut could continue to weigh on the Australian dollar unless risk appetite picks up and keeps Aussie pairs afloat. There are no economic reports due from the Land Down Under as traders are awaiting the accompanying statement from the RBA due on Friday.
No reports? No movement! AUD/USD only moved 1 pip down yesterday as Australia didn’t publish any economic reports. After reaching an intraday high of 1.0356 and hitting a low of 1.0284, the pair eventually settled at 1.0331.
We might not have gotten much action yesterday, but today’s a different story! Already, the Aussie is selling off! The weak AIG services index reading might have had a hand in the market’s bearish sentiment for the Aussie as it fell from 47.0 to 39.6, indicating a major slump in the services sector. The index is now at its lowest level in 3 years as the industry saw weak sales and a big decrease in new orders.
It looks as though we’ll have to chew on this bit of info for a while since Australia won’t be publishing any reports until the RBA monetary policy statement tomorrow. That being the case, the Aussie may just continue sliding down the charts as bearish momentum carries it lower. Nevertheless, it would be wise to keep an eye on risk sentiment, as it could shift and push the Aussie in another direction.
D’oh! Looks like the odds weren’t in the Aussie’s favor yesterday as AUD/USD plunged by another 71 pips to end the day at 1.0260. Okay, what happened now?
Apparently, the AIG services index, the only report released from Australia yesterday, slumped to 39.6 in April, which is not only a big setback from its 47.0 reading in March, but is also the lowest reading in three years. AIGroup cited low orders and low sales across the sector as the biggest factors of the decline.
Of course, it didn’t help that commodity prices weren’t able to recover from their intraweek lows. Gold prices stayed near its 1-week lows thanks to traders staying out of the markets before the big NFP report is released.
The RBA statement at 2:00 am GMT is scheduled for release in Australia today, so you better buckle up for more movement in AUD pairs! Recall that the RBA surprisingly cut its rates by 0.50% early this week, so its statement today could drag the Aussie lower.
Jot Friday down as another negative day for the Aussie, folks! With the RBA’s dovish monetary policy statement pinning AUD/USD to the ground (and risk aversion dragging it even lower!), the pair really had no chance of lifting off! At the end of the New York session, it closed at 1.0185, down 75 pips on the day.
The RBA published its monetary policy statement last Friday, and it had very few nice things to say about the economy. Though it noted growth in mining and the services industry, it showed that the manufacturing, hospitality, and retail sectors are lagging behind and are keeping the job market from posting solid gains.
The central bank also downgraded its growth forecast for the year. From its February estimate of 3.5%, it revised its growth forecast to just 3% for 2012. Meanwhile, its outlook for exports has deteriorated as well, in light of the recent back-to-back trade deficits recorded in metal and coal exports. Yeouch!
Luckily, today’s reports were much more upbeat. Building approvals exceeded expectations by printing a 7.4% rise instead of just 3.2%. Retail sales also came in better than expected as it posted a growth of 0.9%, which is triple the forecasted figure. But so far, the bears remain in control of the Aussie as risk sentiment still seems to be acting in favor of sellers.
Looking ahead, we’ll have more chances to trade the news this week, starting with Australia’s trade balance report and annual budget release tomorrow. Then on Thursday, we’ll pick up with critical employment data. But until these reports come out, I suggest y’all keep an eye on risk sentiment, as it will probably remain the key driver behind Aussie price action. Good luck and happy pipping, fellas!
Close weekend gap? BAM! Done! Thanks to a slight improvement in risk appetite, the Aussie was able to recuperate its earlier losses and end the day on a winning note. After trading as low as 1.0110, AUD/USD recovered to close at 1.0202, up 50 pips from its opening price.
Looks like the Aussie may be off to another bad start today, as recently released trade balance figures came in at worse-than-expected. Australia posted a trade deficit of 1.59 billion AUD, after it was projected to come in at just 1.38 billion AUD.
This also marks the third consecutive month that Australia has posted a trade deficit. Could the rise of the Aussie earlier this year be having a detrimental effect on trade? Take note that having a stronger currency makes exports relatively more expensive, which hurts trade.
Later today at 9:30 am GMT, the Australian government’s annual budget plan will be released. Now, Australia isn’t one of those nations that have massive debt, so I’m not quite sure if this will prove to be a major market mover.
The Aussie had a bad day yesterday as it lost ground against the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen. AUD/USD closed at 1.0112 while AUD/JPY ended the day at 80.74. Will it be able to recover today?
Australia reported that its trade deficit more than doubled from 0.75 billion AUD in February to 1.59 billion AUD in March, its worst reading in years. Components of the report revealed that the reason why imports outpaced exports by so much was that Chinese demand for Australian commodities slumped during the period. It didn’t help that poor weather conditions also dampened demand for Australia’s exports.
There aren’t any economic reports on Australia’s schedule for today which means that the Aussie pairs could continue to get bogged down by the downbeat trade balance from the Land Down Under. Then again, if risk appetite picks up, the Aussie could have a chance to bounce back on its feet so stay tuned!
No need to change your glasses mate! What you’re seeing is fo’ rizzle! The Aussie just set a new 2012 low at 1.0020! Will the Aussie’s troubles continue or will we see a comeback soon?
So far, so good today as employment data came in waxing hot! 15,500 jobs were added to the economy last month, after it was projected that 4,800 jobs would be lost. Moreover, the unemployment rate dropped from 5.3% to just 4.9%! Boo yea baby!
The question is whether this can be sustained or not. Take note that Chinese trade balance figures are due any time now. Word on the street is that China posted a trade surplus of 10.0 billion yuan, which would be nearly double the previous month’s 5.4 billion yuan suplus. If the report comes in much higher than that, it may boost risk appetite, allowing the Aussie to recuperate its recent losses!
It looks like the Aussie held on to its gains like it was holding on for dear life yesterday. AUD/USD traded higher and reached an intraday of 1.0144 following the better-than-expected jobs report from Australia. However, it pared some of its gains during the New York session and closed the day at 1.0090, just 30 pips above its opening price.
As I said yesterday, the jobs report for April showed that the economy added 15,500 jobs and the unemployment rate dropped from 5.2% to 4.9%. Digging deeper into the data I found out that most of the jobs generated came from the part-time sector. Although it’s not as good as seeing a huge uptick in full-time jobs, it’s still pretty impressive. Heck, it was the first time since June 2011 that the unemployment rate dropped below 5%!
Of course, it also helped the Aussie that risk aversion somehow eased as traders took a break from all that worrying about Greece.
Today, we don’t have any economic data on tap from Australia. However, the roster of economic reports from China could affect market sentiment and consequently determine the Aussie’s price action. Make sure you stay tuned to them!
Welcome to bear country! Once again, AUD/USD was the scene of another sell-off as weak data from China sapped demand for the high-yielding Aussie. The pair edged 68 pips closer to parity as it greeted the weekend at 1.0031.
That China printed a whole bunch of red reports last Friday didn’t help the Aussie pull off a much-needed reversal. Instead, it led AUD/USD to forge a new low!
Why, you ask? As the top destination for Australian goods, China tends to have a very strong impact on one of Australia’s most critical sectors - its export industry. So weak Chinese data usually gets Australia jittery and worried over its own exports.
It seems that the market isn’t done selling, either! The pair is still falling and is inching closer and closer to parity. If the upcoming home loans report (due at 1:30 am GMT) prints a highly negative figure, we could just see AUD/USD hit 1.0000 within the Tokyo session.
If you’re looking for Australian reports to trade this week, your best bet will probably be the RBA monetary policy minutes, due tomorrow at 1:30 am GMT. If the minutes show that policymakers are highly dovish, the Aussie could be in for more losses!
How low can you go, Aussie? AUD/USD dropped like it was hot in yesterday’s trading, all the way down to its 5-month low at .9958. By the end of the day, the pair was down 78 pips at .9966.
By now, you probably know that risk aversion caused the Aussie’s demise on the charts yesterday. Concerns about a Grexit being inevitable dominated market headlines, sparked risk aversion, and sent higher-yielding currencies lower.
If risk aversion continues to dictate market sentiment today, we could see the Aussie extend its gains especially since it doesn’t look like the Aussie will get any support from the RBA minutes.
Released earlier, the minutes of the most recent RBA meeting (when the central bank cut rates by 50 basis points) didn’t pose any surprise. As expected, policymakers lowered their growth and inflation forecasts for Australia. The report also cited that Europe’s debt crisis could continue to escalate.
Then again, that’s just my two cents. Pay attention to reports that could potentially reverse market sentiment and we may just see the Aussie pare some of its losses. But be careful, ayt?
AUD/USD continued to sink yesterday as risk aversion remained strong. The possibility of Greece exiting the euro zone, and the resulting bank run, spooked investors and led them to seek the safety of the Greenback. AUD/USD closed the day at .9929, 35 pips lower from its opening price during the Asian session.
Economic data from Australia was nonexistent yesterday but a few hours ago, the Westpac consumer sentiment survey was released. It came at 0.8%, which is a very welcome improvement from the previous month’s -1.6%.
Australia’s economic cupboard today is empty, so expect the Aussie to get its price action cues from events happening in other major economies. Also pay attention to market sentiment. If traders and investors continue to be risk averse, we could see the Aussie take receive another bloody beating today.
With wave upon wave of risk aversion hitting the markets, the Aussie failed to make any ground yesterday. AUD/USD dropped from its opening price of .9929 to finish 23 pips lower at .9903. When will the Aussie’s misery come to an end?
Earlier today, the MI inflation expectations reports indicated that inflation expectations have tapered down from 3.3% to 3.1%. If you ask me, this is pretty significant. Take note, the RBA just cut rates by 50 basis points earlier this month. Lower inflation expectations would only give the central bank more room for further rate cuts down the line. And we all know what rate cuts mean – a weaker Aussie!
Nothing else heading our way for the rest of the week, so we can probably expect the Aussie to trade to the beat of risk sentiment. Make sure you stay on top of your fundamentals game by checking in regularly! Good luck, mate!
Due to the absence of tier 1 market-moving data from Australia yesterday, AUD/USD was unable to make significant moves yesterday. It mainly traded in a range and closed the day exactly where it opened at 1.0260.
Australia’s economic cupboard will be empty again today, so don’t expect the Aussie to exhibit any major moves again. However, do watch out for the G8 meetings that will take place later today. Normally, it doesn’t have a strong impact on the foreign exchange market, but in the off-chance that it does, you better be prepared! If Greece’s political situation is talked about, we could see another round of risk aversion!
Looks like the Aussie bulls didn’t get the memo on the profit-taking and the risk rally party last Friday! While low-yielding currencies took hits against the higher-yielding ones, AUD/USD still managed to clock in a 90-pip loss to .9816. What the heck happened?!
It seems that the Aussie bears aren’t done with their party just yet. While short squeezes and profit-taking dominated trading last Friday, the possibility of a Grexit and debt contagion in the euro zone continued to weigh on comdolls like the Aussie. Of course, it didn’t help that there were barely any major economic reports released from the major economies!
The Land Down Under won’t be seeing any economic action until Wednesday when the CB leading index is released at 12:00 am GMT, which will be closely followed by the MI leading index at 12:30 am GMT. Will these leading indices fuel speculations of another RBA rate cut? Don’t even think of missing these reports!
Aaah, there’s nothin’ like good ol’ risk appetite to get traders to drool over the Aussie like ice cold beer on a hot summer day. AUD/USD rallied yesterday after opening at .9837 and ended the day up at .9916.
The lack of updates from the euro zone allowed higher-yielding currencies to take a break from the bears advances as risk appetite picked up. Be careful though! Some market junkies warn that risk aversion could soon come back to haunt the markets and send the Aussie lower on the charts.
With that said, make sure you’re on your toes for updates from the euro zone. Peace out y’all!