Everyone give a round of applause for yesterday’s big winner, the champion from Down Under, the Australian dollar! Despite the RBA hitting the markets with a rate cut, the Aussie rallied hard in yesterday’s trading action, rising a solid 55 pips to finish at 1.0473.
It seems as traders completely shrugged off the RBA 0.25% rate cut, as they continuously bought up the Aussie yesterday. A little surprising if you ask me, as the RBA expressed some concern about the state of the euro zone debt crisis and the U.S. fiscal cliff, while also acknowledging the need to strengthen certain areas of the domestic economy.
I guess the rate cut was already priced in and traders were simply waiting for more explicit hints of when the RBA will cut again. Of course, the central bank didn’t oblige, and instead said that it would raise rates if it was necessary next year.
Earlier today, quarterly GDP figures were made available, and unfortunately, came in slightly worse than expected. The Australian economy grew by 0.5% last quarter, missing the 0.6% forecast, and coming in slightly below the 0.6% figure we saw the quarter before. Nevertheless, the report doesn’t seem to have had much effect on Aussie trading, as AUD/USD hasn’t shot off for any new highs or lows.
No hard data coming up for the rest of the day, but if you’re planning to play AUD/USD, make sure you hit up my U.S. commentary to find out what lies ahead during the New York session!
No thanks to the weaker-than-expected Australian GDP report, AUD/USD turned lower yesterday. The pair suffered a minor defeat as it fell to 1.0461 from its opening price at 1.0473.
As I mentioned yesterday, the country’s GDP report for Q3 2012 failed to meet expectations. It showed that the economy grew only 0.5% and not 0.6% as initially predicted. It was also lower than the 0.6% experienced in Q2 2012.
Earlier today, however, the Aussie got a little bit of reprieve from the employment report. Australia’s employment data for the month of November revealed that 13,900 people (net) were added to the workforce and that the unemployment rate fell to 5.2%. The market had projected that only 200 people (net) would be added and that the unemployment rate would rise to 5.5% from 5.4%.
No major data left on Australia’s economic calendar but I think we’ll still see a lot of volatility from the Aussie. After all, both the BOE and the ECB are scheduled to announced their respective decisions on monetary policy later today.
Surf’s up, dudes! The Aussie bulls caught another wave up the charts yesterday after Australia’s employment numbers beat expectations. AUD/USD rocketed above the 1.0500 area before it capped the day with an 11-pip gain.
Just when we thought that the RBA had set the tone for the Aussie’s price action early this week, Australia’s employment numbers came in stronger-than-expected. Hiring in the Land Down Under increased by 13,900 in November while the jobless rate fell from 5.4% to 5.2%.
The figures aren’t all rainbows and unicorns though. A closer look at the report reveals that it was part-time hiring that boosted the numbers instead of full-time activity. In fact, full-time hiring even dropped by 4,200 last month! Not only that, but it also looks like the drop in unemployment rate is largely due to the drop in labor participation rate brought about by the weakening mining industry. Tsk tsk.
So enjoy the rally while it lasts, folks. Australia trade figures just published a 2.09 billion trade deficit in October, which is deeper than the 1.42 billion AUD deficit in September. Will the U.S. NFP report at 2:30 am GMT save the day for the high-yielding currencies?
AUD/USD was still unable to break above the 1.0500 handle last Friday, despite the improvement in risk appetite. Instead, the pair consolidated a few pips below that major psychological level and ended the week at 1.0487.
Weaker than expected Chinese inflation figures forced AUD/USD to gap down over the weekend as China’s CPI came in at 2.0%, below the forecast of a 2.1% increase in price levels. Their PPI showed a larger than expected decline of 2.2% compared to the consensus at -2.0%. Fixed asset investment also came in worse than expected at 20.7%, failing to meet expectations of a 21.0% increase. Industrial production and retail sales, on the other hand, came in stronger than expected for November.
There are no reports due from Australia today but China is set to release its trade balance report any time within the day and this report could be positive for the Aussie if its better than expected.
For the rest of the week, watch out for medium-tier reports from the Land Down Under, such as NAB business confidence and Westpac consumer sentiment. Stay on your toes!
The Aussie bulls and bears took a chill pill yesterday as AUD/USD barely moved from its open price. It tipped an intraday high of 1.0507 and dropped to as low as 1.0486, but by the end of the day the comdoll only slipped 3 pips lower than its open price.
Concerns on the Greenback and the continuation of the Fed’s QE program should’ve boosted the Aussie above its 1.0500 resistance. Unfortunately, Australia also printed a weak home loans report.
Home loans only grew by 0.1% in October, which is way less than the 3.1% growth that many were expecting. What’s more, China’s trade balance data also disappointed investors’ estimates! Chinese trade came in at 19.6 billion CNY in November after printing at 32.0 billion CNY in October. Apparently, exports numbers aren’t as rosy as investors had estimated.
Only Australia’s NAB business confidence report is due today. The data fell to a reading of -9 in November, a 44-month low, after showing a -1 reading in October. Talk about having a bad week! Will the Aussie bulls step up their game today or will the bears take over the charts?
Way to go, little guy! The Aussie took advantage of dollar weakness yesterday as AUD/USD rallied above the 1.0500 handle and closed at 1.0521. AUD/JPY had its share of gains as it closed 46 pips up from its 83.33 open price.
Australia’s NAB business confidence reflected a downturn in sentiment for November as the reading fell from -1 to -9, its 44-month low. This reveals that businessmen think that conditions are getting worse in the Land Down Under, yet the Aussie barely reacted to this report.
This is probably because traders are pricing in their expectations for today’s FOMC statement, which will take place at 6:30 pm GMT. If you’re planning to trade AUD/USD or already have a trade open, make sure you read Forex Gump’s FOMC preview so you know what to expect during the event!
Let’s give a round of applause for the Aussie, please! Thanks to the dovish FOMC statement, the Aussie was able to beat the safe haven Greenback to a pulp yesterday. AUD/USD, which began the Asian trading session at 1.0521, finished the day strongly at 1.0565.
Although no data was released in Australia yesterday, the Aussie was still able to rally on the heels of the FOMC statement. The FOMC statement revealed that the Fed’s quantitative easing program would be expanded again as Operation Twist comes to an end. The program will be expanded by another 45 billion USD, putting the total monthly purchases of the Fed at 85 billion USD.
Earlier today, the MI Inflation Expectations report and New Motor Vehicles report was released. The former showed a 1.8% increase while the latter reported a flat reading.
No data left on Australia’s economic calendar so expect the Aussie to be mainly driven by market sentiment. If positive data comes out of other major economies, we could see another risk rally that’s supportive of the Aussie.
The Aussie sank like a rock in yesterday’s trading session as “fiscal cliff” talks dampened market sentiment. AUD/USD, which began the day at 1.0565, found itself sitting at 1.0515 by the end of the U.S. trading session.
It seems that the Aussie will be hard-pressed to break higher. The market has managed to push AUD/USD above 1.0500 two times before, but it was unable to maintain it.
No major data today so I suspect we’ll see very little action from the Aussie today. Do note, however, that it is a Friday, which means there’s a chance that we could see the Aussie continue to retrace as traders close their long position before the weekend.
And the tug-o-war over the Aussie continues! This time, buyers were able to snatch control over AUD/USD as they boosted the pair up 48 pips to 1.0562, practically completely erasing Thursday’s losses altogether. Who will command AUD/USD this week?
The return of risk appetite worked like a turbo boost for the Aussie, fueling it to a strong rally right before the weekend. Apparently, the U.S. CPI data that was released last Friday worked against the Greenback as it affirmed the Fed’s easy stance.
Up ahead, we only have a minor report coming our way today. At 11:00 pm GMT, the CB leading index will be available. If it prints a better results than last month’s reading of -0.3%, it could send the Aussie off to a strong start.
Then early tomorrow morning, we’ll take a look at the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes, which could give us a sneak peek into what the central bank plans to do next year.
Ho-hum. The lack of economic reports and trading volume inspired directionless trading for AUD/USD yesterday. The pair dipped to a low of 1.0526 and reached a high of 1.0574 before it capped the day 8 pips lower than its open price.
Even the CB leading index and the RBA minutes release a couple of heartbeats ago failed to rock the Aussie’s price action. The leading index showed a 0.2% growth in October after declining for three consecutive months. Meanwhile, the RBA minutes reflected the central bank’s concern over the slowdown in the mining industry as well as the lackluster jobs market, which probably inspired the 25 bps interest rate cut for December.
No other report is scheduled for release today, so you might want to keep an eye out for any report from the euro region and the U.S. that might affect risk sentiment. I hear that the U.K. is about to print its inflation numbers today. Will the report set the tone for today’s trading?
This is starting to get boring yo! For the second day in a row, AUD/USD traded very conservatively, not drifting more than 30 pips from its open price. Still, the day belonged to the bears as they managed to chalk up another victory, taking the pair down 17 pips to 1.0529.
Oddly enough, the markets haven’t been showing much love for the Aussie even though yesterday’s RBA meeting minutes showed that the central bank almost DIDN’T cut rates earlier this month. Apparently, they wanted to see the latest GDP and job market stats before making the call.
Still, it seems as though the markets are expecting the RBA to keep slashing rates. Word on the street is that they might do it again in February 2013! This, along with some growth concerns from Australia’s largest trading partner (China), could be the reason why the Aussie hasn’t been so popular in the FX hood as of late.
Nothing on tap from Australia today, so y’all should keep track of risk sentiment and commodities in the meantime, ya dig?!
Wiped out, baby! After chillin’ above the 1.0500 handle, AUD/USD bulls got blinded by a huge swell and soon found themselves swept back to shore! AUD/USD dropped 37 pips to finish the day at 1.0493.
Nothing lined up for the rest of the week, but that doesn’t mean you can just take an early Christmas vacation! We’ve still got tons of reports lined up from other countries, so make sure y’all read up as you never know what might rock the markets!
The Aussie kept going down under yesterday as AUD/USD marked its fourth consecutive day in the red. The pair opened at 1.0493 then closed at 1.0485 as risk aversion gripped the markets yesterday.
Australia didn’t release any economic data yesterday, leaving the Aussie vulnerable to risk sentiment. Unfortunately for the higher-yielding commodity currency, the lack of progress in U.S. Fiscal Cliff negotiations kept risk-taking at bay, especially since the deadline was fast approaching.
There are no reports due from the Land Down Under today, which means that Aussie pairs could be swayed by risk sentiment once more. Stay on your toes!
Chillin’ like a villain, baby! That’s the best way to describe Aussie trading over the past week, as AUD/USD stuck within a rising channel. With the holidays now done and over with, what could be in store for us this week?
Nothing lined up on the economic swell, but keep in mind that the U.S. government will be making some hard decisions about what to do about the fiscal cliff. This could be the major driving force in the markets this week, so make sure you stop by my U.S. commentary for the latest updates on this major economic issue.
Talk about starting the year right! The Aussie soared against the dollar in the first trading day of the year. AUD/USD finished the day at 1.0488, up from its opening price of 1.0396.
There weren’t any economic reports released from Australia. However, positive vibes following the U.S. fiscal deal were enough to get the Aussie some lovin’ from the markets. I’m also guessing that positive data released from China over the holidays also boosted the comdoll.
Yesterday might have been the first time for most traders to price in the better-than-expected HSBC manufacturing PMI from the Asian economy. Just before 2012 came to an end, the report printed at 51.5 and topped the market’s 50.9 forecast.
Keep in mind that China is Australia’s biggest trading partner and so, positive news from China was also positive for the Aussie.
Our forex calendar is once again blank for data from The Land Down Under today. This probably means that we’ll see the comdoll beat to the tune of market sentiment. Good luck! Remember that risk appetite is usually bullish for the Aussie.
As the popular adage goes, “You win some, you lose some.” Unfortunately, the Australian dollar experienced the latter yesterday as it gave up a bit of ground to the safe haven U.S. dollar. AUD/USD, which began the day at 1.0488, closed the U.S. trading session at 1.0477.
The pair lost mainly due to risk aversion and the surprising FOMC meeting minutes. The minutes showed that there were actually some members of the FOMC that dissented to further easing. These members said that they wanted the bank to stop buying bonds before 2013 ends.
Australlia’s economic cupboard is completely devoid. What this means is that market sentiment as well as the upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls will determine whether AUD/USD will rise or fall today.
The Aussie was the outcast among the comdolls in Friday’s trading. Unlike the Kiwi and the Loonie, the currency failed to end the day with a win against the dollar. It did manage to stage a stellar comeback though! AUD/USD hit a low at 1.0394 before rallying to its close at 1.0475, 2 pips below its opening price.
The AIG services index for December might help explain why the currency wasn’t able to hustle enough muscle despite the pick up in risk appetite following the positive NFP report. It showed that the services sector contracted further in December, printing at 43.2 following its 47.1 reading in November.
I wonder if the trade balance report, due at 12:30 am GMT tomorrow, would spell the same fate for the Aussie. It is expected to show that imports outpaced exports by 2.3 billion AUD in November.
A worse-than-expected reading could send the pair lower while a positive one could allow the Aussie to rally. If you plan on trading the currency, stay up a little and make sure you don’t miss it, ayt? Peace!
The Aussie showed everyone who is the boss yesterday as it rallied versus the safe haven dollar. AUD/USD, which began the day at 1.0478, found itself sitting at 1.0495 by the end of the U.S. trading session.
Earlier today, Australia’s trade balance for the month of November was released. It showed that the country’s deficit has fallen to 2.64 billion AUD from October’s 2.44 billion AUD. The forecast was for the deficit to narrow to 2.21 billion AUD. Needless to say, the figure disappointed market participants and resulted in a minor sell-off.
The next upcoming major economic report is Australia’s retail sales report. It’s going to publish tonight at 12:30 am GMT and it’s projected to show a 0.3% gain. Last month, the retail sales report printed a 0.0% reading.
Chillin’ like a villain, that’s what AUD/USD’s doing right now! With the markets in snooze-mode right now, AUD/USD formed a perfect doji yesterday on the daily chart, finishing at 1.0495.
Earlier today, retail sales figures were released and came out worse-than-expected. While early estimates were predicting an increase in sales of 0.3% last month, we actually saw a slight 0.1% decline. This was a little surprising, as one would expect sales to rise during the holiday season.
Nothing lined up for the rest of the day, but make sure you tune in tomorrow at 12:30 am GMT. Australian building approvals will be due at 12:30 am GMT, with expectations being that approval rose by 4.0% over the past month. Should this report come in much higher than expected, it could give the Aussie the boost it needs to rally up the charts.
Unlike the European currencies, the Australian dollar managed to hold its ground versus the safe haven U.S. dollar yesterday. After opening the Asian trading session at 1.0495, AUD/USD convincingly broke through the 1.0500 major psychological handle to close the day at 1.0509.
The Australian dollar’s gains came despite a very weak retail sales report. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics, consumer activity surprisingly decline in December as retail sales fell 0.1%. The market had projected retail sales to rise by 0.3%.
Earlier today, more disappointing data came out of Australia. Building consents was reported to have only increased 2.9%, and not 4.0% like initially expected. I guess the silver lining there is that it’s a welcome improvement from the previous month’s 5.9% decline.
No major data left on Australia’s forex cupboard today, so market sentiment will probably be the primary driver behind the Aussie’s price action. Also pay attention to the upcoming interest rate decisions from the ECB and the BOE.