Wham, bam, thank your Mr. China-man! Thanks to some positive data out of China, the Aussie staged a decent rally in yesterday’s trading sessions. AUD/USD rose 90 pips to close just a shade under the 1.0600 mark.
Chinese trade balance numbers rang in at an impressive 31.6 billion CNY yesterday, which was more than 50% greater than the projected 20.1 billion CNY figure. The sharp rise was supposed by a 14.1% uptick in export, indicating that Chinese demand may be back on the rise. Naturally, this boded well for the Australian dollar, as China is Australia’s largest trade partner.
No other reports due for today, but keep an eye out on that 1.0600 handle. This has been a major resistance point in the past, but if risk appetite is strong, we could see price just burst through it!
Fall back, soldier! Fall back! The Aussie retreated from the 1.0600 handle against the dollar last Friday as China reported higher inflationary pressures. AUD/USD finished the day 59 pips lower at 1.0536.
Word around the hood is that the higher-than-expected CPI report from China held the Aussie and Kiwi back on the charts. The figure for December printed at 2.5%, higher than the 2.3% market consensus. Remember that China is Australia’s largest trading partner. And so, the report was bad news for the Aussie because it could give the PBOC enough reason not to ease monetary policy which could help boost China’s growth.
This coming week, the Aussie’s fate will probably be dictated by reports from its counterparts (we’ve got a few top-tier ones from the U.S.) as well as Australia’s employment report on Thursday. So make sure you don’t miss them, ayt?
Surf’s up, mates! AUD/USD was able to recover some of its Friday losses yesterday despite the release of weak Australian data. The pair even tipped an intraday high of 1.0578 before it closed 24 pips higher than its open price.
Yesterday Australia’s home loans data came in at -0.5%, which is weaker than the forecasted 0.5% growth rate. Even the ANZ job ads data missed expectations when it showed that job ads had fallen by a faster rate of 3.8% versus last month’s -2.8%.
Good thing that risk appetite saved the comdolls’ day! Thanks to optimism from the euro region, the comdolls were able to hold their head above water against the Greenback yesterday.
But will the bulls’ luck continue today? No report is set to come out from Australia today, so y’all better watch out for any report from the euro and the U.S. region that might affect risk sentiment!
Uh oh, it looks like the Aussie is surfing on choppy waters lately! Just when it seemed that AUD/USD could keep heading down after dipping to a low of 1.0525, the pair pulled right back up and cruised higher to close at 1.0557. What’s the wave forecast for today?
Australia didn’t release any reports yesterday, leaving AUD/USD vulnerable to risk sentiment and U.S. data. Unfortunately for the Aussie, the U.S. retail sales figures beat expectations for December, resulting in a dollar rally. However, the U.S. also printed a weak Empire State manufacturing index later on and this forced the Greenback to return most of its recent gains against the Aussie.
Today, Australia reported an improvement its Westpac consumer sentiment figure. The report showed a 0.6% uptick for the current month, a healthy increase from the 4.1% dive seen last December. This reveals that consumers are feeling more financially confident these days and this upbeat sentiment could translate to stronger consumer spending down the line.
There are no other reports due from the Land Down Under for the rest of the day but do stay tuned for U.S. economic releases, which could have a huge impact on AUD/USD during the U.S. session. Good luck!
Hooray for the Aussie! It was one of the few higher-yielding currencies that managed to survive the run of risk aversion in the markets yesterday, with AUD/USD closing 12 pips up from its 1.0558 open price. Will it be able to hold on to its gains today?
Judging from the results of the freshly released Australian jobs report, it looks like the Aussie could have a tough time staying afloat for today. The employment change figure missed expectations as it showed a 5.5K drop in hiring for December instead of the estimated 2.3K rise in employment. Although the previous month’s figure enjoyed an upward revision from 13.9K to 17.1K, the jobless rate still rose from 5.3% to 5.4% in December.
There are no other reports on Australia’s agenda today, which suggests that these weaker than expected figures could weigh on the Aussie the entire day. Do keep an eye out for any potential changes in risk sentiment though!
Yowza! It looks like weaker than expected Australian jobs data weighed the Aussie down for almost the entire day as the pair dipped to the 1.0500 handle. After the Asian session though, AUD/USD was able to pull up a bit as the Greenback sold off on mixed U.S. reports.
Today, AUD/USD’s fate hinges on how the Chinese GDP fares for Q4 2012. Analysts are expecting the figure to climb from 7.4% to 7.8% during the period, reflecting a slight improvement in overall economic growth. Bear in mind though that a weaker than expected reading might mean that the world’s second largest economy is having trouble maintaining its strong economic performance, which could have negative effects on its number one trade partner, Australia.
Aside from that, keep an eye out for the release of U.S. consumer sentiment figure, which is expected to climb from 72.9 to 75.1 this month. A stronger than expected reading could spark risk appetite, which could be positive for AUD/USD. Good luck and good trading!
Things are really going under in the Land Down Under! For the second day in a row, the Aussie treaded into bear country as AUD/USD slipped 29 pips to end at 1.0511.
The Aussie pretty much just went with the flow last Friday, but unfortunately, it was swept away by risk aversion. High-yielding currencies lost ground to safe havens such as the dollar and the yen, as Chinese reports failed to lift the Aussie higher.
If you’re looking for Australian reports to trade, don’t hold your breath because you ain’t getting a taste until tomorrow’s CPI report (seen showing a 0.4% increase, down from 1.4%) comes out. For now, y’all know what to do - keep risk sentiment in check! Remember, the Aussie usually rallies in times of risk taking.
There weren’t any big market waves that affected the comdolls’ price action yesterday, so the Aussie was stuck in tight ranges against its counterparts. For example, AUD/USD’s range was only 11 pips before it capped the day 6 pips higher than its open price.
The Land Down Under isn’t scheduled to release any economic report today, so keep your eyes peeled on the potential market movers that are expected to rock the currencies’ price action. More specifically, pay attention to the BOJ’s monetary policy decision today as it could affect the overall appetite for high-yielding currencies like the comdolls.
Finally, some decent gains for the Aussie! AUD/USD posted its biggest rally in a week as it rose 50 pips to end at 1.0567.
Thanks to yesterday’s broad-based risk rally, the Aussie and its fellow comdolls were able to spend time at the top of the charts. But it seems the good vibes didn’t carry over to this morning as AUD/USD has already retraced half of its footsteps.
The release of lower-than-expected quarterly CPI figures (0.2% vs 0.4) early this morning snuffed the Aussie’s rally. The question now is, will this set the tone for the rest of the day? There’s only one way to find out! Keep your eyes lock on the Aussie, folks!
The Aussie bulls couldn’t sustain their momentum from the day before and ended up giving back some of their gains away yesterday, with AUD/USD closing 17 pips lower at 1.0550. What could be in store for us today?
As it turns out, the lower-than-expected CPI report did set the tone for the rest of the day, as the Australian dollar failed to get back on its feet.
We’ve got no hard data lined up for the rest of the week, so we can probably expect risk sentiment to be the major factor that will drive the Aussie today and tomorrow. Good luck trading, mates!
Crash and burn, baby! The Australian dollar just couldn’t keep its head above water yesterday as AUD/USD tumbled below the 1.0500 handle and closed at 1.0472. Fortunately, the Aussie was able to take advantage of yen weakness, pushing AUD/JPY above the 94.00 mark.
China reported a slight improvement in its manufacturing industry for this month as the HSBC flash manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.9 - its two-year high. On top of that, the previous month’s figure was revised up from 50.9 to 51.5, which means that the expansion in the industry was stronger than initially estimated. However, this wasn’t enough to lift the Aussie’s spirits in yesterday’s trading as the higher-yielding currency suffered from risk aversion.
There are no reports in Australia’s schedule for today, which suggests that the Aussie could continue to move to the tune of risk sentiment. Bear in mind that the U.S. is set to print its new home sales figure today and this could have an impact on AUD/USD during the New York session. Good luck!
Unfortunately for bulls, the Australian dollar continued to make its way lower last Friday. It suffered a bitter defeat to the safe haven U.S. dollar as it fell to 1.0413 from 1.0472.
The commodity-based currency was weighed heavily by speculations of a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). A few days prior, the Australian CPI showed that the year-on-year inflation rate in Q4 2012 was at 2.2% versus the 2.4% forecast. This gives the central bank room to slash rates by another 0.25% in its next meeting.
Only one red flag on Australia’s economic calendar this week. On Friday, at 12:30 am GMT, the country will publish its quarterly Producer Price Index. It’s expected to print a 0.3% increase in prices, which is half the increase seen the quarter prior. A rising PPI is usually interpreted as bullish for the domestic currency because of its relationship to inflation. Higher producer prices could translate to a higher inflation rate, which could stoke interest rate hike expectations.
Easy does it! That was the way of the Aussie in yesterday’s trading. AUD/USD finished the day higher by just a mere two pips higher at 1.0415 after hitting an intraday low at 1.0384. Talk about cutting it close!
There wasn’t any economic report released from Australia. Luckily, the Aussie benefited from the rally in U.S. equities. Whew!
Should risk appetite continue today, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Aussie extend its gains. So before you pull the trigger on those trades, be sure you get a good gauge of the market’s mood.
Aussie, Aussie, Aussie, Oi, Oi, Oi! The markets cheered the Australian dollar on yesterday, bringing AUD/USD up from its opening price of 1.0415 to 1.0464. Will they continue to support it today?
It seems like the early release of positive NAB business confidence data set the tone for the Aussie as it began its climb right from the get-go. Apparently, optimism in China was responsible for lifting business confidence, which caused the index to rise from -9 to 3.
Looking ahead, we don’t have any reports coming out of Australia today, but the U.S. has a handful of red flags on the calendar that y’all shouldn’t miss. Check out my USD commentary to get the full scoop!
Talk about a wipeout! The Aussie pared its gains from Wednesday when AUD/USD closed lower at 1.0412 after opening at 1.0464. Bummer, eh?
Without any economic data from Australia, the Aussie fell victim to market sentiment. Unfortunately for the comdoll, negative vibes filled the markets following the worse-than-expected U.S. GDP report and dovish FOMC.
Our forex calendar is blank for top-tier data for the Aussie. If you plan on trading the currency, be sure that you keep close tabs on market sentiment. Keep in mind that the Aussie usually does well when risk appetite is up.
You’ve got to hand it to the Aussie, it sure does know how to fight back! After its abysmal performance on Wednesday, the Aussie said to itself that enough was enough and flexed its muscles yesterday. It began the day at 1.0412 versus the dollar but managed to close 23 pips higher at 1.0435.
No major data was released yesterday, but earlier today, we saw the Australian PPI. It was mostly in line with expectations showed that producer prices grew 0.2% in December. The forecast was for them to rise 0.3%.
What’s going to happen to the Aussie today?
The release of the U.S. employment report will be the one determine that. It’s going to come out at 1:30 pm GMT and it is anticipated to show that 161,000 (net) jobs were added in December and that the unemployment rate remained steady at 7.8%. Given the risk environment, weak data from the U.S. will probably be beneficial for the Aussie.
The Aussie struggled at the end of the week, as Greenback strength and poor Chinese data weighed on AUD/USD. By the end of the day, the pair was trading just a shade above the 1.0400 handle, down about 20 pips from its opening price.
The Chinese manufacturing PMI came in slightly worse than expected, printing a reading of 50.1, after it was expected to rise to 51.1. Remember my young forex padawans, that China is the no.1 trading buddy of Australia. If Chinese manufacturing is struggling, Chinese companies will hold back their orders for raw materials from Australia. That’s why when last week’s report didn’t hit forecast, the Aussie struggled to gain any momentum.
We could see more Aussie weakness later today, as building permits just hit the airwaves and came in much weaker than anticipated. Instead of seeing a 1.1% uptick last month, we actually saw 4.4% less permits granted. This doesn’t bode well for the construction industry, as you first need permits before you can start putting up your crib.
Early tomorrow, we’ve got trade balance figures coming in at 12:30 am GMT. Expectations are that a deficit of 810 million will be posted.
Honestly though, I don’t expect it to alter price action too much, as most eyes will probably be on the RBA rate statement at 3:30 am GMT. I’ve been hearing some rumors that the RBA may actually consider cutting rates tomorrow, but who knows what might happen! Just be sure to tune in, as this will definitely set the tone for Aussie trading for the rest of the week!
If I were to sum up AUD/USD’s price action yesterday in one word, that word would be “ranging.” AUD/USD, after it had opened the day at 1.0423, moved within a very tight 35-pip horizontal channel yesterday. It found resistance at 1.0444 and support just above the 1.0400 handle at 1.0409.
Earlier today, AUD/USD received a small boost from better-than-expected economic reports. The country’s trade balance, for one, came in with only a 430 million AUD deficit. The forecast was for a 810 million AUD deficit. Australia’s quarterly House Price Index (HPI) also beat consensus. It reported that house prices jumped 1.6% in Q4 2012, more than 5 times the projected increase.
Today will be a big day for the Aussie as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is scheduled to announce its decision on interest rates. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.00%, so pay attention instead to the accompanying statement. If the central bank releases a pessimistic rhetoric, expect to see the Aussie sell-off.
No thanks to the RBA’s dovish rate statement, the Aussie missed the risk appetite rally yesterday and lost against the Greenback. AUD/USD only made it to a high of 1.0458 before it 19 pips lower than its open price.
As I mentioned yesterday, Australia’s trade balance and house price index came in better-than-expected. Unfortunately, the RBA cancelled the all the good vibes when it released its interest rate statement.
Though the central bank kept its rates at 3.00%, it also conveyed its worries on a possible peak in the mining industry as well as its lackluster local investment scene. It also hinted that the muted inflation gives them a lot of room for more easing. Uh-oh.
Let’s see if the Aussie can dig itself from the hole today. It’s already at a disadvantage thanks to a weak retail sales report early today, which contracted by 0.2% instead of rising by 0.3% as many had expected. November’s retail sales figure was also revised from -0.1% to -0.2%. But is it enough to trigger another rate cut from the RBA?
Only the AIG construction index at 11:30 pm GMT is scheduled in the Land Down Under today, so keep close tabs on any reports in the euro and U.S. region that might affect the comdolls price action.
The Aussie just couldn’t catch its breath! With the retail sales report from the Land Down Under disappointing forecasts, the comdoll spent another day in the bear lair. AUD/USD finished the day lower at 1.0316 after opening at 1.0415.
It was reported that consumer spending contracted by 0.2% when it was expected to grow by 0.3%.
But don’t fret! Earlier today, the employment reports from Australia printed job growth. Data shows that 10,400 jobs were added in January, topping expectations for a 5,800 increase. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate improved from 5.5% to 5.4%.
Perhaps the Aussie will be able to finish today’s trading in the green following the report. Be on your toes and watch out for 'em candlesticks!