Whew! Like drinking sweet lemonade under the scorching sun, the Loonie ended its drought and capped the day higher against the Greenback after losing ground for three consecutive days. USD/CAD ended up falling to an intraday low before it closed 27 pips lower than its open price at .9519.
Canada didn’t release any economic reports, so what’s up? Well, you might want to take a peek at the U.S. update that I wrote. As I have mentioned, dollar weakness across the board boosted the dollar counterparts, and the Loonie was no exception.
The economic boards in Canada are empty again today, but keep close tabs on the big FOMC announcement happening today at 4:30 pm GMT. If the Fed fails to soothe the dollar bears, then we just might see the Loonie rocket up the charts!
Geronimooo! Despite the lack of economic data to munch on, bears on USD/CAD still enjoyed the trip down from the pair’s intraday high of .9577 all the way to its closing price of .9503 yesterday.
Our economic calendar is still blank for reports from Canada today. And so, it may be best for you to keep tabs on what we have from the Loonie’s counterparts. From what I’ve heard, the U.S. preliminary GDP report for Q1 2011 is on tap today. So be on your toes as a worse-than-expected figure may be bearish for USD/CAD!
Due to the absence of high-profile economic reports from Canada, USD/CAD found itself right where it left off at the end of the U.S. trading session. It closed the day at .9508, just 5 pips higher from its opening price.
Yesterday may have been slow in terms of data, but today will be very different. At 12:30 pm GMT, Canada is set to release its GDP report for the month of February. The GDP report, the broadest measure of economic activity, is predicted to show that the economy [B]DID NOT GROW[/B] after expanding by a solid 0.5% in January.
A falling GDP is typically considered bearish for the domestic currency. The event has always had a strong market impact in the past, so expect some volatility following the report if it misses forecast.
Oh, and before I end this, a few words of caution. The CAD has been one of the strongest performing currencies this month, and with April about to end, we could see traders take profit and close their books. Be careful today, as we could see some sharp CAD sell-offs due to profit taking!
Take that, Greenback! The U.S. dollar was no match to the Canadian dollar strength last Friday as USD/CAD slid back to its previous lows around the .9450 area. How much further can this pair drop this week?
Not even weak GDP from Canada was enough to keep the Loonie from rallying against the Greenback. Their monthly GDP figure for February showed a 0.2% contraction, worse than the expected flat reading and the previous month’s 0.5% growth. This negative figure put an end to the four months of consecutive GDP growth as manufacturing and wholesale trade slumped in February. Maybe the recent Loonie rallies could also be blamed for this, but it seems that Loonie bulls are still set on pushing USD/CAD to break below .9450.
There aren’t any red flags on Canada’s schedule for the first few days of the week. The action is set to pick up on Thursday when Canada releases its Ivey PMI figure for April. The manufacturing index is expected to have dipped from 73.2 to 69.2 during the month and this could force the Loonie to give up its recent gains.
Also stay tuned for the release of the employment report on Friday, which could reveal an improvement in Canadian labor conditions. Net hiring is expected to be up by 15,200 in April, which could help keep their unemployment rate steady at 7.7%.
Lastly, don’t forget to keep an eye out for changes in commodity prices, particularly that of crude oil. As you all know, the Loonie’s price action is closely correlated to black crack prices!
After its impressive rally last Friday, the Loonie’s performance yesterday was surprisingly lackluster. Despite posting a new low, USD/CAD ended the day 60 pips higher due to Canada’s uncertain political outlook.
Apparently, traders speculated that there was a chance that the New Democratic Party would deny the Conservative Party the majority. The current government was considered as successful, and the possibility of a political gridlock or it being replaced did not sit well with investors. The drop in oil prices also added to the Loonie’s losses.
Data, on the other hand, were somewhat positive. The RMPI, or raw materials price index, beat consensus and showed a 5.7% increase. Meanwhile, the IPPI, or the industrial product price index, came in with a 0.9% versus the 0.7% forecast. Since both indices are considered leading indicators of inflation, we could see interest rate hike expectations pick up and provide support for the Loonie.
Nothing on Canada’s economic calendar today, so commodity prices and data from the U.S. and other major economies will probably be the primary drivers of the Loonie’s price action. Good luck trading today!
That’s strike two for the Loonie! The Greenback continued to strengthen in markets for the second day in a row, which took its toll on oil prices and the oil-related Loonie. As a result, USD/CAD ended the day 18 pips higher at .9527 after dropping to an intraday low of .9458.
Despite the lack of reports from Canada yesterday, the Loonie bears were hard at work as oil prices dropped to just below $111 per barrel. If you’ve been reading the coolest forex education site in and out of this planet, you’ll know that the Loonie usually reacts strongly to oil prices since Black Crack is one of the main exports of Canada.
But the Loonie bulls can’t take their [I]siestas[/I] just yet! Word around the street is that Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party was handed the majority in last Monday’s election, which might inspire confidence in the economy since the party is reported to have a more business-friendly platform.
No economic report is still scheduled in Canada today, but stay glued to the tube on any reactions on the elections, aight? Or if you still want to trade during the U.S. session, you might want to watch out for the big ADP report coming out of the U.S. at 12:15 pm GMT.
Stay sharp on your trades!
Down she goes… again! For three straight days now, the Loonie has lost out against its neighboring currency. Without the support of oil, it seems the comdoll has no groove! After a bit of sideways trading, USD/CAD popped up late in the New York session to end the day 59 pips higher at .9585.
Though Canada saw a healthy demand for its government bonds in its bond auction yesterday, it couldn’t do much about demand for the Loonie. Why is that, you ask? Risk aversion, baby!
Yesterday, we witnessed a broad sell-off in commodities as we saw a bit of risk aversion on the back of weak U.S. data. As a result, oil, which has been propping up the Loonie, slid back and took the Loonie along with it. You also have to keep in mind that the U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner, so the U.S.’s economic problems can easily spill over to its northern neighbor.
Today, we have heavy Canadian news on tap. First up, at 12:30 pm GMT, we have the building permits data for the month of February. Forecasts have this report showing a 1.5% decline after January’s promising 9.9% rise.
Then at 2:00 pm GMT, the Ivey PMI will finally be available. According to analysts, we’ll probably see the index take a big step down from its reading of 73.2 to 67.1. Expect volatility to pick up when the figures for April are released since this is one of Canada’s biggest reports and also because the markets are expecting the report to print such a big drop from its previous reading.
Now, I know it’s easy to get confused and rattled once the markets start moving. Just keep in mind that better than expected figures are usually bullish for the currency. That means expect USD/CAD to return to its southern course if things print green!
There’s just no stopping the Greenback! For the fourth day in a row the dollar crushed the Loonie down the chart as risk aversion continued to plague the markets. USD/CAD even tipped an intraday high of .9714 before ending the day with a 97-pip gain at .9682. Will the Loonie get a break today?
Your guess is as good as mine, kid! Yesterday Canada released its building permits report, which printed a 17.2% rise in February. That’s the sharpest increase in nearly four years!
But before you put on your bullish horns and buy up the Loonie, you should also know that the IVEY PMI, a measure of purchasing activity in Canada, plunged to a reading of 57.7 in April from its 73.2 figure in March. While some analysts are saying that the earthquake in Japan, one of Canada’s largest trading partners, is to blame, the figure still spooked the Loonie bulls.
Let’s hope that we’ll see more positive data for today! At 12:30 pm GMT we’ll get hold of Canada’s unemployment rate, together with the number of newly hired employees in the labor market. While many are expecting the unemployment rate to stabilize to 7.7% in April, others are predicting that an additional 20,000 workers found jobs during the month.
Don’t miss this big-hitting reports!
Good news for Canada! Their jobs market did much better than expected in April, allowing USD/CAD to dip below the .9600 handle. However, the U.S. NFP erased some of the Loonie’s gains, leaving USD/CAD to close at .9671.
Based on their employment change report, Canada added 58,300 jobs in April, which was higher than the expected 18,300 increase in hiring. Because of that, their jobless rate fell from 7.7% in March to 7.6% in April. On top of that, average hourly wages climbed by an annualized 2.5% during the month.
Today, Canada is set to release its housing starts data for April. The annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the month is expected to be at 183,000, slightly lower than the 185,000 housing starts for March. Watch out for the actual release at 12:15 pm GMT because a stronger than expected figure could push USD/CAD back below .9600.
No other red flags are up in Canada for the rest of the week, except for the trade balance due on Wednesday 12:30 pm GMT. Recall that, for February, the battle between imports and exports ended in a draw. With the strong surge in commodity prices the following month, I have a hunch that exports could be higher then and result in a trade surplus. Make sure you keep an eye out for the actual report because it could determine the Loonie’s fate for the rest of the week!
Just like its comdoll siblings, the Loonie came out on top in yesterday’s rumble. After opening at .9670, USD/CAD crawled slowly down the charts, ending the day at .9633, down 37 pips for the day.
The Loonie stayed steady, despite worse than expected housing starts data. Housing starts were at an annualized 179,000, slightly off the 183,000 expected figure.
Part of the reason why the Loonie remained strong may have been due to the better performance of oil. WTI crude oil futures hit a low of 95.65 late last week, but were trading as high as 103.00 yesterday. Remember, there is a strong inverse correlation between oil and USD/CAD, so as long as crude oil prices remain high, the Canadian dollar should stand to benefit.
The Loonie scored its third consecutive day of wins against the Greenback as USD/CAD closed almost 60 pips below its open price of .9636. Let’s take a look at the upcoming data from Canada to find out whether the Loonie can keep up its winning streak.
Traders showed their love for the Loonie yesterday despite the news that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) increased the margin requirement for crude oil futures. The 25% hike in margin requirement was aimed at bringing crude oil prices down yet the commodity and the Loonie both seemed unfazed.
Today, Canada is set to release its trade balance for March. Exports are expected to outpace imports during the month and could result in a 0.5 billion CAD trade surplus. A stronger than expected figure would indicate higher demand for Canadian products, which would be bullish for the Loonie. If you trade USD/CAD, make sure you watch out for the actual report due 12:30 pm GMT.
Also set for release today is a bunch of Chinese data, which could have a huge impact on risk sentiment. Keep an eye out for their CPI, PPI, industrial production, and retail sales figures at 2:00 pm GMT because strong data could make traders even hungrier for more risk!
KAPOW! And just like that, Loonie bears are back in the game! The Loonie erased much of its gains from earlier this week despite posting growth in exports and imports. Without support from oil, USD/CAD lifted off, rising from its intraday low of .9514 to end the day 34 pips higher at .9611.
For a moment, Loonie bulls were at the top of the pip-world, but it didn’t take long for them to come crashing back down! News of Canada’s trade surplus expanding from 400 million CAD to 600 million CAD (versus forecasts for 500 million CAD) in March took the bulls to nirvana, but oil prices had other plans for the Loonie.
After oil prices came crashing down (a 4% plunge!), bears took complete control over the Loonie. Of course, this is due to the direct relationship the Loonie has with oil prices. Forex Gump wrote a nice piece on it and even shows us how to trade USD/CAD using oil. Y’all should check it out!
Anyway, today, we only have NHPI data on tap, and it’s slated to show a 0.3% rise following the previous month’s 0.4% uptick. This report probably won’t do much to shake up USD/CAD, but it’s still worth catching at 12:30 pm GMT since it could move the markets if it prints waaaay off forecast!
And we’re tied! After coming out on top for on Monday and Tuesday, the Loonie scored its second loss to the dollar yesterday when USD/CAD parked 12 pips higher from its opening price at .9623. Which currency do you think will take home the bacon on the last trading day of the week?
The only report we had on tap yesterday was the NHPI for March. It revealed that the change in the selling price of homes remained flat during the month and fell short of the market’s expected 0.3% uptick.
With our economic calendar still blank for high-caliber reports from Canada today, you’d wanna keep an ear out for how the commodity markets are doing to help you trade the Loonie. Remember that the currency usually moves along with commodities especially Canada’s biggest export, oil.
From what I’ve heard, the Loonie was able to rally from its intraday low of .9695 all the way down to its closing price because of the rebound in black crack. Good luck!
The Loonie was no exception to the big losses we saw across the charts last Friday. The Greenback spared no one! After peaking at .9744 and forging a new 6-week high against the Greenback, USD/CAD ended the day 63 pips higher at .9687.
When risk aversion sets in, you know the Loonie’s gonna bite the dust! Sadly, that’s exactly what happened last Friday. After getting spooked by global growth concerns, market players were trembling like little school girls!
But the Loonie was able to parry some of the Greenback’s blows thanks to a rise in oil prices, which is why it didn’t hit the ground as hard as other major currencies.
Actually, if you take a close look at price action lately, you’ll see that the Loonie has been doing much better than other high-yielding currencies. All y’all need to do is check out Loonie crosses to see exactly what I’m talking about! Of course, this could be due to Canada’s impressive recent economic performance. I guess the markets haven’t forgotten their fundamentals, eh?
Let’s see if Canada can continue to impress the markets this week!
Later today, at 12:30 pm GMT, it’s supposed to have its March manufacturing sales data ready for our eager eyes. Forecasts are for a growth of 1.6%, a nice rebound from the weak sauce 1.5% decline that we saw in February. If we see a better-than-expected figure, it could be enough to give Loonie bulls a fighting chance against the Greenback.
As for the rest of the week, we have CPI and retail sales data to look forward to on Friday. I don’t think I need to remind you how the BOC has been growing more concerned about rising prices, do I? As for retail sales, you already know it has a tendency to shake up the markets! Needless to say, don’t miss these reports if you want action!
And the losing streak continues! For the fourth consecutive day, the Canadian dollar found itself on the losing side, as USD/CAD managed to close 51 pips higher at .9739. Can the Loonie bounce back?
Not even solid manufacturing sales data could keep the Loonie from slumping. Sales rose by 1.9% in March, beating estimates of a 1.6% increase. The good news is that sales were up 4% from the last quarter of 2010, which is a sign that the Canadian economy is improving.
Later today at 12:30 pm GMT, foreign securities purchases data will be available. This report measures the total value of Canadian financial securities that foreigners bought last March. Word is that the figure has nearly doubled from February’s 2.50 billion CAD figure to 4.93 billion CAD. Take note that if foreigners want to get their hands on Canadian financial assets, they must first purchase Canadian dollars. Thus, this report helps give an idea for the demand for the Loonie.
Talk about being fickle! USD/CAD found itself see-sawing in the charts yesterday as it bounced around an 80-pip range. While it had rallied as high as .9794 from its day open at .9738 during the session, it actually closed the day with a small 8 pip loss at .9730.
It appears that traders are highly uncertain about the state of the Loonie. On the one hand, traders believe that inflation will probably surge as the country’s CPI is predicted to tick higher. But on the other hand, the forex market seems to be avoiding high-yielding currencies like the commodity dollars due to all the disappointing news from the euro zone.
Today, we may get a bit of direction as two important reports will be coming out of Canada at 8:30 pm GMT.
The first one is the leading index. The leading index, which attempts to predict the direction of Canada’s economy for the next 6 months, is predicted to show a 0.8% just like last month. The second one comes in the form of a wholesale sales report. The wholesales sales report is expected to show a rise of 1.3% for March after I had fallen 0.6% in February. Good figures (i.e., higher than forecast) will be beneficial for the Loonie.
Yawn… Another tight day for USD/CAD, which traded within a tight range of just over 50 pips. After testing at high as .9760, the pair headed lower during the New York session to close at .9706, just 20 pips lower for the day.
What helped the Loonie’s cause? Well, it certainly wasn’t the Canadian economic data that was released!
While the leading index came in as expected at 0.8%, wholesale sales printed at 0.1%, way off the projected 1.3% increase. This indicates that retailers are ordering less from wholesalers. One potential reason for this is that with oil prices sky rocketing, consumers could be making less trips to the shop. In turn, retailers may not be stockpiling as much inventory and goods as they normally do.
No red flags coming up from Canada today, but that doesn’t mean you can chill out and watch the latest episode of Game of Thrones. We have some top tier reports from the U.S. on deck, any of which could drive the market, so watch out!
Sweet! With risk appetite firming up, USD/CAD fell 24 pips and the Loonie was able to post its third straight win against the Greenback. Now, I wonder if the Loonie can extend its winning streak to four in a row…
With oil supporting its rise, it wasn’t a big deal to the Loonie that Canada didn’t publish any reports. But rest assured, today’s reports will be a big deal!
At 11:00 am GMT, Canada will get the party started with a bit of CPI data. Forecasts are for headline CPI to edge down from 1.1% to 0.5%, while the core version of the report is expected to soften from 0.7% to 0.1%. If you wanna learn more about what to expect, I suggest you take a look at Forex Gump’s preview of Canadian CPI.
After that, at 12:30 pm GMT, Canada will kick the party up a notch with retail sales data. Analysts seem to be siding with the bulls for this release. They forecasted a 0.9% increase in retail sales, more than double February’s growth! Needless to say, we could see a sharp Loonie rally if March’s results come in higher than expected.
Just like Happy Pip’s trade early this month, the fourth time wasn’t the charm for the Loonie as weak economic data from Canada and reduced expectations of a BOC interest rate hike broke the falling streak of USD/CAD. The pair only went down to an intraday low of .9641 before it ended the day 41 pips higher at .9641.
Last Friday Canada’s data revealed that inflation rose less than market geeks had expected. Apparently, a strong Canadian currency held back rising prices, pushing the CPI report to only a 0.3% rise in April after a 1.1% increase in March. What’s more, even the big retail sales report disappointed markets with an unexpectedly flat growth when market bees were buzzing for a 0.9% upsurge in March.
Let’s see if the Loonie can fly back to the top again this week even when no big economic data is scheduled. Aside from a bank holiday today, the only even worth noting is the release of the corporate profits for the first quarter on Thursday at 12:30 pm GMT. The data clocked in a 7.9% growth in the last quarter of 2010, so keep your eyes peeled for any surprises!
Loonie bulls screamed “Mayday, mayday!” during yesterday’s trading and no, it wasn’t in celebration of Canada’s May Day holiday. The distress call resounded in the market as the comdoll scored its second loss to the Greenback when USD/CAD closed 33 pips higher at .9771.
So what kept the Loonie from getting its game on?
Well, with Europe’s debt crisis back in vogue, risk aversion reared its ugly head back into the market and spooked traders out of higher-yielding currencies. It also didn’t help that Canada’s biggest export, oil, declined in yesterday’s trading. Remember that the currency usually follows the commodity’s moves on the charts.
With our economic calendar still blank for reports for the Loonie today, it may be best for you to keep tabs on market sentiment. Keep in mind that the currency usually rallies when risk appetite kicks in.