It looks like the Loonie is up to old tricks again, moving sideways across the board as the doldrums of summer approaches! USD/CAD just traded within a very tight 50-pip range yesterday, bouncing off resistance at .9800 and finding support at .9755.
But who could blame the Loonie for its very slow price action? Monday was a bank holiday and Canada had absolutely nothing on its forex calendar yesterday.
For today, Canada’s economic cupboard will be empty again, so we could see the Loonie keep trading within its trading range. Keep an eye out on those previous day highs and lows – they could serve as vital inflection points!
Let’s go, Loonie, let’s go! Although the Loonie started the day on a weak foot and was outpaced by the Greenback, it put up a good fight during the U.S. session. Unfortunately, the Loonie’s valiant efforts weren’t enough to warrant a win. USD/CAD reached a high of .9817 and ended at .9776.
Not even the rise in oil prices was enough to lift the Loonie’s spirits yesterday. Crude oil prices jumped by 1.65% yet the Canadian dollar still ended lower against the Greenback, suggesting that traders are still hesitant to take on more risk.
Then again, traders don’t seem too gung-ho about the safe-haven U.S. dollar either. Instead of flocking to the Greenback when the U.S. released weak durable goods orders figures, traders sold off the dollar instead! Make sure you read my U.S. economic commentary to find out why.
Canada won’t be releasing any top-tier reports today so y’all better keep close tabs on any possible changes in risk sentiment to figure out where the Loonie could head today.
The Loonie’s performance was as boring as Cyclopip’s gym stories during yesterday’s trading. USD/CAD traded sideways, ending the day at 8 pips higher from its opening price at .9787.
Market junkies think that the pullback in oil might have been a factor in the Loonie’s loss yesterday. Remember that black crack is Canada’s biggest export and the currency usually moves in tandem with the commodity.
There is also speculation that evidence of slowing growth in Canada’s largest exporting partner, the U.S., also weighed down the Loonie.
Our forex calendar is blank for economic reports today. So it may be best for you to keep tabs on oil and the reports we have from the U.S. Good luck!
Yawn.USD/CAD’s 50-pip range was tighter than Happy Pip’s tutu last Friday when the lack of economic reports from Canada extended the pair’s move from Thursday. The pair dropped to an intraday low of .9753 before closing with a 13-pip loss at .9774.
Good thing the markets weren’t completely boring! Since the Greenback was losing across the board, black crack traders felt confident enough to push the dollar-denominated July crude oil contract to $100.59 per barrel, which added support to the oil-related Loonie.
This week market junkies will get a chance to focus on Canada’s economy. The GDP report for March will kick off the week today at 12:30 pm GMT, followed by the current account report around the same time. Traders are looking to see a healthier economic growth figure in March, but keep an eye out for any surprises!
Speaking of surprises, markets aren’t expecting any from the Bank of Canada this week when it releases its interest rate decision tomorrow at 12:30 pm GMT. Many believe that a strong Loonie, weakening commodity prices, and a bit of uncertainty in the economic growth of the U.S., its largest trading partner, might sheath the BOC hawks’ claws for a while. You have to stay glued to the tube though, because we might still see hawkish statements peppered in the BOC’s rate statement!
GDP? What GDP? Loonie traders acted like they didn’t see Canada’s solid GDP results as they hardly moved USD/CAD yesterday. The pair stayed within a tight 35-pip range and closed just 5 pips lower for the day.
You’d think that Loonie bulls would be thrilled to see Canada’s GDP grow 0.3% (versus 0.2% forecast) in March, but they didn’t seem impressed at all! Even though March’s figure brings Q1 2011’s growth to an annualized rate of 3.9%, the strongest in a year, Loonie traders barely managed a yawn.
I can think of two possible explanations as to why USD/CAD was such a bore yesterday.
First, the U.S. and U.K. were out on holiday, so liquidity was much thinner than usual. Without the U.S. and U.K. markets, there were hardly any players around to move the pair.
Second, perhaps Loonie traders didn’t want to commit to a position ahead of the BOC rate statement. After all, it’s just a few hours away at 1:00 pm GMT today.
The markets widely expect the central bank to keep its benchmark interest rate at 1.0%. Some even say the BOC could sound a bit more dovish than usual, and that we may hear rhetoric about global headwinds increasing and inflation in Canada softening. In any case, be sure to catch the report because it will probably determine USD/CAD’s direction for the rest of the week!
Now that’s how you break a consolidation! Thanks to hawkish statements from the Bank of Canada, USD/CAD broke its tight consolidation and plunged to an intraday low of .9655 before capping the day with an 80-pip loss at .9692. Will this move continue for the rest of the week?
Though the BOC kept its interest rates at 1.00% yesterday, market junkies cheered at its hawkishness. In its statement, the BOC recognized that it might “eventually” hike its interest rates. Given that the last time the BOC raised its rates was in September last year, the almost unexpected hawkish tone energized the Loonie bulls.
As positive as the hawkish tone was though, some traders still believe that it might take a while before we actually see a BOC rate hike. After all, Canada’s exposure to the U.S. economy is still holding back investors, and the Loonie’s strength is also doing its part in cooling down inflationary pressures.
No economic report is scheduled for release today in Canada, so keep close watch on the U.S. data hitting your way in the U.S. trading session!
At first, the Loonie seemed to be doing just fine while fighting to hold on to its recent gains against the Greenback. USD/CAD consolidated below the .9700 handle right before the U.S. session but the Loonie lost its cool when risk aversion gripped the markets. Because of that, USD/CAD broke higher and closed at .9756.
Weak economic data from the U.S. brought risk aversion back in the markets, forcing traders to let go off higher-yielding currencies such as the Loonie. If you wanna find out which reports churned out disappointing figures, better check out my U.S. economic commentary!
Canada won’t be releasing any economic figures today so make sure you get a good feel of risk sentiment before taking any Loonie trades. Take note that Greece just got a downgrade from credit rating agency Moody’s and this could keep risk-taking contained. On top of that, downbeat expectations for the upcoming U.S. NFP release could also weigh on riskier currencies. Good luck trading!
Whew, that was a close one! The Loonie bears got busy early in the day when they pushed USD/CAD to an intraday high of .9810, but the comdolls soon eased their losses and the pair recovered to a close near its open price at .9756.
Canada didn’t release any economic report yesterday, so the Loonie bulls and bears were busy digesting information from other economies. Anticipation for another day of risk aversion might have brought USD/CAD to its intraday highs, but a flat report in the U.S. and a somewhat positive report for the euro zone soon restored the good vibes for the Loonie.
Of course, the Loonie might have also gotten support from yesterday’s rise in oil prices. The Loonie dipped slightly on the news that crude oil stockpiles unexpectedly increased at the start of the summer season, but oil went back up to $100/barrel when markets realized that a weak dollar could actually counter the effect of the rise in oil supply.
No news will come out from Canada today, so make sure you keep your eyes sharp for any surprises in the NFP, okay? As Forex Gump mentioned in his NFP article yesterday, the biggest move after the NFP is USUALLY the opposite direction of the first reaction. Something to think about, don’t you think?
“Take that, Greenback!” yelled the Loonie last Friday when it took the weak U.S. jobs report as a chance to retaliate against the U.S. dollar. Even though USD/CAD reached a high of .9853, Loonie strength pushed the pair down to close at .9782. But will today’s set of Canadian data change all that?
Canada didn’t release any economic figures last Friday yet the Loonie was still able to pocket some gains when the U.S. unveiled a weak NFP reading. If you have no idea how that turned out, you absolutely must take a look at my U.S. economic commentary!
Despite the weakness of its North American neighbor, Canada’s currency wasn’t able to take full advantage of U.S. dollar weakness. The Loonie still ended up with a losing day as USD/CAD closed 25 pips higher than its .9757 open price. That’s because the Canadian economy is hugely dependent on Uncle Sam, which means that a setback in the U.S. economy could also hurt Canada.
Today’s economic reports should shed more light on whether Canada is having problems of its own. The building permits figure for April, which is set for release 12:30 pm GMT, could show a 2.3% drop. This could be negative for the Loonie since Canada has been printed strong building permits figures for February and March.
At 2:00 pm GMT, Canada will release its Ivey PMI figure. The reading for May is expected to climb from 57.7 to 59.9, indicating that the expansion in Canada’s manufacturing industry strengthened during the month. Stronger than expected figures could give the Loonie the push it needs to end higher against the Greenback so make sure you don’t miss out on those reports.
Oh, and if you’re planning to play these economic news today, our lesson on trading the news could help you catch those pips!
Full steam ahead! The bear train paid little attention to a solid Ivey PMI reading as sellers powered through the charts. They pushed USD/CAD 27 pips up to close above .9800 for the first time in over two months!
Even with the Ivey PMI printing a reading of 69.1, which is 10 points higher than most had expected, the Loonie bear train wasn’t derailed. Manufacturing activity saw a nice pickup last month, which is great news considering it slowed down a bit in April. To be honest, the strong growth that Canada saw came as a bit of a surprise considering almost every other country recorded weak manufacturing growth last month.
Building permits data also sided with the bears as it showed a staggering 21.1% drop in April. Yeah, my eyes popped out when I saw that figure, too! It’s almost ten times worse than what markets had expected, and is the biggest decline in over five years! According to the details of the report, Canada’s ailing housing market is to blame.
Nothing more to see from Canada today. In the meantime, be sure to get a good feel for risk sentiment. Strong market risk appetite might just be what the Loonie needs to get a win on the charts!
Finally! After four consecutive days of losing to the dollar, the Loonie was able to hustle enough muscle to score a win from its counterpart. USD/CAD plunged to an intraday low of .9731 before ending the day 54 pips lower from its opening price at .9754.
From what I’ve heard, the Loonie benefitted from the positive data that came out from Europe which sparked a tinge of risk appetite. Of course, it might have also helped that the dollar was weak in yesterday’s trading.
So aside from economic data, make sure you gauge market sentiment first before pulling the trigger on any trade. Capiche?
Today we’ll get dibs on Canada’s housing market at 12:30 pm GMT. Data for May is expected to show that the number of new residential buildings that started construction during the month is up at 184,000 from April’s 179,000 reading.
The Loonie gave back almost all of its gains from the previous day as USD/CAD chose to stay within the 100-pip range it has established over the past few days. Loonie sellers pushed the pair up from its opening price of .9754 to close just below the .9800 handle.
Like most of the major currencies, the Loonie had its butt whooped by the Greenback yesterday. Blame it on risk aversion!
Unfortunately, Canada’s housing starts report didn’t do much to restore confidence in the Loonie. It printed exactly as analysts had forecasted, showing an annualized 184,000 housing starts in May. This number was neither bad nor good, so neither bulls nor bears went wild after seeing it.
Today, we’ve got something a little bit heavier on tap- trade balance data! Rising commodity prices should help boost Canada’s exports, but the soft patch in the U.S.economy presents risks to the downside. In any case, analysts believe trade will post a surplus of about 0.4 billion CAD, slightly narrower than the 0.6 billion CAD surplus of March. Don’t miss the report when it rolls out at 12:30 pm GMT!
Adapt and overcome!!! Despite poor economic data, the Canadian dollar found itself trading higher versus the dollar. USD/CAD bounced off the key .9800 handle and closed 45 pips lower for the day at .9732.
Trade balance figures were rather disappointing, as it printed a deficit of 900 million CAD, which was double the previous month’s deficit of 400 million CAD, and way off the expected 400 million CAD surplus. The problem? Uncle Sam!
The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner but with the dollar hitting major lows, this has hurt the purchasing power of U.S. importers.
Still, the Canadian dollar bulls shrugged their shoulders and just kept buying!!!
Looking ahead, we’ve got employment data on deck at 11:00 am GMT. Word through the grapevine is that another 20,000 jobs were added to the economy last May. While this ain’t as hot as the previous month’s 58,000 figure, it would still mark the second consecutive month of a net job increase. If this reports comes in better than expected, it spark another CAD rally.
Risk aversion was the name of the game last Friday, which meant currencies like the Loonie was sold-off like ice cream on a hot summer day. USD/CAD closed the day at .9783, 52 pips higher from its opening price during the Asian trading session.
Despite the Loonie taking some hits, Canada’s labor market seems to be showing promise. The country’s employment change released last Friday showed that the number of people employed increased by 22,300 (net), much higher than the 21,800 initially anticipated. The jobless rate also improved to 7.4% from the previous month’s 7.6%.
This week, the action continues as a bunch of mid-tier economic reports come out.
Tomorrow, at 12:30 pm GMT, we will see the report industry capacity utilization. Traders usually consider the report as a leading indicator of inflation. A rising utilization rate typically reflects rising business costs, which could translate to higher prices for consumers.
On Wednesday, the report on manufacturing sales will be released. The market expects a 1.8% gain, which is slightly lower than the previous month’s 2.0% increase.
Then, on Thursday, the report on foreign securities purchases will be published. The expectation is a 5.45 billion CAD figure, a decrease from the previous month’s 6.34 billion CAD. The foreign securities purchases basically computes the total value of Canadian bonds, securities, and other financial assets bought by foreigners.
Last on the economic data list this week is the wholesales sales report. After gaining 0.1% in March, wholesale sales are predicted to have fallen by 0.2% in April. The report is due on Friday.
Green, red, green, red… That’s all I see on the daily chart of USD/CAD! For the 3rd consecutive time, a bearish red candle has followed a bullish green candle on the daily! After testing the .9800 handle, USD/CAD finished the day 30 pips lower at .9768.
The Canadian dollar’s rise yesterday was somewhat surprising, given how oil took a hit yesterday. Normally, if oil prices drop, the Canadian dollar follows suit. Chances are yesterday was just an aberration and primary reason why USD/CAD dropped was due to general USD weakness.
Later tonight, capacity utilization figures will be available at 12:30 pm GMT. Early estimates are that 77.0% of resources are being utilized by industry players. A higher than expected rate would signal that production is picking up, which would signal that inflation may also start to pick up soon.
BOC Governor Mark Carney will be speaking in front of the Board of Trade at 7:50 pm GMT. Now, this isn’t an “official” monetary policy statement, but since he will be speaking to the Board of Trade, he may just talk about the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar and how it may negatively affect export industries. If he says that the central bank is worried about CAD strength, we may just see USD/CAD rise once again.
After seesawing at .9750 for almost a week, the Loonie was finally able to break free from the bears yesterday. USD/CAD traded lower and ended the day 78 pips below its opening price at .9690.
We saw mixed reports from Canada but luckily for the Loonie, positive data from China and the U.S. spurred risk appetite.
The capacity utilization rate for Q1 2011, which came in at 79.0%, might have been bullish for the Loonie since it indicated that producers were nearer their full capacity than they were during Q4 2010 when it was only 77.8%. On top of that, the actual figure also beat the consensus by 2.0%.
However, we saw that the change in the number of new vehicles sold in Canada declined by 1.1% in April, and disappointed the 1.8% uptick that the market was eyeing.
The only report we have scheduled later at 12:30 pm GMT, is the manufacturing sales report for April. A 1.7% decline is anticipated following the 1.9% uptick we saw in March. If you’re planning to root for the Loonie, keep your fingers crossed for a better-than-expected figure. And oh! Make sure you get a good feel of market sentiment in today’s trading, ayt? Peace!
If you had any doubts just how slippery oil can get, then you gotta take a look at yesterday’s price action! Risk aversion in markets dragged crude oil prices to a four-month low yesterday, which weighed heavily on the high-yielding, oil-related Loonie. After falling to a low of .9671, USD/CAD shot up by 118 pips and closed at .9789.
Aside from violent protests in Greece and euro zone officials’ lack of agreement over a bailout solution, a surprisingly weak manufacturing data from the U.S., as well as a weak manufacturing sales report in Canada slackened the demand for the Loonie. Of course, it also didn’t help that crude oil prices fell by a ginormous 4.6% and hit a four-month low. Heck, USD/CAD completely erased last Wednesday’s losses and even touched the .9800 level.
Today at 12:30 pm GMT Canada is set to release its wholesale sales report. Analysts are expecting a 0.2% decline in April from a 0.1% gain in March, but we never know how many surprises can pop up in a day! Also, keep an eye out for the risk sentiment, will ya? I have a feeling that the oil (and risk sentiment) action aren’t over just yet.
Oh boy, the Loonie must’ve been hurting from yesterday’s break up. That USD/CAD breakout to the upside, I mean! The pair broke above the major psychological resistance at .9700 and reached a high of .9899 as the safe-havens took the upper hand. Find out if the Loonie can put up a good fight today.
Even though Canada’s foreign securities purchases report printed a stronger than expected figure yesterday, it wasn’t enough to keep the Loonie from sliding lower against the U.S. dollar. The Canadian currency also wasn’t able to draw support from its usual ally, black crack, because crude oil prices stayed below $95/barrel.
Without any Canadian data on tap, the Loonie will just have to rely on risk sentiment for the rest of the day. If you’re planning to trade USD/CAD, make sure you drop by my U.S. economic commentary to read about the reports that could affect dollar pairs.
Whew, that was a close battle! USD/CAD was all over the charts last Friday when a burst of risk appetite inspired mixed reaction from the dollar bulls and bears. The pair dropped to an intraday low of .9773 in the Asian session before it finished strong just above the .9800 handle.
With markets keeping close tabs on the euro region last Friday, the Loonie bulls shrugged off Canada’s weak wholesale sales report, and focused on a possible new bailout plan for Greece. If you still want to know the details, you should know that wholesale sales in Canada slipped by 0.1% in April after printing a 0.3% growth in March. Are we seeing a weakening consumer spending here?
No one knows for sure, of course. But we might get more clues on Canada’s economy when BOC Governor Mark Carney gives a speech today at 5:00 pm GMT, followed by the retail sales and leading index figures tomorrow at 12:30 pm GMT.
The rest of the week will be pretty light for Canada’s economic boards, so it’s best to keep an eye out for risk appetite. With oil still trading below the psychological $100 per barrel and the euro zone officials still playing rock-paper-scissors over Greece’s bailout plan, we’ll likely see increased volatility with Loonie (and other comdoll) pairs for the next couple of days.