Is risk appetite back or what? The Loonie seemed to benefit from a rebound in risk yesterday as USD/CAD closed right at the .9800 handle after hitting a high of .9850. With Canadian retail sales due today, will the Loonie be able to hold on to its recent gains?
Canada is set to release its April retail sales report at 12:30 pm GMT today. The headline figure could print a 0.6% increase, up from the flat reading seen the previous month. Meanwhile, the core version of the report could show a 0.5% uptick and make up for the 0.1% decline seen last March. However, the previously reported wholesale sales report and weak jobs data could pose a downside risk for consumer spending. Keep an eye out for weaker than expected retail sales figures because these could force the Loonie to return some of its recent gains.
Canada’s leading index is also due 12:30 pm GMT today and it could show a 0.6% rise for May, which would be a couple of notches below the 0.8% reading seen last April.
Losses. In the forex market, they’re as temporary as a yummy cheeseburger in front of contestants in “The Biggest Loser!” The Loonie, after it had given up some ground on Monday, managed to edge higher versus other major currencies. USD/CAD, for instance, closed the day 77 pips lower at .9724.
If you’re wondering what helped the Loonie recuperate its losses, then look no further! Yesterday, risk appetite was in full swing as the Greek government endured a crucial confidence vote and made it eligible for the next round of aid.
Unfortunately, economic data didn’t share the same optimistic tone as it came in weaker than consensus. Canada’s retail sales report only printed a 0.3% increase, half the 0.6% rise initially predicted. Meanwhile, the core version of the report that excludes volatile items such as automobiles came in flat. The market expected a 0.5% jump following the previous month’s 0.2% decrease.
No red flags on Canada’s forex calendar today, so USD/CAD could end up trading between the previous day’s highs and lows. Also keep a close eye on the .9800 level, as it could serve as a major resistance level!
And it ends with a truce! Well, not really. No economic report was released from Canada yesterday, but dollar strength across the board took its toll on the Loonie. After dropping to its one-week low at .9701, USD/CADended the day 6 pips higher at .9731.
No reports were released from Canada yesterday, but U.S. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s FOMC speech hinted that although economic recovery in the U.S. is slower than they expected, the Fed would not be injecting money into the economy anytime soon. The news boosted the dollar across the board, which dragged on the Loonie.
Once again, Canada won’t be releasing any economic report today. Keep a close eye on risk sentiment though, as any change in risk appetite could affect the high-yielding Loonie.
When risk aversion hits the market, which currencies usually take the hardest hit? The comdolls of course! The Loonie after its strong performance early in the week, staged a massive fall across the board yesterday. USD/CAD, for instance, closed the U.S. trading session at .9781, 52 pips higher from its Asian session opening price.
Since Canada had nothing to offer in its economic cupboard, the Loonie had nothing to cling on to. The market was overcome with fear, as the VIX, the fear index, surged 15%.
Canada’s forex calendar has nothing to offer us today, so look at U.S. data to provide direction for the Loonie. Pay special attention to durable goods orders at 12:30 pm GMT from the U.S., as it tends to have a hefty impact on the market!
Risk aversion and oil price speculation continued to pull the strings of the Loonie, and caused it to slip down the charts last Friday. USD/CAD ended up climbing to an intraday high of .9887 before it capped the day at .9870, 90 pips higher than its open price.
While no economic report was released from Canada, problems in Greece continued to weigh on high-yielding assets like the Loonie. On top of that, the Loonie was also hit by speculations that oil demand from the U.S. might not be as rosy in the next couple of months. Since oil is one of Canada’s biggest exports, the possibility of low demand dragged on the Loonie.
Let’s see if the Loonie bulls manage to hustle some muscle this week when Canada releases its economic reports. The action will begin on Wednesday at 11:00 am GMT with the CPI report. Both the headline and the core figures are expected to maintain their numbers last April, but keep an eye out for any surprises!
As much as the CPI report excites me though, I’m all about this Thursday’s GDP report at 12:30 pm GMT. Many market geeks are speculating that Canada’s GDP in April will be weaker than its 0.3% figure in March, but we’ll have to wait till Thursday to know for sure!
Oh Loonie, you’re so fine! A slight rebound in risk appetite yesterday allowed the Canadian dollar to end a tad higher against the Greenback, as USD/CAD closed one pip below its .9868 open price. Hey, that’s not so bad considering the pair reached a high of .9914 earlier in the day!
Canada didn’t release any economic data yesterday, but traders didn’t hesitate to buy the higher-yielding Loonie when risk-taking returned. If you wanna find out why, I suggest you check out my euro zone economic commentary.
There aren’t any reports due from Canada again today, which means that the movement of the Loonie could depend on risk sentiment once more. Unless we hear of commodity-related news, like that of the IEA’s announcement to pump up crude oil supply last week, the Loonie could keep gaining if risk appetite extends its stay.
No data was released from Canada yesterday, but with risk appetite back in vogue, the Canadian dollar ended up on top. USD/CAD followed up Monday’s non-action by diving 39 pips deep to close at .9827.
For today, monthly CPI figures are scheduled for release at 11:00 am GMT. Word on the street is that both the headline and core CPI reports will print at 0.2%, showing that inflation remains subdued in the Great White North. Watch out though, if these reports indicate that inflation is hotter than what they believed it to be. Higher inflation figures would prompt the Bank of Canada to raise rates sooner, which would give the Canadian dollar a nice boost across the charts.
Did you see that USD/CAD dive yesterday? That was exactly 120 pips high! The pair opened at .9827 and dropped all the way down to close at .9707 when Canada printed strong inflation reports. Read on to find out how these reports turned out.
Canada’s inflation reports came in stronger than expected as its headline CPI printed a 0.7% increase while its core figure showed a 0.6% rise. This beat expectations of a mere 0.2% uptick for both figures. Components of the inflation reports revealed that the jump in gasoline prices was the main factor that drove price levels up.
Loonie bulls were overjoyed by these strong inflation figures because this could mean that the BOC might hike rates soon. And we all know how expectations of an interest rate hike drive the bulls crazy, don’t we?
Canada is set to report its monthly GDP figure today and another strong result could fuel more speculations of a rate hike. However, analysts are predicting that the April GDP would show a 0.1% decline. Stay tuned for the actual results at 12:30 pm GMT if you’re trading the Loonie!
And with that, the Loonie completes its hat trick! For the third straight day, the Loonie surged up the charts and pushed USD/CAD another 62 pips down.
Rather than drop by 0.1%, Canada’s GDP was unchanged in April after it rose 0.3% in March. I dug in a little deeper and discovered that the public sector, retail sales, construction, and mining all saw nice increases in April. Cool, right? However, these gains were completely countered by weakness in wholesale trade, real estate, finance, and manufacturing. What a downer!
Don’t expect to hear much from our buddies up in Canada today. Those guys are off to an early weekend as they celebrate Canada Day. In the meantime, check out what the U.S. has to offer. It would also be wise for you to keep risk sentiment in check. I don’t think I need to remind you of how it’s been driving the markets lately, do I? I didn’t think so!
Like a bar of Twix to a toddler with a sweet tooth, the Loonie seemed totally irresistible in Friday’s trading to investors. After tapping an intraday high of .9652, USD/CAD rallied to close at its 7-week low at .9585.
We didn’t have any data on tap for the Loonie last Friday as Canadians celebrated Canada Day. However, there was enough risk appetite to go around for most higher-yielding currencies to rally against the dollar.
But aside from market sentiment, make sure you’re also on your toes for the second-tier RMPI report for May which is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT today. Watch out for a figure better than the expected 2.5% decline in the price of raw materials bought by manufacturers as this would possibly be bullish for the currency. Remember that a rise in production costs is usually taken as a leading indicator of inflation because additional expenses are often passed on to consumers.
Traders weren’t exactly feeling loco for the Loonie in yesterday’s trading. After opening at .9597, USD/CAD dipped to its intraday low at .9580 before ending the day higher at .9609.
Aside from volume being on the low because most U.S. traders were enjoying their extended weekend, the disappointing raw materials price index report might have also weighed on the Loonie’s performance. The actual figure printed a 5.2% decline in prices which was more than double the 2.5% contraction that the market was expecting.
Our forex calendar is blank for reports from Canada today, but keep tabs on market sentiment and remember that the currency usually rallies in times of risk appetite. You may also want to keep an eye out for oil as the Loonie usually moves along with the commodity on the charts. Good luck!
Yeouch! Despite the rise in oil prices and other commodities, the Canadian dollar found itself on the losing end yesterday. USD/CAD rose 23 pips to finish the day at .9631.
The Canadian dollar is normally highly correlated to movements in oil prices, so yesterday’s price action was a little weird. Still, the overall trend for USD/CAD is down and considering how much the pair fell last week, the past few days may just mean that sellers are just pausing before gearing up for another stronger move down.
For today, we’ve got building permits data coming in during the New York session. Permits for the construction of new buildings is expected to have risen by 5.1% in May, after they had dropped a massive 21.1% in April. Take note that the last few reports have missed the mark, so be on your toes when this report is released later at 12:30 pm GMT.
Once again, the comdolls got their hineys whooped by the Greenback in yesterday’s trading. The Loonie, in particular, lost 25 pips when USD/CAD ended the day at .9656 despite positive data from Canada.
The building permits report for May came in more than four times the market consensus when it printed at 20.9%. Analysts were only eyeing a 5.1% uptick in permits. Too bad risk aversion was in full-swing. Drats!
Hmmm, I wonder if today’s reports will be able to turn things around for the Loonie. At 12:30 pm GMT, we’ll have the NHPI report for May which is expected to show a 0.2% increase in the selling price of homes.
Then at 2:00 pm GMT, the Ivey PMI report for June will be released. A slight slowdown in manufacturing is anticipated with the forecast lower at 65.7 compared to May’s 69.1 reading.
If you’re planning to buy the Loonie, keep your fingers crossed for better-than-expected reports!
The comdoll strikes back! Though Canada printed mixed economic reports yesterday, the wave of risk appetite in markets was enough to push USD/CAD to its 8-week low of .9569 before capping the day 68 pips lower than its open price at .9588.
Yesterday we saw Canada’s IVEY PMI, an index of purchasing managers’ sentiments, drop to a 68.2 reading in June from its 69.1 figure in May. Though it’s a bit better than the expected 65.7 number, the data still hinted at a slower economic growth for the country.
The silver lining in the group of reports is the new housing price index, which climbed by 0.4% in May from its 0.3% growth in April.
Today expect the Loonie pairs to show a bit more volatility than the usual because we not only have Canada’s employment numbers on tap at 11:00 am GMT, but we also have the closely-watched NFP report from the U.S. at 12:30 pm GMT. Both economic releases are red flags for the currency bulls and bears, so make sure you keep your trades tight, aight?
Not even a divergence in good employment data with the U.S. could help the Canadian dollar rally last Friday! After trading within a tight range for most of the day, USD/CAD broke higher once the New York session rolled around, closing 18 pips higher at .9606.
The Great White North added about 28,400 new jobs to the economy last month, which was way more than the anticipated 13,800 increase. This marked the third consecutive month that a substantial net gain was made. If this keeps up, it might just prompt the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates sooner rather than later!
Speaking of the BOC, it will be releasing its business outlook survey today at 2:30 pm GMT. Market participants normally keep an eye on this report, as it is a good leading indicator of what direction the economy is headed. If the report shows that companies are more optimistic than in the past, it could give the Canadian dollar a nice boost.
In other news, housing starts data will also be available at 12:15 pm GMT. The annualized rate of homes that began construction is expected to come in at 182,000, which would be just a small decline from the previous month’s 184,000 pace. I don’t expect this to move the markets too much, unless of course, we see a drastically better-than or worse-than expected figure.
Just like its comdoll homies, the Loonie fell victim to risk aversion yesterday and scored a loss against the dollar. USD/CAD skyrocketed up the charts after opening at .9621, closing the day 71 pips higher at .9692.
Too bad for the Loonie, concerns about the debt contagion spreading to Italy overshadowed the good vibes that might have been brought about by the positive reports from Canada.
Yesterday we saw that housing starts continued to tick higher in June when the report printed at 197,000 and topped the 182,000 forecast. The reading is up by 3,000 from the figure we saw for May.
The BOC Business Outlook Survey for the second quarter of 2011 also showed that majority of the firms interviewed are optimistic that sales would pick up in the next 12 months despite slowing growth in its biggest trading partner, the U.S.
With that said, make sure you get a good feel of market sentiment first before deciding whether to buy or sell the Loonie. Also keep in mind that the trade balance report for May will be on tap later at 12:30 pm GMT. Analysts are expecting to see that imports outpaced exports by 800 million CAD. Be on your toes for a narrower trade deficit or maybe a trade surplus as this may just boost the Loonie up the charts!
“I ain’t going down without a fight,” the Loonie exclaimed yesterday as the currency defended the Greenback’s advances. The Loonie, after giving up a lot of ground early in the Asian trading session, against the Greenback, fought back and actually managed to close the U.S. trading session with a gain. USD/CAD ended the day at .9662, 30 pips lower from its opening price.
The Loonie’s gains could be attributed to the stark contrast between U.S. and Canadian economic figures. While Canada’s trade balance showed an improvement (800 million CAD deficit vs 900 million CAD deficit last month), the U.S. trade balance actually got worse (50.2 billion USD deficit vs 44.1 billion USD deficit last month).
No major data release on the forex calendar today, so the Loonie could end up trading sideways today. Keep a close eye on those major support and resistance levels folks, as they could very well hold!
Comdoll power, baby! Just like Happy Pip’s other comdolls, traders went gaga for the Loonie yesterday on a broad-based Greenback selling and a bullish black crack report from the markets. USD/CAD finished its back-to-back fall with a 64-pip slide, capping the day at .9598 after hitting an intraday low of .9578.
Canada’s economic boards were empty yesterday, so U.S. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke alone held the market spotlight during the U.S. trading session. In his statement, he bluntly admitted that the Fed had underestimated the sluggishness of the U.S. economic recovery, and suggested that the Fed is willing to cough up more financial stimulus if necessary. As it turned out, investors interpreted “if necessary” as “soon”.
Of course, the U.S. crude oil inventories report also fueled (pun intended) the bulls’ rally yesterday when the federal Energy Information Administration surprisingly showed a 3.1 million-barrel decline in crude oil stockpiles last week.
Given that the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, actually reported a rise in stockpiles early this week, the surprising data spurred on an oil futures rally. Brent crude oil on the ICE Futures Europe exchange went up to $118.78 a barrel.
If you’ve read the best forex education site in Pipsville, you would know that the Loonie is highly correlated with oil prices as oil is one of Canada’s main exports.
USD/CAD moved sideways yesterday as the pair struggled to break below the .9550 minor psychological support. At the end of the day, USD/CAD settled 5 pips below the .9600 mark. Will the Loonie be able to find a clearer direction today or will it be stuck in the same range?
Canada’s economic schedule was empty yesterday, leaving USD/CAD at the mercy of risk sentiment and economic data from the U.S. However, U.S. reports printed mixed results, which was probably why USD/CAD simply consolidated. Aside from that, Ben Bernanke’s speech yesterday, which included a retraction of his previous statement about QE3, helped put an end to the U.S. dollar selloff.
Today, only the manufacturing sales report is on Canada’s economic schedule. The report could print a 0.2% decline for May, smaller than the 1.3% drop seen the previous month. Keep an eye out for the release at 12:30 pm GMT.
Despite the negative manufacturing sales report, the Loonie was able to post to gain some ground over the Greenback yesterday. USD/CAD was sitting at .9543 by the end of the U.S. trading session, a 66 pips lower from its opening price during the Asian session.
The manufacturing sales report disappointingly came in with a -0.8% figure. According to the raw data, the decline was mainly the result of the slide in non-durable goods sales like food, petroleum, coal, and chemical products.
Fortunately, data from the U.S. weren’t any better. The U.S. consumer price index, consumer sentiment surveys, and industrial production report all failed to meet expectations, helping the Loonie edge higher against the Greenback.
This week, Canada’s economic calendar presents a couple of important events.
The first one is the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision. It is widely expected that the bank will keep rates unchanged at 1.0%, so pay attention instead to the accompanying statement. If the central bank hints at a rate hike soon it could be very bullish for the Loonie, especially since the market is expecting a dovish statement.
On Friday, watch out for the country’s consumer price index and retail sales report. The CPI is expected to show a 0.2% decline, while the core version of the report that excludes volatile items such as food and alcohol is expected to remain flat. Retail sales, on the other hand, is predicted to have declined by 0.3%, opposite the 0.3% gain seen the month before.