The Loonie finally hit the brakes yesterday to end the dollar’s winning streak at three. USD/CAD closed the day 7 pips below its opening price at 1.0396. Will it extend its gains in today’s trading?
That would probably depend on the BOC. If Forex Gump is right, we’ll probably see the Loonie give up more pips to the dollar when the statement is announced at 1:00 pm GMT. According to his Piponomics article, the central bank was pretty hawkish in its previous meeting but the degree of aggressiveness might be toned down this time around because recent data from Canada showed signs of weakness.
But that’s just my two cents. Who knows, a not-so-hawkish BOC statement may already be priced in and we could see the Loonie rally.
Also be sure to keep tabs on the building permits report due at 12:30 pm GMT. The number of permits issued for May is seen to show a 0.3% contraction. A better-than-expected figure may also help the Loonie rally, so be sure you don’t miss it!
Yesterday marked the Loonie’s second straight victory against the Greenback as demand for the Canadian currency kept USD/CAD from rising above the 1.0400 resistance zone. With help from the BOC rate decision, sellers were able to push the pair another 17 pips down to 1.0379.
Though the BOC’s decision to keep rates unchanged at 1.00% came as no surprise, the fact that it expressed its openness to remove stimulus caught markets a bit off guard! Many thought the BOC would tone down its hawkishness in light of recent signs of weakness in Canada. After all, oil prices have been declining, Canadian equities have been tanking, and exports have been suffering as well.
To be fair, Canadian policymakers did acknowledge these threats and several others, such as the European crisis and weak inflation. But according to them, the economy’s spare capacity gives them room to withdraw stimulus.
In other news, the building permits report for April came in as a huge disappointment, showing a 5.2% decline instead of a decrease of just 0.3%. Apparently, the big drop was a result of “lower construction intentions” in Ontario.
No more reports to follow in Canada today. In the meantime, keep track of risk sentiment. Remember, risk aversion is the Loonie’s enemy! Good luck and happy pipping, fellas!
With risk appetite making a nice comeback, comdolls like the Canadian dollar made a sweet rally up the charts yesterday. USD/CAD broke through key support to finish 100 pips lower at 1.0279.
For today, we’ve got the Ivey PMI headed our way at 2:00 pm GMT. Word on the street is that the index will print at 53.5, marking a decent improvement from the last month’s reading of 52.7. If the report comes in better-than-expected, it could give the Canadian dollar another boost up the charts.
That said, keep in mind that the Loonie is susceptible to the whims of risk sentiment. Yesterday’s price action is proof of that! Make sure you keep an eye out for developments else, especially in the euro zone!
Is that a doji on USD/CAD’s daily chart I see? Why, yes it is! The shifting market sentiment caused USD/CAD to move all over the place yesterday! At first, USD/CAD fell, as China announced that it would be cutting rates by 25 basis points. Then, once the U.S. trading session rolled along, the pair surged higher, as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke did not affirm QE3. USD/CAD ended the day at 1.0278, just one pip lower from its Asian session opening price.
In other news, the Ivey purchasing managers’ index exceeded market forecast. It came in at with a reading of 60.5, significantly higher than the 53.5 initially predicted.
Today will be a big day for the Loonie as Canada is going to release its employment report at 12:30 pm GMT. The market expects it to show that 10,000 people (net) were added to the workforce and that the unemployment rate remained at 7.3%.
The trade balance and the housing starts report will also be published at the same time. The trade balance is slated to show a 49.4 billion CAD deficit, which is slightly lower than the previous month’s 51.8 billion CAD deficit. Meanwhile, the housing starts report is anticipated to print 226,000.
What a crazy end to the week for the Loonie! After It looked like it was heading for new highs, USD/CAD came tumbling down late in Friday’s New York session and eventually closed at 1.0270, 8 pips below its opening price.
The Loonie was able to buckle poor economic data last Friday, as everything basically printed in the red.
Employment data disappointed, as only 7,700 jobs were added to the economy over the past month, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 7.3%. Not only was this less than the projected 10,000 increase, but it was also way off from 58,200 jobs added that we saw last month. Could the Great White North be following Uncle Sam’s lead in terms of deteriorating labor market conditions?
In other news, housing starts and trade balance figures were also dismal. Housing starts printed an annualized pace of 211,000, which was slower than the 226,000 expectation. Meanwhile, Canada posted a trade deficit of 400 million CAD, worse than the anticipated surplus of 200 million CAD for April.
These data could give the Bank of Canada more reason to take a more aggressive stance towards monetary policy. Considering that other central banks have appeared to lean towards more easing measures, more weakness in the Canadian economy could prompt our homies over at the BOC to follow suit.
No biggies on tap over the next couple of days, but make sure you keep an eye out for risk sentiment. As I always say, you never know what might happen, and sentiment can always change on a dime, so stay on your toes!
USD/CAD’s weekend gap just got filled! Now what? Risk aversion weighed on the higher-yielding Canadian dollar and oil prices yesterday, but will this market behavior carry on? Take a look at what’s in store for the Loonie today.
Canada didn’t release any economic figures yesterday, which was probably why the Loonie was so sensitive to risk sentiment. It turns out the markets weren’t too happy about the news of a Spanish bailout as they worried that history would repeat itself, eventually resulting in more speculation that countries would be exiting the euro zone.
There are no reports on Canada’s schedule for today, which means that the Loonie could still be at the mercy of risk sentiment for today’s trading sessions. Make sure you keep close tabs on any updates from the euro zone, particularly from Spain, to figure out whether we’d see another safe-haven rally or not. Good luck!
Not so fast, Greenback! Thanks to unwinding of short positions and bullish news for oil, the Loonie was able to pare some of its intraweek losses against the Greenback. USD/CAD fell by 47 pips to 1.0257 after hitting an intraday high of 1.0326. What’s in store for the Loonie this week?
The economic board is light in Canada today as there won’t be any reports released (again). This means that you gotta pay extra attention on risk sentiment as well as oil price action! If you remember, Canada is one of the world’s largest oil producers, so oil price movements tend to affect the Loonie. And with the OPEC meetings only less than a day away, you can bet your neighbor’s cat that there’s going to be volatility!
Good luck trading today, kids!
Without any economic data from Canada, it seemed that the Loonie got bullied in yesterday’s trading. USD/CAD closed the day higher in yesterday’s trading at 1.0292, up 26 pips from its opening price of 1.0266.
Disappointing reports from the U.S. as well as elevated concerns about the euro zone might have dampened market sentiment and kept the higher-yielding Loonie from rallying.
With that said and given that only a couple of low tier reports are scheduled from Canada today, I won’t be surprised to see the Loonie falls victim to market sentiment again.
At 12:30 pm GMT, the NHPI for April will be released and it is anticipated to show that the selling price of new homes grew by 0.4%. The capacity utilization rate will also be on tap, eyed to come in at 80.9%.
Better-than-expected figures could provide the Loonie with support on the charts and so can risk appetite. So make sure you keep an ear out for news reports that could give investors more reason to seek higher-yielding assets!
Risk appetite seemed to pick up slightly yesterday, allowing the Loonie to erase its recent losses and jump ahead of the dollar. By the end of the day, USD/CAD was trading at 1.0237, down 55 pips from its opening price.
It seems that even with bond yields soaring to new highs, risk aversion didn’t sweep through the markets and sink higher-yielding currencies yesterday. I think traders are still being cautious and are waiting for the weekend to pass as the Greek election comes to an end.
For today, we’ve got second tier data on tap in the form of manufacturing sales figures at 12:30 pm GMT. Word on the street is that sales picked up by 0.5% last month, which would be a decent follow-up to the 1.9% rise we saw the previous month.
To be honest though, I’m not sure we’ll see too much movement in today’s trading, but nevertheless, make sure to stay on your toes as you never know what might drive the markets!
Despite weaker than expected economic data from Canada, the Loonie was able to chalk up another day of gains against the Greenback on Friday and USD/CAD even gapped lower over the weekend. Will the Canadian dollar be able to hold on to its recent gains?
Last Friday, Canada released its April manufacturing sales report which printed a 0.8% decline. This was significantly weaker than the projected 0.5% uptick and the previous month’s 1.5% increase, reflecting a downturn in Canadian manufacturing activity.
However, talks of QE3 from the Fed dampened demand for the U.S. dollar, which enabled the Loonie to end Friday on a positive note.
Today, only the foreign securities report is due from Canada and it is expected to show a rebound from -2.08 billion CAD in March to 3.41 billion CAD in April. A higher than expected figure would reflect stronger demand for Canadian assets, which would be good for the Loonie. Make sure you keep an eye out for the actual release at 12:30 pm GMT.
Later on, Canada will release its wholesale sales figure on Tuesday and its retail sales data on Thursday while Friday has Canada’s CPI reports on tap. Don’t forget to do your research and stay tuned to my daily commentaries if you plan to trade these releases!
The Loonie was unable to hold its ground against the safe haven Greenback yesterday as a wave of risk aversion hit the markets. Apparently, the market’s focus has turned to Spain again as the yields for its 10-year bonds climbed above the 7% handle. USD/CAD closed the day at 1.0242, 33 pips higher from its Asian session opening price.
The only economic report that was released yesterday is the Foreign Securities Purchases. It measures the total value of domestic stocks, bonds, and other financial instruments bought by foreigners. It came in with a 10.20 billion CAD surplus, more than three times the expected amount.
Today, only the wholesales report is due. It is slated to show a 0.4% gain, similar to the increase seen the month before. The wholesale sales report may not have a strong impact on price action, but the G20 meetings, which will begin today, could produce a lot of volatility.
SCOOOOOORE!!! After lollygagging around the 1.0200 support, USD/CAD finally broke down and capped the day at 1.0182. So what exactly spurred the Loonie bulls on?
The better-than-expected wholesale sales data is a good start. The report printed a 1.5% gain in April, which is a lot stronger than the 0.3% gain we saw in March.
And then there’s also the optimism from the euro region, which boosted high-yielding currencies across the board. Apparently, traders believe that the G20 meeting would yield concrete plans from the leaders. Watch for the official announcement if you’re one of them optimistic investors!
Other factors that might have spurred the Loonie bulls’ momentum is the recovery in oil prices and speculations of an Operation Twist 3 from the Fed. Read all about it in the USD part of my writeup!
No data is expected to be released today, so make sure you pay extra attention to the reports released from the other major regions! We never know when a report or announcement hits risk sentiment!
The Loonie had a tough day on the charts yesterday as falling oil prices and a disappointing FOMC statement kept it from forging a new high against the Greenback. After a bit of choppy trading in the London and New York sessions, USD/CAD ended the day at 1.0193, up 11 pips on the day.
We didn’t get any big stories from Canada itself, but the Loonie still managed to see its fair share of swings.
For one, oil prices slid sharply late in the New York session. Keep in mind, oil happens to be Canada’s primary export, so the Loonie tends to weaken when oil prices drop.
Meanwhile, across the border, the FOMC disappointed the markets as it failed to announce another round of easing and instead, opted to just expand Operation Twist.
Today, we finally have something meaty coming from Canada as it’s due to print its latest retail sales stats. Survey says headline retail sales probably grew 0.3% in April, slightly lower than the 0.4% uptick we saw in March. This is expected to result in a core retail sales growth of 0.2%, which is double the increase that we saw the previous month.
Party’s over, boys! Thanks to weak economic data and risk aversion in markets, the Loonie pared back its intraweek gains against the Greenback. USD/CAD shot up by a neat 100 pips and capped the day at 1.0293. What the heck happened?
China isn’t the only one to blame! Though a manufacturing PMI report in China hinted at a possible slowdown in commodity demand, a slide in oil prices and weak Canadian data also played their part in the Loonie’s drop.
Canada’s retail sales data failed to follow the wholesale sales’ optimistic figures as it printed a 0.5% drop for the month of April after showing a 0.4% gain in March. Even the core figure disappointed with a 0.3% decline after it printed a 0.3% improvement in the previous month. Unfortunately, the dismal consumer spending figures are now leading investors to believe that the BOC might put off its interest rate hike plans. Yikes!
Will Canada’s inflation numbers help? Canada’s CPI reports scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT are expected to print a bit softer than April’s numbers, but if inflation comes in at a faster pace, then we might see the Loonie weaken further against the Greenback.
USD/CAD consolidated below the 1.0300 major psychological resistance for almost an entire day last Friday before it broke down and eventually closed at 1.0246. The pair gapped up over the weekend as it opened at 1.0267. Aside from a potential gap fill, what else is in store for the Loonie this week?
Canada’s CPI figures for May came in weaker than expected as the core figure showed a mere 0.2% uptick while the headline figure printed a 0.1% decline in price levels. Despite this, the Loonie was still able to pocket a few gains against the Greenback as traders cashed in on their recent safe-haven positions.
There aren’t any major reports on today’s schedule so USD/CAD might be in for another day of consolidation. Don’t forget though that the U.S. is set to release its new home sales figure, which is expected to rise from 343K to 347K. With dollar pairs moving to the tune of risk sentiment these days, a weaker than expected figure could give USD/CAD a boost while a higher than expected reading could trigger a selloff.
Canada’s economic agenda is virtually empty for the rest of the week, except for Friday when they are set to print their monthly GDP reading. Make sure you check out the rest of my economic roundup to see which reports could move risk sentiment!
With no data being released, USD/CAD traded to the beat of risk aversion. Unfortunately for the Loonie bulls, risk aversion took its turn at the top of the hill yesterday, allowing the dollar bulls to edge higher. USD/CAD traded as high as 1.0319 before settling at 1.0291, up 34 pips on the day.
Still no data lined up from the Great White North today, so make sure you keep an eye out for any developments from other countries. More specifically, be on the lookout for any news coming out from the euro zone as this will most likely dictate trading flows this week.
Hooray for the Loonie! Despite the lack of hard-hitting reports, Canadian currency was able to sneak in some gains against the Greenback yesterday as USD/CAD closed 52 pips down from its 1.0292 open price. Will it be able to hold on to its gains today?
Canada’s economic schedule was empty yesterday but it seems that the Loonie was able to benefit from weaker than expected U.S. CB consumer confidence data, which triggered a slight dollar selloff during the US session.
Today, Canada’s agenda is still empty, which suggests that USD/CAD could be influenced by U.S. data and risk sentiment yet again. Bear in mind that Uncle Sam is set to release its pending home sales and durable goods orders figures starting 12:30 pm GMT so it should be an exciting U.S. session for the Loonie!
The Loonie stumbled against the dollar yesterday as general market sentiment favored the safe havens once again. With the European Union summit just around the corner, investor confidence is low and few believe anything will be resolved. As a result, USD/CAD crept up from its opening price of 1.0240 to end the day at 1.0255.
No news from Canada yesterday, so Loonie price action was mostly dictated by risk sentiment. Unfortunately, the markets weren’t in a risk-taking mood and chose to stay away from the comdolls.
Once again, the newswires will be silent in Canada, but we do have plenty of potential market movers. Aside from the release of the U.S. final GDP report, the EU economic summit is scheduled to begin today. Y’all should tune in and listen closely for any sentiment-changing announcements!
The Loonie was no match for the dollar in yesterday’s trading. USD/CAD bottomed at 1.0232 and skyrocketed all the way up to its intraday high of 1.0363. It then closed the day 75 pips above its opening price at 1.0330.
Aside from the lack of any significant progress from the EU Summit, the drop in oil prices also weighed down on the Loonie. Remember that the commodity is Canada’s biggest export and the Loonie tends to follow its price action.
We don’t have anything on the docket for the comdoll today, so be sure you keep tabs on the EU Summit as well as oil as they could continue to dictate the Loonie’s fate on the charts.
Pure awesome sauce! The Loonie was in hot demand last Friday as risk appetite and a stronger-than-expected GDP report boosted interest in the Canadian currency. As a result, USD/CAD dove 148 pips and greeted the weekend at 1.0181. Will we see more of the same this July?
The comdolls benefited a lot from Last Friday’s extremely strong round of risk taking, as commodities saw huge gains on the charts. The risk switch was flipped on after European leaders drew up plans to stabilize Spanish and Italian bond markets and establish a region-wide banking union.
But the Loonie’s rally wasn’t all because of progress in the euro zone… Canada had a hand in it as well! Bullishness for the Canadian currency picked up strongly after the April GDP report printed an upside surprise. Apparently, after expanding by 0.1% in March, the economy grew 0.3%, beating forecasts which only called for a growth of 0.2%. Aww yeah!
The economic calendar will be light for most of this week as Canada will be celebrating a bank holiday today and won’t be publishing any major reports until Friday. However, the last day of the week may turn out to be an explosive one as Canada will be unloading a whole set of red flags.
The building permits report, employment data, and the Ivey PMI are all due on Friday, and together, they may spell huge moves on Loonie markets, so get ready to see some volatility when Friday rolls around!