It was a quiet day from the Great White North, as USD/CAD pretty much just consolidated. USD/CAD traded within a range of just 46 pips and by the end of the day closed its opening price of 1.0167.
We could be in for another tight day of trading, as we’ve got no hardcore reports headed our way from both Canada and its neighbour down south, the United States. For now, keep an eye out for any developments from the euro zone as this could dictate risk sentiment over the next couple of days.
Thanks to the unexpected rise in oil prices, the Canadian dollar turned out to be one of the best performing currencies yesterday. USD/CAD, after trading above 1.0200 for the majority of June, finally gave in to the bears and tumbled to its lowest level in more than a month. USD/CAD closed the day at 1.0126, 41 pips lower than its opening price.
After falling below the significant 80.00 level last week, crude oil is currently trading at 87.35. It appears that traders believe that stimulus measures being implemented by central banks all over the world will stoke demand for commodities and growth-centric currencies like the Canadian dollar the most.
Since there are no major economic data scheduled from Canada and the U.S. today due to Independence Day celebrations, the Loonie could simply trade sideways today. Be careful of sudden bursts of volatility during the U.S. trading session though. The market will be less liquid than usual, which means price can be moved more easily!
Zzzzzz…. With U.S. traders off celebrating Independence Day, we were treated with an absolutely boring day on USD/CAD. The pair traded within a range of just 23 pips, eventually closing just a few pips above its opening price at 1.0131. With traders coming back from the holiday, could we be in for some nice moves today?
Nothing on tap from Canada today, but we could be in for some wild moves as traders re-establish their positions. Make sure you hit up my U.S. commentary for the 411 on some reports that could rock USD/CAD today!
The Loonie saw its fair share of wild swings yesterday, but when all was said and done, it ended just a few pips weaker on the day. USD/CAD had dropped to as low as 1.0100, only to come rallying back up the charts to tap a high of 1.0158. However, the market soon calmed down to rest 12 pips above its opening price at 1.0143.
Not surprisingly, Loonie price action looked a lot like oil price action yesterday. Oil prices had risen to almost $89 a barrel before it slid back to end the day below $87 a barrel. Of course, by now we all know that this strong positive correlation between the Loonie and oil can be traced to the fact that oil is Canada’s largest export.
But enough about yesterday! Let’s focus our attention on what lies ahead!
At 12:30 pm GMT, Canada will release a couple of hard-hitting reports. Building permits data for May will finally be available, and most believe we’ll see an increase of 0.7% following April’s 5.2% slide.
Also, we’ll take a look at much-awaited employment data. Survey says 5,100 jobs were added last month, in addition to the 7,700 jobs added in May. However, this is expected to have no impact on the unemployment rate, which is predicted to stay at 8.3%. Now remember, these reports will come out at the same the U.S. NFP is due, so expect crazy volatility on USD/CAD!
To wrap up our week, at 2:00 pm GMT we’ll take a peek at the Ivey PMI, whose reading is expected to slide from 60.5 to 55.4. Weaker-than-expected readings from any of these reports could trigger another strong Loonie sell-off, so don’t you dare miss 'em, homies!
The Loonie got real comfortable in the comdoll bandwagon last Friday as risk aversion dominated price action. USD/CAD shot up by 43 pips after hitting an intraday high of 1.0208! Does this mean that Canada’s economic reports didn’t factor in the move last Friday?
Well, not really. Canada’s unemployment rate dropped from 7.3% to 7.2% in June after 7,300 workers were given jobs. Take note that market geeks were only expecting an increase of around 5,100 new jobs for the month.
Even the building permits data should’ve made the Loonie bulls giddy when it showed a whopping 7.4% increase in May, which is a lot stronger than the 0.7% growth that analysts were looking for and the 4.4% decline we saw in April.
Unfortunately for the comdolls, the NFP report in the U.S. supported predictions of slower global economic growth. In fact, the theme dominated price action last Friday that high-yielding currencies in general didn’t stand a chance against the Greenback!
We’ll see if the Loonie bulls can hustle some muscle today when the BOC outlook survey is released at 2:30 pm GMT. The BOC has been hinting that it could hike interest rates soon, so watch closely for any hawkish remarks!
Unlike its comdoll homies, the Loonie got lucky yesterday and managed to sneak a win against the dollar. USD/CAD consolidated around the 1.0200 handle for the most part of the day, before closing 4 pips below its opening price at 1.0194.
The lack of economic reports from Canada left the Loonie trading sideways. But don’t worry! We have the Canadian housing starts report for June to sink our teeth into today. Due at 12:15 pm GMT, the report is seen to print at 203,000.
Also, be sure you keep tabs on China’s trade balance data too. Keep in mind that the Asian economy is one of Canada’s major trading partners. And so, good news from China could also translate to higher economic activity for Canada.
At 12:00 am GMT, the trade balance report is eyed to show that exports outpaced imports by 22.6 billion CNY in June.
The Loonie experienced a lot of pain yesterday as it was heavily sold-off against both the safe haven Greenback and the low-yielding yen. The Loonie gave up 32 pips to the Greenback and 41 pips to the yen.
It seems that investors remain pessimistic about the global economic outlook as the better-than-expected housing starts data failed to provide support for the Loonie. The report printed a 223,000 figure, which was much higher than the 203,000 forecast. Housing starts are considered as a leading indicator of economic health because new buildings usually lead to new jobs, contracts, etc.
Today, the only red flag on Canada’s forex calendar is the country’s trade balance. It is anticipated to show a 500 million CAD deficit. Last month, the deficit was only at 400 billion CAD. If the actual deficit turns out lower than predicted, we could see the Loonie recover some of its losses.
Consolidation is the name of the game! USD/CAD moved sideways around the 1.0200 mark, despite the top-tier releases from both U.S. and Canada. Will we see a breakout today?
Let’s start off by taking a quick look at the economic reports released yesterday. Canada’s trade balance came in weaker than expected as it showed a 0.8 billion CAD deficit instead of the estimated 0.5 billion CAD shortfall. On top of that, the previous figure was revised down from -0.4 billion CAD to -0.6 billion CAD, reflecting a larger gap between imports and exports. Now that can’t be too good for the Canadian economy considering how it’s heavily dependent on its export industry, yet this release wasn’t enough to push USD/CAD out of its current range.
Not even the much-awaited FOMC minutes made USD/CAD budge from consolidation as it showed that Fed members were still generally undecided when it comes to QE3. The minutes also revealed that the policymakers were considering other monetary policy easing tools other than an outright implementation of quantitative easing.
There aren’t any red flags on Canada’s schedule for today, which means that there’s a good chance the pair could stay stuck in its range. As always, stay on your toes for any updates from the euro zone since these could have a huge impact on market sentiment!
Yesterday, the Loonie turned out to be one of the few currencies that was able to stand up to the strength of the might Greenback. After giving up more than 70 pips to the Greenback early in the London session, the Loonie fought back and actually closed the New York trading session with a small but respectable 12-pip gain.
There was only one piece of data that was released from Canada, and that was the New House Price Index (NHPI). It showed that prices rose 0.3%, slightly higher than the 0.2% initially expected.
Canada’s economic skies are clear today as no market-moving events are scheduled to happen. This doesn’t mean that the Loonie won’t exhibit movement though, as there are a couple of high impact reports coming out from other major economies.
Bad Chinese data? No problem! Like its comdoll buddies, the Loonie gained pips against the Greenback last Friday. USD/CAD fell by another 49 pips to 1.0146 after hitting an intraday high at 1.0204. No data was printed from Canada, so what spurred on the Loonie bulls?
Well, it certainly helped that oil prices rose for the third day in a row. As one of the largest oil-producing countries, Canada stands to benefit from rising prices of black crack.
China also factored in the comdoll bulls’ good vibes when it printed a GDP growth of 7.6% for Q2. Okay, a three-year low for the data isn’t exactly good news, but the number just missed expectations of a 7.7% growth, so traders mostly shrugged it off. Besides, some analysts believe that the PBoC had already addressed the GDP problem with its triple stimulus action in the previous week.
Only the foreign securities purchase at 12:30 pm GMT is scheduled for release today, but keep an eye out for the BOC’s interest rate statement tomorrow at 1:00 pm GMT and its press conference on Wednesday at 3:15 pm GMT. I hear that the BOC won’t be as hawkish as it was last month, so stay at the edge of your seats for these announcements!
Guess who was left out in yesterday’s big risk rally? That’s right, the Loonie! With Loonie traders sitting on the sidelines in anticipation of today’s big rate decision, USD/CAD saw little action and closed 11 pips above its opening price at 1.0147.
It seems the markets didn’t want to place bets on the Loonie ahead of the Bank of Canada rate statement. Remember, in its last rate statement, the BOC kept rates unchanged but also hinted at the possibility of withdrawing stimulus from the economy.
Since then, Canada has posted some pretty upbeat employment figures. But is this enough to push the central bank to tighten its policy? Who knows! Some believe that the BOC may take a more neutral stance in its rate statement to address the crummy global economic outlook. But if the BOC unleashes a few hawkish words later, it could result in a strong Loonie rally, so be sure to tune in at 1:00 am GMT!
The Loonie joined its comdoll buddies on the risk appetite train yesterday when a dollar-bearish news propelled commodity-related currencies higher in the charts. USD/CAD tipped a high at 1.0170 before it closed 21 pips below its open price.
Okay, maybe the Bank of Canada also played a role in the Loonie’s rally. Yesterday the central bank decided to keep its rates at 1.00%, downgrade its 2012 and 2013 growth forecasts by a bit, and upgrade its 2014 predictions.
What caught the investors’ attention though, is that the BOC was still more hawkish than expected. See, analysts had believed that with other major central banks like the ECB, BOE, and PBoC considering more stimulus, the BOC would also reign in its hawkish feathers.
But the BOC just can’t be tamed! It retained its previous stance on stimulus, saying that it can still be contained. And for some market geeks, that means interest rate hikes!
Maybe we’ll know more about what the BOC’s stance on stimulus today when the BOC monetary policy report and BOC press conference are scheduled at 2:30 pm GMT and 3:15 pm GMT respectively. No other economic data will be released, so make sure you’re at the edge of your seats when the BOC takes center stage!
That’s two in a row for the Loonie! The Canadian currency chalked up another day of wins against the Greenback as an upbeat economic outlook from the BOC provided the comdoll additional support. Will the Loonie extend its winning streak to three?
The BOC monetary policy report showed that Canadian central bank officials believed that it’s appropriate to withdraw some of their monetary stimulus soon. Considering how other central banks are very concerned about their own economies and are even implementing additional easing measures, this optimistic assessment from the BOC is definitely a reason for the Loonie to party!
Canada won’t be releasing any economic reports today, which means that the Loonie might carry on with yesterday’s rallies. Be mindful though, that the U.S. is set to release a few top-tier data today and that these could have an impact on risk sentiment. Drop by my U.S. commentary to see what you should watch out for!
Make that three in a row! Thanks to a nice risk rally, the Canadian dollar edged higher, as USD/CAD closed at 1.0078, 29 pips lower for the day. Will the comdoll continue to dominate or will the Greenback make a comeback to end the week?
Just like its comdoll siblings, the Canadian dollar benefitted from a nice run by commodities yesterday. A rise in wholesale sales also helped, as they came in better than expected, growing at 0.9% last month instead of the 0.2% forecast.
For today, we’ve got inflation data on tap in the form of the consumer price index due at 12:30 pm GMT. The headline CPI report is projected to show a decline in prices of 0.2%, while core CPI is estimated to print a 0.1% drop. If these reports do indicate that inflation remains subdued, it could give the Bank of Canada more leeway with regards to interest rate policy.
Double whammy for the Loonie! Weak Canadian economic data combined with a drop in oil prices left the Canadian dollar unable to sustain its gains against the Greenback last Friday. What happened and can we expect another Loonie selloff this week?
Canada printed a 0.4% decline in its core CPI for June, weaker than the estimated 0.1% drop, while its headline CPI figure also came in at -0.4%. This marks the headline figure’s second consecutive monthly drop, suggesting that inflationary pressures are weak in Canada and that it might not be the best time for a BOC rate hike just yet.
There are no reports on Canada’s schedule for today so, if you’re planning to trade the Loonie, I suggest you read up on possible outcomes for Canada’s retail sales reports due tomorrow 12:30 pm GMT. Both the headline and core figure are expected to post rebounds, which could revive talks of BOC tightening and trigger Loonie buying again.
No other reports are due from Canada for the rest of the week so make sure you also keep close tabs on risk sentiment to figure out where this higher-yielding comdoll could be headed. Good luck!
And the bleeding continues! The Loonie continued to weaken against the Greenback as traders pushed USD/CAD higher up the charts. The pair gapped up 16 pips to start the week, but then continued trading higher until it ended the day 26 above its opening price at 1.0168. When will it stop?
No news from Canada yesterday, so the markets had little reason to stop dumping it. However, if today’s retail sales report (due at 12:30 pm GMT) prints an upside surprise, it may turn the tides in favor of the Loonie once again.
The headline sales figure is expected to print a 0.4% surge in sales for May to undo the 0.5% slide in April. Meanwhile, the core figure is anticipated to come in at 0.1%, up from 0.3% in April.
Keep your eyes on this one, fellas! If it prints highly upbeat results, it could serve as a strong reason for the BOC to withdraw stimulus from the economy!
Traders didn’t go loco for the Loonie yesterday in the face of weaker than expected retail sales and risk aversion. USD/CAD traded higher after opening at 1.0169 to finish the day at 1.0203.
Data released yesterday revealed that consumer spending only grew by 0.3% in May and fell short of the market’s forecast by 0.1%. However, excluding volatile items, the core retail sales figure printed at 0.5%, higher than the 0.1% consensus.
Some analysts say that the disappointing headline figure might have weighed down the Loonie because the BOC had been banking on stronger consumer spending when it made its last rate decision. A lot of them wonder if the disappointing figure for May would become a game-changer for the central bank.
Our forex calendar is blank for reports from Canada today. However, make sure you’re on your toes for reports from the euro zone as market sentiment also played a role in the Loonie’s price action in yesterday’s trading. Be careful, ayt?
Thanks to a bit of good news from the euro zone, the Loonie got a rare taste of victory against the Greenback. It gained 50 solid pips against its American counterpart as USD/CAD slipped to 1.0153.
With no major reports on tap, yesterday’s Loonie rally had nothing to do with Canada and everything to do with risk appetite! Reports from the euro zone that the ECB may consider granting the ESM a banking license stoked the markets’ appetite for high-yielding assets, giving the Loonie and its fellow comdolls a boost on the charts.
Whether or not the Loonie will be able to hold on to its gains will depend on the markets risk sentiment today, because - surprise, surprise - Canada won’t be publishing any reports again! So in the meantime, keep your eyes locked on the euro zone and the U.S.!
Market participants were all about risk-taking yesterday as ECB President Mario Draghi said that the central bank would do everything within its power to protect the euro. The Loonie, as a result, leapt higher than the safe haven dollar and ended the U.S. trading session 56 pips higher from its opening price. The Loonie marked its second straight day of gains.
Other financial instruments reacted the same way. Euro zone bond yields have fallen, with Span’s 10-year bond yields back below the critical 7% level. The market could possibly be overreacting as euro zone’s debt problems haven’t really gone away.
No major news reports came out yesterday, and Canada’s economic cupboard will be completely empty again today. This means that the Loonie’s price action will be most likely be driven by events happening in other major economies like the U.S. and the euro zone.
1… 2… 3! Last Friday, USD/CAD fell for the third straight day in a row as oil prices continue to climb higher. Speculation that the Fed would ease soon also added downward pressure to USD/CAD. The pair, which had begun the day at 1.0096, closed the U.S. trading session at 51 pips lower at 1.0045.
No major data was released last Friday and no report is scheduled to come again today. We will see the country’s monthly GDP report tomorrow though. It’s expected to show a 0.2% growth, slightly lower than the 0.3% rise from the previous month. Higher-than-expected figures are usually seen as bullish for the Loonie.
Also watch out for data coming out of other major economies, especially those from the U.S. and the euro zone. The non-farm payrolls that will be published on Friday, for instance, will most likely have a strong impact on the Loonie’s price action.