The Loonie traded in a perfect “U” pattern yesterday as it had fallen early in the day but recovered all of its losses before it closed for the day. USD/CAD opened and closed the day at .9766.
No major economic data was released yesterday but oil prices were slightly softer. Oil went down $1.10/barrel during the day to close the U.S. trading session at 91.95/barrel.
Today, the only major economic data from Canada is the retail sales report at 12:30 pm GMT. The headline figure is expected to be at 0.2% while the core version that excludes volatile items is predicted to come in at 0.3%. Last month, both the headline and the core version showed a 0.4% decline.
Let’s see if the positive expectations will be able to help the Loonie recover its losses from the last couple of days.
Check out the .9800 area holdin’ like a boss for USD/CAD! Thanks to better than expected Canadian retail sales data, USD/CAD kept its head below that major psychological level and closed at its day open price. Will .9800 still hold today?
Even though risk was off during yesterday’s trading, the Loonie managed to hold its ground against the U.S. dollar after Canada printed strong retail sales data for July. Headline retail sales rose by 0.7% while core retail sales increased by 0.7% during the month, and this rebound was more than enough to erase the declines seen last June.
There are no economic reports due from Canada today so make sure you watch risk sentiment carefully to figure out where the Loonie could be headed. If risk stays off, there could be a chance we’d see USD/CAD break above .9800!
Ooh, that burns! The Loonie got another beating from the Greenback yesterday, allowing USD/CAD to make a clean break above the .9800 major psychological resistance. The pair closed at .9852 after reaching a high of .9861.
There were no reports released from Canada yesterday but weaker than expected data from its North American neighbor, the United States, was more than enough to trigger a Loonie selloff. As it turns out, the U.S. is still miles away from achieving a recovery in the housing market at shown by its new home sales release.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil inventories showed signs of normalizing as the report showed a deficit of 2.4 million barrels after shooting up by 8.5 million barrels last week. Despite this, the U.S. Energy Information Administration says that the total stockpiles amount to 365.2 million barrels, which is way above the upper limit of the usual range at this time of the year. With an oversupply of oil still being an issue, oil prices dipped and dragged the oil-related Loonie down in the process.
There are no reports due from Canada today, which means that the Loonie could be extra sensitive to risk sentiment again. Don’t forget to check out the U.S. red flags on today’s schedule to figure out whether risk will be on or off for the day!
For the first time in four days, Loonie bulls were able to take control of USD/CAD. Thanks to improved risk appetite, traders gobbled up the Canadian currency, sending USD/CAD down 45 pips to completely erase the previous day’s losses and end the day at .9808.
Thanks to Spain’s budget plans and China’s huge liquidity injection, the market’s appetite for high-yielding currencies (such as the Loonie) was strong. It didn’t even matter that Canada didn’t have any reports for the markets yesterday!
But today is a different story as it’s scheduled to roll out its July GDP report, which most believe will show a growth of 0.1%, down from June’s 0.2% expansion. Look for this report to trigger another round of Loonie buying if it posts better-than-expected results!
Out of the way, Loonie sellers comin’ through! With the markets still acting on risk aversion, USD/CAD ended up erasing a good chunk of its gains from Thursday as it rose 22 pips on the day. And it didn’t stop there! Over the weekend, the pair gapped up from last Friday’s close at .9831 to start the month at .9839!
Even though Canadian GDP came in stronger than expected in July, it wasn’t enough to keep the Loonie afloat. The economy clocked in a growth of 0.2%, which was double the figure of the median forecast. Taking a look at the details, we see that manufacturing and retail sales picked up, but mining and construction edged lower in the month.
Today, we only have the RMPI on tap. The index, which measures the change in raw materials purchased by manufacturers, is expected to print a reading of 1.4% up from 0.9%.
This report isn’t normally known to have strong, lasting effects on Loonie price action, but don’t worry because later in the week we have much more weighty releases coming out.
On Thursday, we’ll take a look at the Ivey PMI, seen at 59.0 from 62.5. And to end the week on Friday, building permits data (expected to show a decline of 0.7% following the previous month’s decrease of 2.3%) and much-awaited employment figures will be available.
Is USD/CAD’s .9850 handle strong or what? For the fourth trading day in a row, the pair was unable to break above the major psychological level as risk appetite tempered the Loonie bears yesterday. USD/CAD reached an intraday high of .9854 before it capped the day at .9798.
Aside from better-than-expected reports from the other major economies, it might have also helped the Loonie bulls that Canada printed positive news on its own. Though the industrial price index slipped by 0.1% in August and July’s figures were revised down to a 0.6% decrease, the raw materials price index came in at 3.4%. That’s a heck of a lot higher than its 0.8% growth reading in July!
The economic board is empty in Canada today, so I’m betting my neighbor’s cat that risk sentiment and oil prices will most likely dictate the Loonie’s price action today. Pay special attention to the Spanish news from the euro zone, as well as any whispers of a hard landing in the commodity-loving Chinese economy. After all, these news could very well dictate risk sentiment today!
Ooh, that burns! The Loonie was unable to hold on to its recent gains against the Greenback as USD/CAD closed in the green yesterday. The pair dipped to a low of .9811 but managed to rally and close at .9844.
Canada didn’t release any economic reports yesterday, leaving the Loonie at the mercy of risk sentiment. Unfortunately for the commodity currency, its fellow comdoll (AUD) got hit by an RBA interest rate cut during the Asian session. This had market participants speculating that the BOC might be forced to retreat from its hawkish stance or even join the easing bandwagon soon!
There are no reports due from Canada today so make sure you take note of U.S. economic reports if you’re trading USD/CAD. The ADP non-farm employment change and ISM non-manufacturing PMI are on tap for today so stay on your toes during those releases!
With risk aversion swaying the markets, USD/CAD broke higher and set new highs. The pair topped out at .9885 before settling at .9980, up 37 pips from its opening price. Could we see more of the same today?
For today, we’ve got the Ivey PMI report on tap at 2:00 pm GMT. Word on the street is that the index will print at 59.4, marking a slight decrease from last month’s reading of 62.5. This would indicate industry expansion, although at a slightly slower pace.
Take note though, that the last two releases have both printed better than expected. If today’s release gives us the same result, it may just help the Canadian dollar recuperate some of its losses from yesterday.
Way to go, Loonie! The Canadian currency cashed in some gains against the Greenback yesterday as USD/CAD dipped back to the .9800 handle. At the end of the day, the Loonie was able to outpace the Greenback by 75 pips as USD/CAD closed at .9805.
Canada’s Ivey PMI came in much better than expected for September at 60.4. Although this was slightly weaker than August’s 62.5 reading, the actual figure was higher than the forecast at 59.2. This indicates that Canada’s manufacturing sector continued to expand even if it did so at a slower pace during the month.
There are a bunch of red flags on Canada’s schedule today so better listen up! Canadian building permits and jobs data are due 1:30 pm GMT, along with the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, so it’s bound to be a volatile U.S. session for the Loonie.
Building permits are projected to drop by 0.7% in August, following a 2.3% decline in July. Canada’s employment change figure could come in at 11.7K for September, which would be weaker than the 34.3K increase in hiring seen last August. Still, this should be enough to keep their jobless rate steady at 7.3%. Bear in mind though that weaker than expected data might force the Loonie to return some of its recent gains.
As for the NFP report, I believe my buddy Forex Gump has got this thoroughly covered in his latest trading guide. Go on and check it out!
The Loonie followed up its big rally on Thursday with another winner as the markets’ risk appetite continued to fuel demand for the Canadian currency. After trading as low as .9735, USD/CAD greeted the weekend at .9789, 16 pips below its opening price.
Practically everything that could’ve gone the Loonie’s way went the Loonie’s way. First, the U.S. NFP triggered a broad-based case of risk taking.
Then on the domestic front, we saw another month’s worth of impressive employment data from Canada. Would you believe that a total of 52,100 jobs were added last month?! This figure was almost 5 times larger than the median forecast and is a solid follow up to the 34,300 jobs that were added the previous month.
In turn, this led the unemployment rate to rise from 7.3% to 7.4% as more workers returned to the workforce. No wonder the BOC has been so hawkish!
In other news, the building permits report printed a huge upside surprise of its own, showing a 7.9% increase amidst forecasts which called for a 0.7% decline. As it turns out, an increase in construction activity in the non-residential sector more than made up for a slight downturn in activity in the residential sector.
This week, we don’t have many major events to look forward to, especially since Canada will be celebrating Thanksgiving today. The only red flag is the trade balance report due on Thursday, and it’s expected to show a narrower deficit of 1.7 billion CAD. But until that report comes out, it looks as though we’ll have to trade the Loonie based on risk sentiment.
The Loonie sure knows a thing or two about being sneaky! It was trading lower against the dollar for the most part of the day before stepping up its game in the New York session. USD/CAD dropped from its intraday high of .9802 to close the day at .9770.
There weren’t any economic reports released yesterday from Canada as banks were closed for Thanksgiving. However, over in Asia, HSBC released China’s services PMI for September and the figure was enough to get traders to go loco on the comdolls.
The HSBC services PMI rebounded from its one-year low that it tapped in August at 52.0 and printed at 54.3 for September. Analysts say that the improvement in the reading reflects the pick-up in new businesses during the month.
We still don’t have anything on tap for the Loonie today. This probably means that the currency’s fate will continue to be dictated by market sentiment. With that said, make sure you’re on your toes for reports from the Loonie’s counterparts!
Even with oil prices surging yesterday, the Loonie couldn’t hold off the Greenback’s advances. As a result, USD/CAD found itself 15 pips higher at .9785 at the end of the day.
Yesterday’s housing starts data didn’t do much to fuel demand for the Loonie either. It printed a nice upside surprise, showing a reading of 220,000 last month. The markets were looking for housing starts to decline from 224,000 to 201,000, but apparently, the housing market isn’t doing as bad as everyone had expected!
If you plan on trading USD/CAD today, you’d better track risk sentiment because Canada won’t be publishing any reports. Good luck and happy trading, folks!
And the consolidation continues! USD/CAD was once again stuck within a range and failed to break off for any new highs or lows. The pair ended the day trading at .9807, just 21 pips above its opening price.
Finally, we’ll be getting some data from Canada today! Trade balance figures will be released at 12:30 pm GMT, with expectations being that a deficit of 1.8 billion CAD was posted in December. Take note that actual figure has been worse than expected the past seven releases, so there’s a good chance that today’s report may disappoint as well.
Thanks to improved risk appetite, the Loonie was able to trim its losses yesterday. The currency rallied against the Greenback, closing the U.S. trading session with a respectable 19-pip victory.
The Loonie’s gains were the result of positive data from both Canada and the U.S. In Canada, the trade balance came in significantly better than expected. It showed that the trade deficit for August was only 1.3 billion CAD, and not 1.8 billion CAD as predicted. Meanwhile, in the U.S. , the unemployment claims report smashed forecast and printed a 339,000 figure. The consensus was 368,000.
No major report coming out of Canada today, but the U.S. is set to publish some tier 1 reports. You can check out my U.S. economic roundup for more information.
With no data lined up, USD/CAD trading was as dull as the plot of Taken 2. USD/CAD stuck within a range of about 40 pips and eventually ended the day at .9793, just 5 pips above the day open.
Friday was a snoozefest but that could all change today when the Bank of Canada releases its business outlook survey at 2:30 pm GMT. Considering that the Fed, ECB, BOE, RBA, and BOJ (yes, FIVE central banks folks!) have all implemented some form of accommodative monetary policy over the past couple of months, it’ll be interesting to see how BOC officials take this all in and whether they are thinking of following in their comrades’ footsteps.
Take note that the BOC has been one of the more hawkish central banks and have actually considered RAISING rates in the past. Watch out for the tone of the report, as it may just reveal how optimistic or pessimistic the central bank is on the Canadian economy.
Without any top-tier economic report on tap from Canada, the Loonie was lost in the bear lair in yesterday’s trading. USD/CAD traded within Friday’s range before finishing the day at .9800, 15 pips above its opening price.
It also didn’t help that oil, Canada’s biggest export, continued to trade lower yesterday.
But fret not, Padawans! Today, a couple of reports are scheduled for the Loonie which could provide it with a clearer direction on the charts.
At 12:30 pm GMT, the amount of foreign securities purchases for August is seen to have totaled to 8.72 billion CAD. Meanwhile, manufacturing sales for the same month has been predicted at 0.3%.
Positive figures could allow the Loonie to trade higher so make sure you watch out for 'em!
Darn! The Loonie missed out on the comdoll rally yesterday despite the better-than-expected reports released from Canada. USD/CAD closed 68 pips higher than its open price after tipping an intraday high at .9879. What’s up with that?
Yesterday Canada’s foreign securities purchase came in at 6.90 billion CAD, which is somewhat higher than last month’s 6.67 billion CAD figure. The country’s manufacturing sales also should’ve provided the Loonie bulls some action as it showed a 1.5% gain when investors were only expecting a 0.3% uptick.
Unfortunately for the comdoll, BOC Governor Mark Carney rained on its parade when he said that they might reduce their growth forecasts and delay their interest rate hike prospects in their next outlook report. Apparently, the central bank is concerned about the lack of growth in its major trading counterparts.
No reports are scheduled for release today, so make sure you stay glued to the tube for any news report that might affect risk sentiment. Who knows? Maybe Carney will make a speech again today or we might hear more bailout talks from Spain and Greece!
The Loonie definitely had a good day yesterday. Thanks to the pick up in risk appetite, it was able to pare all of the losses it incurred earlier on in the week against the dollar. USD/CAD dropped from its opening price of .9867 to close the day at .9780.
There weren’t any economic reports released from Canada yesterday. Fortunately for the Loonie, Moody’s decision to keep its Baa3 grade for Spain spurred risk appetite and gave investors enough reason to buy the comdoll.
Our forex calendar still doesn’t have any market-moving data for the currency today which probably means that we’ll see the Loonie trade in according to the market sentiment. Keep tabs on the events scheduled from the euro zone today as they could potentially shift the market’s mood. Just remember that the Loonie usually does well when risk appetite is up but trades lower when risk aversion is in play.
Talk about disappointing! Just a day after whooping the Greenback, the Loonie took a step back and gave back nearly all its gains from Wednesday, as USD/CAD closed 69 pips higher to finish at .9849.
Not even better-than-expected wholesale sales figures could prop up the Canadian dollar! Sales growth printed at 0.5% for August, which was more than twice the projected 0.2% pace, and a major turnaround from the previous month’s figure of a 0.7% drop.
So what caused the Loonie to lose its luster yesterday? Good ol’ risk aversion, baby!
For today, we could be in for another wild ride on USD/CAD, as the monthly CPI report is due at 12:30 pm GMT.
Keep in mind that earlier this week, BOC Governor Mark Carney said that central bank would be holding off of any interest rate hikes given the current conditions in the market. This could mean that central bank officials will be paying closer attention to inflation now, as it would help them gauge how much room they have to shift interest rates.
After successfully breaking above the .9850 mark, USD/CAD staged another 100-pip rally on Friday as it climbed close to .9950. The pair gapped up and opened at .9946 for this week as risk aversion seems ready to extend its stay in the markets.
Canada’s CPI figures came in below expectations for September as the headline and core figures landed at 0.2%. Analysts were expecting to see a 0.3% uptick for both figures. Components of the report revealed that the weak September inflation was mostly a result of Loonie strength, as the Loonie reached new highs against the Greenback during the month. Now this might force the BOC to retract some of its hawkish remarks later on!
There are no reports due from Canada today, giving the Loonie enough time to brace itself for the Canadian retail sales release and BOC rate statement tomorrow. Retail sales are expected to be slightly weaker compared to the previous month, adding to speculations that the BOC might switch to a more dovish tone this time around.
No other major reports are set for release from Canada for the rest of the week, which suggests that the BOC statement could set the tone for USD/CAD’s movement for the next few days. Good luck trading!