Are those muscles I see? Why, yes they are! For the first time in three days, the Loonie was able to advance versus the safe haven Greenback. USD/CAD had begun the day at .9946 but eventually fell and traded at .9922 by the end of the U.S. trading session.
No major data was released yesterday, so the Loonie’s move was probably the effect of investors taking profit on the recent move up of USD/CAD.
Today, there are a couple of tier 1 events lined up, namely the retail sales report and the BOC’s interest rate decision.
The Canadian retail sales report, which will be published at 12:30 pm GMT, is expected to show a 0.3% rise for the month of August. In July, the retail sales report printed a 0.7% increase. The core version of the report is projected to also show a 0.3% climb, down from the previous month’s 0.4% jump.
As for the BOC’s interest rate decision, it is widely expected that the central bank will keep rates unchanged at 1.00%. According to analysts, however, the accompanying statement could be bearish for the Loonie as the central bank could talk down interest rate hike expectations. If BOC Governor Mark Carney sounds dovish and continues to carry out a wait-and-see approach into 2013, we could see the Loonie sell-off again.
The BOC participated in an early trick-or-treat game yesterday as they surprised the markets by keeping their hawkish feathers. As a result, the Loonie steadied against the Greenback despite the risk aversion and falling oil prices in the markets. What a treat, eh?
In its monetary policy decision yesterday, the BOC kept its rates unchanged at 1.00% and said that “[I]some modest withdrawal of present considerable monetary policy stimulus will likely be required.[/I]”This is not only a departure from its “[I]…stimulus may become appropriate[/I]” rhetoric last summer, but it’s also in contrast to the dovishness that BOC head honcho Mark Carney was projecting last week!
If you think that actions speak louder than words, then it’s not hard to believe that the BOC might not be as worried about the economy as they led us to believe. Heck, they even kept their growth forecasts unchanged for 2012 and 2013 and only slightly lowered their 2014 estimates.
Could it be that the devil is in the details? We’ll likely find out more about what the BOC thinks of the economy at 2:30 pm GMT when the central bank releases its monetary policy report, followed by the BOC press conference at 3:15 pm GMT.
The Loonie looked as though it was finally gonna bag some pips at the start of the day. But it finally gave way to selling pressure in the New York session as traders took USD/CAD from an intraday low of .9889 to end the day at .9949, up 23 pips from its opening price.
Demand for the Loonie suddenly died down after BOC Governor Mark Carney made it clear that there isn’t a pressing need for higher rates at the moment. But for those of you who have been hoping for a rate hike, don’t lose hope! He also said that rates are likely to go up in the long run. Just don’t hold your breath waiting for a rate hike!
Nothing on the economic calendar from Canada today. Y’all know the drill! Keep tabs on risk sentiment in the meantime, fellas! Remember, the Loonie tends to rally when risk appetite is healthy.
Still not much action on USD/CAD. After an entire day’s worth of trading, it ended just 9 pips above its opening price. Will today be any different?
It’s tough to say, but don’t expect anything from Canada to shake up the market because it isn’t scheduled to publish any economic releases today.
So if you plan on trading USD/CAD, I suggest you take a look at what the U.S. has to offer. It’s supposed to publish GDP data in the New York session. Don’t miss it!
Yeouch! Since there were no reports from Canada last Friday, the Loonie traded on risk sentiment. And boy did it hit the Loonie bulls hard! USD/CAD closed 40 pips higher than its open price after hitting an intraday high of .9995.
Like many high-yielding currencies, the Loonie fell victim to the risk aversion that settled over the markets during the early trading sessions last Friday. But unlike its counterparts, the Loonie bulls weren’t in the mood to step up in the later trading sessions when risk appetite showed improvement.
No data is scheduled for release again today, so keep an eye out for other major events coming up! I hear that Japan is about to release its employment numbers. Better check our economic calendar just to be sure!
The Loonie succumbed to overall Greenback strength, as USD/CAD climbed for the second consecutive trading day. USD/CAD rose 31 pips to finish at 1.0008, marking the first time in nearly three months that the pair has finished trading above parity.
With no data lined up once again, we’ll most likely see USD/CAD trading dictated by dollar flows. Keep in mind though, that with the storms hitting the East Coast, there’s a good chance we won’t see much liquidity in today’s trading. If you happen to live in an affected area, stay safe my friend!
Yesterday marked a tiny victory for the Loonie, but after losing two days in a row, we’ll take what we can get! USD/CAD traded as high as 1.0021 before it slipped back down below parity to end the day 15 pips lower at .9993.
The RMPI report printed an increase in prices of raw materials of 1.3% last month, which is just slightly above the median forecast of a 1.2% increase. Meanwhile, BOC Governor Mark Carney’s speech turned out to be a dud as he failed to say anything new about the economy.
Hopefully, today’s GDP report will get the markets going. It’s expected to print a growth of 0.2% for the month of August, the same as what we saw in July. Should results exceed expectations, it could help the Loonie post larger gains against the Greenback. Be sure to catch the report as it comes out at 12:30 pm GMT!
During the Tokyo and London sessions, the Loonie was on its way towards establishing a new high for the week against the dollar. However, due to a shocking GDP reading, USD/CAD quikly skyrocketed above parity after tapping an intraday low at .9960.
According to Canada’s GDPreport, the economy unexpectedly contracted in August by 0.1%. The actual reading was lower than the previous figure and the consensus, both of which were at 0.2%. A deeper look at the data reveals that the manufacturing sector’s contribution to growth declined during the month and took its toll on the overall reading.
I wonder if the report is enough reason for the BOC to shift to a move dovish stance. We won’t find out for sure until the next BOC rate statement though!
For today’s trading, be sure to be on your toes for top-tier reports from the U.S. as they could possibly affect the Loonie. Good luck!
Make that three in a row! Once again, USD/CAD closed lower, finishing 20 pips below its opening price at .9968. Will we see another victory for the Loonie bulls today or will we see USD/CAD make another run for parity?
We could be in for some wild moves on USD/CAD today, as we’ve got some serious red flags going up the economic totem pole during the New York session.
The headline event for today, of course, will be the NFP report. Don’t forget to check out my U.S. commentary for the details on this market mover!
But don’t forget that we’ve also Canadian employment figures headed our way as well! Expectations are that just 9,500 jobs were added last month, which would be poor follow up to the 52,100 increase we saw the month before. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 7.4%.
But hey, as my momma always used to say, you never know what might happen! If the employment data come in much better than expected, we could see the Canadian dollar end the week with another win!
There’s always an exception to the rule, and last Friday, it was the Loonie! The Canadian currency was the only major currency that gained ground against the Greenback, as it managed to end the day 12 pips higher.
What’s so amazing about the Loonie’s feat is that it did it without the help of employment data, which came in disappointingly right before the weekend. Instead of showing job gains of 9,500, the October employment report only revealed an increase of 1,800 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate was unmoved at 7.4%, just as expected.
Hopefully, we’ll see better results from the building permits report due at 1:30 pm GMT today. The report is expected to show a 2.6% decline following August’s 7.9% surge, but if September somehow manages to post a positive figure, it could help the Loonie extend its gains.
Later in the week, we have a couple more red flags. The Ivey PMI is due tomorrow at 3:00 pm GMT and is slated to slip from 60.4 to 58.3. Then at 1:30 pm GMT on Thursday, we’ll have the trade balance report on tap. Expect Canada’s deficit to widen from 1.1 billion CAD to 1.4 billion CAD.
For the first time in 5 trading days, the Loonie bulls took their hooves off the pedal and allowed the Greenback to edge higher. USD/CAD closed at .9969 to finish 16 pips above its opening price.
A combination of overall dollar strength and bad economic data caused USD/CAD to jump higher.
Building permits dropped by -13.2% last month, after having risen by 9.5% the month before. This marked the steepest drop in nearly 18 months. One reason why permits may have fallen is due to home buyers not wanting to start building homes during the winter. Let’s see if this figure bounces back in the coming months.
We could be in for some wild moves on USD/CAD today, as we’ve got the Ivey PMI on tap at 3:00 pm GMT. Bookies are pegging the release to come in at 58.3, down slightly from the previous month’s recording of 60.4. Make sure y’all hit up Forex Gump’s latest post, which is actually a trading guide for the Ivey PMI!
Ohhhh, muscles! The Canadian dollar showed what strength is all about yesterday as it rallied strongly versus the U.S. dollar. From its day open price at .9969, USD/CAD dropped like a rock to end the U.S. trading session at 51 pips lower at .9918.
The Canadian dollar traded higher mostly because of the 3% jump in oil prices. Remember, the Canadian economy is heavily linked to oil, so rising oil prices typically lead to a stronger currency as well.
In other news, the Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index came in just as expected but slightly lower than the previous month’s reading. It printed a reading of 58.3.
No major news reports are scheduled to be published today but I think we’ll see quite a bit of volatility from the Canadian dollar. Both the U.S. elections and the Greek government debt crisis vote are going to take place today and both of them are major market movers.
Yesterday’s price is a perfect example of why you can never relax in the forex market! After it looked like USD/CAD was gonna continue sinking to new lows, we saw a midday reversal that allowed the pair to reverse all its losses and then some. By the end of the day, the pair was trading at .9967, up 92 pips from the daily low and 39 pips above its opening price.
The reason why we saw USD/CAD rise was due to overall strength by the Greenback, which benefitted from a run of risk aversion yesterday.
Can the Loonie make a comeback today? It may depend on the results of the trade balance report, which is scheduled to hit the airwaves at 1:30 pm GMT. Expectations are that a trade deficit of 1.4 billion CAD was established last September, up from the 1.3 billion CAD the month before. If we see a smaller-than-expected figure, it could give the Canadian dollar a slight boost to erase some of yesterday’s losses.
The Loonie had to settle in the losers’ bench yesterday despite a positive trade balance report from Canada. USD/CAD closed just above parity after opening at .9965. Boo!
In September, the country’s imports only outpaced exports by 800 million CAD. Not only was it better than the expected 1.4 billion trade deficit, it was also lower than the 1.5 billion deficit in August.
Unfortunately, risk aversion was the name of the game in yesterday’s trading as concerns about Europe’s economic growth spooked investors. (You can read more about it in my EUR commentary).
Our forex calendar is blank for reports from Canada today. This means that we’ll most likely see the Loonie trade according to market sentiment. With that said, make sure you gauge the market’s mood before putting on any trade, ayt?
That was a close one! The Loonie held its ground against the Greenback last Friday with USD/CAD ending the day with only a 6-pip gain after it reached an intraday high 37 pips higher than its open price. Check out the three factors that helped the Loonie!
First was the better-than-expected Chinese data. Aside from printing not-so-hot inflation numbers, China’s industrial production and retail sales numbers were also stronger than what analysts had expected.
Strong consumer data from the U.S. also contributed to the mix as it helped boost risk appetite during the U.S. session. The optimism also lifted oil prices, which was good for the oil-related Loonie.
Canada is enjoying its Remembrance Day bank holiday today, but keep your eyes glued to the tube on Thursday when the manufacturing sales and BOC review are released. Also don’t forget to check Canada’s reports on Friday when the foreign securities purchase report is scheduled for release.
P-p-party at parity! With banks in the U.S. and Canada closed for Veterans Day, the Loonie spent most of yesterday’s trading around the major 1.0000 handle against the dollar. It did, however, manage to finish the day with a 10-pip win at .9992.
Our forex calendar is still blank for reports from Canada today. But take note that most traders will probably be back to their trading desks and we could see volatility pick up once again.
With that said, the Loonie will likely take its cue from market sentiment. So make sure you keep tabs on updates from the ECOFIN meetings as discussions regarding Greece affect investors’ appetite for risk. Remember that the Loonie usually does well when risk appetite is up. Good luck!
The lack of economic data kept the Loonie range bound yesterday, bouncing off previous highs and lows. It traded in a very tight 30-pip range with resistance at 1.0025 and support at .9995.
The only economic data release on deck today is the report on Manufacturing Sales for the month of September. It’s expected to show a rise of 0.3% after the 1.5% gain we had seen in August.
Rising manufacturing sales is considered bullish for the Loonie as it could lead to increased hiring, spending, and investment in the future. Let’s see if the somewhat positive expectation can boost the Loonie.
The Loonie lost ground to the Greenback for the second day in a row as USD/CAD closed significantly above parity. The pair started the day at 1.0014, jumped to a high of 1.0035, before it closed at 1.0031. Can the Loonie bounce back today?
Even though Canada didn’t release any economic reports yesterday, weaker than expected data from the U.S. was enough to drag the Loonie down. After all, Canada has strong economic ties with Uncle Sam and any weaknesses in U.S. consumer demand could have a negative impact on the Canadian economy.
It didn’t help that a BOC official was quoted saying that the central bank might need to keep monetary policy loose in order to keep the Canadian economy afloat in the midst of weak external demand. Now that’s a big shift from BOC head Mark Carney’s hawkish stance!
Canada is set to release its manufacturing sales figure at 2:30 pm GMT today and is expected to show a 0.3% uptick for September. This would be slightly weaker than the 1.5% jump seen during the previous month and, if the actual figure disappoints, the Loonie could be in for another losing day.
Don’t forget that the U.S. is still set to release a bunch of top-tier figures today, which could have an impact on the Loonie’s movement again. Make sure you drop by my U.S. economic commentary to see what’s in store!
For first time in three days, the Loonie was able to out-muscle the Greenback in the charts. USD/CAD, which had begun the day at 1.0031, closed the U.S. trading session with a respectable 14-pip gain.
No major economic data from Canada yesterday as only the September Manufacturing Sales report was published. It came in with a 0.4% gain, which was slightly higher than the 0.3% forecast. In addition, the figure for August was also revised lower. It was changed to 0.9% from 1.5%.
Only the report on Foreign Securities Purchases will be published today. It’s scheduled to print at 1:30 pm GMT and it is anticipated to show a 7.45 billion CAD figure. Last month, the figure was at 6.90 billion CAD. This means demand for Canadian financial instruments have increased. This is normally considered bullish for the Loonie.
Thanks to positive data and optimism in the U.S. session, USD/CAD ended the day in the green against the dollar. The pair spiked to an intraday high of 1.0016 before it capped the day 8 pips lower than its open price. Score another one for the comdoll!
Last Friday Canada’s foreign securities purchase showed that foreign investments on Canadian securities jumped to 13.92 billion CAD in September. As it turned out, market players liked buying Canada’s government bonds and equities.
The Loonie rally was also fueled by progress on the U.S. fiscal cliff. In a move that surprised the markets, top congressional leaders came out from a meeting with President Obama and told the press that the meeting was “productive.” The news cheered the currency bulls and boosted high-yielding currencies like the Loonie.
No reports are scheduled for release today, so watch out for reports that might affect the Loonie’s price action. The scuffle in the Middle East is a good place to start observing as it could affect oil price action and the oil-related Loonie.
Also stay glued to the tube for updates on Greece’s bailout and the U.S. fiscal cliff as both market themes have affected risk sentiment in the last couple of days.
Good luck and good trading, folks!