The Loonie had a strong start to the week, as it forced USD/CAD to trade below parity and end the day 46 pips lower at .9965. What kind of action can we expect from it today?
Well, that might depend on the upcoming wholesale sales report due at 1:30 pm GMT. Survey says we’ll likely see a repeat of the 0.5% growth that we saw in August. As usual, better-than-expected results could lead to a Loonie rally.
Another key factor that may affect demand for the Loonie is oil prices, which have been on a rise lately (it posted a 2.7% gain yesterday). If oil prices continue to surge, it may just take the Loonie along for the ride, so be sure to read up on intermarket correlations.
Looks like the Loonie bulls took a breather from their cause yesterday when they let USD/CAD rise 16 pips higher than its open price.
It also didn’t help the comdoll that Canada released a weak wholesale sales report. The data printed a 1.4% decline in September, which is weaker than both the downwardly revised 0.3% uptick in August and expected 0.5% growth in September.
Even oil prices weighed on the oil-related Loonie. Yesterday oil prices went down by 2.3% after almost steadily climbing in the previous days.
Canada won’t be releasing any economic report today, so pay close attention to the euro group’s decision on Greece and other market reports that might affect high-yielding currencies like the comdolls.
Way to go, Loonie! The Canadian currency was able to snag some gains against the Greenback yesterday, allowing USD/CAD to close at .9966. Will the Loonie be able to hold on to its recent winnings?
There were no economic reports released from Canada yesterday but it seems that the Loonie was able to benefit from improved risk sentiment prior to the Thanksgiving holidays. Although most U.S. traders will be off to start the weekend early today, USD/CAD could still be in for some crazy price action as Canada is set to print its retail sales data at 2:30 pm GMT.
The report is expected to show that both core and headline figures jumped by 0.5% in September, reflecting stronger consumer spending in Canada. However, if the actual figures miss expectations, the Loonie might be forced to return its recent gains. Stay on your toes!
Zzzzzz…. With no major data released, USD/CAD stayed in consolidation mode, bouncing within a range of just 30 pips. Will we see more of the same to end the week?
Not even the release of retail sales figures could bust the Loonie out of consolidation! Retail sales came in much worse than expected, with the headline figure printing growth of just 0.1%, way off the 0.5% expectation. Meanwhile, core sales growth remained flat, after it was also expected to jump by 0.5%.
For today, inflation data is headed our way in the form of the CPI report. Word on the street is that both the headline and core CPI will come in to show inflation at 0.2%. To be honest, I’m not expecting this to rock the markets’ socks too much, but it doesn’t hurt to be informed! Good luck trading today forex fanatics!
The Loonie had a lot to be thankful for last Friday as it capped the trading week with a strong rally against the Greenback. USD/CAD broke below the .9950 minor psychological support and dipped to a low of .9915, before ending the week at .9927.
Stronger than expected Canadian core CPI was enough to boost the Loonie during last Friday’s U.S. session as the actual figure came in at 0.3%, higher than the 0.2% estimate. The headline figure came in line with expectations as it posted a 0.2% uptick in price levels for October.
There are no economic reports due from Canada today so make sure you keep close tabs on risk sentiment to figure out where the Loonie could be headed. Don’t forget that EU finance ministers are scheduled to hold another set of discussions on Greece’s debt today and, if they finally agree on a deal, we could see risk appetite lift the higher-yielding currencies. Good luck!
Looking at USD/CAD, you’d think that nothing important happened in Canada yesterday… but boy would you be wrong! The pair closed just 9 pips above its opening price at .9938, but the big news is that BOC Governor Mark Carney was named the next BOE Governor. Yowza!
Apparently, it’s not just in the NBA that we see big trades… it happens in the FX world too! Carney will become the first foreigner to lead the BOE when he moves to the U.K. in July.
The market’s initial reaction was to dump the Loonie, as traders felt that this move would push rate hikes further into the future. Then again, the reaction could also reflect how highly the markets think of Carney. After all, the initial drop in the Loonie was met with a rally in the pound.
In any case, the question to ask now is: who will replace Mark Carney? Ay caramba! His replacement definitely has some big shoes to fill.
Up ahead, no major reports on tap from Canada. In the meantime, I suggest y’all monitor risk sentiment. Peace and good luck trading, folks!
Just when everyone thought the Loonie was going to end the day with a win, the dollar stepped up its game and hustled some muscle! USD/CAD was steadily trading lower during the Tokyo and London sessions, tapping a low of .9906, before the pair surged in the New York session and finished the day 5 pips above its opening price at .9942.
It would seem that the last-minute hustle from the dollar was sparked by the better-than-expected consumer confidence report from the U.S. With that said and given that we still don’t have economic reports due from Canada today, be sure you’re on your toes for reports on tap for the Loonie’s counterparts!
Looks like Loonie traders aren’t quite ready to take the market to new levels! For the third day in a row, USD/CAD traded sideways as the pair found resistance at the .9950 handle once more. When all was said and done, it finished 17 pips lower at .9925. Will it finally break out of its range today?
The markets’ outlook for the U.S. fiscal cliff seems to have lightened up a bit yesterday, allowing the Loonie to chalk up some gains against its American counterpart. People say that U.S. officials are finally making progress towards coming to an agreement on tax and spending issues.
Is this enough to keep the Loonie afloat? Maybe, maybe not! But chances are, the markets will need to see more positive developments for it to maintain this level of risk appetite.
Today, we have a potential market mover on our hands at 1:30 am GMT in the form of the Canadian current account report. Survey says we’ll likely see Canada’s deficit expand from 16.0 billion CAD to 18.0 billion CAD in Q3 2012. Meanwhile, the RMPI report, which measures price changes in raw materials, is expected to show a 0.4% decline in October, following September’s 1.3% uptick.
Boring! Despite tier-2 data from Canada, we didn’t really see much action from the Loonie on the charts yesterday. USD/CAD traded within a mere 28-pip range before it finished the day just ONE pip below its opening price at .9924.
Canada’s current account September printed a bigger deficit than what was anticipated. The actual reading was at 18.9 billion CAD versus the forecast of 18 billion CAD.
But don’t worry! If you’re looking for some action on the Loonie, Canada’s GDP report for September may just do the trick! Data on the country’s economic growth is going to be released later at 1:30 pm GMT and it is expected to print at 0.1%.
A better-than-expected figure could send the Loonie trading higher while a disappointing one could get it sold off. Be on your toes for it!
Just like the rest of the market, USD/CAD stayed in consolidation mode last Friday, as it didn’t make any new significant high or low. Will the ranging continue this week or is a breakout in the cards?
The only data we got from Canada last Friday were monthly GDP figures, which unfortunately, indicated zero growth in sales. While this failed to hit the forecast of a 0.1% uptick, it was still better than the previous month’s -0.1% decline.
Nothing lined up for today, but watch out tomorrow when the Bank of Canada makes its interest rate decision. Experts believe that we won’t see any different from this month’s statement, but do take note that Carney will be leaving the BOC to take over the top post at the BOE at mid-2013. It’ll be interesting to see if the BOC acknowledges this and gives us some hints as to what direction it will take with regards to monetary policy once Carney jumps ship.
With no hard data on tap, USD/CAD stayed within its recent range yet again. By the end of the day, the pair was trading at .9948, just 13 pips above its opening price.
The good news for all you Loonie players looking for some volatility is that we’ve got a top tier report headed our way in the form of the Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
No changes are expected to be made to interest rates, but that doesn’t mean that we won’t see some fireworks from the accompanying statement. Take note of what comments are made, more specifically on those about incumbent Governor Mark Carney taking over the top post at the BOE beginning mid-2013.
Oh yeah! The Loonie finished the day in the bull’s turf against the dollar. USD/CAD closed lower at .9929 after opening at .9948.
As expected, the BOC kept rates steady at 1.00%. That marked the 18th consecutive time that the central bank sat on the sidelines. It helped the Loonie that BOC Governor Mark Carney didn’t sound so dovish. He remarked that “higher rates would be needed over time.” But of course, with the fiscal cliff clouding the U.S. (Canada’s biggest trading partner) any rate hike won’t happen anytime soon.
Our forex calendar is blank for economic data from Canada today, so make sure you keep tabs on market sentiment. Keep in mind that the Loonie usually does well when risk appetite is up. Good luck!
Back-to-back, baby! With the BOC’s hawkish tone still ringing in the Loonie bulls’ ears, it was easy for the comdoll to chalk up another positive day against the Greenback. USD/CAD dropped by another 16 pips from its open price after reaching an intraday low at .9908. Booyah!
Canada didn’t release any economic report yesterday, so some investors used the lull as a chance to jump in the Loonie optimism brought about by the BOC’s surprisingly hawkish stance in its interest rate statement.
Let’s see if the Loonie will hold on to its gains today when the building permits data is printed at 2:30 pm GMT. It will be followed by the IVEY PMI, which is scheduled at at 4:00 pm GMT. While the PMI data is expected to rise from 58.3 to 58.8, others aren’t holding their breath, saying that the weak wholesale sales might have weighed on manufacturing activity.
Good luck trading today, fellas!
That .9900 mark sure is stubborn! For the third time in the past two months, USD/CAD players made a run for the psychological handle but failed to breakthrough. After trading as low as .9892, USD/CAD finally settled at .9917, up 4 pips from its opening price.
Perhaps mixed data was the reason why Loonie bulls didn’t have enough juice to push the Canadian dollar higher.
Building permits approvals rose by a solid 15.0% last month, way higher than the anticipated 2.3% uptick, and a complete turnaround from the 12.7% decline we saw the month before.
The problem though, was that the Ivey PMI printed way below forecast, coming in at just 47.5, after it was projected to print at 58.8. This marked the lowest reading in 16 months, and indicates potential weakness in the Canadian economy. Now, we all know that one month does not make a trend, so let’s see how this pans out at the start of the new year.
Will .9900 continue to hold? We should get more answers tonight, when Canadian employment figures hit the Rockies at 1:30 pm GMT. Expectations are that 11,300 jobs were added to the economy over the past month, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 7.4%. If these data come in much better than anticipated, it could give the Loonie bulls enough momentum to finally break through!
Spectacular performance, Loonie! The tremendously overwhelming jobs data from Canada proved to be too strong for the Loonie bears, which allowed USD/CAD to fall to its lowest level since November 7. The pair, after opening the day at .9916, fell to .9876 and then closed at .9899.
Canada’s labor report showed that the unemployment rate decline to 7.2% in November. The forecast was that it would stay at 7.4%. In addition, the number of people who have jobs was reported to have increased by 59,300 (net), which was notably higher than the 11,300 (net) the market had initially expected.
The only red flag on Canada’s data cupboard is its Trade Balance. It will come out on Wednesday and it is projected to show a 1.2 billion CAD deficit for the month of October. In September, the deficit stood at 800 million CAD. A falling Trade Balance is normally considered negative for the domestic currency as it could mean that demand for the country’s exports are declining.
After gapping down over the weekend, USD/CAD climbed just enough to fill half of the gap before falling back to the .9870 area again. Will it close the gap completely today or will it trade much lower?
There were no reports released from Canada yesterday so it seems that the Loonie is still benefitting from the positive sentiment spurred by strong Canadian jobs data released last week.
For today, Canada will release its trade balance report for October and possibly show a wider deficit for the month. The actual figure is expected to go from -0.8 billion CAD for September to -1.2 billion CAD for October, reflecting weaker export activity from Canada. Stay tuned for the actual release at 2:30 pm GMT because a smaller than expected deficit could give the Loonie a boost!
It was a very slow day for the Loonie yesterday as only Canada’s trade balance was released. USD/CAD opened the day at .9872 and moved within a very tight 24 tight horizontal channel the entire day. It found resistance at .9881 and support at .9857.
The country’s trade balance was significantly better than expected. It showed that Canada was able to trim its trade deficit to 200 million CAD. The forecast was for it to get bigger to 1.2 billion CAD from 1.0 billion CAD.
No data scheduled to be published today so we’ll likely see the Loonie exhibit the same kind of volatility it did yesterday. Keep a close eye on the previous day’s highs and lows as they could serve as today’s inflection levels.
Canada might not have released any economic report yesterday but that didn’t stop the Loonie bulls from charging! USD/CAD fell by another 26 pips after dropping to an intraday low of .9826. Was the reason for the Loonie’s strength any different from the other high-yielding currencies?
Not really. Since we didn’t see any action from Canada, the Loonie investors traded on risk appetite and dollar aversion. As I have mentioned in my USD piece, the Fed head honchos decided to step up their asset purchases and downgraded their growth forecasts.
Only the new homes price index and capacity utilization rate at 2:30 pm GMT are scheduled to print from Canada today, which could make the Loonie vulnerable to risk appetite trades once again. Make sure you read up on what’s happening with the other currencies so you have better chances of predicting where the Loonie is headed!
And the Loonie’s winning streak finally comes to an end! The Canadian currency just couldn’t overcome its American counterpart yesterday as traders were spooked by U.S. fiscal worries. After an entire day of trading, USD/CAD finished 13 pips higher at .9852.
Even with the NHPI coming in better than expected (0.2% vs 0.1%) and the capacity utilization report printing an upside surprise (80.9% vs 80.6%), the Loonie just couldn’t attract enough buyers. Blame it all on risk sentiment! It seems the markets just weren’t in the mood to handle riskier assets yesterday, as the U.S.'s economic problems led traders to book profits on risk aversion. Will this continue today?
Maybe! Today, we’ve got manufacturing sales data coming out at 1:30 pm GMT, and it might help restore faith in the Loonie if it prints positive results. The last time this report came out, it printed a small increase of just 0.4%. This time around, analysts are only forecasting a 0.0% figure.
Down for another day! Better-than-expected Chinese data might have given the Loonie a boost early in the day, but optimism for U.S. Fiscal Cliff developments soon weighed on the higher-yielding currencies and lifted USD/CAD enough to close 12 pips higher than its open price.
China’s surprisingly better-than-expected manufacturing PMI gave the comdoll bulls a thrill early last Friday, but Canada’s weak manufacturing sales soon soured the Loonie bulls’ drive to finish strong. The report showed a 1.4% decline for the month of October, a lot lower than the 0.0% number that analysts were expecting.
It also didn’t help that profit-taking and optimism for weekend developments on the U.S. Fiscal Cliff inspired investors to turn to the Greenback. USD/CAD went up from its intraday low of .9832 and ended the day at .9864. Ouch!
Only the foreign securities purchase report at 2:30 pm GMT is scheduled for release today, so you might want to turn your attention to the newswires for any developments on the Fiscal Cliff. Also keep your eyes open for any news on Italy and Japan’s political saga as they could affect investors’ appetite for risk.
Good luck and good trading this week!