The rally is not over yet folks! EUR/USD continued to climb higher yesterday, thanks to the positive German Industrial report. EUR/USD, which began the day 1.2974, rose to an intraday high at 1.3038 before eventually settling at 1.3003.
The German Industrial report showed that production for the month of February rose 0.5%. The printed figure was slightly better than the 0.4% forecast and a significant improvement from January’s 0.6% decline (revised down from 0.0%).
The economic data cupboard today is relatively light, as only the trade balance figures from Germany and France are due. The German trade balance will publish at 6:00 am GMT while France’s trade balance will come out 45 minutes after. They’re anticipated to print 16.2 billion EUR and -5.3 billion EUR respectively.
Slow and steady does it! The euro edged a little higher against the U.S. dollar in yesterday’s trading, allowing EUR/USD to reach the 1.3100 major psychological level. EUR/JPY jumped from the 128.50 area to a high of 130.09.
Germany’s trade balance came in stronger than expected for February as the surplus widened from 15.6 billion EUR to 17.1 billion EUR, higher than the estimated 16.2 billion EUR surplus. This may have lifted the euro during the London session but a closer look at the underlying components would reveal that the larger than expected shortfall was caused by huge declines in both imports and exports.
Only the French and Italian industrial production reports are due from the euro zone today and these aren’t likely to have a huge impact on euro price action. Do keep your eyes and ears peeled for the FOMC meeting minutes as this release could still affect EUR/USD movement.
Ouch! That 1.3100 level is just too hot to handle for EUR/USD! The pair turned from its recent rallies upon hitting a high of 1.3122 and dropped back down to close at 1.3052. Against the yen, the euro resumed its climb as EUR/JPY closed 11 pips above 130.00.
The lack of major reports from the euro zone is probably the reason behind the euro’s mixed performance against the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen. While the FOMC meeting minutes revealed that Fed officials were still split regarding tapering off asset purchases, which was positive for the Greenback for now, the BOJ’s recent easing efforts continued to drag the yen lower and pushed EUR/JPY up.
For today, a couple of minor reports, namely the French and German CPI, are due from the euro zone. Do keep an eye out for the release of the ECB monthly bulletin at 9:00 am GMT as well since this report should give the numbers on which the central bank based its latest rate decision.
The euro continued its march up the charts like a soldier preparing for war. It finished the day higher against most of its counterparts, with EUR/USD closing 38 pips above its opening price at 1.3105 and EUR/JPY by 46 pips at 130.85.
There weren’t any economic reports released from the euro zone. However, we did hear some comments from ECB Executive Board member Benoît Cœuré who said that the ECB has exhausted all of its resources to help small- and medium-sized enterprises.
It would seem that the euro rallied to his remarks which are pretty similar to what ECB President Draghi said in the last ECB rate statement. This is probably because it implies that the central bank can’t and won’t ease monetary policy in the near future.
There aren’t any top-tier data due for the euro today but finance ministers from the euro zone will start their two-day meeting. Keep an ear out for what they have to say. Who knows, their remarks may just spark volatility on the euro once again!
Bounce-bounce, bounce-bounce! On Friday, EUR/USD had been trading lower when the euro pulled off an R. Kelly on the charts, putting its comeback on ignition in the New York session. (Ha!) It erased almost all the losses it incurred earlier on in the day, finishing just a pip below its opening price at 1.3103.
The euro saw a bit of sell-off following reports that the EU would cap its bailout package to Cyprus at 10 billion EUR. But luckily for the currency, the U.S. retail sales report came in worse-than-expected and led investors to dump the dollar.
There aren’t any top-tier data due to be released today. Only the euro zone trade balance report for March is on tap at 9:00 am GMT and it is eyed to come in at 9.9 billion EUR.
If you’re looking to trade the euro today, be sure you keep an ear out for updates regarding the EU’s decision on Cyprus as it may continue to affect markets. Good luck!
With risk aversion rocking the markets, the euro took a big hit in yesterday’s trading session. EUR/USD fell 78 pips to finish at 1.3033, while EUR/JPY closed at 126.15, marking a massive 263-pip loss.
No hard data was released from the euro zone, but that didn’t stop market players from shorting the euro. It appears that concerns about Cyprus’ situation are weighing on the markets, as the country needs an additional 6 billion EUR in order to secure bailout funds. Hit up Forex Gump’s latest post for the 411 on this hot topic.
Poor Chinese data contributed to the sharp drop yesterday as well, as the worse-than-expected results triggered strong sell-offs in the commodities market, which only fueled the risk averse trading environment.
For today, we’ve got the German ZEW economic sentiment and CPI reports headed our way at 9:00 am GMT. Expectations are that the ZEW report will print at 41.5, which would mark a drastic drop from the 48.5 we saw last month. Keep in mind this this index has been on the rise, so expectations of a drop indicate that German analysts are very concerned about future outlook of Germany.
As for the CPI report, expectations are that core and headline inflation will tick in at 1.4% and 1.7% respectively, well within the ECB’s target band.
In any case, we could be in for some wild moves today, so be careful trading out there homies!
EUR/USD found some legs yesterday, thanks to the sharp contrast between the results of the economic data released in the euro zone and the U.S. The pair, which had begun the day at 1.3033, was able to close the U.S. trading session significantly higher at 1.3182.
In the euro zone, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that a reading of 1.7%. Meanwhile, the Core CPI rose to 1.5% from 1.4%. In the U.S., the CPI came in worse than expected. It was at -0.2%, and not 0.0% like initially anticipated. The Core version, on the other hand, only reported a 0.1% rise and not 0.2%.
Euro zone’s economic data cupboard is pretty light today as it only contains the German 10-year bond auction. It’s not normally a market mover, but pay attention to it just in case market participants use it as a catalyst to take EUR/USD higher again.
What a disaster! A day after zooming up the charts, EUR/USD came crashing down yesterday, erasing all its gains from Tuesday. The pair eventually finished at 1.3030, marking a 150-pip decline on the day!
The euro took a sizeable hit today, as comments by ECB member Weidmann rocked the shared currency. According to Weidmann, the central bank could cut rates should new evidence prop up supporting the idea that the euro is struggling. Naturally, the markets took this as a sign of openness to more QE by the ECB, and decided to unload their long EUR positions.
Can the euro sell-off continue? We don’t have any hard data on tap today, but as we learned from yesterday, all it takes is one comment from an ECB official to get the ball rolling, so watch out!
The euro was able to pare some of Wednesday’s losses as the markets took EUR/USD 21 pips higher to end at 1.3051. Is it getting ready to stage a comeback or was yesterday’s move just a dead cat bounce?
Surprisingly enough, it seems as though confidence is returning into the euro zone. Yesterday’s Spanish bond auction showed strong appetite for the debt-ridden country’s bonds, whose 10-year bond yields fell to 4.61% - its lowest level since 2010!
Looking ahead, we have some more events to look forward to today. At 6:00 am GMT, German PPI is expected to show a 0.1% increase in producer prices. Then at 8:00 am GMT, we’ll take a look at the region’s current account balance, which is slated to show a surplus of 14.9 billion EUR.
Finally, at 11:30 am GMT, we’ll listen to German Buba President Weidmann deliver a speech. Remember, he caused quite the commotion earlier this week when he suggested that the euro zone could use a little bit more stimulus. He might just rock the markets again if he delivers a similar statement.
No need for Super Mario’s rescue this time! Thanks to a pretty lenient G20 meeting, the euro was able to score some serious gains against its counterparts. EUR/USD popped up to an intraday high of 1.3130 while EUR/JPY jumped by 174 pips.
Just before the week ended Japan’s Prime Minister Aso further talked down the yen by saying that they don’t believe that it’s weak enough at the moment. That, and the lack of criticism from the major economies, inspired risk appetite across the board and boosted the euro against its major counterparts. Also, ECB Governing Council member Weidmann commented on Friday that the ECB would only cut rates if data worsened.
This week focus of economic data will turn to the peripheral countries. Only the region’s consumer confidence data at 2:00 pm GMT is scheduled for today but for the rest of the week we’ll see manufacturing and services PMI from Spain, Italy, and France as well as Spain’s employment numbers
Stick around for these reports, will ya?
Without any economic data on tap, the euro just lacked some “Ooomph!” in yesterday’s trading. It tapped the 1.0300 handle against the dollar but failed to sustain its rally above the level. EUR/USD had to settle with a 6-pip loss for the day at 1.0273.
From what I’ve heard, speculations about a rate cut seemed to have gained momentum among the ECB crew. ECB members Asmussen and Knot have both expressed their concerns about the recent weakness in the economy and have mentioned the prospect of a rate cut.
Consequently, talks about easing weighed down the euro, even overshadowing the positive news that Italy has finally elected a President!
Today will be a big day for the euro with the euro zone PMIs on tap. ECB officials are closely watching economic data and if today’s roster of figures expose more weakness, they could give policymakers more reasons to go for a rate cut.
Data start rolling out at 7:00 am GMT with the French manufacturing PMI eyed at 44.2 and the services PMI seen at 42.3. Then at 7:30 am GMT, the German manufacturing PMI is anticipated to come in at 49.0 while the services PMI is estimated at 51.1. Finally, at 8:00 am GMT, the euro zone manufacturing PMI is expected to print at 46.8 followed by the region-wide services PMI seen at 46.7.
Make sure you don’t miss these reports, ayt?
Awful, awful performance! Due to the generally weaker-than-expected manufacturing and services PMIs from the euro zone, the shared currency took a major dive yesterday. After starting out the day at 1.3062, the pair plunged as low as 1.2972 before settling at 1.2999 at the end of the U.S. trading session.
The euro zone PMIs revealed that there could be extended economic weakness in the region. Euro zone PMI manufacturing fell to 46.5 versus the forecast of 46.8, while the services PMI rose less than expected to 46.6.
French PMI manufacturing and services slightly improved, but both are still below the 50.0 figure that divides growth from contraction. The biggest disappointment, however, were the German PMIs. The country’s manufacturing PMI reading dropped to 47.9 while the services PMI weakened to 49.2.
Another leading indicator will be coming your way today. At 8:00 am GMT, the German IFO business climate survey will be published. It’s estimated to print a reading of 106.4, which is slightly down from last month’s 106.7. A falling reading is normally seen as negative for the domestic currency because it suggests that businesses are less optimistic (or more pessimistic) about their prospects for the next six months.
Chop, chop, chop! EUR/USD sliced this way and that in yesterday’s trading sessions as the pair spiked to a low of 1.2955 then zoomed up to a high of 1.3035. At the end of the day, EUR/USD was still stuck around the 1.3000 major psychological level.
The German Ifo business climate figure came in weaker than expected at 104.4 instead of landing at 106.4. As it turns out, business sentiment turned sour this month because of the negative effects of the cold weather on business conditions. EUR/USD sold off right after this release but the pair managed to bounce back to its current levels as European equities stayed resilient.
For today, only the Spanish unemployment rate is set for release from the euro zone and this isn’t likely to have a lasting effect on price action, although the figure is slated to jump from 26.0% to 26.5% for Q1 2013. A significantly worse than expected figure could trigger another downside break from 1.3000 but whether the selloff lasts or not could depend on how the U.K. GDP report affects market sentiment.
Yesterday turned out to be an extremely wild day for the euro. At first, the currency staged a magnificent rally. But when the U.S. trading session began, the euro kept dropping like a hot potato. EUR/USD started the day at 1.3016, rose as high as 1.3095, and then closed near its open price at 1.3003.
Mixed signals were the cause of EUR/USD’s see-saw price action.
On the one hand, an ECB Council Member tamed expectations of a rate cut when he indicated that slashing rates would probably not be effective to the euro zone’s periphery nations. He further went on to say that the effects of loose monetary policy, “where they are most needed,” would be restricted as the transmission of monetary policy is not working well.
On the other hand, Spain’s labor report showed that unemployment soared to 27.2% from 26.0%. Market participants had initially predicted for it to rise to only 26.5%.
Euro zone’s forex calendar doesn’t have any red flags today as only the M3 Money Supply report is due. It’s going to come out at 8:00 am GMT and it is expected to show a 3.0% rise. Last month, it clocked in a 3.1% increase.
The euro clocked in another losing day against its counterparts last Friday as rumors of a possible ECB rate cut gained momentum. EUR/JPY slid by 135 pips while EUR/GBP also slipped by 10 pips. So what happened to EUR/USD?
Well, the pair was supported by not only a weak U.S. GDP reading but also the 1.3000 major psychological handle. Still, that doesn’t mean that the euro is safe from more losses this week.
The euro region is facing a big week ahead starting with the German inflation, retail sales, employment numbers, and consumer climate due today and tomorrow. We’ll also see employment, GDP, manufacturing PMI, and bond auctions from Spain, France, and Italy.
And then there’s the big ECB interest rate announcement on Thursday. Although the central bank will print its interest rates at 11:45 am GMT, Draghi won’t be up on stage until 12:30 pm GMT. Will Super Mario bring the euro to its knees by announcing bearish news? Don’t even think of missing these reports!
Surprise, surprise! The euro seems to be gaining bullish momentum ahead of the ECB rate statement! Buyers took EUR/USD another 59 pips higher yesterday, propping the pair up just below the 1.3100 handle. Will the shared currency continue defying gravity?
What has gotten into the markets, eh? Even with the threat of a rate cut looming over the euro, not to mention the really ugly economic reports we’ve been seeing as of late, traders have been buying up the currency. It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what’s lifting the euro, but rumor has it that it could be a combination of dollar weakness and optimism for Italy’s new government.
Today, we have a bunch of euro zone reports coming out, starting with German retail sales and GfK German consumer climate at 6:00 am GMT. Consumer spending in Germany is anticipated to slide 0.2% while the consumer climate index is expected to hold steady at 5.9.
Then at 6:45 am, we’ll take a look at French consumer spending, which is slated to rise by 0.2%. At 7:00 am, Spain will publish its GDP report, which is forecasted to print a 0.5% contration. And at 7:55 pm GMT, we’ll take a look at the latest employment stats from Germany which, rumor has it, will reveal an increase of 2,000 in the number of unemployed.
Rounding up our day at 9:00 am is the euro zone CPI flash estimate (to print a 1.6% increase), and the unemployment rate (seen to rise to 12.1% from 12.0%). If all these reports print positive results, it could lead the euro to extend its gains. On the other hand, should they print in the red, it may finally be enough to bring the euro back down to earth.
Who’s the loser now? The euro registered gains left and right against its counterparts yesterday despite persistent rumors of an ECB rate cut. EUR/USD gained for a third day in a row while EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY printed back-to-back gains. What the heck is up?
Well, it might have helped that the Cyprus drama is reaching its denouement. By a narrow margin of 29-27 the government passed its decision to get as much as 60% of uninsured deposits above 100,000 EUR from Cyprus’ two largest banks.
And then there’s the persistent rumor of an ECB rate cut. With manufacturing PMIs in the region disappointing expectations and the German economy showing wider cracks, many traders think that more stimulus, if not an interest rate cut, is required of the ECB.
The euro region isn’t scheduled to release reports today and France, Germany, and Italy are celebrating Labor Day holiday, so the euro’s price action will most likely depend on interest rate speculation and overall risk appetite. Watch your trades closely for any volatility spikes, aight?
Not even some banking holidays could keep the euro from rising up the charts yesterday! EUR/USD climbed up the charts yesterday, as it finally retested former highs around 1.3200. The question is, will it hold?
European markets were closed yesterday, but that didn’t stop the euro bulls from striking hard. Thanks to poor U.S. data, the euro found itself trading higher versus the dollar.
Interestingly though, some are saying that the anticipation of a rate cut by the ECB has also boosted the euro, which is quite odd, since lower rates normally weaken the domestic currency. In this case though, my young padawan forex noobs, their explanation would probably be that a rate cut could help boost sentiment in the euro zone, and thus, give the euro some short-term support.
For today, we could be in for a ton of action, which will start at the top of the London session, as Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMIs will be released. Word is that both PMIs improved slightly to 44.6 and 44.9 respectively, up from last month’s 44.2 and 44.5. Better-than-expected results could give the euro bulls more momentum to push higher.
Watch out later on at 12:30 pm GMT, when the ECB will be making its interest rate decision. If you’re scared of the volatility that this report may cause, there’s no shame in calling it an early day and watching from the sidelines! Whatever you decide to do, good luck trading today, homies!
Can you say, weak sauce?! The euro took a beating thanks to some rather dovish comments by ECB head honcho Draghi. After shooting above 1.3200, EUR/USD came crashing down, eventually finishing at 1.3066, down 118 pips from its opening price.
What a big day for the ECB! Not only did the ECB decide to cut rates by 25 basis points, but the central bank also said that it was considering negative deposit rates! Clearly, central banks are concerned about the state of weakness in the euro zone, and that’s why it looks like they want to step up their monetary policy game.
In any case, the euro dropped once Draghi started talking about negative deposit rates. The thinking is that the ECB ain’t done quite yet, and this may just be the beginning of a series of moves that the central bank will implement in hopes of juicing up the economy.
Will the sell-off continue? No biggies lined up today, but take note that Uncle Sam’s NFP report is headed our way during the New York session. Good luck trading homies!
“I get knocked down, but I get up again. You’re never gonna keep me down,” sang EUR/USD on Friday when the pair dipped to a low of 1.3034 then rallied back up to a high of 1.3159. Will it be able to stay above the 1.3100 mark for today?
Stronger than expected U.S. NFP data boosted the U.S. dollar against the euro right after the release of the report, but it wasn’t long before risk appetite kicked in and traders started buying up higher-yielding currencies. With that, EUR/USD was able to get back on its feet quickly and close higher for the day.
Take note though that the European Union recently lowered their growth forecasts for the euro zone, saying that annual GDP will shrink by 0.4% instead of the initial estimate of a 0.3% contraction. France, which was previously expected to grow by 0.1%, is now predicted to shrink by 0.1%. For now, however, euro pairs seem to be ignoring this downbeat news.
For today, euro zone will print a few PMI figures from Spain and Italy. Retail sales and Sentix investor confidence numbers for the entire region are also due in today’s London session. The big event for today could be ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech around 2:00 pm GMT as he could comment on the recent talks regarding negative interest rates for the euro zone. Stay on your toes!