Looks like the rally didn’t spill over into the new week, eh? Because of dovish remarks from ECB President Draghi, euro bulls took a small step back and allowed sellers to take control of the shared currency. At the end of the day, EUR/USD finished 44 pips lower at 1.3074, while EUR/JPY slid 17 pips to end at 129.90.
If only Draghi had eased up on the dovish comments, the euro might’ve avoided ending the day in the red! It was dealt a huge blow by the ECB head, who basically told the markets that the central bank is ready to ease if economic reports continue to disappoint. sniff sniff Is that the smell of negative deposit rates in the air? Hah!
Today, we’ll only have a few minor reports on deck. At 6:45 am GMT, France is expected to publish its industrial production report, which is slated to post a 0.2% decline. Meanwhile, Germany is set to release its latest factory orders data at 10:00 am GMT. Forecasts for this report aren’t any more upbeat, as a 0.4% drop is predicted.
These normally aren’t big market movers, but if these reports print worse-than-expected results, it would give traders more reason to dump the euro.
Whoa! Look at the euro soar… and drop. EUR/USD skyrocketed from its intraday low of 1.3067 to tap 1.3133 following a better-than-expected report from Germany. However, the rally wasn’t sustained. The pair dropped like a rock a couple of hours after to finish 3 pips above its opening price at 1.3077.
Contrary to what analysts were expecting, German factory orders posted a 2.2% uptick for March and topped expectations for a 0.4% contraction. The figure might have come off as a big surprise to markets, especially since recent PMI figures from Germany suggest that the economy is slowing down.
Perhaps more positive readings from the euro zone’s largest economy can help boost the euro. Later today, at 10:00 am GMT, the German industrial production report for March will be released and it is anticipated to print a 0.1% decline. A better-than-expected reading may once again spur the euro into a rally, so make sure you don’t miss it!
We got another strong performance from the euro, as the shared currency pummeled its safe haven counterparts. With help from strong German data, it was able to take EUR/USD 78 pips higher to 1.3156 while lifting EUR/JPY 49 pips higher to 130.17.
Surprise, surprise! Despite all the ugly reports Germany has been publishing as of late, industrial production actually picked up! Output unexpectedly increased by 1.2% in March, contrary to the 0.1% decline that most analysts had predicted. This seems to have relieved the euro from pressure brought about by recent weak economic data and dovishness from the ECB.
If you’re looking to trade more reports today, don’t hold your breath because European banks will be closed in celebration of Ascension Day. With that said, you might have to look elsewhere for your fix of news-tradable events. Check out our economic calendar to see what else is coming out today!
Rough day at the office for the euro, as it sank down the charts versus the dollar yesterday. EUR/USD gave back all its gains from the day before and then some, as it finished at 1.3032, marking a 123-pip loss for the day.
Thanks to the combination of a retracement in European stocks as well as a strong bullish dollar move, we saw EUR/USD take that hit yesterday. Interestingly, EUR/JPY finally broke this week’s resistance lines, as yen pairs were weaker across the board. This indicates to me that it is the underlying fundamentals of each major currency that is driving the markets right now, and not merely risk sentiment.
No hard data scheduled for release today, but do keep an eye out for the G7 meetings. With quite a few central banks making some changes to monetary policy in the past month, it’ll be interesting to see what G7 hotshots will say. Who knows, we might just hear accusations of currency manipulation!
Same results, different day! Once again, the tides favored the sellers as EUR/USD continued its slide on the charts. After trading as low as 1.2935, the pair bounced back slightly, greeting the weekend at 1.2985 to seal a 47-pip loss on the day.
And it looks as though traders aren’t done dumping the euro yet! The shared currency is off to a weak start this week, with EUR/USD gapping down 18 pips over the weekend. But perhaps it will receive a boost later today as the Eurogroup meetings are scheduled to start. If I were you, I’d watch the news closely for developments because European leaders might just make some surprise announcements on what they plan to do to boost the economy.
Later this week, we have other heavy reports to look forward to. For instance, tomorrow we’ll take a look at the ZEW economic sentiment surveys, which are expected to print improvements thanks in part to a rebound in European stocks.
Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the euro zone GDP report will be available. According to forecasts, we should expect the economy to contract by 0.1% in Q1 2013. Since the economy shrunk by 0.6% in Q4 2012, another negative figure for the euro zone would translate to its sixth straight quarter of recession. Yikes! But then again, a surprise positive reading could serve as a catalyst for a major reversal on EUR/USD. In any case, this is a report y’all shouldn’t miss!
Doji alert! The euro managed to hold its ground against the dollar in yesterday’s trading. EUR/USD found support just above the 1.2950 minor psychological handle all throughout the day before closing with a 2-pip gain at 1.2969. Meanwhile, against the yen, it scored a 4-pip win win EUR/JPY finished at 132.11.
Don’t get too excited about the euro’s wins though. Without any economic data on tap yesterday, its measly gains could be nothing more than just a bit of profit-taking and luck.
Today’s trading will definitely be more interesting for the euro with the German ZEW Economic Sentiment report on tap at 9:00 am GMT. The report for May is eyed to show an improvement in sentiment among investors and analysts with the forecast up at 39.5 versus April’s reading of 36.3. Meanwhile, the euro zone-wide version of the report is eyed to come in at 27.3.
Along with it, the region’s industrial production report will also be released. Analysts have estimated the reading for March at 0.6%.
Better-than-expected readings will probably get the shared currency rallying, so make sure you don’t miss them!
When will the pain ever end? EUR/USD once again found itself holding on to the short end of the stick yesterday, falling significantly below the 1.3000 major psychological handle. By the end of the U.S. trading session, the pair was 1.2936, down from where it had opened at 1.2969.
EUR/USD sold-off due to the disappointing German ZEW survey. The survey printed a reading of 36.4, much lower than the forecast of 40.0. According to the ZEW President, the economic situation in the euro zone was poor, and that the survey reflected the recent surprise ECB rate cut.
The Industrial Production report came in better than expected though. It showed a 1.0% rise instead of the 0.6% gain the market had initially predicted. It was also an improvement from the previous month’s 0.3% increase.
Today is an important day for EUR/USD as the euro zone’s GDP report is scheduled to be published. Analysts have predicted that the euro zone probably contracted 0.1% in Q1 2013. If forecast holds, it would put the euro zone in negative growth for one whole year. From how weak EUR/USD has been, traders could see the dismal expectations as another reason to sell the pair.
I’m seeing red! Weaker than expected euro zone GDP data triggered a sharp selloff for the euro in yesterday’s trading, pushing EUR/USD below the 1.2900 major psychological support. Will the bloodbath continue today?
The euro zone entered its sixth quarter in recession with a worse than expected contraction of 0.2%, weaker than the estimated 0.1% drop in growth. Germany, the region’s largest economy, posted a mere 0.1% uptick in GDP while France, the second largest economy, showed a 0.2% decline. This set of downbeat figures could eventually convince the ECB to implement negative deposit rates or increase their asset purchases in order to boost economic activity.
Only a few medium-tier reports are on tap from the euro zone today, and these are the CPI and trade balance. The headline CPI is expected to show a 1.2% annual increase in price levels while the core CPI could print a 1.0% rise. Meanwhile, the region’s trade surplus is projected to narrow from 12.0 billion EUR to 11.8 billion EUR for March, reflecting a downturn in trade activity. Keep an eye out for those releases during today’s London session!
The slew of negative data from the U.S. enabled the euro to push back versus the strong dollar yesterday. EUR/USD opened the day at 1.2879 and then ended the day barely changed at 1.2877. The pair, as a result, formed a doji on the daily.
Reports released in the euro zone was mostly as expected. Both the core and headline CPIs were in line with forecast, printing readings of 1.0% and 1.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, the euro zone trade balance came in higher than consensus with a 18.7 billion EUR surplus. The market had only anticipated an 11.8 billion EUR surplus.
Euro zone’s forex calendar has nothing to offer us today, but the U.S. is set to publish the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. It’s anticipated to show a reading of 77.9, which, if holds, will be a slight improvement from the previous month’s 76.4. It’ll be released at 1:55 pm GMT.
With the euro region out of the spotlight, it was easy for the common currency to snatch some pips on its counterparts. EUR/USD had bowed to dollar strength, but EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, and even EUR/CHF showed gains. What’s up with that?
Well, it certainly didn’t hurt that the euro region’s trade balance data came in better-than-expected. Trade surplus in March shot up by 18.7 billion EUR, which is way higher than the expected 11.8 billion EUR and last month’s upwardly revised 12.7 billion EUR figure.
Let’s see if the euro will be as lucky this week. France and Germany are celebrating Whit Monday today, but over the next couple of days we’ll see manufacturing and services PMI numbers from the region’s peripheral countries and a few major reports from Germany, the euro zone’s largest economy.
Good luck in your trades this week!
After taking a beating last week, the euro got off to a nice yesterday, as it was able to recover and push ahead. After testing 1.2800 late last week, EUR/USD finished yesterday at 1.2889, up a decent 56 pips on the day.
No data was released yesterday, and with only the German PPI report hitting the markets at 6:00 am (expectations of a 0.1% decline) it could be another day of recovery for the euro. Keep an eye out for equity markets as well as overall sentiment for clues as to what direction the euro may trade today.
Up, up, here we go! The euro was able to muscle its way up the charts for another day. EUR/USD closed above the 1.2900 major psychological handle, clocking in a 16-pip gain at 1.2906. Meanwhile, against the yen, it finished with a 51-pip win at 132.29.
Only the German PPI report for April was released which came in worse than the expected -0.1% reading at -0.2%. But it didn’t seem to matter to the euro bulls.
For the most part, analysts think that the euro’s gains yesterday could have been nothing more than just profit-taking ahead of the much anticipated BOJ statement and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech which are due today.
Only the second-tier EZ current account for March (estimated at 14.2 billion EUR) will be released later at 8:00 am GMT and the data could once again take the backseat to the events due for the euro’s counterparts.
Be careful, ayt?
After two days of reprieve, the euro was back in the red versus the dollar again yesterday. The EUR/USD pair started the day at 1.2906, rose to an intraday high of 1.2999, and then fell back down to close the day at 1.2856.
In a surprising testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in front of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, a warning was issued that the “premature tightening of monetary policy could lead interest rates to rise temporarily but would also carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery and causing inflation to fall further.”
The warning was generally interpreted by the market as a sign that the Fed might not tighten its open-ended QE program any time soon. But towards the end of his speech, Bernanke hinted that the central bank could actually tighten within the next few meetings if the economy improves. This, of course, was bullish for the dollar.
In other news, the euro zone current account report for March managed to beat forecast. It came in with a 25.9 billion EUR surplus, which was much higher than the forecast of 14.2 billion EUR surplus. It was also a welcome improvement from February’s 14.6 billion EUR surplus (revised down from 16.3 billion EUR).
Beginning at 7:00 am GMT, PMIs from different countries in the euro zone will come out. Individually, they do not have a big impact on price action, but if they all show the same result (all are better than expected for example), they can move the euro.
The euro emerged from yesterday’s trading battles with mixed results. On one hand, EUR/USD rose 83 pips to finish at 1.2938, completely erasing the previous day’s losses. On the other hand, EUR/JPY traded as low as 129.97 before finally settling at 131.72, down 59 pips from its opening price.
The euro may have gotten a boost from an improvement in French, German, and euro zone manufacturing PMIs. They all printed slightly better than expected, although they do remain below the line-in-the-sand 50.0 mark. But hey, I guess it was still good enough to lift the spirits of the euro bulls!
For today, we’ve got the German IFO business climate report headed our way at 8:00 am GMT. Early forecasts are expecting a slight improvement from 104.4 to 104.6. If we get a drastically different result, we could see some more wild moves on euro pairs during the London session.
Saved by the German data! The euro might have ended its winning streak against its counterparts last Friday, but it had also avoided heavy losses. EUR/USD only slipped by 4 pips while EUR/JPY’s slide was contained to 95 pips.
Concerns of more easing from the ECB weighed on the common currency early in the day, but the losses were soon limited when Germany printed its economic reports. Not only did Germany’s consumer climate index pop up to 6.5 from 6.2, but its IfO business climate also came in at 105.7 when many were expecting a 104.6 reading. Last but definitely not the least was Germany’s final GDP, which still showed growth with a 0.1% rate.
Today the euro zone is taking a chill pill as no economic data is scheduled for release. Get ready for the next couple of days though, as we’ll see bond auctions in Spain and Italy, as well as retail sales and employment numbers from Germany, Italy, France, and the whole euro zone region.
With our homies in the U.K. and U.S. celebrating bank holidays, euro price action was extremely limited. After an entire day of trading, EUR/USD finished unchanged at 1.2934, while EUR/JPY ended just 26 pips lower at 130.72.
The truth of the matter is, the euro didn’t really have much of a reason to move yesterday. There was no breaking news, no economic reports from the euro zone – no nothing! And judging by the economic calendar, we may get more of the same today because the euro zone won’t be making any new releases once again.
However, y’all should keep in mind that U.K. and U.S. traders will be returning from a three-day weekend today. We could see higher volatility as the London and New York sessions open as traders re-establish their positions. Be careful out there, folks!
Rough day for the euro, as it took a hit to the gut and dropped to the canvas versus the Greenback. After opening at 1.2934, EUR/USD ended trading at 1.2863, finishing the day down 71 pips.
One reason why the euro may have taken a hit was due to comments made by ECB board member Peter Praet, who said that the ECB still had some moves up its sleeves. According to Praet, the ECB could conceivably cut interest rates and even install negative deposit rates should conditions warrant it.
Remember, when ECB Governor Draghi brought up the idea of negative deposit rates a couple months back, it weighed heavily on the euro. Should such rumors gain traction in coming months, it could really send the shared currency into a downward spiral.
For today, watch out for the German unemployment change report due at 7:55 am GMT. Word on the street is that another 4,000 people lost their jobs last month, same as the previous month. If we see a bigger figure than this, it may trigger another euro sell-off, so be careful trading today!
Bad data? That ain’t a problem for the euro! Well, at least it wasn’t in yesterday’s trading. The shared currency traded higher against the dollar despite disappointing figures from the euro zone. EUR/USD bounced off 1.2850 to close the day with a 79-pip gain at 1.2941.
The German unemployment change report showed that the number of people who lost jobs was more than the figure that analysts expected. It printed at 21,000 versus the 4,000 forecast. Yikes!
On the more positive side of things though, the country’s preliminary CPI report for May came in twice the consensus at 0.4%.
Some analysts say that the euro’s move yesterday was nothing more than just simple profit-taking. So without any economic reports on tap on our forex calendar today, it might help to gauge market sentiment when trading. If profit-taking in U.S. equity markets continue, we may just see EUR/USD trade past 1.3000!
Boo yeah! EUR/USD successfully landed back above the 1.3000 major psychological level and consolidated around 1.3050. EUR/JPY had its own share of gains as it edged closer to 132.00. Can the euro hold on to its recent gains?
There were no major reports from the euro zone yesterday, leaving EUR/USD vulnerable to U.S. data. As it turns out, the U.S. Q1 GDP figure was revised down from 2.5% to 2.4%, triggering a dollar selloff.
For today, euro zone’s two largest economies are set to print their consumer spending reports starting 7:00 am GMT. After that, Italy will release its jobs data for the first quarter of the year and possibly show no change to its 11.2% unemployment rate. A few hours later, the euro zone will report its CPI estimate and its jobless rate for April.
With plenty of medium-tier reports due from the euro zone, the euro could have a chance at staying above the 1.3000 mark if the actual figures come in stronger than expected. However, if the results disappoint, EUR/USD may find itself falling back to its previous lows.
Now you see it, now you don’t! The euro failed to sustain its intraweek gains against its counterparts as data from Germany and the euro zone limited demand for the common currency.
EUR/USD dropped to an intraday low of 1.2944 before leveling off with only a 45-pip loss. Meanwhile, EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP also slipped to the tune of 83 pips and 11 pips respectively.
Even before the U.S. printed upside surprises in its consumer sentiment reports, the currency bears already had lots of reasons to sell the euro. For one thing, Germany’s retail sales showed a 0.4% decline when analysts had been expecting a 0.3% uptick. Both of Italy’s monthly and quarterly employment data also came in worse-than-expected. But perhaps what sealed the deal for the bears was that the euro zone’s unemployment rate had once again broken a new high as it clocked in at 12.2% after coming in at 12.1% last month.
Will data from the region continue to weigh on the euro? Scheduled today from 7:15 am GMT to 8:00 am GMT are Spain and Italy’s manufacturing PMIs as well as the euro zone’s final manufacturing PMI. Spain is expected to show a weaker figure than Italy’s PMI, but with both countries showing weak employment prospects, I won’t be surprised if we see weak PMI readings today.
Keep an eye on your euro trades, fellas!