The Swissy was somewhat flat yesterday as it just traded within a 50-pip range against the greenback. Still, it was able to log in some modest gains. The USDCHF fell and closed at 1.0686 from 1.0705.
Yesterday, the Swiss National Bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.25% saying that there is no risk of inflation as of the moment. The country’s CPI softened at an annualized 0.9% in February which is well within the central bank’s inflation target band. Still, the bank stated that they will not keep their accommodative stance as the economy shows some signs of improvements.
The CHF lost some support following the report but it was able to gain it losses back during the latter part of the US session.
The Swissy could once again trade in a range-bound fashion given the lack of economic flows from Switzerland. The release of the US’s retail sales and UoM consumer confidence index, however, could cause some volatility to the USDCHF pair. Upbeat results could benefit the non-dollar currencies like the Swissy.
Thanks to a surge in risk appetite, the Swissy found itself on the long end of the stick last Friday. The USDCHF closed out that day at 1.0583, almost 150 pips lower from its week open price.
Today, at 8:15 GMT, await the release of Switzerland’s producer price index (PPI). The PPI, which is mainly used as a leading indicator of inflation, measures the average percentage increase (or decrease) in the selling price of various consumer goods by producers. The expectation is a rise of 0.1% in February, slightly lower than the 0.3% increase seen the month before.
Looking ahead the week, Switzerland’s economic cupboard lacks any hard-hitting data but this doesn’t mean we won’t be seeing any other economic reports! I’ll be detailing these reports throughout the week so stay tuned!
The USDCHF rose yesterday, as the dollar ruled yesterday’s forex fights. The pair closed slightly higher at 1.0619, marking a gain of 45 pips.
The Swiss producer price index released yesterday showed a surprising result, as it indicated that consumer prices fell by 0.3% last month. It was expected that prices would rise by 0.1%.
Still, much like other Swiss data as of late, currency traders weren’t quite interested in this data. The Swissy is more likely to be affected by overall sentiment, especially towards that of the euro, which is it highly correlated to.
One thing to note however is that the EURCHF is now trading at a one year low at around 1.4520. Take note that in the past, the Swiss National Bank has intervened whenever the price fell below 1.4600. Some however, believe that with recent data showing improvements in the global economies, that the chances that currency intervention will take place are lower. In any case, I’ll keep you posted on any developments from the SNB.
Today at 6:45 pm GMT, the SECO economic forecasts reports will be released. The quarterly report tries to forecast the outlook of major GDP components like consumption and investment, as well as trying to predict future employment and inflation. If the report shows that the Swiss economy’s outlook is looking much better, who knows – traders may look at the CHF as an alternative to euro.
The Swiss franc seemed to be on a sugar high yesterday as it bolted faster than the greenback, pushing the USDCHF to a low of 1.0539 during the US session. Too much Swiss chocolate, perhaps?
The Swiss government gave a more upbeat outlook for their economy as they raised their 2010 GDP growth forecast to 1.4%. Furthermore, they expect GDP to climb by 2% in 2011. Although the government warned that the economic expansion could slow once the stimulus measures are removed, they confirmed that recovery was underway. They also noted that they are already seeing improvements in the country’s labor market. Hooray for Switzerland!
Aside from that, yesterday’s FOMC statement resulted to greenback selling when the Fed announced that they would still be keeping rates low for an extended period of time. This allowed the franc to push for more gains.
Switzerland won’t be releasing any economic reports today so keep an eye out for US data that could cause a shift in risk sentiment. PPI and core PPI are on the US docket today.
The Swissy was able to edge the greenback and the euro once again in yesterday’s currency showdown. The USDCHF fell to as low as 1.0507 before closing at 1.0541 from 1.0547. The EURCHF, on the other hand, hit a new 16-month low when it fell to 1.4475 from 1.4522. Will the Swiss National Bank intervene soon to halt the CHF’s ascent?
No economic reports were released in Switzerland yesterday. Though, it looks like the issue between Germany and Greece is still very much fresh in the minds of investors yesterday. The other day, German President Angela Merkel said that the German government should think carefully first before aiding the debt-stricken Greece. This caused a weakness in the EUR, leading investors back to the safety of the CHF.
Today, several mid tier reports will be coming out of Switzerland. First is the country’s February trade balance report which is expected to have narrowed slightly to CHF2.37 billion from CHF2.42 billion. The account will be out at 7:15 am GMT. Switzerland’s 4Q industrial production, which will be released an hour later, is seen to have gained again by 5.1% on top of its 3.4% expansion during the previous period.
At 10:00 am GMT, the country’s Zew economic expectations index for the month of March will be due. The index printed a score of 52.5 in February. The optimism in Swizerland’s economy could be highlighted more due to the surrounding issues in the euro zone. Hence, we could probably see the index print a higher score for March. Such could give the Swissy some additional support.
But like I mentioned earlier, the SNB could be just around the corner to intervene in the market and weaken the CHF especially now that the currency is already approaching historical highs versus the euro. The SNB favors a weak CHF because a strong one would cause inflation and undermine their exports.
The Swissy found itself dazed and confused in yesterday’s trading session. The currency was able to edge up against the euro, but failed to rally strongly versus the dollar. The EURCHF is currently trading below the 1.4400 handle, very near to its all-time low of 1.4300. Will the SNB intervene soon?
No data coming out today but keep an eye, an ear, and possibly even your nose open for any sign of currency intervention from the SNB. Recall that in its last statement the bank renewed its commitment to “act decisively to prevent an excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro.”
I think now would be a good time to read up on Forex Gump’s blog. In his blog he discusses the possible market intervention of the Swiss National Bank as well as some important technical levels.
The Swissy got taken to school on Friday, as the dollar bus sped away! The USDCHF closed the day at 1.0614, up 30 pips from its opening price.
No hard data coming out from Switzerland this week, but look out for the SNB quarterly bulletin due today as well as SNB Chairman Philip Hildebrand’s speech tomorrow at 7:30 am GMT. He may talk about the strong appreciation of the CHF. If you take a look at the EURCHF, the pair is at an ALL TIME LOW. Could we see some currency intervention take place soon? Maybe, just maybe!
Even though it was off to a slow start, the Swissy was able to rally and end higher against the greenback yesterday. The USDCHF fell from a high of 1.0662 to a low of 1.0562 - that’s a hundred pips! - during the US session.
In its quarterly bulletin released yesterday, the SNB revealed that it will take necessary steps to prevent an excessive appreciation of the Swissy against the euro. According to them, their current monetary policy cannot be maintained without compromising long-term price stability. Although they pointed out that short-term price stability isn’t in jeopardy, the danger of deflation is still present.
Despite these cautious comments, the Swiss franc was able to take advantage of greenback weakness, which was most likely a result of the newly-approved US health care bill. This legislation gave rise to doubts as to how the US government would fund the additional expenditures, causing many to think that higher taxes could be levied.
Moving along, SNB Governing Board Chairman Philipp Hildebrand is due to testify on the central bank’s monetary policy during the financial crisis. Watch out for hints on their future monetary policy during his speech at 7:30 am GMT today.
The Swissy closed mixed against the greenback yesterday but it was able to deliver the euro another beating. The EURCHF is now trading around 1.4240 which is its new 15-year low! Will the Swiss National Bank intervene soon?
In his speech yesterday, SNB Governing Board Chairman Philipp Hildebrand said that the SNB will indeed step in the forex market to prevent the rapid rise of the Swissy against the euro to prevent a possible deflation in Switzerland. The Swissy has been appreciating against the euro since Switzerland has a relatively more stable economy compared to the euro zone, which has been plagued by debt issues. Given his statement, look out for a possible spike in the price of the EURCHF in the next couple of weeks.
No major economic reports will be issued today in Switzerland. The euro zone, France, and Germany, however, will release their flash PMI figures. Weak numbers in these accounts could lead to a rise in the Swissy once again.
Just like the euro, the Swissy found itself getting sold off on the news that Portugal’s credit rating was downgraded by Fitch. The USDCHF ended the US trading session at 1.0727, almost 150 pips higher from its Asian session opening price.
No economic data was released yesterday and none will be coming out today either so expect the Swissy to be driven primarily by news coming out of other major economies, particularly the US and the euro zone.
After it looked like the Swissy was going to make a comeback, it lost track and ended up once again on the losing side versus the dollar. The USDCHF closed slightly higher at 1.0743.
The franc has been getting caught up in all the hoopla surrounding the euro zone. Remember, the franc and the euro are highly correlated – thus, whenever the euro is plagued by any problems, it also affects franc trading. With the EU summit coming to an end today, will we see the spill over effect continue today?
The Swissy put up a valiant fight last Friday, struggling to put an end to the greenback’s raids. The USDCHF was unable to move past the 1.0750 mark and retreated to a low of 1.0636 instead.
Three important economic reports are due from Switzerland this week. On Tuesday, the UBS consumption indicator is set for release at 6:00 am GMT. The consumption indicator climbed from 1.20 to 1.36 in January and could post another uptick for February. On Wednesday, the KOF economic barometer is on deck. This combined reading of Swiss economic indicators is expected to rise from 1.87 to 1.91 in March, reflecting an improvement in Switzerland’s economy. Lastly, on Thursday, Switzerland will release its SVME PMI, which could land at 58.9 in March.
Better than expected figures could allow the Swissy to stay resilient against the greenback. Keep an eye out for top-tier US economic reports due this week, namely the core PCE index, ISM manufacturing PMI, and non-farm payrolls!
The Swissy had a bad hair day yesterday as it slumped against both the EUR and the USD. The EURCHF rose to and closed at 1.4321 from 1.4279. Similarly, the USDCHF also reached 1.0624 from 1.0592.
Switzerland did not release any economic reports yesterday. Last Friday, a bailout plan, which included an IMF aid and other bilateral loans, for the debt-stricken Greece was finally agreed upon. Confidence in the euro resurfaced following the news and even throughout Monday.
Today (7:00 am GMT), Switzerland’s UBS consumption indicator will be published. The index logged in a score of 1.36 in January. Given Switzerland’s improving economic condition, the index could register a higher score again for the month of February. An uptick in this account could give the Swissy some support.
The Swissy, much like the euro, failed to hold its ground against the greenback in yesterday’s trading session. The USDCHF, which started the Asian trading session at 1.0624, closed the day higher at 1.0668.
The UBS consumption indicator released yesterday printed a reading of 1.20 for March, lower than February’s revised down 1.32 reading. This indicates that consumers grew less pessimistic about their financial standing and outlook towards the Swiss economy.
On the docket today is the KOF economic barometer is due for release today. It is expected to print a reading of 1.91 for March, higher than the previous month’s 1.87. The KOF economic barometer predicts the direction of Switzerland’s economy for the next six months through the use of 12 economic indicators. If the actual figure comes in higher, we could see some buying support for the Swissy.
The Swissy bulls took advantage of the dollar’s weakness in yesterdays trading rounds, bring down the USDCHF pair to monthly lows. My question is, will the 1.0500 handle hold?
Yesterday, the KOF economic barometer was released, printing a slightly better than expected reading. The index posted a score of 1.93, while consensus was for a score of 1.91. This indicates that economy is expected to pick up in the next 6 months. It will be interesting to see how traders trade the franc in coming months, given the recent developments in the euro zone.
Remember, one reason why the franc has appreciated as of late is because of euro weakness. As investors became scared to invest in euro zone assets, they decided to move their funds into Swiss financial assets. If more debt concerns prop up in the euro zone, this could benefit the franc down the line.
Later today, the SVME purchasing managers index is due at 7:30 am GMT. The index measures business sentiment amongst Swissy businessmen. Scores above 50.0 indicate expansion while scores below 50.0 suggest contraction. The index is expected to post a score of 58.7, which would be an improvement over the last month’s reading of 57.4.
The Swissy got trampled on during the greenback’s NFP parade last Friday, pushing the USDCHF to a high of 1.0644 during the US session. Meanwhile, the EURCHF spiked back to the 1.4400 area as SNB officials commented on the recent appreciation of the Swissy.
After dipping to a low of 1.4143 last week, the EURCHF bounced up when SNB board member Jean-Pierre Danthine announced that the central bank will take measures to prevent the excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc. He added that the SNB has the tools to achieve exchange rate stability, leading many to think that the central bank could continue to flood the markets with francs to keep its value from rising.
On the economic front, Switzerland is set to release a few top-tier reports this week. It will report its CPI on Tuesday 7:15 am GMT and could print another 0.1% increase in price levels for March.
On Wednesday, Switzerland will report its retail sales figure for the month of February. An annualized 3.8% rise is expected, which is less than the 4.4% growth seen in January. A weaker than expected figure could cause the Swissy to lose more ground against the USD and EUR.
Switzerland will release its unemployment rate on Thursday 5:45 am GMT. Their jobless rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1% during the month of March, implying that their labor market has yet to show some improvements.
No economic reports are due from Switzerland on Friday but SNB board member Danthine is scheduled to deliver a speech at 12:00 pm GMT. If he gives another round of comments concerning the franc’s appreciation, the EURCHF could spike even higher while the USDCHF could continue its recent rally. Bear in mind that the US has a bunch of high-impact reports also due this week and these are the ISM non-manufacturing PMI, pending home sales, and FOMC minutes. Be careful out there!
Pretty slow day for trading, as European traders were off enjoying the holidays, wining and dining. The USDCHF traded within a range of just 60 pips, closing 11 pips higher at 1.0626.
At 7:15 am GMT, the Swiss consumer price index is scheduled for release. It is expected that prices rose by 0.1% in March. Still, this probably won’t have too much an effect on the markets. Be on the lookout though, for some strong moves as European traders come back from the long weekend. We might see more follow through in the equities markets, and possibly more dollar buying as traders reposition themselves after last Friday’s US unemployment report.
The Swissy turned out to be one of the biggest losers in yesterday’s trading session. The USCHF ended the US trading session 1.0691, 70 pips higher from its opening price during the Asian session.
Switzerland’s consumer price index (0.1% for March) yesterday came in line with expectations but news from Greece once again indirectly pulled the Swissy down. Apparently, rumor broke out that Greek officials wanted to renegotiate the IMF/EU joint aid plan because the rules were too tough for them. At the end of the day, however, the rumors proved to be nothing but rumors when a Greek official denied the news.
Switzerland’s economic cupboard only offers the retail sales report at 7:15 am GMT. It is predicted to show that sales rose 3.8% in February, slightly lower than the 4.4% growth seen the month before. If the actual figure comes in higher, the Swissy would probably get some buying support. On the other hand, if the actual figure turns out to be weaker than expected, the USDCHF could retest resistance at yesterday’s highs.
The USDCHF rose once again, as the combination of poor Swiss data and risk aversion pushed the pair higher. The pair continued its upward trek, closing yesterday at 1.0733.
Swiss retail sales figures came in slightly disappointing, as they failed to meet consensus of a 3.8% rise last February. Retail sales growth was at just 3.2% on an annualized basis. This led to more franc weakness, allowing the USDCHF to push through the previous day’s highs.
No high impact reports coming out today, but watch out for the ECB and BOE statements due during the European session. Chances are, we’ll probably see tons of volatility, so be careful! You don’t want to get smothered by an avalanche of strong moves!
Thanks to the round of risk appetite late in the US session, the Swiss franc was able to regain the ground it lost early in the day. The USDCHF ended the day at 1.0738, just four pips higher from its Asian session open price.
Yesterday, Switzerland’s unemployment report revealed that joblessness in the country from 4.4% in February to 4.2% in March as approximately 7,000 workers were newly hired during the month. However, the seasonally adjusted jobless rate still held steady at 4.1% in March as expected.
No economic reports are due from Switzerland today but stay tuned for SNB Governing Board Member Jean-Pierre Danthine’s speech at 12:00 pm GMT. Last month, Danthine refused to comment on the hot topic that is the possibility of central bank intervention given the Swiss franc’s appreciation. Instead, he chose to focus on confirming that the SNB’s current monetary policy is appropriate for the present market conditions. If he echoes the same remarks during his speech tomorrow, the Swissy could have an opportunity to pare its recent losses.