The swissy, alongside the euro, were the two currencies that weakened against the dollar in yesterday’s trading. The USDCHF went to as high as 1.0784 from 1.0684 before settling at 1.0711.
Consumer prices in Switzerland dropped slightly again by 0.1% in January on top of the previous month’s 0.2% decline. The CPI, however, was initially seen to be at -0.4%. On a year-on-year basis, the CPI is pegged at 1.0%.
The better-than-expected result, however, did not benefit the swissy at all. As mentioned earlier, the swissy weakened alongside the euro as market participants tuned in to the EU economic summit yesterday.
No economic reports are scheduled in Switzerland today. Still, the swissy could experience some volatility later because of the release of Germany’s 4Q GDP. Germany is seen to have expanded by a modest 0.2% during the last quarter of 2009. Since Germany is Switzerland’s biggest market in the EU, a better-than-expected growth in Germany could also reflect positively on the swissy and vice versa.
The Swissy ended the last week on a sour note, losing a bit of ground against the dollar. The USDCHF ended the week at 1.0766, around 50 pips higher from its week open price.
On the docket today, at 8:15 am GMT, is the producer price index for the month of January. The producer price index measures the monthly percentage increase or decrease of goods and raw materials manufacturers buy from their suppliers. Generally speaking, the PPI is seen as a leading indicator because businesses tend to pass on increased costs to their customers. The prediction is another measly rise of 0.1% in prices, indicating that inflation remains weak.
On Thursday, watch out for the Switzerland’s trade balance (7:15 am GMT) and the ZEW economic expectations survey (10:00 am GMT).
The trade balance measures the net difference in value between exported and imported goods, is expected. It is expected to print a 1.79 billion CHF surplus for the month of January, up the 1.36 billion CHF surplus seen the month before. A rising trade balance is usually seen as bullish for the domestic currency because foreigners must buy the Swiss franc to purchase the nation’s export.
Meanwhile, the ZEW economic expectations is a survey designed to see whether economists, analysts and investors are optimistic or pessimistic about the current state and the outlook of Switzerland’s economy. A reading above base line 0 means there are more optimists than pessimists. It gave a reading of 56.2 in January… Could we it edge higher this month?
It seemed like everyone was off skiing at the Swiss Alps yesterday, as we barely saw any movement in the markets. The USDCHF basically didn’t move, closing just 5 pips higher after trading withing an area of just 50 pips.
The Swiss producer price index revealed that manufacturers paid 0.3% more for goods and raw materials from their suppliers. This was slightly higher than the projected increase of 0.1%. This could be a turning point for Swiss inflation, which has remained subdued the past few months.
Nothing coming out today, but watch out for the ZEW economic sentiment reports coming out from the euro zone today at 10:00 am GMT. Given the tight trading yesterday, if the reports show that sentiment has waned in the euro zone, it could cause another dollar rally, which may put downward pressure on the CHF as well.
Risk hungry investors gobbled up the Swiss chocolate, errr, Swiss franc yesterday, causing the USDCHF to fall to the 1.0660 area. Upbeat economic figures from the US spurred traders to dump the safe-havens in favor of higher-yielding currencies.
Switzerland didn’t release any economic reports yesterday but the Swissy was still able to benefit from the surge in risk tolerance. Their economic calendar is empty again today so keep an eye out for US economic reports that could have a huge impact on risk sentiment. Mind you, the US has a lot on its plate today. I’m talking about the building permits, housing starts, capacity utilization, industrial production, import prices, FOMC minutes, and Federal budget balance… Whew!
Tomorrow, Switzerland’s trade balance is set for release at 7:15 am GMT. It could show that the trade surplus widened from 1.36 billion CHF to 1.72 billion CHF in January, implying that exports outpaced imports during the month. A better than expected figure could place the Swissy in a better position to take advantage of US dollar weakness.
The Switzerland Swissys completely blew its huge lead and eventually turned over the game to the US Greenbacks. What a letdown! The USDCHF climbed from 1.0662 all the way up to close at 1.0780.
No economic reports were due in Switzerland yesterday. The greenback started a technical rally during the beginning of the European session. It capped its run when the most recent FOMC meeting minutes showed that the Fed has raised its GDP forecast to 3.0% from 3.2% in 2010.
Switzerland’s trade balance in January will be due later at 7:15 am GMT. The country’s trade surplus is seen to have expanded to CHF1.79 billion from CHF1.36 billion. Though with all the issues (Greek debt, weak German growth, contraction in Spain) surrounding the euro zone as of late, seeing a CHF430 million addition in Swiss trade surplus could be a little too optimistic.
The Swissy experienced a nasty fall late in the US session yesterday when the speculation that the Fed would raise rates earlier than expected popped up in the markets. The USDCHF just breached the last week’s high at 1.0829 early today and is currently consolidating just a couple of pips below 1.0900.
Switzerland’s trade balance managed to come out better-than-expected surplus yesterday. It showed a surplus of 2.42 billion CHF in January, almost double the surplus seen the month prior. Don’t think this was positive data though… If you were to look into the report, you’d find out that it was actually the sharp 6.9% drop in imports that pushed the trade balance to post such a large surplus.
The ZEW economic expectations survey also came out with ugly results as it printed a reading of 52.5, lower than the 56.2 reading seen in January. The means that investors and analysts got less optimistic about the state of Switzerland’s economy this February.
No data coming out of Switzerland today so the Swissy’s price action would most likely be driven by news coming out of other major economies, most especially those from the euro zone and the US.
Much like the euro, the Swissy ended dead even against the USD, as the USDCHF pair closed at its weekly opening price of 1.0770. Will we see more of the same this week?
Tomorrow at 7:00 am GMT, the UBS consumption indicator index is due. The index printed a reading of 1.20 in its last release. If the report comes out better than expected, it may boost the CHF a little bit.
No other economic reports coming out over the next few days, so watch out for shifts in risk sentiment. Look out for any news coming out from the euro zone, especially regarding Greece. Take note that the euro and franc are highly correlated, so if we continue to see euro weakness, it may lead to some franc selling as well.
Trading was so choppy yesterday that it could slice Swiss cheese into smithereens! The USDCHF barely moved from its tight range from 1.0750 to 1.0790 since the lack of economic reports on deck drowned out the volatility from the markets.
Switzerland will be releasing its UBS economic indicator at 7:00 am GMT today. The index dipped from 1.28 to 1.20 in December but we could see a rebound for January. After all, the indicator has been climbing since August 2009.
Keep an eye out for economic reports from the US, namely the S&P house price index and the CB consumer confidence index. A smaller decline in house prices is expected for December while consumer confidence in February is projected to worsen. Could we see a run of risk aversion then?
The Swissy, like the other anti-dollars, lost its grip and slipped versus the greenback in yesterday’s session. The USDCHF rose to 1.0842 from 1.0760.
Switzerland’s UBS consumption indicator rose to 1.36 in January from 1.19. An uptick in this account indicates an improvement in consumer spending which takes up a chunk of Switzerland’s total output.
The swissy rose as soon as the upbeat number was published.
Things started to turn bitter, however, for the swissy when risk aversion surfaced given the depressing business climate reading in Germany and Belgium. The UK’s lackluster mortgage approvals number also contributed to the overall market weakness.
Switzerland’s calendar is report-free today. The swissy, though, could still take a hit if Germany’s revised GDP turns out to be worse than predicted. Germany’s 4Q GDP is expected to remain the same at 0.0%.
The Swissy’s price action yesterday was pretty wacky yesterday, climbing initially during the Asian and European session but completely reversing its gains once the US session went underway. The USDCHF ended the day at 1.0810, a mere 40 pips lower.
On today’s economic cupboard, we’ve got the employment level report. The employment level report tallies the number of people who are employed in a given quarter. The forecast for the final quarter of 2009 currently stands at 3.95 million, slightly lower than the 3.96 million seen the quarter before. If the actual figure comes in higher, we could see the Swissy garner some buying support.
The Swissy was able to over come some USD strength yesterday to pull ahead late in the US session. The USDCHF closed slightly lower at 1.0797.
Swiss employment data was released yesterday, printing a figure of 3.96 million. This was in line with figures from the previous couple of quarters, indicating that employment is stabilizing.
Later today, the KOF economic barometer index is due at 10:30 am GMT. The index is expected to print a score of 1.81, up from last month’s reading of 1.77. This implies that economic conditions in Switzerland are improving. However, given the recent concerns of its neighbouring European countries (ahem, Greece and Spain), could there be the chance that a spill over effect will dampen the outlook?
The Swissy ended its streak of losses against the greenback last Friday as the USDCHF reached a low of 1.0695. Was this a show of risk appetite or did the safe-haven rally simply take a quick break?
The Swiss KOF economic barometer outpaced the consensus of 1.81 and landed at 1.87 in February. This marks the indicator’s highest level in more than two years. Hooray for Switzerland! Furthermore, the reading for January was revised upwards from 1.77 to 1.81, implying that Switzerland’s economic condition is improving stronger than previously reported. Still, SNB Vice Chairman Thomas Jordan maintained that it was still too early to start tightening their monetary policy and implementing rate hikes.
Switzerland jumpstarts the month of March with the release of its SVME PMI for February. This indicator, due at 8:30 am GMT today, could print an uptick from 56.0 to 56.5, indicating that the purchasing managers included in the survey expect business conditions to keep on improving. If the actual figure surpasses the forecast again, the Swissy could carry on with its recent rally.
Come Tuesday, Switzerland will release its GDP reading for the last quarter of 2009. The economy is expected to keep out of the recession and print 0.4% growth, a notch higher than the 0.3% expansion seen in the third quarter.
Well, that’s it for Switzerland this week! While its GDP report could have a major impact on the Swissy’s price action, economic reports from the US could also have a significant effect on risk sentiment so you’d better keep an eye out for those. Mind you, the US has plenty of top-tier reports due this week. Aside from that, the developments on the Greek tragedy - I mean, Greek debt situation - could also affect the Swissy’s movement. After all, the correlation between the recent EUR and CHF behavior stands at 0.98. Pretty tight, if you ask me!
The start of the month did not look good at all for the Swissy as it slipped again against the greenback. The USDCHF settled and closed at 1.0795 after reaching a high of 1.0872 from 1.0718.
Switzerland’s February SVME PMI came in better than expected at 57.4 versus the 56.5 estimate. This uptick in the index suggests that majority of the purchasing managers who were surveyed answered that Switzerland’s business conditions are improving. Despite the jump in the index, the Swissy still stalled.
Today (6:45 pm GMT), Switzerland’s 4Q GDP will be released. Switzerland’s economy is expected to have expanded by 0.4% during the period after already gaining by 0.3% during the previous quarter. While an expansion in Switzerland’s economy should be viewed as positive for the Swissy, only a better-than-expected reading, in my opinion, could push the Swissy higher. European currencies have been pounded as of late due to the issues like debt etc. surrounding their respective economies. A jump in the country’s GDP could, therefore, just be an opportunity for the bears to jump back in and sell.
Thanks to the positive results on Switzerland’s GDP report, the Swissy was able to edge out the dollar in yesterday’s trading session. The USDCHF, after going as high as 1.0887 during the Asian trading session, ended the day at 1.0750.
The Swissy garnered a lot of buying support from the better-than-expected figures on its 4Q GDP. It reported that Switzerland’s economy grew 0.7%, and revised up third quarter’s 0.3% to 0.5%.
No more data coming out for the rest of the week for Switzerland so if you’re trading the Swissy, be on the look out for reports from other major economies, most notably the Greek debt news from euro zone and the non-farm payrolls from the US.
The Swissy traded at a two week high versus the dollar, as it benefitted from increased optimism yesterday. The USDCHF ended the day at 1.0680, 70 pips lower from its opening price.
It appears that Swissy benefitted from traders covering their short euro positions, as more news regarding the Greek austerity package was released. It appears that the European Union was satisfied with the Greek government’s plan to alleviate their debt problems. With no Swiss data on deck, watch out for more news coming out from the euro zone today, more specifically any news coming out of the ECB statement at 1:30 pm GMT.
The Swissy returned its recent gains to the greenback as risk aversion took hold yesterday. As a result, the USDCHF made a steady climb from the 1.0650 level to the 1.0800 mark.
Weak US economic reports, namely the labor productivity and pending home sales data, caused investors to dump riskier assets in favor of the safe-havens. This could be a preview of the price action for the US non-farm payrolls report due 1:30 pm GMT today. A bleak jobs report could spur further US dollar buying, pushing the USDCHF towards the psychological 1.0900 handle.
Like the other non-dollar currencies, the Swissy posted some gains after a smaller-than-expected drop in February US payrolls last Friday. The USDCHF fell and settled at 1.0742 from 1.0763.
Today, much attention will be turned to Switzerland with the release of its February unemployment rate at 6:45 am GMT and January retail sales at 8:15 am GMT. Switzerland’s unemployment rate is projected to have stayed at 4.1% while the country’s sales at a retail level are seen to have grown again by 2.4% after already posting a 4.7% expansion in December.
Another high impact report in the form of the Swiss CPI for the month of February is scheduled to be published tomorrow. Switzerland’s CPI likely jumped by 0.2% on a monthly basis after sliding by 0.1% in January. A positive score here could likewise be bullish for the CHF.
The limelight will once again be turned onto Switzerland on Thursday with the Swiss National Bank’s interest rate decision. The bank is widely expected to keep its overnight interest rate for the next 3 months at 0.25%. Unless the bank makes any surprise move, not much is expected to happen in the Swissy’s short term valuation.
The Swissy started out Monday on firm note, winning out against the dollar during the Asian trading session. The rally proved to be short-lived though, as the Swissy gave up all of its gains by the end of the day. The USDCHF closed the US trading session at 1.0733, a mere three pips lower from its open price this week.
Switzerland’s retail sales report released yesterday managed to beat expectations. It showed that retail sales in January jumped 4.4%, almost double the 2.4% increase initially predicted, which provided the Swissy bulls with some fuel.
On the docket today, at 8:15 pm GMT, is Switzerland’s consumer price index (CPI) for February. The expectation is that prices rose 0.2% in February, opposite the 0.1% decline seen the month before. A rising consumer price index (a.k.a. inflation rate) is usually seen as positive for the domestic currency because it gives a reason for the country’s central bank to raise rates.
After attempting to break the 1.08 handle, the USDCHF pair gave up much of its gains from earlier sessions. With the pair stuck in consolidation mode, maybe traders are just waiting for the SNB rate decision later this week.
Inflation remains to be subdued in Switzerland, as the CPI m/m report came out worse than expected, printing a rise of just 0.1%. Consensus was for an increase in consumer prices of 0.2%. With inflationary fears nonexistent, will this prevent the SNB from raising rates any time soon?
The Swissy staged a strong rally against the greenback yesterday, forcing the USDCHF to dip to a low of 1.0685. Switzerland and the US didn’t release any economic reports yesterday. What’s in store for today?
The SNB will be announcing its rate decision today along with its monetary policy assessment. Although the central bank is expected to keep rates at their current 0.25% level, the accompanying rate statement could dictate the direction of the Swissy. Be on the lookout for that at 1:30 pm GMT.
Also watch out for the release of the US trade balance and weekly jobless claims report during the US session since these reports could make an impact on risk sentiment. Chinese data on today’s docket could also rock the markets so stay tuned for those at 9:00 am GMT.