The overview of the main economical events of the current day, review of financial news, which influence the Forex market.
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 30/01/2013
USD declines against most of major currencies.
EUR demonstrated quite a performance on the back of European stock exchanges reaching a 2-year high due to the hints that the financial crisis might be ending in the region.
JPY has also continued its climb against USD and there were two main reasons for that: first of all, as we said before, JPY already trades at levels that are too low. Second reason is USD’s weakness that appeared due to disappointing consumer confidence numbers from USA.
Another factor that put some pressure on USD is the upcoming FOMC meeting and it looks like investors are playing “buy on rumors, sell on news” game, shorting the currency just before the meeting despite buying it a day before.
Finally, GBP showed some growth vs. USD fueled by Bank of England Head’s comments that UK economy’s growth rates will speed up, which calmed market participants to some extent.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 31/01/2013
USD continues to be under pressure
USD reached a new low against EUR since November 2011 due to positive economic news from Eurozone, suggesting increasing confidence in union currency. At the same time, investors play the rumor that FOMC will be forced to continue its interventions with the US economy and they have a good reason: according to FOMC, US economic activity is slowing down. Sure, officials commented that the reason for that are the weather conditions and some other temporarily factors, however it looks like the market didn’t buy it and punished the currency. Finally, disappointing GDP data from the States (a 0.1% decline in 4Q vs. expected 1.1% growth) sent USD into a free fall, allowing JPY to show some gains vs. dollar.
EUR on the other hand was enjoying some healthy gains on positive data release: consumer confidence is up reaching 89.2 compared to the consensus of 88.2. Even disappointing statistics from Spain which showed that the recession became deeper in the region in 4Q were not able to stop the growth.
By MasterForex Company
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Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 01/02/2013
EUR continues to test for new maximums
EUR demonstrated further gains against USD thanks to positive market sentiment that suggest that the worst part of debt crisis is over. And while retail sales in Germany declined below expectations, a positive surprise from jobless data was enough to offset the disappointment. Looks like market participants expect the labor market stabilization to translate into higher retail sales in the coming months.
Positive surprises from UK - consumer confidence data (-26 vs. expected -27) and increased Nationwide Housing Prices Index – provided GBP with that much needed fuel for growth, allowing British currency to show gains versus the dollar.
However, USD did rise against JPY yesterday, and even disappointing labor market figures from USA did not stop the growth of USDJPY as strong Chicago PMI data calmed the markets. Watch out today for jobless claims and personal disposable income numbers from USA as there are likely to affect the markets.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 04/02/2013
EUR rises on positive statistics; big policy meetings this week
The dollar hit fresh 14-month lows against the euro on Friday as U.S. jobs data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain its monetary easing program. The US Department of Labor said the economy added 157,000 jobs in December, slightly below expectations for a 160,000 increase, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9% from 7.8% in November. November and December nonfarm payrolls figures were revised sharply higher to 247,000 and 196,000 respectively. The single currency also found support after data showed that manufacturing activity in the euro zone improved in January, while inflation and unemployment stabilized, underlining the view that the crisis in the region has turned a corner. Meanwhile, separate reports showed that the rate of inflation in the euro zone fell to 2% in January from 2.2% in December, almost in line with the European Central Bank’s target, while the unemployment rate held steady at 11.7% last month. EUR/USD hit 1.3711 on Friday; the pair’s highest since mid-November 2011, before settling back at 1.3639. EUR/JPY hit a high of 126.97, the pair’s highest since April 2010, before settling at 126.55. The yen remained broadly weaker amid expectations that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would keep up pressure on the Bank of Japan to implement more aggressive easing measures to combat deflation.
In the week ahead, investors will be anticipating the outcome of upcoming policy meetings by the ECB, Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia, while U.S. and U.K. data on service sector activity will also be in focus.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 05/02/2013
EUR declines sharply on the back of a corruption scandal
EUR showed the largest fall vs. USD in 2 weeks as Spanish and Italian bond yields jumped up due to political uncertainty, which lead to a declining demand for the union currency.
All in all, EUR declined vs. most of the 16 major currencies fueled by the rumors, that Spanish Prime Minister might be force to resign after local press saying he was implicated in corruption schemes.
JPY declined to 93 vs USD – for the first time since may 2010 as market participants are waiting for ECB meeting, which is set for later this week.
GBP raised from its lowest in 15 months level against EUR as political shocks and rising bond yields made British currency relatively more attractive. Even published negative construction numbers, that suggest that construction is slowing down across the country for 3 months in a row, were not enough to keep GBP from rising against the union currency.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 06/02/2013
EUR shows gains in the eve of ECB meeting
EUR demonstrates some growth vs USD as market participants are waiting for ECB meeting on Thursday. Investors will be looking for any hints that ECB believes that EUR is too strong as only the Central Bank can introduce the measures to affect this situation.
Another factor helping EUR climb is positive service sector statistics, which surprisingly reached a 9-months high level of 48.6 compared to consensus of 48.2 and 47.2 just a months before. Moreover, weak US data also put some pressure on the dollar, allowing EUR to show gains vs it.
Finally, JPY reached it lowest level in 3 years as Head of Bank of Japan announced he will quit on March 19 – 3 weeks earlier than planned before, underpinning the tough situation in Japan.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 07/02/2013
EUR erases its gains vs USD
EUR declined vs USD on the back of banking shocks that threat to re-start debt crisis in the region as well as upcoming ECB meeting.
The union currency decreased against most of 16 major currencies as Spanish Prime-Minister is being forced to leave the position. Investors also expect to see losses from Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, which put further pressure to EUR.
This week investors are waiting for ECB meeting, during which Central Bank is to evaluate economy conditions and will make an interest rate decision. Market participants are also waiting on comments regarding EUR’s strength as many see high exchange rate as a threat to economy healing.
GBP is trading narrowly vs USD due to housing statistics, finally showing an increase in prices (first since October 2010). The prices grew by 1.3%, which is below expectations of 1.6% but an increase nonetheless. Moreover, Halifax added some optimism saying that first shoots of improvement seen in the end of 2012 are likely to continue this year.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 11/02/2013
Retail sales in USA and UK; Eurozone, Japan and Germany GDP data
The week ahead is not particularly newsflow heavy, although there is definitely some news worth following.
On Monday, Eurogroup meeting is planned – e.g. a meeting of the finance ministers of the Eurozone. Expect market reaction to anything and everything that will be announced during the meeting. This is likely to be the main news on Monday, however some minor statistics are also planned for release such as 4Q overdue mortgages from USA and housing data from New Zealand.
Tuesday will bring UK’s housing prices for January, consumer confidence from Japan and some other UK data such as CPI, inflation data and other price indexes. Another important thing going on for EUR will be ECOFIN meeting which is likely to support whatever trends that will form on Monday.
On Wednesday, keep your eyes on manufacturing orders in December from EU. From UK expect a press conference held by Head of Bank of England. USA will publish a bunch of data, including retail sales, crude oil reserves and some other statistics. USA is also to place 10-year bonds, while Japan will release lots of GDP figures.
Most important Thursday news is probably going to be a press conference held by Bank of Japan – expect to see an interest rate decision and some market-moving comments. Also prepare for preliminary GDP data from Germany and EU as well as a monthly ECB report.
Finally, Friday will bring us a monthly report made by Bank of Japan. Also keep in mind that G20 meeting takes place on Friday and Saturday so expect some newsflow coming from there as well.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 12/02/2013
GBP declines fast on bad statistics data
EUR demonstrated some healthy gains rising against most of the major currencies on Monday thanks to a comment from Head of ECB, who said that EUR is not particularly overpriced and a weaker EUR policy will lead to rising inflation.
JPY vs USD trades close to a minimum level since May 2010 after Minister of Economy announced that the government needs to keep trying to stimulate stock markets. At the same time, Japanese currency declined vs EUR for the first time in 4 days after a potential future Head of Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda said he supports further stimulus packages and expects some of them to be approved this year – looks like Kuroda is ready for serious action once he is elected as the new Head of BoJ.
Finally, GBP declined against most major currencies on bad manufacturing statistics. Add to the mix the speculations that investors are not so sure (as they used to be before) about exchange rate rising and you’ll get the idea why British currency was killed yesterday.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 13/02/2013
JPY jumps on positive comments
JPY grew vs USD and EUR after comments from G7 representatives that their previous message was understood incorrectly meaning that they are concerned about excessive changes in prices of the Asian currencies. They also were not happy about one-way regulation of JPY exchange rate. It also became known that this issue will be discussed this weekend during G20 meeting.
GBP has reached its 6 months minimum against USD as many market participants are expecting decrease in forecasts by Bank of England. GBP also declined against most of major currencies due to the fact that this decreased expected growth is likely pointing to interest rates remaining at a record low level.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 14/02/2013
GBP declines rapidly after Bank of England comments
GBP continues its downward motion on comments from Bank of England that the risks to the economy recovery have risen. GBP found itself under strong pressure after inflation report and Head of Bank of England comments. BoE’s report suggests that UK’s GDP is to remain lower than pre-crisis level until 2015, while CPI is expected to be higher than planned for at least another 3 years. Head of BoE also said that the recovery will be slower and any further monetary stimulation will lead to market optimism but not an economic growth. Finally, he also announced that external demand needs to be encouraged hinting that weaker national currency is the way to do it.
EUR has also fallen against major currencies as Portuguese level of unemployment rose to 16.9% in 4Q compared to 15.8% a quarter before providing market participants with uncomforting news.
JPY trades more or less flat vs EUR and USD in contrast to the previous trading session. It looks like investors are being cautious in the eve of Bank of Japan meeting despite the fact that market consensus is that no further stimulus packages are to be introduced right now.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 15/02/2013
EUR declines on negative news flow
EUR reached 3 week minimum vs USD after report showed that recession in Eurozone increased deeper than expected in 4Q, which hurts demand for region’s assets and stimulates interest rates to remain low.
EUR also fell against JPY due to declined GDP in both Germany and France. Finally, ECB vice-president announced that the bank is technically ready to set a negative deposit rate if necessary. Right now the rate is 0%.
USD rose on positive initial jobless claims that surprisingly decreased below expectations. Despite some increase last week, average level remains at a 5 year low.
JPY grew vs most of major currencies on a comment from Russian finance minister who urged G20 to take a firmer stand against currency manipulations.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 18/02/2013
JPY continues to be under pressure
JPY visibly declined on Friday after a member of G20 announced that they are not supporting G7’s opinion that exchange rates should not be a part of policy. At the same time G20 urged members not to start competitive devaluation saying that the markets should define exchange rates. JPY has lost more than 7% since the beginning of the year as a result of Japan trying to stimulate its economic growth.
GBP showed its largest weekly decline against USD since June after retail sales soaring by 0.6% in January (compared to 0.3% decline in December) – the first time since 2011. This comes as a negative surprise as the market was expecting a 0.5% increase even despite the heavy snowstorms in the first half of the month.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 19/02/2013
Important statistics are out today from both Eurozone and Japan
Yesterday was a rather quite day due to banking holidays in USA (President’s Day) and Canada (Family Day). While there was some movement in Eurozone on the back of poor financials and Mario Draghi saying he still sees risks for recovery, this news lies perfectly in line with the sentiment so no surprises here. However, as said before, American investors didn’t have a chance to react to this news just yet so expect an increased volatility today.
Moreover, if news wires today are disappointing we could possibly see an overreaction with American investors (who are late to the party) joining a sell-off in Eurozone – and potentially there are some planned figures releases that just might be enough for at least a short term panic. Today watch out for ZEW confidence indexes from Germany as well as Eurozone business sentiment data from ZEW as well; wholesale trading and foreign security operations from Canada; Japanese trade balance data and a bunch of economic indicators from Australia.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 20/02/2013
EUR bounces back; GBP reaches new lows
EUR traded quite strong against USD yesterday and showed some noticeable gains even despite some negative statistics: housing construction is down as well as business sentiment measured by ZEW. However, consumer confidence is up in both Germany and Eurozone, while Greece’s budget deficit has shrank (albeit not by much) – these factors allowed EUR to show some gains vs. USD.
JPY also gained against USD as it seems like not everybody in Japanese government is a fan of quantitative easing – Minister of Finance is against the purchase of foreign securities which is part of the plan according to Prime Minister. A meeting between USA President and Japanese Prime Minister is likely to be under investors radar – if Obama supports Japanese interventions into the economy, we are likely to see another round of JPY sell-off.
GBP reached its low vs. USD since July as market participants are afraid that new monetary and tax policies will continue to put pressure on the economy. Add to the mix a possibility of UK losing its credit rating and that a new Head of Bank of England might pursue a softer policy that the current one and that easily explains the weakness of GBP.
By MasterForex Company
How do you feel the March 1 cuts will affect the USD?
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 21/02/2013
USD jumps up on FOMC meeting minutes
USD raised against most of the currencies after a publication of FOMC meeting minutes that suggest that American economy is slowly recovering along with the rest of the world and that both housing and employment situations are looking up. Moreover, the solution of “fiscal cliff” problem decreased the risks to the economy and market participants took action boldly on this positive report.
EUR was more or less supported by news from Germany – January inflation data shows some increase due to high electricity prices allowing to postpone wildly expected slowdown of inflation in the country.
GBP continues to decline – it reached a 15 month minimum vs EUR after Bank of England meeting minutes were released showing that some members voted for expanding the asset purchase program this month. GBP also decreased against USD as well due to the fact that decreasing interest rates were also discussed as part of the possible solution.
By MasterForex Company
Hey all… I need help right now please… I am a beginner and I shall loose all my money if I don’t get a good expectation for my question. Where is the USD/JPY going within the next 4 hours ?? It went below 93.00 in swinging … What do you expect god bless you ???
