-EURUSD trend index above 90, resistance at 1.38
-GBPUSD breaks above resistance line, buy dips
-USDJPY trend index mean reversion, sell rallies
[B]About the DFX Trend Index
[/B]
The DFX Trend Index ranges from -100 to +100 and is updated everyday at 5 pm eastern US time. On the charts, bars are painted blue if the index is above 50 (uptrend) and red if the index is below -50 (downtrend). Readings between -25 and +25 result in a green bar to indicate that price has reversed to the mean. The spreadsheet shows the index values for the last 15 days.
50 to 100: uptrend / potential for a top increases the closer the index is to 100
25 to 50: in a range / bullish potential
-25 to 25: price has reversed to the mean
-50 to -25: in a range / bearish potential
-100 to -50: downtrend / potential for a bottom increases the closer the index is to -100
[B]
EURO / US DOLLAR[/B]
The trend index is at 93, which indicates uptrend / topping. There are multiple levels of resistance ahead. 1.38 is Fibonacci resistance, 1.36-1.3960 is the first of year (FOY) pivot zone, and the 200 day SMA is at 1.39. While additional upside is possible, the bulk of the rally from 1.2475 may be over.
[B]
BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR[/B]
The trend index is at 49, which indicates range / bullish potential. The break above a resistance line is bullish. A setback to the 1.4375-1.4320 zone would present an opportunity to go long against 1.4156.
[B]
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLAR[/B]
The trend index is at 71 which indicates uptrend / topping. The trend is up as long as price is above .6722.
[B]
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR / US DOLLAR[/B]
The trend index is at 79, which indicates uptrend / topping. The trend is up as long as price is above .5398. There is potential support at .55.
[B]
US DOLLAR / JAPANESE YEN[/B]
The trend index is at 12, which indicates mean reversion. Staying below 96.60 keeps bears in control. Resistance is at 95.00/25.
[B]
US DOLLAR / CANADIAN DOLLAR[/B]
The trend index is at 41 which indicates range / bearish potential. Being in the center of a 6 month range, there is no directional bias right now regarding the USDCAD.
[B]
US DOLLAR / SWISS FRANC[/B]
The trend index is at 69, which indicates downtrend / bottoming. The USDCHF reached the 200 day SMA today. The decline may be nearing an end and support is at 1.0925 (Fibonacci).
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Please send comments about this report to <[email protected]>