After the sharp decline, the pair could witness a bit of pullback but the overall view remains bearish. However, FOMC, scheduled for Wednesday, is likely disappointing the markets and could provide further fuel to these short covering positions.
Hello Traders,
Irrespective of the registering consecutive Third and fourth month decline in US Retails Sales and PPI respectively, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) rallied considerable during the last week and close above 100 for the first time in more than a decade. The Euro region currency continued plunging heavily and noted 3.2% decline, its biggest weekly fall since September 2011, as the ECB started its 1.1 trillion euro QE. The GBP also declined heavily against its US counterparts as weaker economics at UK kept supporting the sterling decline; however, the UK currency gained considerably against EUR as ECB’s QE supported UK bond yield. The Aussie joined the downside run with the CAD as weaker commodity prices fueled bearish forecasts by some of the BIG players. The minutes of the RBA, scheduled for Tuesday release, could become important for determining AUD moves even if the recent meeting turned into inaction as market players seek future guidance from the bank. Oil prices extended their decline also closed to the lowest level since 2009 as International Energy Agency said on Friday that the global supply glut is growing and U.S. production shows no sign of slowing.
The JPY remained weaker as higher USD hurt the safe haven demand of the Yen while market players expect Bank of Japan, it its monetary policy on Tuesday, could continue supporting the extra lose monetary policy. The NZD recovered some of its losses during later days of the week as no action by the RBNZ and hawkish tone could support the falling kiwi. The Chinese indices surged during the later week days after China’s Premier Li Keqiang pledged to take action if slowing growth threatens job creation or wages.
The current week becomes crucial to determine near-term market movement as central bank meetings by the FOMC, BoJ and the SNB are scheduled during the week. Moreover, the FOMC gains major attention of the market as stronger dollar and weaker economics could restrain Fed from signaling anything relating to interest rate hike even if some of the policy makers are favoring the stronger greenback.
During the Monday, US Empire State Manufacturing, Industrial Production and NAHB Housing Market index are likely to provide liquidity to the Forex market.
Have a nice Trading-day……
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 17-March- 2015[/B]
Hello Traders,
Weaker than forecast US releases pulled back the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) from its above 100 level as market players remained worried that softer economics could continue restricting Federal Reserve from announcing an interest rate hike in its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. The broadly weaker Euro reversed some of its losses on Monday due to short covering; however, uncertainty over the Greece continue to remain present as the Greek government will outline emergency plans to parliament Tuesday to increase funding. Should it fail to get additional funding before Friday, chances are higher that turmoil will evolve and the Euro will decline further. Moreover, the Bank of Japan, in its monetary policy meeting on early Tuesday, held its massive monetary easing unchanged and said that the Inflation is likely to worsen further for shorter time. The minutes of recent RBA meeting, published on Tuesday, signaled that the central bank is ready for another rate cut in its next meeting on April 07.
After the BIG news from BoJ & RBA meeting minutes got released during the early part of the day, the ZEW Economic sentiment indices for Germany and the Euro-zone, could with the US Building Permits & Housing Starts, coupled with the Canadian Manufacturing Sales, are likely to provide raft of information to determine market moves. Should the US readings continue signaling weaker readings, the USD could decline further on the hope of dovish comments from Wednesday’s FOMC while improving European readings and the solution to Greek funding could extend the recent pullback of the Euro.
Have a nice-trading-day……
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 18-March- 2015[/B]
Hello Traders,
On Tuesday, softer economic details continued compressing USD gains for the second consecutive day after the Housing Start details plunged to the lowest level since July 2014 while the Euro kept enjoying the pullback that was supported by better ZEW numbers. The decline in Crude price, with API registering higher inventory levels, kept restricting the gains of commodity currencies and higher forecast decline in Canadian Manufacturing Sales provided additional damages to the CAD.
Japanese Trade Balance strengthened the JPY during early hours of the day as exports rose more than forecast in February, signaling more of the progressive path for the nation while New Zealand GDT Price Index and Current account plunged and the weakened the NZD.
Today is an important day for the forex market as it contains the FOMC meeting that is likely to drop the “Patient” word from its statement that signals the last verbal signal for expansionary monetary policy. However, recent weakness in headline economic details continue supporting that the Fed would continue being neutral and could avoid introducing such changes forget about signaling timing for the interest rate hike. Should the FOMC spreads dovish message, the USD could decline heavily.
Other than the FOMC, the UK labor market detail, Canadian Wholesale Sales and the New Zealand GDP are some of the additional data points that are likely to fuel volatility into the forex market during important day of the week.
Have a safe trading………
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 19-March- 2015[/B]
Hello Traders,
And the Federal Reserve disappointed market in yesterday’s monetary policy meeting! The USD declined the most in nearly six years as the central bank almost halved its median estimate for the target rate this year and signaled that the labor market improvements are still lagging behind expectations. Forex market reacted aggressively to the news and market players kept selling the greenback pushing it southwards. The Euro remained a gainer without performing and reversing from its lower prices to gain biggest intraday rally since 2000. The Greece was granted its much needed emergency loan package by providing nearly 400 million Euros; however, the mount is lesser than the demand of 900 million Euros. However, the greenback regained its strength during early hours of Thursday as it seemed that the broader recovery of the US will continue supporting the Fed to hike interest rate sooner than later.
During the early hours of the day, New Zealand GDP matched forecast of printing a lesser growth number at 0.8% than the previous quarter reading of 0.9%. Given the FOMC has already passed, it would be better to concentrate on the SNB, EU TLTRO amount and the US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index coupled with the Jobless Claims to gauge the market moves.
Given the SNB’s ability to again surprise the market, as the CHF is again strengthens against its EUR counterpart, market could fuel heavy volatility while improvements into the US readings are expected and that could support the greenback to restore yesterday’s losses.
Have a great trading-day……
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 20-March- 2015[/B]
Hello Traders,
Even if the US Dollar reversed major part of the Wednesday’s losses, weaker Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed numbers restricted the greenback from registering considerable strength which is heading for the worst sell-off since mid-2013. The Euro registered gains as the Greece has said to agree on the major part of the reform measures, at EU meeting, to unlock the stimulus measures. The Crude Oil price continued trading weaker as oversupply concerns signal that the commodity could get into bear market soon. The Dollars and Australia and the New Zealand reversed during the early hours of the day while Japanese stocks also registered considerable gains.
RBA Governor, in his speech during early hours of Friday, said that the Australian economy is expected to grow below-average number as it in under a “major transition,” though a weaker currency and policy support will cushion the impact. On-going EU Summit and the Canadian Retail Sales with CPI releases, coupled with speeches from some of the FOMC members are likely to provide clues to determine Forex moves during the rest of the day.
Given the end of the week and the on-going raft of weaker US economics, the USD is more likely to extend its decline. However, surprise reaction by some of the FOMC members could fuel the USD rally.
Have a nice trading-day……
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 23-March- 2015[/B]
Hello Traders,
Doubts over the future path of US Monetary policy, triggered during the recent FOMC meeting, hurt US Dollar in a bitter way. The greenback registered biggest weekly decline against the euro in more than three years while the US Dollar Index dropped to the lowest level since 2011. The Euro region currency, even if being higher against USD, remained weaker against majority of its counterparts as Germen Chancellor, Angela Merkel, said Greece would only receive fresh funds to ease a cash crunch once its creditors approve a comprehensive list of reforms it has promised but so far failed to produce. Weaker USD supported the commodity currencies while the Crude Oil prices remained weaker, after registering heavy weekly gains, on Monday as Saudi Arabia said over the weekend that it would not unilaterally cut its output to defend prices.
During the early part of the day, the Swiss Retail Sales registered considerable declines while the Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m printed a 2.9% gains. Moreover, the Chinese equity markets registered gains on the expectations that the country is all set to boost their economy while the rest of the globe equity markets were also in green after the USD’s decline pushed investors towards other asset classes.
Having witnessed considerable declines into the greenback, there are brighter chances that the market players will wait for some strong numbers before putting additional buy bets on the US currency. Today’s US Existing Home Sales is the only release that could become important for the market while updates from the EU summit could continue fueling the EUR pairs.
Have a nice trading-day……
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 24-March- 2015[/B]
Hello Traders,
On Monday, lower than forecast Existing Home sales print, coupled with the dovish tones of Federal Reserve Vice Chairman and the San Francisco Fed President, extended the recent USD decline to post the biggest two-day drop in near six years. The ECB President, in his testimony, said that the troubled region, Europe, is gaining momentum mainly due to recent QE, helping the EUR to advance further. The decline in Dollar continue helping the Crude prices that rose 1% on Monday.
During the early day releases, the Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI plunged below 50 mark testing the lowest level in 11 months. The news provided considerable weakness to the Australian Dollar even if the nation registered higher CB Leading Index.
For the rest of the day, Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs from Europe, CPI releases from UK & USA, New Zealand Trade Balance and the US New Home Sales are likely to gain major market attention. Should the US CPI number falls shorts of the expectations and register another negative print, the USD could become vulnerable to extend its decline.
Have a nice Trading-day……
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 25-March- 2015[/B]
Hello Traders,
With the US Inflation gauge rising for the first time in four months, together with unexpected hike in New Home Sales and increased Manufacturing details, stopped USD decline on Tuesday. With the same effect, the Crude prices declined while there was a surge in Gold prices to more than 2 week’s high. The UK Inflation readings plunged to the record low and provided considerable weakness to the GBP. Further, the improved PMIs for Manufacturing and Services sectors of Euro-zone & Germany helped the Euro region currency to remain positive against majority of its counterparts except USD.
During the early hours of the day, RBA Financial Stability Review signaled that the improvement in Housing Sector could help the Australian economy is coming days supporting the AUD while weaker Trade Balance details from New Zealand, published on Tuesday hurt the NZD.
Given the positive response from Tuesday’s US economics, market players await details of Durable Goods Orders, scheduled during the later part of the day, in order to determine further USD up-move. Moreover, the German Ifo Business Climate and the ECB’s weekly call by the Governing Council to assess the Greek aid could become a fuel for forex market.
Have a nice-trading day….
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 26 - March- 2015[/B]
Hello Traders,
With an unexpected decline in US Durable Goods Orders, the US Dollar bulls were again kicked from the ground on Wednesday. There are likely chances that the weaker economic details could continue supporting Federal Reserve in avoiding near-term interest rate hike and the USD could trigger prolonged weakness. On the European front the ECB made more than 1 billion Euros ($1.1 billion) of extra funding available to Greek lenders. The Greek Government needs to present the details action plan on Monday to show how they would stave off the region’s weakness until then the nation isn’t allowed for encashing anything from the region’s kitty. Moreover, the news that the Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies had launched air strikes in Yemen against Houthi fighters have fueled the prices of Crude Oil and other safe havens.
Today’s the UK Retail Sales, speech by the BoC Governor, US Jobless Claims and the readings relating to Inflation, Retail Sales and the Household spending are some of the things that could provide considerable volatility to the Forex market during the day.
Considering the recent surge in ex-US currencies, with the weaker US details, markets are likely supporting the USD decline for the most part of Thursday; however, Final GDP for Q4 2014, scheduled for Friday release, could become important to determine near-term strength of the greenback.
Have a Nice Trading-Day……
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 27 - March- 2015[/B]
Hello Traders,
Thursday gifted a smile to USD traders as Jobless Claims plunged to the lowest level in seven weeks and market players remained positive for today’s GDP reading. The greenback gained the highest amounts in a week; however, today’s GDP could become important to determine near-term USD moves. Further, UK Retail Sales printed three month high and supported the GBP while the stronger GfK German Consumer Climate couldn’t help the Euro. Moreover, Chinese Industrial profits for January – February plunged 4.2% on a yearly basis, registering the worst drop since 2012 and pulling down the commodity currencies. Japanese Inflation reading remained lower than expected by printing 2.0% mark while the household spending and retail sales were also legged behind expectations and supporting the JPY decline.
Having seen some of the major details, the market is only left with US GDP print, coupled with the speech by the Fed Chair at Federal Reserve Bank Conference at San Francisco. Should these details signaled that the USD is less likely to remain softer, the greenback could recover its weekly losses. Alternatively, continuous dovish remarks could become harmful for the USD.
Have a nice trading-day and a great weekend……
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 30 - March- 2015[/B]
Hello Traders,
Lower than forecast GDP reading and weaker Durable Goods Orders’ detail hurt the US Dollar during last week to end in negative territory; however, a mild hawkish tone of the Fed Chair, in her speech on Friday, coupled with the CPI and Jobless Claims reduced the losses. The Euro region currency remained troubled during the later part of the week as Greece talks continue spreading uncertainty over the Greek existence into the Euro-zone. Moreover, the GBP remained a bit stronger, ignoring record low UK inflation, as Retail Sales rallied to three month high. Geo-political tensions at Yemen remained supportive to the safe haven demands of Gold and Yen while it failed to provide continued support to the Crude prices as talks relating to easing sanctions on Iran spread worries for additional supplies by the country.
During the early part of the day, Japanese industrial production fell more than forecast and added pressure from a drop in consumer spending and declining inflation. Market players now await German Prelim CPI and the US Pending Home Sales that starts this crucial week that includes many economic readings, like US NFP & Consumer Confidence, Chinese Manufacturing PMI and UK Manufacturing.
As the greenback is said to have regained some of its strength during last weekend, better economic numbers would continue supporting the USD surge; however, weaker reading would put more emphasis on dovish FOMC comments and is likely providing additional weakness to the US Dollar.
Have a Nice Trading-day….
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 31-March-2015[/B]
Hello Traders,
As expected, the US Dollar regained some of its strength on the first day of the week as Pending Home Sales rallied to seven month high while the savings rose to 5.8%, the highest since December 2012. The greenback posted biggest one-day gains in a month against JPY and strengthened considerably against AUD. The Euro region currency remained in a harsh state as disappointing progress in Greece talks continue to loom the risk of Grexit ahead of the deadline to have additional funds by the Greece. Moreover, the German CPI remained a tad lower than previous reading which surpassing the expectations. China, after revealing details of its much discussed “Silk Road” investment, announced steps to ease housing taxes and lending rules to prop up sliding house prices. Discussions over the Iran leaving capacity to develop a nuclear bomb, in exchange for an easing of international sanctions continue to hang and cold be another push to the declining Crude prices.
During the early part of the day, New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence rallied to seven month high while the Building Consents declined to five month low. Crucial releases, like UK Current Account and GDP, EU Flash CPI, Canadian GDP, US CB Consumer Confidence and Chicago PMI, are likely to fuel considerable volatility into the forex market. However, EU CPI, UK GDP and US Consumer Sentiment Index are likely headlines of the day.
Even if the EU CPI registers further decline, it is not likely to trigger additional EUR downside while a positive reading could become strong pull towards the buy side. Moreover, the US details, if signaling better than expected readings, are likely to continue extending USD gains.
Have a nice trading day….
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 01-April-2015[/B]
Hello Traders,
Amidst considerable volatility, mainly fuelled by the economic details from EU, UK, Canada and US, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) closed in a positive territory as improved CB Consumer Confidence fuelled speculation for early interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The UK GDP surpassed expectations while the EU Core CPI number legged behind expectations even if the headline number printed a better reading. Further, the Canadian Dollar, even after witnessing negative GDP number, closed in a positive territory as talks concerning Iran stretched beyond deadlines amidst uncertainty over the sanctions levied on the crude supplier.
During the early part of the day, the greenback weakened against majority of its counterparts as volatility into the market again supported the JPY and Gold prices and traders cashed out some of their yesterday’s gains. Moreover, the China’s official reading of Manufacturing PMI surpassed 50.0 mark again while the HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI printed a better number than initial forecasts; however remain below 50 mark. The Australian Building Permits declined lesser than the forecast and provided additional strength to the AUD. The Dollars of New Zealand and Canada also gained considerably as the surge in Chinese numbers supported optimism for the commodity currencies.
For the rest of the day, Manufacturing PMIs from US & UK, coupled with the US ADP number, are likely to continued fueling volatility into the forex market. However, traders are advised not to overtrade ahead of the Friday’s NFP as liquid conditions could eat the SL and obey the original trend. The USD is more likely to continue its gain ahead of the NFP.
Have a great trading-day……
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 02-April-2015[/B]
Hello Traders,
With three month’s low ADP reading and the fourteen month low of ISM Manufacturing PMI, the US Dollar shrugged majority of its early week gains on Wednesday as market players remained in a hurry to close positions ahead of Easter holidays from Friday to Monday. The Euro region currency gained a bit with Final Manufacturing PMI testing 10 month high while the ECB approved Greece with increase in the emergency funds available by 700 million Euros ($754 million). Moreover, the UK Manufacturing PMI failed to gift considerable gains to the GBP while the AUD remained weaker even after registering lower than forecast decline in Building Permits and rise in Chinese Manufacturing PMI as investors forecast another rate cut by the RBA in its April 07 meeting.
During the early part of the day, Australian Trade deficit widened with the lesser pace while the New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price Index rallied to the highest level since May 2013. For the day rest of the day, UK Construction PMI, US & Canada Trade Balance, and US Jobless Claims and Factory Orders are some of the details that could fuel volatility into the forex market.
Being the last day ahead of the Easter holidays, market players are likely to rush for completing their trade orders while drastic mismatches into the readings could provide additional liquidity to the market. Hence, it becomes prudent for the investors to trade cautiously.
Have a nice trading-day……
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 03-April-2015[/B]
Hello Traders,
Even with the reducing Trade Balance, seven month high Factory Orders and the nine week low Jobless Claims, the USD registered extended decline on Thursday as market players rolled down their positions ahead of the Easter Holidays weekend; moreover, the Morgan Stanley’s Index shows that the market players are expecting the later rate hike than September and provided additional decline to the greenback. The Commodity currencies extended their across the board decline as the Iran Nuke deal reached with three month’s extension and supported possibilities over rising crude supplies by the OPEC member, Iran.
Commodity currencies recovered a bit during early hours of the Good Friday as the Chinese Services PMI tested three month high while the a pullback into commodity prices, after yesterday’s decline, supported AUD, NZD and CAD.
With the Good Friday and the holiday on Monday, due to Easter weekend, markets are likely to trade abrupt with the US NFP scheduled to release during the later part of the day that could describe the USD moves for the rest of the day. Should the number beats expectations and registers considerable advance, the USD could recover majority of its weekly losses.
Have a nice trading-day……
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 06-April-2015[/B]
Hello Traders,
With the dismal NFP reading on Friday, that lagged the most pessimistic forecast to test the lowest level since December 2013, the US Dollar Index registered its third weekly decline. Market players scaled back expectations of near-term interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve; however, this week’s FOMC meeting minutes, scheduled for Wednesday, are likely to provide additional details of the Fed’s view. With the USD decline rest of the currencies got better buying opportunities. Also, expectations concerning the Chinese Government’s action to boost their economy also fuelled the commodity prices and industrial world. Talks relating to Greece bailout took a new turn on Sunday with Greek Finance Minister supporting to abide by the creditors’ request and will try to get the funds soonest. The talk will resume on Today as the troubled nation has to pay hefty trance, roughly 450 million euro, to the IMF due this Thursday. Crude prices also rallied considerable during last week as the Iran talks seemed less capable to fuel the global supply during 2016.
With majority of global economy enjoying Easter holidays on Monday, there are lesser economic readings scheduled; however, US ISM-Non Manufacturing PMI, Canadian Ivey PMI and speech by the FOMC member, William C. Dudley, could provide important details to fuel the global forex market.
With the NFP joining the fleet of weaker economics, US policy makers are likely to be shaken and could wait more than expected to introduce interest rate hike. That in-turn could become detrimental for the near-term USD strength. It would be better to support the short side rather than going long for near-term trading while the longer-term investment should wait for some-time.
Have a nice-day………
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 07-April-2015[/B]
Hello Traders,
Yesterday, the US Dollar regains some its strength, irrespective of dovish comments by the New York Fed President and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President coupled with weaker than expected ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, as market players likely covering their shorts as the NFP fears fade. Moreover, the RBA refrained from cutting down the interest rate by signaling it into the May and it strengthened the AUD on Tuesday with the Australian Retail Sales also testing the highest level in nearly five months. Even if the Iran is on its way to find the cancelled sanction, it would find it difficult to attract foreign investment as global scenario worsens and major energy firms are cutting down their expansion plans that in-turn continue restricting additional decline of Crude oil prices. The JPY remained strong across the board as rising equity markets coupled with uncertainty over the Fed interest rate continue supporting the safe haven demand of the Japanese currency. The GBP is also likely to strengthen as business lobby group said the UK economy gained better during Q1 2015.
Having witnessed the stable RBA and higher Australian Retail Sales during the early part of the day, the UK Services PMI will become the only important reading for the market players to take note of.
Although, the US Dollar regained during Monday, it is less likely to sustain its strength as the FOMC meeting minutes, on Wednesday, is likely to continue spreading weaker sentiments and it would be in the best interest of the market players to avoid going long on the USD unless strong comments, supporting the interest rate hike, from the FOMC.
Have a nice trading-day……
Hi Everyone!
I am new to trading but would love to understand what changes the market so I can plan my next move. I work full time so it’s mega hard to trade during the day. I review my charts on a weekly time frame.
Have a great trading ahead… You can follow this thread to get yourself acquainted with on-going market happenings. 