Daily Fundamental Dose

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 04-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

While dimming concerns of Fed’s rate hike and Monday’s downbeat data-points dragged the US Dollar to year’s low during early Tuesday, the greenback reversed the losses and registered a positive closing after two Federal Reserve officials, namely Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and San Francisco’s John Williams, favored chances of a rate-hike during next month’s FOMC. The GBP which also rallied to the highest levels since January start, dipped during the later part after Manufacturing PMI dropped to the three years’ low and tested the contraction region with 49.2 mark while the EUR also remained sluggish with no major releases to publish. At the commodity front, the Crude extended its slide as fears of global economic slowdown, coupled with news of middle-east expected to pump extra oil into the markets, dragged the energy prices down which in-turn became negative for the NZD, CAD and AUD. The AUD was biggest looser after the RBA cut its year-long inaction by cutting the interest-rate to a record low of 1.75% while the JPY also lost some of its charm on the back of profit-booking.

As the US Dollar managed to rise for the first time on Tuesday, market players extended their support for the greenback on Wednesday when the Japanese markets are shut for the second day of a three-day holiday. However, headline PMI numbers from US, EU and UK, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Trade Balance and the Factory Orders are likely governing market moves for the rest of the day.

Considering the recent rout in favor of the USD, a better print of the ADP, an early signal for Friday’s NFP, and the Factory Orders, could be considered as a green signal for the US currency to recover its recent losses; however, pessimistic prints could again fetch it below the year’s low and help the rest of the global currency basket. Hence, it would be in the best interest of the market player to keep checking on the data-points, together with the Crude inventory details, to foresee near-term trend.

Have a nice trading-day.

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 05-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Five month high US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and better than forecast & prior Factory Order gifted the US Dollar another positive daily closing on Wednesday while EUR remained weaker with downbeat Services PMI and Retail Sales. The GBP also dipped after the Construction PMI dropped to the lowest since July 2013 and the JPY maintained its downturn even during holidays at Japan. The commodity currencies, namely the CAD, AUD and NZD failed to strengthen against greenback even as the Crude oil marked its up-move with lowest US Crude stockpiles in right months and wildfires in Canada. Moreover, the USD up-move also hurt the Gold prices and dragged them for second consecutive day.

On early Thursday, the Australian Dollar reversed some of its recent losses after AU Retail Sales marked four month high & Trade deficit dropped to the lowest in a year. However, talks that the RBA Deputy Governor will replace the current Governor in September month capped further gains of the Aussie. Germany, Switzerland and Japan are again on holiday today while UK Services PMI, Canadian Building Permits and the US Jobless Claims are likely to gain market attention during the rest of the day.

During the absence of some developed financial markets, chances are higher that the on-going favor for the US Dollar might get extended if the Jobless Claims prints another welcome number. However, the rise in Crude prices, considering the again irrupted geo-political tensions in Libya and wildfires at Canada could become a good move to watch. Also, a dip in UK Services PMI, which is more likely, can extend the GBP downside.

Have a nice trading-day……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 06-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even with the highest Jobless print in five weeks, the US Dollar continued on its northward trajectory during Thursday as market players remained hawkish about Friday’s NFP & other headline job details. The Euro remained weaker even if major European centers were on holiday while the GBP witnessed another shock when the Services PMI dropped to three years’ low. Moving on, the AUD and NZD, together with CAD, remained sluggish against USD as gains in Crude prices, mainly due to the wildfire in Canada’s oil sands, failed to rally with rising US Dollar.

On Friday, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s quarterly monetary policy statement provided additional weakness to the AUD when it slashed inflation forecasts, suggesting open door for another interest rate cut. Japanese markets resumed trading after three days of holidays and made the JPY recover some of its recent losses while the USD also remained weaker compared to AUD, NZD, CAD and CHF in a tension trades ahead of job numbers.

Considering the recent stats relating to US job world, chances are higher that these details might fail to provide upbeat readings; however, chances are also lower that it would disappoint markets and drag the USD down. Hence, unless the NFP drops below 200K mark and the Unemployment also improves, chances of the USD to close the week on a positive side can’t be denied.

Have a nice trading-day and a great weekend……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 09-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Upbeat Factory Orders and higher than revised down Earnings report helped the US Dollar to shrug off the six month low NFP and helped the greenback index (I.USDX) to mark first week of May on a positive side. The EUR remained mostly on a negative side with absence of major economic data-points while the GBP dropped on disappointing readings from headline PMIs. Moreover, the JPY also weakened against majority of its counterparts with the Japanese markets closed for three days during the week and the commodity currencies plunged heavily with weaker Crude prices and pessimistic economics. Amongst which, CAD and the AUD were badly hit as RBA cut its benchmark interest-rate to the record low while news of Canada’s most destructive wildfire damaged the CAD.

During early trading hours of the Monday, markets remained titled towards USD as weekend’s comments from New York Federal Reserve President, William Dudley, in favor of two rate hikes a year, coupled with broader pessimism helped the greenback while on-going speculations that the BoJ should take measures to cut the JPY strength capped its gains. On the data front, Chinese Trade Balance, which on the face of it showed higher surplus, disappointed commodity market and global industrial producers as imports slumped more than 10%. However, the German Factory Orders, was a good news for EUR traders as it advanced 1.9% from the prior month when they fell a revised 0.8%.

Moving ahead, the US Dollar, even if registered noticeable up-move, is less likely to sustained its recent advances as broader economics, from Manufacturing to NFP, favors that the Fed would take some time and might go to even one rate-hike a year than two indicated recently. Moreover, this week’s Retail Sales and PPI would also help forecast near-term moves of the greenback. Hence, it would be in the best interest of market players to keep calm during the current week which is mainly governed by BoE’s “Super Thursday” and Japan’s comeback after a holiday season.

Have a nice trading-day……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 10-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even with the absence of any major economics on Monday, the US Dollar extended its recent north-run as gloomy outlook at majority of global markets, except the US where even the one rate-hike is likely, propelled the greenback. The EUR couldn’t enjoy upbeat reading of the German Factory Orders while the GBP remained on the downside ahead of the “Super Thursday”. Further, the JPY extended its slide as Japanese authorities communicated readiness to control the currency’s recent strength, if it hurts the growth and inflation outlook. Additionally, the AUD, CAD and NZD kept marking their downsides with broader commodities’ decline while Crude also dipped as control over Canadian wildfire added pressure into global supply-glut.

The second day of the week, Tuesday, carried the previous USD gains forward even if the Chinese CPI matched its forecast with 2.3% gain and PPI dropped less than expected to -3.4%. The JPY marked fresh low of the month, as the Japanese Finance Minister, Taro Aso, reiterated his Monday’s dovish comment. Additionally, the EUR witness a bit of pullback as surprisingly strong increase in German exports surpassed downbeat Industrial Production number.

With the recent market moves favoring the USD during May, which has historically a strong month for the USD, chances are higher that the greenback can continue on its north-run; however, weekend releases of Retail Sales and PPI, together with UoM Consumer Sentiment would be observed in detail. Also, Thursday’s releases from BoE are likely being catalyst for near-term GBP moves and the EUR GDP may help forecast immediate trend of the regional currency. For the day, the bi-annual release of RBNZ’s Financial Stability Report is likely to provide further downside to the NZD as market speculations favor another easing approach by the New-Zealand central bank.

Have a nice trading-day……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 11-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Tuesday proved to be just another day for the US Dollar to extend its recent up-move for the sixth consecutive daily session as details from JOLTS Job openings (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary) revealed that the openings rallied to the second-highest since 2000 in March, supporting the FOMC member’s weekend comment that favoring possibility of an interest-rate hike. The EUR and the GBP maintained their declines with some third-tier economics printing downbeat numbers while the commodity prices gained a bit after upbeat Chinese inflation numbers rejuvenated speculations that the dragon nation is slowly emerging out of its weakness, which in-turn helped the CAD, NZD and AUD to stop their running downside for the time being.

During early hours of Wednesday, the markets turned around form their recent favor to the USD and again pumping the JPY towards north as nearness to the BoE’s QIR and mentions of macro-economic risks by the RBNZ (in its bi-annual Financial Stability Report) again spurred demand of safe-havens, including Gold and JPY. The RBNZ, even after being dovish on the broader outlook, refrained from announcing any changes into the policies to control the housing bubble and hence propelled the NZD. The Crude which managed to close on the upside on Tuesday, again lost today as news from Iran revealed that the middle-east would compromise on prices to manage their market share, increasing the oil supply-glut.

Moving on, today’s UK Manufacturing Production and US Crude inventories are likely to govern today’s market moves while another high in Crude stockpiles, amidst the recent halt in Canadian wildfire, can become harmful for the energy prices. Also, the USD might reverse early day’s losses, except against JPY, as chances are higher, after the JOLT number, that the Fed would go ahead for one rate-hike soon. Hence, it would be prudent to hold the longs in favor of the greenback unless the Friday’s Retail Sales, PPI and Consumer Sentiment gauge prints pessimistic marks.

Have a nice trading-day….

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 12-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

The US Dollar finally lost its vigor after running up for six consecutive days and registered a negative closing as weaker US equities and Crude up-move, mainly backed by a surprise drop in stockpiles, dragged the greenback towards south. The GBP remained weaker against majority of its counterparts, except USD, as weaker than expected Industrial and Manufacturing Production details, curbed the British currency’s strength ahead of the crucial BoE QIR. Further, the EUR maintained its strength with no major releases while commodity currencies regained their charm after the Crude prices advance. Moreover, the JPY also held strong even if the BoJ official’s verbal fire to control its strength.

Having witnessed reversed moves on Wednesday, the market braces for “Super Thursday” when the Bank of England is expected to fuel the volatility with its Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR). The GBP started behaving strongly ahead of the release while the EUR dipped as chances are higher that the central bank might discuss “Brexit” during this time. The JPY remained strong as uncertainty kept favoring the safe-haven demands and the USD regained its charm with the Crude prices going down due to Canadian energy markets’ revival after the wildfire during last week.

Other than the BoE’s QIR, where major attention would on the language of policymakers relating to “Brexit” and inflation forecasts, New-Zealand Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims would provide additional details to observe for the market players. If the BoE maintain its recently dovish tone and spread worries for its departure from EU, also cuts down the Inflation and growth predictions for one more time, the GBP becomes vulnerable to liquidate its recent gains while another downbeat Jobless Claims can provide additional weakness to the USD. Moreover, the JPY may continue on its upward trajectory as global market uncertainty can maintain its safe-haven demand. Furthermore, the Crude prices might fails to sustain its recent bounce as Canada’s comeback into the global oil market after a week-long break can add into already existing supply-glut.

Have a nice trading-day……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 13-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even if the US Jobless Claims rallied to more than a year, the US Dollar failed to reflect that loss and registered a daily positive closing as major contribution in the number was from New-York which has initial factors that need not be addressed as severe. Further, hawkish comments from two of the Federal Reserve officials provided additional strength to the US Dollar. The GBP remained lackluster after rallying heavily near the BoE QIR release wherein the two-year inflation forecast was upwardly revised; however, the cut in GDP and downbeat tone concerning the “Brexit” dragged the British currency towards south. The JPY maintained south-run while commodity currencies remained weaker even if the Crude prices marked fresh six month high on concerns that Canadian wildfire can continue hurting near-term crude supply.

On Friday, German GDP rallied to six quarters high while New-Zealand Retail Sales grew lesser than expected and strength of the USD kept dragging the Crude prices, which in-turn was reflected in additional weakness by the NZD, CAD and AUD. Moreover, comments from BoJ Governor, that they can take considerable measures to tame the recent JPY strength dragged the Japanese currency.

For the rest of the day, EU Flash GDP, US Retail Sales, PPI and the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment will govern the market moves. With the recent trend of the USD beating even negative data-points, an upbeat Retail Sales and/or consumer sentiment gauge might further propel its northward trajectory. Additionally, the JPY and the commodity currencies might be helpless with no major details scheduled except Saturday’s Chinese Industrial Production and can remain weaker.

Have a nice trading-day and a great weekend……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 16-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Following the Tuesday’s upbeat JOLTS Job openings detail, which rallied to highest levels since the year 2000, the US Dollar maintained its upstream during last week and an eleven month highs by Core Retail Sales and PPI, together with the highest level of Retail Sales in two years, pumped the greenback index (I.USDX) towards marking another weekly gain. The EUR remained weaker with not so hawkish data-points, including the Flash GDP, while dovish tone of the BoE, coupled with a cut of Growth forecast and concerns for Brexit, dragged the GBP towards south. The JPY also dipped across the board as Japanese policy makers remained worried about currency’s recent gains and said to take measures, if needed, while AUD and NZD dragged down with dovish outlook of RBA meeting minutes and RBNZ Financial Stability report. Further, the Crude prices maintained their up-move as growing concerns over the recent Canadian wildfire might hurt the near-term Crude output, together with surprise decline in US stockpile and Goldman Sachs’ bullish forecast for the energy product favored its rise towards fresh highs in six months.

During the current week, the markets turned around after witnessing disappointing Chinese details in weekends, helping the safe-haven demand of the JPY while the EUR and GBP also bounced even if the European markets are close. However, the US Empire State Manufacturing, to be released at later sessions of the day, becomes important to determine USD moves for the rest of the day.

Considering the recently published hawkish US data-points, chances of the US rate-hike again came into play, which is more likely to support the greenback’s further up-move; however, minutes of recent FOMC meeting, and the US CPI, will be important to foresee its near-term up-moves.

Have a nice trading-day……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 17-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

The first day of week gifted negative closing to the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) after the Empire State Manufacturing Index, unexpectedly dropped to negative and market players seemed not satisfied after Friday’s strong numbers. The Euro remained sluggish with majority of its markets on close while the GBP gained some ground against majority of its counterparts ahead of the crucial UK CPI, up for release today, and an increase in polls favoring “Bremain” than the “Brexit”. The JPY kept on declining across the board ahead of this weekend’s G7 meeting wherein the global leaders might discuss coordinated policy measures counter present gloomy environment, which in-turn might force the BoJ to act against its strong currency. The Crude continue rallying towards north as a recent forecast of Goldman Sachs was backed by some other front-tier analysts. Also, news of Chinese oil production drop and Nigerian production halt, mainly due to Geo political tension in the Nigeria, provided additional support to the Crude prices advance. Due to this, commodity currencies strengthened after nearly a week’s heavy drop.

On early Tuesday, the RBA minutes provided strong support to the AUD, which rallied heavily against majority of its counterparts after the central banker asked for some time to analyze the effects of its recent rate-cut prior to taking any measures which market expected strongly. Further, the New-Zealand Inflation expectations remained steady at its record low 1.6% mark while the Swiss PPI also matched 0.1% forecast against 0.0% prior.

Moving on, headline inflation numbers from US and UK are likely to gain major market attention during the rest of the day while Canadian Manufacturing Sales, US Housing Starts, Industrial Production and the New-Zealand PPI are some second-tier releases that could propel the market volatility. Should these Inflation numbers rally, chances of further up-moves by the USD and the GBP can’t be denied.

Have a nice-day…

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 18-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Although US CPI rallied to the highest levels in almost a year, and helped the USD to gain a bit during initial trading after the data release, Fed’s preferred measure of Inflation kept remaining below 2.0% target rate which then reversed some of the USD gains. However, hawkish comments from three of the US regional Federal Banks’ Presidents, favoring a live chances of June rate hike together with nearly 2-3 rate-hikes during 2016, propelled the greenback towards completing a day in a positive side. The EUR remained as Trade balance details were not upto the mark while the GBP gained heavily as recent polls showed more people favoring the “Bremain” than the “Brexit”. Further, the AUD and NZD held their gains as absence of rate-hike signal in RBA meeting minutes, coupled with not so weaker NZ details and rising crude prices helped these commodity currencies; though, the CAD failed to strengthen as Canadian Manufacturing Sales dipped more than expected and worries also spread that recent wildfire cold provide greater damages to the Crude production.

Wednesday started with a good liquidity into the markets as Japanese GDP surprisingly rallied to the highest levels in a year and helped the JPY but failed to hold the gains as comments from the Chief Cabinet Secretary sound dovish and favored the delayed Sales Tax hike to take place in the current year. The Crude prices also maintained its up-move and rallied to seven months high on expectations favoring another dip in US stockpiles favoring already established views of short-term supply slack. The same moves helped the USD during earlier market hours while Gold and commodity currencies dropped.

Further, the UK jobs report and the US FOMC meeting minutes, coupled with US stockpile details, are likely to govern the market moves for the rest of the day. Even if the recent comments from some the US policymakers sound bullish lesser chances favor a hawkish tone in the minutes and can provide a pullback to the greenback; though, a surprise upbeat remarks can propel the USD’s upward trajectory. Hence, it would be better to remain supporting the USD ahead of the minute release, if already have long position, but should avoid taking new positions prior to announcement.

Have a nice trading-day…….

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 19-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

US Dollar Index rallied to seven week’s high on Wednesday after minutes of April FOMC meeting signaled that a June interest-rate increase is a live probability if the incoming economics continue improving. Even if the greenback managed to strengthen against majority of its counterparts, it failed to register gains against GBP as upbeat labor market readings, coupled with recent polls showing more number for the “Bremain” favored the UK currency while the -0.2% EU Final CPI dragged the EUR across the board. The JPY also dipped due to speculations that the Japanese policy makers might take measures to curb the currency’s strength while commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, reversed their prior declines because of weaker Crude prices, mainly due to stronger USD and higher exports from Iran. The Gold also opted for first negative daily closing in a week as rising USD and speculations of June rate-hike cut down its safe-haven demand.

On Thursday, market witnessed some important announcements that shook the trading patterns seen during early week-days. One amongst them was the Moody’s cutting down the US growth forecast and saying “At Most” rate hikes in 2016 while also discussing gloomy future outlook for China. Further, Japanese Core Machinery Orders, which surprisingly rose, wasn’t considered as good news for JPY as many producers said recent strength of the currency will hurt the orders in near-future. Moreover, the Australian Unemployment was steady at 2.5 years’ low and the full-time positions fell for the second consecutive month.

Moving on, UK Retail Sales, US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and the Weekly Jobless Claims are likely headlines that could propel the market liquidity. Given the UK releases continue to outshine, chances of GBP reversing its recent looses can’t be denied. Additionally, another higher mark from the Jobless Claims can be a drag for the USD which can be beat by the Manufacturing number. Hence, it’s better to have USD & GBP longs while JPY and AUD, together with CAD and EUR, are likely to weaken further.

Have a nice trading-day……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 20-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

With the market bracing on the recent FOMC minutes’ tune, backed slew of hawkish comments from leading FOMC members, the US Dollar printed one more daily positive closing on Thursday. The Jobless claims also dropped from 14 month high and helped the USD Bulls to extend the greenback’s upward trajectory against almost all of its counterparts except GBP. The GBP remained strong across the board as recent waves favoring the Britain to remain in the EU, backed by positive economic data-points, let’s say yesterday’s Retail Sales, helped the UK currency while the JPY also stopped its downside ahead of the crucial G7 meeting which might provide clues relating to further moves of the BoJ. Moreover, the commodity currencies remained lackluster on the weaker commodity prices, mainly due to strong USD.

Moving on, the Friday started with G7 meeting in Japan wherein the global leaders struggled to come up to solution for the prevailing macro pessimism; however, the meeting is still on and might provide decisive moves to mainly the JPY. Also, the on-going raft of “Brexit” versus “Bremain” continue providing GBP a strong hand while the speculations governing June hike helps the USD towards marking the best rally since January.

For the rest of the day, Canadian CPI, Retail Sales and the US Existing Home Sales are some of the data-points that can continue pumping the market liquidity. Should the US details keep remaining on the positive foot-hold, the USD can again prove that May is a best month for its up-move. Additionally, the poll outcomes concerning the Brexit and the G7 details might also become important for market players to observe.

Have a nice-day………

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 23-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Hawkish comments from FOMC meeting minutes, backed by upbeat Inflation and housing numbers, weighed concerns for the US Federal Reserve’s June rate hike and helped the US Dollar Index to secure third weekly gains, the longest winning streak since January. Additionally, some of the influential Fed policy makers also termed the June-Hike as a Live possibility and fuelled the greenback’s across the board rally, except GBP, which was up against all with labor market numbers and favoring support of “Bremain”. The EUR maintained its downside with weaker economics and Greek tantrum, which recently slowed down during weekend as Greece agreed to take demanded measures to receive IMF aid-funds. The JPY stretched its south-run as BoJ head also seemed worried for recent JPY strength and said the central bank can take further measures, if required. Furthermore, the commodity currencies also weakened against USD even as the Crude prices continued rallying due to weaker Oil production report from US and supply worries at Canada and Nigeria.

During early Monday, the market traded against the USD and helped the commodity currencies, together with JPY even as the Japanese Flash Manufacturing PMI contracted at the fastest pace in more than three years. Also, Flash readings of German Manufacturing & Services outweighed the consensus & helped the EUR. However, the same readings for EU are still pending and may be important to forecast further moves of the regional currency.

As the Canadian markets followed holiday and fewer economics are left for release during the rest of the day, except EU Flash numbers and US Flash Manufacturing PMI, chances for the initial day moves to stretch are higher. Though, unless strong EU numbers come-up, the EUR can’t be expected to moves further highs while the USD and JPY may remain volatile with JPY mostly seen strong.

Have a nice trading-day…….

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 24-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Following its longest winning streak since January, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) remained a bit shy on Monday even after slew of FOMC members’ comments kept favoring June hike as Manufacturing PMI plunged heavily. The EUR printed some gains on upbeat German numbers while the GBP also dropped as recent polls favored “Brexit”. Commodity currencies remained weaker against USD as the Crude oil weakened after rallying to seven month highs while JPY regained its strength as renewed global uncertainty, mainly relating to actions of BoJ and Fed, helped shore its safe-haven demands.

Alike its recent trends, the Tuesday reversed the USD’s recent losses and helped it regain the optimism while AUD dropped heavily after the RBA Governor seemed worried for Australian housing market, indicating further rate-cuts ahead. The EUR also weakened ahead of ZEW numbers and the GBP started rising again.

As the FOMC policymakers continue putting more pressure on June rate-hike, the possibilities of rate-hike have recent started rallying, which in-turn helps the greenback. At the EU and UK, there is exactly one-month to go for the referendum and the polls have started fueling the GBP volatility towards sky. Additionally, the BoJ also seems in a mood to cure JPY soon and might provide additional counter-strength to the USD. Hence, it would be better to hold the USD longs ahead of the Friday, at-least, while not forgetting to cover the profits on previous USD long positions.

Have a nice trading-day……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 25-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Following another dose of upbeat comments from some of the FOMC members on Monday, the US New Home Sales rallied to the highest in more than eight years and helped the US Dollar to extend its upward trajectory. The greenback rallied to the strongest levels since March against EUR and also reversed majority of Monday losses while comparing to JPY. Commodity currencies, like AUD and NZD maintained their decline while the CAD got on the better hands versus the USD as restoration in Canadian Oil sand productions, coupled with higher Crude prices, helped the Loonie, as it is nicknamed. The AUD was badly hit after comments from RBA Governor were considered to have signaled further monetary easing. Moving on, The GBP, however, accelerated across the board as latest polls favored no “Brexit” during June 23 referendum while BoE policy makers, in their Inflation report hearings, failed to discuss risks associated with the country leaving EU and further propelled the Pound value. Moreover, rising USD values adversely affected the Gold prices which dropped to a month’s low and keep stretching the downturn during early Wednesday trading.

Alike recent days, the USD started liquidating some of its recent gains during early trading hours on Wednesday while the GBP also dipped a bit on profit-booking. The Crude prices, which rallied to seven month’s high and are inch closer to $50 mark, kept rising on speculations that the US will post larger drawdown on weekly inventory data scheduled for release during the later of the day.

During the rest of the day, German Ifo Business Climate and the US Flash Services PMI, together with monetary policy meeting by the BoC, could help fueling the market moves. While the German number might help the EUR to recover some of its recent losses, the USD is less likely to lose its strength unless drastically weaker Services print. Moreover, the CAD might fail to sustain its latest sign of up-move as chances are higher that the BoC would discuss threats from recent wildfire and may also signal steps to help the economy. Should this occur the CAD can be up for another downturn.

Have a nice trading-day……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 26-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Wednesday proved to be a drag on the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) as no major economics pushed market players towards cashing-out from recent gains ahead of the Fed Chair’s Friday speech which might lack signs of June rate-hike. The EUR remained slightly up with German Ifo Business Climate rallying to four month highs while the GBP surged three week highs against USD after the polls by Conservative lawmaker Michael Ashcroft showed almost 65% chances for the Britain to vote for maintaining its EU status. The CAD grew heavily even after the BoC cut down growth forecast for Q2 due to recent wildfire in oil-sands; however, they didn’t cut the benchmark interest-rate and sound hawkish on Inflation aspect. The AUD and the NZD also grew after the Crude prices surpassed $50 mark on larger-than-expected drawdown in US stockpiles while the JPY also registered another positive day as it seemed that the Japanese policymakers will continue going ahead with their plan for 2017 sales-tax hike.

On Thursday, markets kept favoring the JPY and the GBP while maintained its downside pressure on the USD. Moreover, comments from New-Zealand Government, during Annual Budget release, that the country is stronger enough to cut the taxes as promised helped the NZD. The AUD and CAD also maintained their up-moves while Gold likely is reversing and Crude continue on its upward trajectory.

For the following part of the day, UK GDP, US Durable Goods Orders and the Pending Home Sales may continue providing market liquidity. If the UK GDP prints weaker marks, the GBP might pare some of its recent gains while upbeat readings from the US could help building speculations that the Fed Chair, in her Friday speech, and the US GDP, up for Friday, would be good news for June rate-hike and the greenback. Hence, it would be better to consider present USD decline as profit-booking and wait till the Friday ends before taking bigger positions while continue gaining on small longs of JPY and CAD.

Have a nice trading-day……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 27-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even if the US Jobless claims dropped for a second consecutive week, Pending Home Sales rose the most since 2010 and the Durable Goods Orders rallied more than forecast, the US Dollar remained on defensive side as a third consecutive monthly decline in orders for business equipment to the lowest five years pulled the greenback bulls backwards ahead of today’s GDP & an informal speech form Fed Chair. The GBP also dropped against majority of its counterparts while CAD ticked down with the Crude oil retracing back from $50 mark. The JPY remained strong while the AUD and NZD, even after gaining versus USD, flashed mixed signals.

The Friday started with weaker Japanese CPI dragging back the JPY while market players awaited signals from US. However, it seems that the USD again trading strong during early trading sessions, even compared to GBP, and the Crude prices remained weaker with the Gold also bouncing back from $1211 low

As the US details are eagerly awaited, chances are higher to witness little movement during the early part of the day ahead of these releases, which are more likely to provide another positive weekly closing to the greenback. However, a disappointment from GDP and/or even a neutral tone from the Fed Chair might further weaken the US Dollar across the board. Hence, it would be better remaining cautious ahead of the announcements.

Have a nice trading-day and a great weekend……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 30-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

With all of the scheduled economics, namely Durable Goods, Housing numbers and GDP, either matching or surpassing their upbeat forecasts, the US Dollar had a valid reason to extend its up-move. Moreover, hawkish comments from the US Fed Chair that an improving American economy would probably warrant another increase in borrowing costs “in the coming months,” helped the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to mark fourth weekly rise and to head towards registering the best month of 2016. The EUR remained sluggish due to mixed data-points while improved poll numbers showing favor for UK to remain in EU during its June 23 referendum helped the GBP to keep rising across the Board. The JPY dropped to the lowest in a month against USD as weaker disappointing inflation numbers and comments from an aid of central bank Governor, fueled speculations concerning the BoJ would delay its planned sales tax hike. The AUD and the NZD remained weaker while the CAD gained on not-so-dovish comments from BoC and rising Crude prices.

Heading towards the end of May, which generally showed a rally in USD, the US and UK markets will be closed on Monday while early-day release of Japanese Retail Sales signaled that the nation needs a delay of planned sales-tax hike in April 2017. Also, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, in his informal speech on Monday, said the market seems well-prepared for rate hike and helped the greenback to extend its rise.

During the rest of the day, German and Spanish CPI numbers, coupled with French consumer spending might provide some moves during an otherwise dormant day. However, there are many important readings/events scheduled during the week, like ECB, NFP, headline PMIs, which could provide enough of volatile markets at the later part of the week.

Considering the recent slew of upbeat comments from Fed, backed by improved economics, chances are higher that the USD can maintain its up-move; however, Friday’s NFP needs to be given high importance, which if marking optimistic number, can boost the greenback’s strength. Hence, it would be better to have USD longs while staying away from EUR and GBP longs due to nearness of EU referendum and the JPY should also be capitalized while selling.

Have a nice trading-day……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 31-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

While US and UK markets were closed on Monday, other active financial platforms, namely the Euro, Japan, Australia, New-Zealand and Canada, remained active; however, except Europe, AUD and NZD, none of the other major currencies dared to challenge the US Dollar strength as market sentiment is strong enough to witness a rate-hike in June. The EUR mainly grew with German CPI reversing its prior declines while weakness in Crude ahead of the OPEC meeting kept hurting the CAD. Moreover, the GBP also refrained from registering any strength while Gold stopped its decline.

On Tuesday, when all the major markets are present for trading, the USD maintained its across the board strength while EUR also dropped ahead of the Flash CPI release. The AUD strengthened against the greenback on early-day release of strong building approvals and net exports while the Crude remained sluggish. Additionally, the JPY also dropped further with Finance Minister, Taro Aso, joining the line of Japanese policymakers favoring delay in tax-hike.

After Monday’s half-active markets, the US personal spending and income will greet investors. Moreover, Canadian GDP, EU Flash CPI, US Chicago PMI and the CB Consumer Confidence are some headline details that could offer busy trading-day.

As investors await Friday’s NFP to forecast chances of Fed’s June hike, and there are some intermediate important releases likely PMIs and Consumer Confidence, weaker prints from the same might force the USD to pare of its recent gains. Moving on, chances are higher that the EU CPI might again fail to register welcome CPI and if the inflation gauge drops more than -0.1% expected and -0.2% prior, the ECB might have less hawkish words to save the EUR from further downside. Hence, it would be better to have USD on long-side while JPY and EUR on the short, but require caution.

Have a nice trading-day……