Daily Fundamental Dose

Trading Discussion News and Economy
589

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 27-July-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Tuesday was a volatile-day for global financial markets that initially searched for safe-havens but later on published improved earning reports from technology giants pared some losses of risky assets. The US Dollar couldn’t mark a daily positive for the second consecutive day as a weaker growth in US Service sectors ignored upbeat numbers of CB Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales while the EUR also remained volatile after the news favoring need of additional monetary easing for the region. The GBP also dipped as one of the BoE policymaker, Martin Weale, favored immediate stimulus as the Brexit rattled British economy and the JPY remained firm with speculations that the Japanese Government and BoJ might disappoint global investors with lesser than expected stimulus. Furthermore, AUD and NZD managed to register strong upside while the CAD remained weaker with Crude prices’ extended decline on higher API crude stockpile number.

Unlike the previous-day which stretched USD weakness, the Wednesday proved to be a good-day, at-least in the start, as comments from Japanese PM, as said by Kyodo News, signaled a huge asset package is on the way to help boost economic inflation. Moving on, the Australian inflation readings, even after beating the forecasts, remained well-below RBA’s target range and signaled another rate-cut more likely, which in-turn dragged the AUD again towards south. Additionally, Chinese industrial firms’ profit rallied fastest in three months but soft investment numbers kept signaling weaker days for commodity basket.

As the day includes, UK GDP, US Durable Goods Orders, Pending Home Sales, Crude Inventories and the FOMC meeting, the global financial markets are likely to witness noticeable moves. However, the GBP is more expected to witness further downside on soft growth figures while the USD will be crucial to watch and might reverse its recent losses if the FOMC, preceded by upbeat economics, sound a bit hawkish than it usually be. Hence, it would be in the best interest of the market players not to take big trades ahead of the crucial releases and have tight stop-losses of 1.0900 for EURUSD long & 1.3000 for GBPUSD long while USDJPY signals another up-move towards 107.00.

Have a nice trading-day……

590

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 28-July-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Ever since the week-start, the US Dollar has been declining for not so strong reasons than the shift in market expectations concerning Fed rate-hike. On Wednesday, downbeat details relating to Durable Goods Orders and Pending Home Sales paved ground for greenback’s south-run, which later provided strength to USD Bears after the FOMC refrain from providing any clear signals for their much awaited next move. The market responded with across the board selling of the US Dollar even if the central bank said that the Brexit risk has been subsided for the US economy, that in-turn fueled the Gold prices. On the other hand, a surprise improvement in UK GDP and pullbacks in Euro currency helped the GBP & EUR respectively but the JPY dipped for the first time in three days as the news from Kyodo said Japanese PM surpassed market consensus & will provide 28 trillion yen ($265 billion) worth of Fiscal measures soon. Further, the AUD had to bear the cost of soft inflation favoring RBA’s rate-cut while the NZD kept rising with absence of any major details and the CAD remained subdued as Crude prices extended its south-run with an unexpected hike in US stockpile halting a the record longest run of depleting inventories.

With UK GDP & US FOMC have already surprised investors, market players have cut their bets on a stronger Dollar but refrained from adding JPY ahead of Friday’s Japanese inflation and the crucial BoJ. Thursday started with the same tendency of punishing USD but the FOMC outcome provided a bit of relief to JPY and Gold traders. Moreover, the commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, strengthened as Crude prices bounced back and drop in Chinese shared favored another stimulus from China, world’s largest commodity consumer. Moving on, the economics basket is almost empty today with only German Prelim CPI, Unemployment Change & US Jobless Claims on the card.

As the market is closer to the end of crucial week carrying FOMC and headline GDP figures, the disappointment from FOMC is likely to weigh higher on the greenback and can continue punishing it. Though, Advance release of Q2 US GDP, up for Friday, might help to pare some of its losses, failing to which can further drag the US Dollar Index towards marking the first weekly negative closing in six weeks. Additionally, Japanese markets are on the edge and waiting for the BoJ to speak for its plan to announce additional monetary easing. With the Fiscal measures by Government already carrying a higher than expected figures, chances of the BoJ to adopt a wait and watch approach, or announce lesser than broadly expected measure-line, could fuel the JPY and Gold prices in-turn.

To sum up, a mismatch between the consensus and actual outcome of headline figures/events might continue fueling the market volatility on Thursday. Given the BoJ disappoints market and the US GDP misses its mark on Friday, the week could close the July month indicating a soft USD and a stronger basket of JPY and GBP.

Have a nice trading-day……

591

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 29-July-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even with not so important releases were scheduled on Thursday, surprise announcement by the US Census Bureau relating to wholesale and retail inventories, coupled with strong equity-run, propelled the global financial markets’ volatility. The inventory figures signaled not-so-impressive marks while three week high Jobless Claims and a wider than forecast deficit number of the Goods Trade dragged the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) down for the fifth consecutive-day. The EUR enjoyed upbeat German data-points while GBP maintained its south-run and the NZD, together with CAD, turned weak on declining commodity prices. Furthermore, Gold prices also failed to sustain its previous day gains and the JPY continued to be on the upper hands ahead of the crucial BoJ decision.

Friday started with a dip in Japanese Inflation and household spending but a surprise advance in Industrial production helped JPY to maintain its up-move. This followed by a sharp rally in the Yen as the Bank of Japan disappointed global forecasters with fewer than expected stimulus. The Japanese central bank announced $26 billion a year stimulus and maintained their bond-buying program but increased stake on ETF against the broader consensus of a further negative rate-cut and a mammoth increase in bond-buying. Moreover, the central bankers also announced to undertake the analysis concerning effectiveness of monetary policy and the statement revealing the results will be displayed during its next meeting in September.

While the BoJ kept ruling the markets during early-day trading sessions, Preliminary readings of GDP figures from EU, Canada and US, followed by US Chicago PMI, would continue fueling the trades by the day-end. Looking at the expectations, the US GDP is likely marking a strong number on increased consumer spending while the EU releases may also impress the regional currency players. Though, the CAD might not be able to reverse its recent downside as the growth figure might dip in negative and the running downside of Crude can further devalue Loonie, as it is nicknamed.

Given the US GDP figures match expectations, chances of the EURUSD to pare some of its recent losses, to test 1.0950, become brighter; however, it is still less likely to mark a positive weekly closing and a surprisingly weaker stat could further damage the greenback towards testing 1.1200 area. The GBPUSD is likely to maintain its 1.3050 & 1.3300 region intact while the USDJPY can hold the 102.30 mark. Further, failures to break the $1346-47 area, backed by upbeat US GDP, can drag the precious metal to $1312-11 support-zone.

Have a nice-day and a great trading……

592

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 01- August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Last week of July played it too harsh for the USD traders as not-so-promising data-points, coupled with US Federal Reserve’s hesitance in signaling clues for next rate-hike, dragged the greenback index towards paring its early month gains and printing a monthly negative closing for the first time since April. On the contrary, Euro managed to extend its north-run with upbeat inflation and the GBP pleased to witness better than expected GDP mark. Further, the JPY was the biggest gainer of the week, also printed a second positive monthly closing, as Bank of Japan disappointed global market players with lesser than expected stimulus measures while AUD and NZD also registered second monthly positive against the USD but CAD had to bear the cost of Crude’s global supply glut. Additionally, Gold rallied for second consecutive month with macro uncertainty on central bank actions and weaker US Dollar fueled its safe-haven demand.

Alike every week-start, Monday triggered US Dollar pullback against majority of its counterparts except AUD & NZD which celebrated a 1.5 year high Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI as a signal for better future demand. However, the said profit-booking in USD might not last longer as one of the influential Fed member, New York Fed President William Dudley, said that the Federal Reserve should be cautious in its future rate-hikes as economic downside risk from Brexit still linger on the world’s largest economy. He also indicated only one rate-hike by the end of 2017 as recent fallout in economics could continue raising bars for the Fed’s mission.

As we come to the first full week of August, economic details and central bankers are ready to fuel the global financial markets during the days to come. Amongst them, monetary policy meetings of the BoE & RBA, coupled with headline PMIs from UK & US and the US job numbers are likely to take the center stage of traders’ attention.

On Monday, following the upbeat Manufacturing prints from China, headline Manufacturing details from Italy, Spain, UK & US are still in the pipeline to be published. Considering the recent round of pessimistic US details, first print of negative marks can extend the EURUSD up-move towards 1.1245-50 area while an upbeat UK reading can fuel the GBPUSD to break above 1.3300 mark and aim for 1.3500 region. Furthermore, the USDJPY can also revisit 100.00 psychological magnet and the Crude might struggle around 40.00 – 41.00 area.

For the week coming-by, chances of disappointing US NFP hurting the greenback towards testing 1.1400 mark against EUR can’t be denied while a rate-cut from BoE and RBA could restrict additional gains of the GBPUSD & AUDUSD respectively. However, the USDJPY can please the Bears with a dip below 100.00 and the USDCAD could again run towards 1.3250 given the Canadian job numbers show weakness.

Have a nice-day and a great trading……

593

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 02-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even with weaker than expected ISM Manufacturing and a year-low Construction spending details from US, the US Dollar was helped by profit-booking moves on Monday. The Greenback managed to strengthen across the board while the EUR ignored upbeat Manufacturing PMI and dipped. Further, the lowest UK Manufacturing PMI in more than three-year dragged the GBP and the JPY pared some of its recent gains with commodity currencies, like AUD, CAD and NZD. Moreover, the Crude prices plunged below $40 for the first time since April as global supply-glut weighed the prices down but the Gold continued on its up-move as easing waves from global central bankers helped the safe-haven.

On early Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) matched broader consensus of announcing a second rate-cut in 2016. The central banker pulled the cash-rate to record low level of 1.5% from 1.75% earlier by indicating threats from Inflation and Job markets. However, the AUD didn’t plunge as the move was much expected and the central banker also didn’t signal any further monetary easing steps. Moving on, the JPY extended its Monday’s downside after the Japanese Finance Minister said a sudden strength in JPY isn’t good for the economy, indicating further easing in pipeline but the US Dollar couldn’t hold its previous-day gains after market players switched to previous speculations of no rate-hike from Fed during 2016.

Following the news from RBA & Japan, UK Construction PMI and US Income-Spending details are likely to be observed by traders in order to determine the moves for the rest of the day. Additionally, the New-Zealand’s GDT Price Index and EU PPI are some other data-points which might generate intermediate push into the market.

Considering the AUD’s hesitance in declining after the RBA and the USD’s on-going downtrend, following speculations of no rate-hike form Fed, any weakness in US data-points can continue fueling the EURUSD towards testing 1.1250 while upbeat details can only hold it around 1.1100 mark. Further, the AUDUSD could revisit 0.7600 area while the USDJPY is less likely to be stopped from testing 101.30 support mark. Also, the GBPUSD can continue trading between the 1.3100 – 1.3300 area unless drastic decline in economics drag the pair to 1.3000.

Have a nice trading-day……

594

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 03- August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

With Crude prices slashing more than 20% gains since June and revisiting the early-April levels on broader supply-glut, global financial traders remained afraid of another round of macro pessimism, which in-turn fueled safe-havens like JPY, Gold and AUD. The Japanese Yen got additional boost when the policymakers announced only a quarter of mammoth fiscal package announced by PM while the AUD didn’t care for rate-cut news and extended its northward trajectory. The US Dollar, on the contrary, had to pay for this and slumped against majority of its counterparts as a dip in savings strengthened bars for much awaited rate-hike form the Fed. Additionally, the EUR rallied to highest level since EU referendum against USD and the GBP gained on better than forecast Construction PMI. Furthermore, the NZD enjoyed upbeat GDT Price Index while CHF ignored weaker Manufacturing details and rallied to five week’s high against the greenback.

During early Wednesday, the Chinese Caixin Services PMI dipped below consensus and printed 51.7 mark versus 11-month highs of 52.7 marked in the month of June. However, the Composite Index, including Manufacturing & Services outcome, surged to the highest since 2014. The news had its mixed effects as the Crude reflected with a bit of profit-booking and the AUD, NZD and CAD are still waiting to rise. Further, the Gold prices kept rallying but the USD also recovered some of its previous losses.

While the US Dollar maintained its south-run during the early-weekdays, even with not so pessimistic details, today’s ADP numbers and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be observed closely. While ADP serves as an indicator for Friday’s NFP print, a better than expected number from Services can soothe some pains of the greenback traders and help making the EURUSD test 1.1150-45 support-zone. However, pessimistic readings can further strengthen the USD bears by fueling the EURUSD towards 1.1300 mark.

Additionally, UK Services PMI becomes important for GBP traders who are eagerly waiting for the “Super-Thursday”. While consensus shows no change in the leading PMI, a dip can have larger repercussions and can drag the GBPUSD to 1.3150 and then to 1.3050 supports. The JPY keep struggling around 101.00 and a dip, which is more likely can please the USDJPY sellers with below 100.00 mark while inability to break 0.7630 and the 0.7250 by AUDUSD & NZDUSD might trigger these pair’s pullback towards 0.7500 & 0.7150-45 respectively. Other than the economics, Crude Oil inventories might also play a crucial role as the stockpiles are expected to register a drop and might help the energy vehicle to test 41.00 mark.

Have a nice trading-day……

595

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 04-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Wednesday proved to be a good-day for the greenback when a tad high ADP job print, coupled with one rate-hike signal from Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President, Charles Evans, helped soothe some of the pains that USD traders were suffering from. The US Dollar managed to register noticeable gains across the board, except the CAD which rallied on a first positive closing of the Crude prices. The EUR couldn’t enjoy upbeat Services PMI and the GBP declined as monthly release of UK all-sector PMI, from Markit, dropped heavily. Further, the JPY also witnessed a bit of pullback, which could also be seen in Gold price dip, while the AUD and NZD ended on a negative note.

Following the release of some second-tier economics during early-weekdays, market players are nervous on the curical “Super Thursday” which comprises much awaited decision from the BoE, a first rate-cut since 2009, together with quarterly inflation report release and a press conference from the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney. During the early day releases, the AU Retail Sales growth lagged behind consensus and prior while comments from the BoJ Deputy Governor, indicating the September assessment won’t be a signal for the central bank’s upcoming actions, failed to provide any strong actions.

As the 0.25% rate-cut is highly expected from BoE Governor, the recent dips in UK economics might push him towards a higher magnitude of rate-slash mixed with additional QE measures. Given the BoE ignores the near-term data-points and only announces a quarter percent rate-cut, which seems already priced-in, the GBP might advance towards 1.3500 area; however, more dovish statements and an extra-monetary push in the policy steps could again drag the Pound towards testing Brexit-day lows.

Additionally, US Jobless Claims and Factory Orders are likely to print soft-numbers and can drag the USD down to 1.1250 against EUR if the BoE again disappoints global financial markets. On the other hand, the Gold and JPY prices might rally to $1160 and 100.70 respectively as the uncertainty can propel their safe-haven demand while the Crude bounce above $40 can extend the CAD pullback. Hence, it would be in the best interest of traders to remain on side-lines and await actual BoE outcomes rather than taking positions on general consensus.

Have a nice trading-day……

596

Thank you, I appreciate it, if there’s anything else you can think of. let me know

597

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 05-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Thursday became a pleasant day for the trader fraternity favoring GBP short as the Bank of England (BoE) announced largely expected cut to its official bank-rate. The central bank went a step farther from 0.25% rate-cut and also released a 60 Billion Pound addition to its Aseet Purchase kitty while pessimistic forecasts in Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR) provided extra weakness to the Pound which slashed 1.6% against US Dollar. The EUR also remained mostly fragile while the USD extended its previous day gains even with soft economics. Further, the AUD and NZD remained strong as stimulus measures indicated extra-demand for commodities while CAD also gained on Crude price pullbacks. Furthermore, the JPY failed to maintain its strength as market players remained cautious ahead of the July job report from US.

As the Friday started, GBP nursed some of its previous-day losses as the Governor’s press conference, just after the BoE decision, wasn’t that dovish but a four-month low of Halifax HPI kept weakening the Pound during mid-day trading. The USD traders kept being curious and avoided taking big trades while the CAD traded a bit on downside with Crude extending its south-run with supply-glut worries. Moreover, quarterly release of RBA’s monetary policy statement missed showing guidelines for its next action and kept the economic forecasts unchanged, which in-turn helped the AUD stretch its upward trajectory.

Analyzing the US details, the NFP might print a normalized figure of 180K versus 287K prior and the Unemployment rate is also expected to have softened to 4.8% from 4.9% with the Earnings moving back to 0.2% growth versus 0.1% earlier reading. Additionally, the Canadian jobs report and Trade balance details from US & Canada, are some second-tier stats that can help continue the market flow.

Should there be a near forecast figure of the NFP, which is six-monthly average, chances of the US Dollar to extend its recent upside becomes brighter; however, a disappointing print of below 150K, or let’s say 100K figure, can restrict the Federal Reserve from announcing rate-hike during 2016 and might magnify the USD declines towards 1.1250 against EUR. The USDJPY is more likely to revisit a below 100 below on weaker US details while strong readings can fuel it to 102.40-50 area. Furthermore, the GBPUSD might revisit sub-1.3000 area while the AUDUSD is near to print 0.7700 mark on the chart.

Have a nice trading-day……

598

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 08-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

The first full week of August spread the happiness on the face of USD traders as an unexpected increase in QE by the Bank of England (BoE), followed by a surprise back-to-back improvement in US NFP, helped erode speculations that the Federal Reserve has limited means to go ahead with its rate-hike plan in 2016. The greenback gauge (I.USDX) managed to print a weekly positive closing and registered highest gains against the EUR ever since the Brexit announced. The JPY and AUD remained strong as the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and rest of the global central bankers backed both these currencies while the Gold had to test the ground on stronger USD. Furthermore, Crude prices couldn’t sustain its below $40 dip and the consecutive profit-booking propelled it towards weekly positive closing.

Following the headline economic data-points/events, the present week has fewer stats for market players to observe. The economic game started on Monday with the China Trade details spreading pessimism after imports dropped for 21 consecutive months and the exports also fell for 12 of the previous 13 months. Another report also showed that the import demand of Crude from world’s largest energy consumer, China, noted slowest pace since January. Additionally, rest of the day trading is expected to remain quite with no major releases scheduled for publish.

Moving on, this week’s RBNZ meeting, Chinese Inflation readings and Industrial Production, followed by the US PPI, Retail Sales and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment are likely to entertain traders. However, the flow of volatility might be mild than what we witnessed during last week.

Weekly Technicals suggest that the EURUSD might carry-on its trading range between 100-day and 200-day SMA levels of 1.1230 & 1.1075 respectively while upbeat USD sentiment, which is more likely, can drag the pair to 1.0950. For the GBPUSD sellers, it seems a good news to expect the pair test 1.2870-65 area while the USDJPY can extend its bounce to 105.40-50 on the closing break of 103.30. Further, the hovering expectations of a rate-cut from RBNZ might drag the NZDUSD to 100-day SMA level of 0.6960 but the AUDUSD is more likely to extend its north-run towards challenging April highs around 0.7830.

Have a nice trading-day…….

599

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 09-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

As a result of last week’s BoE actions and upbeat US Jobs report, the market switched to “Risk-On” during the first trading-day of the trading-week. The macro sentiment of easy monetary policy, except at US Federal Reserve, helped equities while dovish comments from the BoE policymaker provided an additional strength to the GBP bears. However, the JPY had to bear the burden as improvement in global risk appetite shed some of the pre-established safe-haven demand gains. Further, the AUD and NZD remained a bit up as traders expected global monetary easing to be helpful for commodity demand while CAD strengthened on Crude price advances which ticked the energy vehicle gain around 3% after the OPEC President termed the present decline in Crude prices as short-term. Additionally, the Gold remained shaky and the EUR head to bend down due to greenback strength.

During early Tuesday, the trade-flow kept observing its Monday steps and helped the US Dollar; Though, commodities needed to take the bite as global supply glut worries remained intact for Crude and a worrisome forecast of RBA’s two-rate cuts during 2016 by National Australian Bank Ltd., coupled with expected rate-cut from RBNZ, dragged the AUD and NZD. On the data front, Australian NAB Business Confidence dipped to 4 in July against broader average of 6 while Chinese inflation stats remained upbeat with consecutive seventh straight monthly cut in PPI during July and a better than forecast CPI reading.

Targeting the rest of the day moves, UK Manufacturing Production and the US Prelim Non-farm Productivity become important details to observe. While UK details might continue dragging the GBPUSD towards 1.2880-75 on weaker details, an upbeat Productivity mark from US can further enable the EURUSD to test 1.1030 and the 1.1000 supports. USDJPY trades around the resistance and a break above 102.80 can fuel it to 103.30 and 104 resistances while a pullback needs to clear 101.85 to revisit 101.00 mark. Further, the AUDUSD continues on its ascending trend-line and might again challenge the 0.7675-80 area while the NZDUSD can continue on its south-run ahead of the RBNZ towards 0.7000 psychological magnet.

To sum up, the last-week’s market optimism for the USD might continue prevailing due to the dearth of headline data-points ahead of Thursday and the same can keep dragging safe-haven prices down, including JPY & Gold. However, the NZD and the CAD couldn’t hold their recent strength due to dip in Crude prices and rate-cut speculations.

Have a nice trading-day……

600

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 10-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Unlike Monday, market sentiment switched on the second trading-day and pared some of the USD gains as a third straight quarterly dip in US Nonfarm Productivity hinted that the Federal Reserve might extend its pause before announcing rate-hike in 2016. The GBP ignored declines in Manufacturing Production as Industrial Production beat forecasts and the BoE missed its target for Bond/Gilt purchase. Further, the EUR enjoyed USD weakness and the risk comeback helped the JPY to regain its crown. Additionally, the AUD, CAD and NZD also extended their upsides even if the Crude prices dipped on the news that US EIA raised 2017 oil production.

During early-day trading on Wednesday, the Kiwi traders are in lime-light as the RBNZ is expected to announce second rate-cut in 2016 and is also scheduled for quarterly policy statement release, followed by Governor’s speech. However, the ex-USD dimension of the market remain active due to global monetary policy easing bias and helped the Gold prices rally towards Friday levels. Further, the RBA Governor also spread worry for rising AUD but didn’t utter any specific signals to take and hence remained ineffective on AUD which is at three month high.

As there seems nothing more important than the US JOLT openings, Crude inventories and RBNZ meeting, chances are higher that the on-going market sentiment will continue hurting the USD bulls. Though, an advance in job reading, together with more aggressive than expected RBNZ outcome, might again turn the traders towards the greenback. By RBNZ aggressiveness, we mean either a 0.5% rate-cut or a dovish statement opening door for another rate-cut in November or both.

At the technical side, AUDUSD and NZDUSD are both trading at important levels of 0.7730 and 0.7230-35 respectively, which if broken can fuel them towards 0.7830 and the 0.7330. Further, the EURUSD is less likely to clear 1.1200 and the 100-day SMA level of 1.1230 with 1.1080 being immediate support while the USDJPY becomes a strong contestant to print sub-100.00 mark and the Gold might struggle around 1360 round figure resistance.

Have a nice trading-day……

601

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 11-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even if the US JOLT Job Opening surpassed consensus & prior, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) ended up registering second negative closing as the recent run of global central bankers’ easing raised hopes that the Federal Reserve can’t provide even a single rate-hike during 2016. The Wednesday was mostly governed by the RBNZ woes as market players were looking for a strong dovish action from the New-Zealand central bank in addition to already expected 0.25% rate-cut but some of the strong commodity Bulls considered the post-cut rate to be too high and kept favoring upside bets on the AUD and NZD. Further, the CAD also ignored the Crude weakness which followed unexpected hike in US stockpile details and the OPEC’s forecast of weaker global oil market to remain active for quite sometime. The GBP and the EUR remained fragile while the JPY kept pilling its strength on global monetary easing backed safe-haven demand. Additionally, the Gold prices also surged due to the USD weakness and run for risk-free assets.

Thursday triggered another disappointment wave counts in global forex markets as the RBNZ, even after announcing 0.25% rate-cut, failed to signal rate-cut in November which was highly expected. The central banker also didn’t lose its strength and maintained optimism to counter the present deflation risk. The NZD reacted strongly to the meeting outcome which could also be witnessed in the run of AUD and CAD, the rest of commodity currencies. The Moving on, Gold prices took a hit when the World Gold Council said the rise in yellow metal’s prices might hurt demand from second major consumer, India.

Having witnessed wild-moves and a pullback trading sessions during early-day, the markets are likely going to take a halt before US Jobless Claims and quarterly release on New-Zealand Retail Sales, scheduled during the later part. However, bearish bets for the USD seems fading as additional improvement in US job figures published yesterday, backed by some profit-booking moves, can help the greenback to close the gain in a positive territory if the Jobless claims prints positive number.

On the technical side, EURUSD can continue trading between 1.1230 and the 1.1050 range, either-side break, with decline is more likely, can trigger the pair’s move. The GBPUSD might again target the 1.2880-75 support-zone, breaking which 1.2800 becomes an important support while the 1.3100 can continue offering strong resistance. Additionally, the USDJPY traders needs to look for a break below 100.80 in order to witness 100.00 mark, else an upside tip above 101.70 can reprint 102.30 on the chart, and the AUDUSD, coupled with the NZDUSD could adhere to correction towards 0.7650 and the 0.7165-60 respectively.

Have a nice trading-day……

603

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 16-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Be it RBNZ or the consumer-centric US details, disappointment was the one thing that prevailed everywhere during last week. The same favored continuation of lose monetary policy across the globe and helped headline equity indices to mark fresh record highs. The US Dollar had to bear the burden of three month low Retail Sales and a lowest print of PPI in 2016 while the EUR enjoyed counter-strength. The GBP was also on its south-run as slew of weaker data-points and BoE’s incapacity to gain required attention on its bond-buying dragged the UK currency down while commodity currencies were on their upstream as Crude registered consecutive weekly advance on weaker USD and optimism that global oil producers will be able to agree of production freeze during September meeting of International Energy Forum. Furthermore, the Gold prices swung between gains and loses and the JPY kept piling further weights with safe-haven demand force.

As we come to a new-week, the situation hasn’t changed much as Monday’s US Empire State Manufacturing unexpectedly shrank and market players have started rolling their forecasts for a 2016 Fed rate-hike. The GBP kept trading south ahead of the crucial CPI detail, to be released on Tuesday, which would cover the whole period after Brexit and might force the Pound to mark new lows. Further, the AUD, NZD and CAD remained firm with commodity prices support, which got additional support from upbeat Chinese inflation data released last week.

Taking a look at some of the headline economics scheduled during the week, inflation and job numbers are likely to gain the center-stage of market attraction with US, UK & Canada up for announcing their inflation stats while New-Zealand, Australia and the UK are ready to speak their employment growth numbers. Additionally, the US FOMC meeting minutes, UK & Canadian Retail Sales are extra-fuel to zoom the market volatility.

Given the recent trend of disappointment, chances are higher that the US can continue being silent, in its minutes, when it comes to speak for a rate-hike in 2016 and weaker data-points, mainly the inflation mark, could magnify its downturn. The GBP is also likely to be hit when the CPI will show a weaker number, indicating more room for the policymakers to act upon to safeguard the global financial capital. Furthermore, the JPY might extend its upside as present uncertainty and the inability of the BoJ to weaken the currency can help it put some extra strength while Crude might shed some of its recent gains if some of the global manufacturing indices print weaker number and US inventories disappoint traders.

On the technical side, break of three-month old descending trend-line, coupled with US pessimism, can continue fueling the EURUSD towards 1.1330-50 with 1.1180 being immediate support to observe while GBPUSD seems certain to revisit July lows of 1.2800 and the USDJPY can settle around 99.00 with 102.65-70 acting as strong upside resistance. Moreover, the AUDUSD and NZDUSD are set to print 0.7830 and 0.7400 marks during the week with 0.7600 & 0.7130 being important support.

Have a nice trading-day……

604

Fundementals mean nothing i bought on the 2nd of august raussie ate cut came yeah but made a fortune
i also said buy the euro usd on the rate cut means nothing rate cuts garbabe

605

That rotten, dead-fish smell is spreading throughout the forum.

606

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 17-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Following Monday’s weaker US Empire State Manufacturing, USD traders were eagerly waiting for the monthly reading of Inflation stats, an important factor that governs Fed’s decision making process together with jobs report. However, the headline CPI, in addition to the Core reading, bowed-down to greenback bears and pulled the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to third consecutive negative daily closing. On the contrary, the UK Inflation surprised GBP traders when the number ticked up to 0.6%, highest since December 2014 while upbeat EU ZEW Economic Sentiment helped the EUR to extend its recent north-run. Furthermore, speculations concerning oil production freeze talks by major producers during next month meeting kept fueling the Crude prices, which together with the positive Canadian Manufacturing Sales propelled the CAD, AUD and NZD prices towards north. Moreover, JPY and Gold remained strong with on-going rush for easy monetary policy across the globe.

During early Wednesday, New-Zealand job numbers provided additional strength to the Kiwi, as the NZD it known as, with the Employment Change surging to the record highs and Unemployment dipping down the lowest since may 2009. Additionally, the quarterly reading of Australian wage growth remained subdued and gave rise to profit-booking in AUD pairs while Crude also pared some of its recent gains ahead of US Crude stockpile details.

Alike Tuesday, the Wednesday also becomes an important day for the GBP and USD traders as UK Job details and minutes of recent FOMC meeting are scheduled for release. While UK Earnings and Claimant Count Change pose alternative numbers, increasing the Pound traders’ trouble, the GBPUSD participants should concentrate on 1.3100 resistance and 1.2930 support numbers. For the USD, the minutes will carry higher weight as the latest meeting wasn’t followed by Fed Chair’s press conference and some of the FOMC members have been loud mouthed in public while favoring a rate-hike in 2016. Given the minutes indicate a rate-hike in September meeting, which will also release summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair, chances of the greenback to reverse its losses can’t be denied.

Hence, upbeat minutes and absence of any important details from EU can drag the EURUSD to negate its recent trend-line break and test 1.1190-80 support-zone while on the alternative case the pair can rise to 1.1330. For USDJPY, 99.50 and 101.40 are crucial levels where as 0.7330 can continue acting as strong upside resistance for NZDUSD with 0.7210 being immediate support to watch. Additionally, 0.7630 is an important support for AUDUSD and the USDCAD seems bouncing back to above 1.2900 mark with profit-booking in Crude prices.

Have a nice trading-day….

607

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 19-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Adding to the already prevailing US Dollar pessimism, mainly backed by dovish data-points, the greenback got another flop when minutes of July FOMC said the Fed policymakers want to see more economic improvement before announcing the much awaited rate-hike. The news provided noticeable strength to the USD Bears and ignored the better than forecast Jobless Claims and Philly Fed numbers which dragged the greenback to nearly two-month lows against EUR on Thursday. On the contrary, the Euro kept rallying towards north on counter-strength against US currency and comments from ECB minutes that market players shouldn’t see the Brexit forcing the central bank towards further mammoth monetary easing. Further, the GBP rallied with unexpected surge in UK Retail Sales while the AUD managed to extend its up-move on hawkish labor market details. Moreover, the NZD and JPY, together with the Gold held their gains intact with no major updates than the greenback weakness fueling the commodity basket and helps safe-haven demand. Additionally, the Crude prices rallied to July highs after decline in US inventories, together with present speculations supporting production-freeze talks, helped the energy vehicle.

As the market stands on the weekend-door, traders seem in a raw for profit-booking and giving some alternative moves than we have witnessed since the week-start. The same action got help from another round of Fed members’ comments that the 2016 rate-hike is inevitable. However, dearth of economic data-points, except Canadian Retail Sales & CPI, might restrict the USD favored traders.

Moving on, the market players are also in the state of dilemma where on the one hand Fed members keep favoring rate-hike in 2016 while FOMC minutes and recent US details are portraying something different. Hence, next week’s Jackson Hole meeting of global financial leaders will be closely observed where the Fed Chair’s speech will be examined in detail. Given the Fed Chair repeats what recent FOMC minutes said, chances of the USD plunge can’t be denied. Also, GDP releases from US & UK will gain market players’ attention to forecast immediate moves of the greenback and GBP respectively.

On a technical note, overbought RSI and a weekend profit-booking might drag the EURUSD to 1.1280 & 1.1250 support but an extended up-move beyond 1.1370 can quickly print 1.1410 and 1.1430 on charts. On the GBPUSD, chances of its pullback to 1.3050 & 1.2995 are higher with 1.3185 being immediate resistance while AUDUSD might hold recent downside around 0.7550 and can reverse to 0.7680 soon. Furthermore, Gold has 1360 and 1335 levels to watch and the Crude can comeback to 46.50 on overbought oscillators.

Have a nice trading-day and a great weekend….

608

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 22-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

It’s been a fortnight since the greenback traders couldn’t get any positives from the world’s largest economy and felt disappointed with second consecutive weekly negative of the US Dollar Index (I.USDX). The US Dollar extended its earlier losses during the second week of August when soft inflation numbers, followed by FOMC minutes’ dovish tone, dragged speculations concerning any interest-rate hikes by Federal Reserve during 2016. The market kept punishing the US Dollar with pessimism and the same helped the EUR, which additionally got support from the ECB’s upbeat remarks. The GBP noted its first week of gains in three as a surge in Retail Sales and job market improvements fueled the UK currency against all of its counterparts while the JPY also remained strong even after witnessing not-so-good GDP figure. Moving-on, the AUD couldn’t enjoy upbeat job figures and the NZD, together with CAD, remained strong on Crude prices which registered highest weekly gains in five months due to concerns that global oil producers might get a success in Crude production hold talks during next month.

Even as the US pessimism clouded expectations of a rate-hike, latest comments from influential FOMC members, like San Francisco Fed President John Williams and Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, kept favoring a September meeting as a live option for the US central banker to announce the much awaited rate-lift. The same supported the greenback in paring some of its losses on Monday when the AUD and JPY were getting the heat from expectations of a further monetary easing from their respective central bankers. The AUD got additional shock when the Moody’s rating agency cut its outlook on Australian banks to negative while the NZD and the CAD also dipped as speculators now expect possible Oil production talks in September might not be effective to curb the global supply glut fueled by middle-east.

Alike last week, the present week’s economic calendar also holds few number of events that can propel the FX volatility; however, GDP figures from UK & US, coupled with headline PMIs from EU and US Durable Goods Orders might continue pushing traders to the edge. In addition to the economic data-points, the annual meeting of global financial leaders at Jackson Hole Symposium, during Thursday and Friday, becomes a center of attention for the market players as the Fed Chair might hint for the Fed’s next policy move during the meeting. Though, expectations of a weaker GDP print and a dovish tone of the US central banker can continue compressing the USD against majority of its counterparts, which if surprises the market, the greenback can easily recover its immediate losses. Furthermore, the GBP seems more on the upside if the GDP figure follows the recent trend of upbeat numbers.

On the technical side, EURUSD failed to sustain the 1.1360 and might re-visit the 100-day SMA level of 1.1230 while dovish US outlook can restrict the pair’s additional downside. The USDJPY is struggling to break the 101 mark which if broken can fuel it to 102.10 with 99.50 being support and the GBPUSD couldn’t break 1.3180 and is likely witnessing pullbacks to 1.2860. Additionally, Gold prices seem coming down to 1315-12 area but a break above 1341 can reprint 1355 on the chart.

Have a nice trading-day……

609

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 23-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

While downbeat data-points and dovish FOMC minutes dragged the US Dollar Index to register second weekly loss during the last week, latest comments from top officials at FOMC helped the greenback to reverse some of its losses ahead of the crucial week that includes Jackson Hole speech by the Fed Chair. However, US Dollar failed to sustain the Friday’s strength during the first trading-day of the week as market players kept expecting that the Fed Chair will spread disappointment through her failure to provide any clues relating to 2016 rate-hike. The EUR and the GBP maintained their strength as recent communications from ECB and welcome UK numbers helped both these currencies. Further, the JPY also remained high with traders expecting BoJ’s expected easing in September might also fail to curb the power of Japanese currency’s safe-haven demand while NZD got surprise boost when the RBNZ Governor said he isn’t seeing drastic rate-cuts coming in near-future. Additionally, the Crude prices couldn’t sustain its recent highs as worries over cut in Chinese demand, Nigerian Output and US stockpile risks have gained additional support when Goldman Sachs said September meeting of major oil producers couldn’t cut the prevailing global supply-glut.

As Tuesday has comparatively more stats to furnish than the Monday, market has been a bit more active since the day-start when BoJ Governor refrained from signaling any clues for the central bank’s next action. The moves got additional support when Flash readings of headline PMIS from EU & Germany released. The German Services and Manufacturing PMIs disappointed the regional currency traders but the EU details remained impressive and signaled that Brexit isn’t hurting the economy, which in-turn helped the EUR to remain firm.

For the rest of the day, EU Consumer Confidence, US New Home Sales and New-Zealand Trade Balance are likely figures to observe. Wherein the New Home Sales and the Trade Balance might favors the USD bears and drag the NZD a bit but the EU Confidence number can continue favoring the EUR up-move.

At the technical side, break of 1.1365 can fuel the EURUSD towards 1.1410 but upbeat US housing stat and a dip below 1.1280 might print 1.1230 on the chart. For USDJPY, the 101.00 and the 99.50 range can continue while GBPUSD recently broke above 1.3165-70 and can rise to 1.3230 and the 1.3310 resistances. Additionally, the Crude is up for another round of profit-booking and might test 45.30 soon while a clear break above 47.00 can flash 47.80 and 48.85 on the chart while the Gold observes symmetrical triangle formation between 1330 – 1352 area.

Have a nice trading-day…….