Daily Fundamental Dose

Trading Discussion News and Economy
634

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 04 – October – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

During the first trading-day of October, the US Dollar Bulls pleased to witness an upbeat ISM Manufacturing PMI that reversed prior contraction-indicating figure and beat forecasts. Additionally, hawkish comments from Fed Bank of Cleveland President, favoring a soon rate-hike, provided extra-strength to the greenback that helped the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to close at the highest levels in two-week’s time. Further, the EUR couldn’t celebrate its final PMIs as EU clearly told that until the UK PM formally starts Brexit proceedings they are out of negotiation to allow it single-market access which also dragged the GBP towards testing the lowest closing on Monday since 1985. Moving on, the AUD, CAD and NZD remained a bit firm with no major releases and a rise in base-commodity prices due to Chinese stats published over weekend while the JPY kept declining as recent Japanese stats curbed speculations concerning currency’s strength.

Tuesday became another good-start for the greenback traders as worries over the EU-UK relationship kept hurting the GBP and EUR by providing counter-strength to the US Dollar. The GBP plunged below Brexit-day lows and the EUR also kept declining while the JPY is running at the weakest in two-weeks against USD. Further, the Crude isn’t out of the present downturn for ex-USD moves as news indicating higher exports from Iran and Libya ahead of US inventory details continue pressurizing global supply-glut worries. Moreover, RBA’s inaction didn’t help AUD to extend its up-move and the Gold is also running down for the sixth consecutive-day by indicating re-test to 1300 round figure.

Looking at the economic calendar, UK Construction PMI and the New-Zealand GDT Prices Index are the only releases scheduled for publish today and hence chances are higher that the present USD up-move might stretch a bit longer. However, an optimistic print by the UK PMI could help trim some of the recent GBP losses while no reversal of on-going downtrend is expected until the EU softens on UK. Also, the AUD, NZD and CAD might go down and trim some gains on Crude prices declines, which in-turn could provide additional strength to the US currency.

Technically, EURUSD seems all set to re-test 1.1140-30 support-zone while its further downside depends on the US market open while an upside break above 1.1210 could help it print 1.1235-40. The GBPUSD is also weaker and might print 1.2700 mark with 1.2830 acting as nearby resistance while USDJPY broke important TL resistance and can print 103.00 on the chart with a dip blow 101.80 declining the recent surge. Moving on, the AUDUSD and NZDUSD are expected to flash 0.7630 & 0.7240 supports but a break above 0.7700 & 0.7320 might trigger their respective up-moves.

Have a nice trading-day …………

635

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 06 – October – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even with weaker than expected ADP figure, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) managed to preserve its strength on Wednesday as upbeat figures of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Final Services PMI, coupled with better than forecast Factory Orders, helped maintain optimism for the greenback. With recent strength in US economics strengthening prospects of Fed-rate-hike, safe-havens, like JPY and Gold, were badly hit while EUR and GBP took a breath from their south-run during yesterday. Moving on, the AUD and CAD were also a bit stronger than the NZD which kept plunging after its headline GDT Prices index dropped to the lowest since February. Furthermore, the Crude prices kept rallying for sixth consecutive-day as US stockpiles registered fifth weekly contraction; though, its gains were limited by the price-cut announcement from Saudi Arabia.

On early Thursday, market players were mostly inactive with no major releases on hand to observe, except US Jobless Claims. Additionally, some of the traders are also worried about tomorrow’s NFP after ADP disappointed investors, which in-turn makes them stay away from trading ahead of crucial Friday. However, four-month highs German Factory Orders helped EUR to gain a bit while better than forecast AU Trade deficit figures couldn’t strengthen AUD prices.

Moving forward, present uncertainty in the market, coupled with upbeat figure from EU, might trigger a short-term reversal in USD that can help rising JPY and Gold prices; though, major attention will be given to Job market details and an upbeat print of the NFP beyond 180K current-year average could brighten the chances of December rate-hike. Hence, it would be better not to take any big trades during the day while short-term opportunities against greenback could be materialized.

On the technical front, EURUSD might not dip below 1.1180 support and can print 1.1230 while GBPUSD is again going south and can revisit 1.2685 mark prior to targeting 1.2600 with 1.2770-75 acting as nearby resistance. For USDJPY, 100-day SMA level of 103.70 can limit the pair’s further upside and a pullback below 103.30 reigniting chances for its 102.80 re-test but the Gold prices are less likely to strengthen unless breaking 1278 by continued showing south-run to 1255-58 support-zone. Further, AUDUSD broke its 0.7590 support and is coming down towards 0.7560, 0.7530 downside figures while an upswing beyond 0.7590 could confined by 0.7640. Moreover, NZDUSD is also weak and indicates 0.7120, 0.7080 re-test but a break above 0.7180 can fuel it to 0.7220.

Have a nice trading-day …………

636

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 20 – October – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Following softer than expected US Core CPI data, disappointing Housing Starts kept nurturing greenback bears on Wednesday; however, upbeat Building Permits and Beige Book details confined the US currency’s major downside. The EUR traders remained cautious ahead of today’s ECB meeting while the GBP couldn’t strengthen even after Claimant Count lagged behind consensus and prior. Further, the JPY and the Gold prices kept enjoying safe-haven support and the Crude got additional reason to rally towards June high when US stockpiles surprisingly declined and Saudi Arabia signaled more likeliness of November production-freeze agreement. Additionally, the AUD and NZD managed to extend their north-runs but the CAD failed to rise as Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor favored further monetary policy easing.

Thursday got a busy start for traders when the AU Employment Change plunged to the lowest since February 2015 and dragged the AUD across the board. Though, following analysis of a dip in Unemployment rate and positive NAB Quarterly Business Confidence helped trimming some of its losses. Moving forward, UK Retail Sales, ECB’s monetary policy meeting and US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, together with Jobless Claims, are likely to keep market players on desk.

With the latest communication of ECB indicating more likeliness of QE tapering before it ends around March 2017, EUR traders are showing dissent over the signal as regional economics aren’t promising to back such move. Hence, even if the central banker isn’t expected to alter its present monetary policy, Governor’s press conference will be closely examined. Given Mr. Draghi maintains his hawk-mode, which is less likely, the EUR could reverse its recent losses and rise to 1.1030 resistance, else on a dovish tone, the regional currency could test 1.0900 mark.

Other than ECB, UK Retail Sales could also be watched as latest data-points from Britain have been upbeat and an advance of an important part of UK GDP could propel the GBPUSD to 1.2330 but a weaker print can continue dragging the pair to 1.2220. Additionally, USDJPY might bounce-off from 103.85 TL and can revisit 103.30 but a break of which can rally to 104.50 while AUDUSD is trading at 0.7650 horizontal support and may take a U-turn to 0.7685; however, NZDUSD is more promising for a return to 0.7250 with a break of 0.7185 TL indicating a drag till 0.7130.

Have a nice trading-day …………

637

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 21 – October – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank flipped global traders in favor of the US Dollar on Thursday as the President, Mario Draghi, turned down his previous signal of QE tapering before its scheduled closing on March 2017. Market players took it as a sign of prolonged easy monetary policy by the regional central banker and dragged the EUR across the board. The greenback, on the other hand, got a surprise hike in Existing Home Sales after earlier two-month dip and the Philly Fed also surpassed forecast, helping the US Currency to register first positive daily closing in a week. The GBP remained weaker as UK Retail Sales failed to match 0.3% forecast while the AUD had to bear the cost of downbeat jobs report. Further, the NZD and CAD also joined commodity currencies’ downturn as Crude prices slide after Russian Oil producer signaled increased output and the Nigeria cut down its oil prices. Moreover, the Gold and JPY also weakened on the investors’ rush towards US Dollar.

During early Friday, Bank of Japan Governor said that the central bank may stretch its targeted time for inflation goal and weakened the JPY while a magnitude 6.6 earthquake in Japan provided additional downside to the Japanese currency. Looking forward, the on-going EU Summit and the Canadian CPI-Retail Sales are likely news that could propel the market moves.

While UK PM kept repeating her wish to start EU-UK divorce proceedings from March 2017, some at the EU might ask for details and could also discuss harsh measures that could be levied on the nation. If so, the same could hurt the GBP further while giving few updates for the EUR direction. Additionally, the Canadian details are less likely to help the CAD as the Crude is still on its weaker side and previous stats from the nation haven’t been so good. Hence, weak prints of the CPI-Retail Sales could further propel the USDCAD to 1.3300 with 1.3160 being immediate support.

Technically, the EURUSD has breached 1.0900 support-line and might go down till 1.0825-20 while an upward swing beyond 1.0900 can have 1.0950-60 area as important resistance. The GBPUSD is also indicating downside till 1.2180 with 1.2300 being immediate support and the USDJPY struggles between 103.00 and the 104.20. For AUDUSD a bit bounce till 0.7660 is likely with a dip below 0.7615 dragging it to 0.7580 while NZDUSD is less likely to strengthen and can test 0.7140-30 region with 0.7200 acting as nearby resistance.

Have a nice trading-day …………

638

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 25 – October – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Monday proved to be another happy-day for the US Dollar Bulls when the Flash reading of Manufacturing PMI tested the year’s high while the same strength of EU Flash PMIs, Manufacturing and Services both, helped the Euro region currency to halt its running decline. The GBP gained a bit on short-covering moves while improvement in Manufacturing readings strengthened commodity currencies, like AUD and CAD, but the NZD couldn’t rise on rate-cut worries. Further, the JPY and the Gold witnessed lack of safe-haven support as positive prints at EU & US pared market fears and the Crude prices dropped on news that the Iraq and Russia are stepping back from supporting global Oil production-freeze.

Alike first-day of the week, Tuesday also has the same EU and US details to rule market-moves wherein German Ifo Business Climate and the US CB Consumer Confidence are the headline figures to observe. During the early-day trading, the EUR and Gold kept gaining while AUD and JPY remained a bit on the weaker-side. Moreover, comments from the BoC Governor that the last-week’s signal to favor easy monetary policy isn’t a sure thing to come soon further strengthened the CAD.

Further, the recent rout of positive economics are likely to continue helping EUR and USD but the US Confidence might pare a bit and can trigger softer moves for the greenback while heads of BoE and ECB are scheduled for a speech and can become decisive for both these currencies. Though, EURUSD and GBPUSD continue remaining weaker unless they break 1.0950 and the 1.2280 immediate resistance while on the downside 1.0830-25 and the 1.2170 can act as adjacent supports.

The USDJPY again confronts 104.50-60 horizontal-region and is likely to break its this-time with a signals to print 105.20 while 104.00 becomes nearby support to look-after. For AUDUSD and NZDUSD, both the pairs are weaker and can visit 0.7580 and the 0.7085 with 0.7660 and the 0.7160 being resistanes to watch. However, the USDCAD is more likely to break 1.3400 as it failed to 1.3250 support and the Crude prices can again aim for 51.00 with 49.30 seems support-levels to look.

Have a nice trading-day …………

639

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 26 – October – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even if previous optimism for the USD and upbeat reading of S&P Home Price Index fueled the I.USDX to fresh eight-month high during early-Tuesday, an unexpectedly weaker CB Consumer Confindence gauge curbed additional gains of the greenback. However, the EUR managed to extend its recent upside after German IfO Business Confidence joined positive-PMI lane and flashed the highest print since April 2014 while the GBP again dipped to south as BoE Governor signaled monetary policy moves at its next meeting. Further, the JPY also remained weaker but the Gold rallied on festival buying from India, world’s second largest consumer. Moreover, the AUD and NZD maintained their north-run despite Crude’s plunge on Russian indication to not abide by OPEC production-cut, which in-turn rejuvenated supply-glut worries and dragged CAD down.

Adding to the on-going run of commodity currencies, lead by AUD, Australian Inflation data on Wednesday provided noticeable strength to the Aussie as better than forecast CPI figures indicate no rate-cuts from RBA in near-future. The NZD also followed the suit while CAD pared some of its losses after Crude prices stopped further downside eyeing today’s US stockpile report. Furthermore, the GBP extended its weakness while JPY took a break from south-run and the EUR kept remaining firm with no major economics left for publish during the rest of the week.

Moving forward, the US New Home Sales and New-Zealand Trade Balance are the only economics for market players to observe while US Crude inventory data will be more important for CAD traders. Considering the US housing sector strength, an upbeat print of the New Home Sales could drag the EURUSD to 1.0865-60 while a weakness reading can continue favoring the pair’s short-covering session to 1.0950. For NZDUSD, likely reduction in trade-deficit might help continue fueling the pair to surpass 0.7200 mark while a dip below 0.7120 could re-print 0.7065-60 on the chart.

The AUDUSD might extend its north-run to 0.7730, breaking which 0.7800 can be expected while profit-booking moves can drag the pair to 0.7640 support. Further, the GBPUSD is also likely to rest around 1.2130 support, breaking which 1.2080 and 1.2000 can come into play but an upside break above 1.2250 can fuel it to 1.2300. Additionally, the USDJPY reversed from 104.85 resistance and might re-test 103.50 support; though, a break of which can test 105.30-50 region.

To sum up, with no major releases scheduled for publish and the presently unclear market situation, chances of the USDJPY and AUDUSD up-moves are brighter while EURUSD and GBPUSD can witness pullback moves depending upon US details.

Have a nice trading-day …………

640

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 27 – October – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Wednesday didn’t quite please forex market players, especially not to the USD traders, as mixed economic data-points kept troubling participants ahead of front-line US & UK details, scheduled for release today and tomorrow. The USD had to bear the burden of lower than expected New Home Sales and widening Goods Trade deficit by ignoring the previously revised down figure for housing indicator and an upbeat Flash Services PMI; however, the EUR managed to extend its recent north-run and GBP also witnessed an uptick. Further, the JPY remained weaker on speculations that BoJ could take some measures to confirm the Japanese currency’s weakness during next week’s policy meeting while the AUD gained on strong inflation figures but the NZD has to liquidate its earlier gains on wider than forecast Trade deficit. Additionally, the CAD kept weakening on soft crude prices even if the US stockpiles registered declines as traders mentioned the dip in inventory was mainly concentrated on the West Coast, which remains negligible.

Moving forward, Thursday becomes one of the two important days of the current week as UK GDP, US Durable Goods Orders and Pending Home Sales figures are up for release today. Market players have started showing the active mood since early today when the news of political turmoil in Venezuela lifted the Crude a bit up while GBP is again moving down ahead of growth figures. Further, the JPY is gaining a bit on market worries about UK & US details while AUD dipped with higher than forecast import price declines indicating subdued inflation and RBA rate-cut.

Looking at the economic forecasts, the UK GDP is likely to print 0.3% mark, lesser than the upwardly revised 0.7% prior. The same becomes more important as it would contain whole of the post-Brexit period and is more likely to disappoint Pound traders who witnessed recent upticks. Further, the US Core Durable Good Orders and Pending Home Sales are both likely to reverse their previous downsides and hence have additional strength to fuel the greenback again towards north. However, the GBP isn’t yet out of its bearish mode and a strong GDP could become a trigger for the currency to register its fresh advances while disappointment from US details can continue dragging the greenback to south.

On the technical side, descending trend-channel resistance of 1.0930 and the 1.0850 are likely important levels for the EURUSD traders to watch while GBPUSD might continue observing 1.2250 – 1.2150 range. USDJPY again failed to surpass 105.00 mark but an upward slanting trend-line support of 104.10 becomes important but the AUDUSD is testing immediate TL support around 0.7600 and can bounce to 0.7670 resistance, failing to which can drag the Aussie to 0.7580 & 0.7530 supports. Further, the NZDUSD is also likely to keep observing 0.7120 – 0.7180 range while USDCAD’s failure to clear 1.3400 mark can drag it to 1.3350.

Have a nice trading-day …………

641

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 28 – October – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Thursday’s slew of positive Core Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales helped strengthen expectations that the US economy is strong enough to register robust growth figure today and can bear another Fed-rate hike, which in-turn propelled the greenback index (I.USDX) to north. Moving further, the GBP flashed mixed signals as a surprise hike in UK GDP faded worries about the British economy’s strength after Brexit and signaled no rate-cuts from the BoE while EUR remained firm as traders kept celebrating after-shocks of recent upbeat EU figures. Additionally, the JPY maintained its weakness due to lack of safe-haven buying during present optimistic markets but the Gold didn’t dip with Indian festival-purchase support. Moreover, Crude also rose as some of the Gulf nations backed OPEC production-freeze move while AUD and NZD dipped heavily on the back of technical breakdown mixed with profit-booking.

Having witnessed a much needed green signal from US economic calendar, global forex traders are favoring the US Dollar since Friday-start on expectations of upbeat Q3 2016 GDP. The EUR and GBP also started loosing while the JPY held a bit firm after Japanese inflation figures contracted lesser than forecast with a dip in Unemployment rate. Also, commodity currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD, weakened a bit more due to stronger USD favoring less import demands while Gold is heading to register a range-bound week as physical buying support confronts with strong USD.

Looking at today’s GDP figure, the growth mark is expected to flash 2.5% against 1.4% prior and six-month average of 1.1%. The actual print is more likely to please greenback buyers as pickup in Consumer spending and strong Job figures could help upvote the stat and can favor Fed’s another rate-hike. However, a disappointment of below 2.0% GDP would witness higher repercussion and can drag the US Dollar to liquidate its recent gains and might raise the bar for the Fed’s much awaited rate-increase decision.

Technically, the EURUSD might revisit 1.0850 and the 1.0800 supports with a break of 1.0950 opening door for 1.1000 mark while the GBPUSD should be cautiously observed if it breaks 1.2080 with an upside resistance of 1.2270 being important.
Further, the USDJPY cleared 105.30 and is likely headin to 106.00 with 104.80 being nearby support and the USDCAD again aims to break 1.3400 – 1.3410 region to test 1.3450 but a pullback below 1.3370 can disappoint pair Bulls. Additionally, AUDUSD and NZDUSD are more likely to extend their recent south-run with 0.7530 and 0.7090 being nearby rest-points; though, an upside break above 0.7620 and 0.7150 could negate its latest weakness.

To sum up, with the recently upbeat data-points favoring strong US GDP figures, the greenback is likely to continue rallying higher but the strength will be more in comparison to AUD, NZD and CAD than EUR and GBP. In case of a disappointment, EURUSD and GBPUSD could register noticeable gains while Gold and Crude might also witness additional reason to rise.

Have a nice trading-day …………

642

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 04 – November – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Thursday proved to be another bad-day for the USD traders as upbeat Factory Orders couldn’t confront weaker than expected ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & three-month high Jobless Claims amidst on-going uncertainty concerning next week’s Presidential election. The EUR also adhered to profit-booking but strengthened against CAD & CHF while GBP registered across the board rally with UK High-court hearing on Brexit ordered present government to take parliamentary approval to start Article 50 proceedings, which receded some of the Brexit fears for the time-being, and BoE published a hawkish Quarterly Inflation report by curbing chances of any further rate-cuts in the present year. Further, the JPY and Gold maintained their upward trajectory by taking advantage of present macro uncertainty while AUD and NZD prices also extended their upsides with positive economics and optimistic comments from respective central banks signaled less bias towards loose monetary policy. Moreover, Oil prices kept declining as news that North-Sea producers will ship the most oil in more than four years in December.

Unlike all other days of the week, the market shifted back to favoring US Dollar on early Friday ahead of the US Jobs report which is likely to provide set of positive figures to fuel speculations concerning December rate-hike. However, some among analyst fraternity do expect the Labor Force Participation Rate to be a spoiler and could restrict excessive gains of the greenback. The Australian Dollar got another boost when Retail Sales rallied to more than a year’s high and RBA statement revealed few upbeat notes about its own economy while expecting recovery in China, its biggest trading partner. However, the JPY and NZD are a bit weaker at the moment while GBP has also registered a bit pullback.

The US NFP and Unemployment are likely to register 174K and 4.9% mark against their 156K and 5.0% respective priors while the Average Earnings are also expected to register three-month high of 0.3% against 0.2% previous. Hence, chances of the greenback to recover some of its recent losses are higher; though, prevailing election tensions could continue limiting the USD gains, which in-turn signal EURUSD closing the week around 1.1060, or at 1.1000 if we become more optimistic about US currency, while 1.1130 TL resistance continue providing strong upside barrier to the pair prices.

For GBPUSD, a break of 1.2480 can quickly print 1.2600 on the chart while reversal, which is more likely, can flash 1.2340 support on the chart. Moving forward, AUDUSD is still struggling to break 0.7700 mark and the NZDUSD has 0.7360 resistance with 0.7630 and 0.7270 acting as respective support. Additionally, USDJPY may surpass 103.50 mark and can rise to 104.00 while a dip below 102.60 can drag the pair to 101.80.

To sum up, the NFP will be an eye-catcher of the day, which is expected to help greenback recover some of its losses but broader pessimism surrounding presidential election may limit the USD up-moves. Though, one is certain to happen and that’s volatile US session.

Have a nice trading-day …………

643

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 09 – November – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

While speculations of Hillary Clinton winning the US Presidential Election helped greenback mark another positive closing on Tuesday, the result announcement-day proved to be a nightmare for Democrats as Republican candidate, Donald Trump, registered a victory with 276 seats compared to 270 needed. The disappointment roiled global markets and rejuvenated memories of Brexit as investors were forced to safe-havens and register highest gains of JPY and Gold prices since UK referendum result. The commodity basket plunged into negative as Trump seen a dire-enemy of Asian countries, majorly China, and might revoke some amendments helping global trading system. The US Dollar portrayed the same disappointment with more than 2.0% decline while Mexican Pesso couldn’t see any stop to halt its drop. Further, equity markets also register noticeable downsides with S&P 500 trimming its 5% trading-curb limit and some of the Asian indices also testing grounds.

Moving forwards, the election results ruled over Chinese inflation readings that printed upbeat figures and kept punishing the commodity currencies, like AUD and NZD while CAD had to bear the burden of Crude price downturn. Moreover, the CHF, as considered to be a safe-haven, managed to mark noticeable strength while EUR and GBP remained a bit strong against Aussie, Loonie, Kiwi and greenback while losing against JPY, CHF.

With what is majorly known as a global shock, marketers might avoid trading more for the rest of the day while keeping their likeliness for JPY and Gold prices. However, that doesn’t mean a reversal in greenback and commodity currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD, as an actual victory of Donald Trump might be an obstacle for December Fed Rate-hike and could threaten some of these commodity-centered economies by NAFTA cancellation. Though, it’s just a Popular-Vote results that might be done by day-end, the Electoral Votes are still need to be punched in mid-December while Congress, the final judge of electors, will then announce final results during early January 2017.

On a technical note, EURUSD has already breached 1.1210 and is likely heading to 1.1330 resistance during further acceleration with 1.1130 being an immediate support during a pullback session. Unlike EURUSD, the GBPUSD is yet to clear 1.2560 resistance and might scale its recent rally to 1.2360 downside figure while USDJPY is indicating 100.40 TL support and 103.80 offering adjacent upside rest. Further, AUDUSD bounced-off from 100-day SMA and TL support of 0.7590 signaling 0.7730 resistance but NZDUSD portrays additional declines with 0.7260 downside halt and 0.7415 being resistance to watch.

To sum up, today’s market plunge is less likely to be a correction as Trump victory becomes more serious threat for the Global finances and could hurt the chances of Fed’s rate-hike together with NAFTA breach, which in-turn signals continuation of recent southward trajectory by USD, AUD, NZD and CAD.

Have a nice trading-day …………

644

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 14 – November – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

While surprise win of Donald Trump and an upbeat market reaction were headlines of most news during last week, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) portrayed the same with noticeable gains and pleased Bulls. The EUR remained fragile and the JPY also lost some of its safe-haven shine; though, GBP proved to be an unexpected gainer as Pound traders perceive Trump victory as a good-news for new UK. Further, commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, had to bear the burden of Republican praise as Mr. Trump has been tough on global-trade pacts and might hurt China, world’s largest consumer of commodity and a big exporter. Additionally, RBNZ’s rate-cut and plunging Crude prices provided extra-weakness to NZD and CAD respectively while five-month high UoM Consumer Sentiment from US gave another-push to greenback buyers.

On Monday, markets got another-boost in favor of greenback after Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales lagged behind general consensus while Japanese authorities showed their intention to meet to be-US President and discuss free trade deals. From this, we could ascertain that USD has a good-run ahead while JPY and Gold might have reasons to decline further.

Having witnessed huge volatility from US election results, this week’s headline inflation readings from US, UK and Canada, coupled with UK & AU Job figures are likely to grab market-attention. Moreover, understanding what Donald Trump’s policy priorities are could also fuel up-and-down during the week to come.

Among other CPI releases, Tuesday’s UK Inflation report and Friday’s US CPI are likely to bear more importance as the Britain is near to March 2017 Article 50 deadline while higher US inflation can help Federal Reserve announce its much awaited rate-hike in December. Moreover, Thursday’s AU job figures can help the Aussie traders witness mild profit-booking if Employment Change meets forecasts while disappointing readings could have higher repercussions and further downside for AUDUSD.

Also, US Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing and UK Retail Sales are some of the second-tier economics to continue fueling Forex moves with recent optimism at Britain likely to help GBP’s extended up-move on positive data-points. At Canadian front, the headline CPI, up for Friday and the on-going speculations of December 30 OPEC meeting and the fresh news from Iran, Iraq and Saudi-Arabia can continue making Loonie traders on desk.

Hence, top-tier inflation and job figures, coupled with news headlines concerning OPEC and Trump policy outlook can continue making markets alive and might help the US Dollar further towards north. Though, trading moves aren’t likely to shift as fast as last week and negative details might have higher repercussions.

On the technical note, EURUSD and GBPUSD are likely to gain much attention after last week’s heavy positives. Given the US CPI and Retail Sales continue pleasing greenback buyers, the EURUSD’s downturn below 1.0700 important TL can’t be denied, which in-turn opens the door for 1.0550-45 mark. Though, disappointing news could trigger profit-booking moves to fuel the pair towards 1.0950 and the 1.1120-30 nearby resistances.

For GBPUSD, the 1.2780 continue being as a strong resistance and positive readings can fuel the pair beyond that, giving rise to expectations of seeing 1.30000 psychological mark. Though, dip below 1.2330, coupled with negative UK data-points, might again threaten Pound traders to witness sub-1.2100 support-area.

Have a nice trading-day …………

646

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 15 – November – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Monday proved to be another pleasant-day for the US Dollar traders as speculations that Donald Trump will boost US growth and inflation through increased spending continued fueling the greenback Index (I.USDX) and helped it mark fresh high of the 2016. Asian currencies were badly hit with commodities also bearing the burden of higher USD while a dip in Chinese industrial production provided additional weakness to AUD and NZD. Further, the JPY and Gold prices weakened to five-month lows on declining safe-haven demand but the GBP remained upbeat on the prior optimism from US’s new President-elect.

As we approach the second-day of the week, which has comparatively more economics to track, market started witnessing a bit of pullback ahead of important UK CPI, EU Flash GDP, US Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing. With the German GDP lagging behind forecast & prior, the EUR maintained is downturn ahead of the regional growth figure while AUD seems enjoying an upbeat statement from RBA minutes. Moreover, Crude prices also reversed from three-month lows after the news broke that OPEC members are working to bridge supply-demand gap and might agree to freeze output during present month meeting.

Considering the present pullback session, GBPUSD and EURUSD are likely to be affected the most with chances of weaker UK CPI dragging back Pound to 1.2340 are higher while an upbeat print can further fuel the pair to 1.2600 mark. Additionally, dip in US Retail Sales, coupled with positive EU GDP, can also help the EURUSD to aim for 1.0855-60 region with 1.0690 being immediate support should the US figures keep promising December rate-hike.

Other than both these majors, USDJPY is also likely to trim some of its latest gains towards re-testing 107.60 support with 108.50-60 offering nearby resistance. Moreover, AUDUSD failed to sustain the trend-line break and may again confront 0.7600 upside figure with a dip below 0.7510 opening its south-run to 0.7440 while 0.7020 and 0.7170 can continue limiting NZDUSD moves.

To sum up, traders are waiting for important data releases and adhering to profit-booking during earlier sessions. Given the scheduled data-points disappoint GBP & USD traders, chances of a higher magnitude decline by both these winners can’t be denied.

Have a nice trading-day …………

647

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 16 – November – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

While upbeat US Retail Sales figures provided an additional strength to the USD buyers and fueled the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to fresh high of 2016, some amongst the analyst fraternity feared that present up-move is “too fast” and curbed extended rally of the currency during later trading hours. The GBP also carried its weakness forward after UK CPI lagged behind consensus and prior while EUR remained a bit strong with ZEW Economic Sentiment numbers surpassing expectations. Further, the Canadian Dollar also strengthened as OPEC members, together with Russia, braced for next-week’s informal talks to manage the month-end production freeze deal but the NZD kept declining on weaker than previous GDT prices Index while AUD closed the day in positive territory on hawkish RBA minutes. Additionally, the JPY still remained sellers’ favorite and the Gold took a break from its south-run.

On Wednesday, traders showed their fear from US Dollar rally and chose to liquidate some of the recent longs during earlier sessions. However, the greenback still remained strong enough against JPY, AUD and NZD as market optimism hasn’t fade yet and expected negatives for China remain present.

Looking forward, UK labor market details, US & New-Zealand PPI and the US Industrial Production, coupled with Canadian Manufacturing Sales are some of the important data-points that could continue making economists busy for the day. Amongst them, the UK job details are likely to provide additional weakness to the GBP while chances of another good US data-set can’t be denied. Further, Canadian Manufacturing Sales may disappoint Loonie’s (CAD’s) recent buyers but New-Zealand stat could help Kiwi (NZD) cut its recent losses. Hence, even if the market moved against during early Wednesday, chances of the greenback strength to restore become more likely.

[B]Technical Speak:[/B]

As mentioned earlier, traders are less likely to carry their present profit-booking forward, except pessimistic US details, recent gains of the EURUSD and GBPUSD are likely to be affected the most. Though, UK job figures can trigger more weakness on the part of GBP and hence may make EURGBP again the favorite for buyers.

Have a nice trading-day …………

648

Hello Traders,

Slew of upbeat economic data-points, including four-decade low Jobless Claims and better CPI, received a helping hand from Fed Chair when she, during her Testimony, signaled that the US central bank is “Too Close” to rate-hike. The news/events gifted additional fuel to the greenback’s skyrocketing rally, making it an undoubted winner again on Thursday. The US Dollar managed to post across the board heavy gains while being on the way to reflect its steepest two-week advance in 28 years against Japanese Yen. The EUR remained weaker due to upcoming election fears that may give rise to another Brexit-like situation if populism wins and break the Euro region; however, the GBP didn’t weaken much as UK Retail Sales surpassed consensus & prior. Further, the AUD, NZD and CAD couldn’t deviate from their south-run and the Crude prices failed to enjoy hawkish OPEC statements as rising USD curbed commodity demands. Additionally, Gold stretched it drop towards May lows as rising US optimism derailed its safe-haven demand.

On Friday, market players chose to follow previously orchestrated path and favored USD; though, Crude prices are trading in tension during the OPEC and Russia’s informal meeting in Doha, comments from there will roll-out soon. Furthermore, even after witnessing increasing bets favoring USD longs, comparatively thin economic calendar seems restricting traders’ activity while writing the article.

Unlike yesterday, there are fewer economics to track during the day; however, Canadian CPI, comments from Doha meeting and some scheduled speeches of FOMC members could provide liquid session going forward. Should there be an informal outout-freeze accord in Doha, between global oil producers, chances of the Crude price spike and the a CAD short-covering become imminent while upbeat words from FOMC members, which is more likely, can continue paving way for USD Dollar’s north-run.

[B]At the Technical-Desk[/B]

Considering the present market scenario of less economics, except concerning CAD, chances of the USDCAD to trim some of its latest gains are higher which can also be witnessed in GBPCAD downside. Further, NZDUSD did break 200-day SMA, signaling further south-run.

Have a nice trading-day …………

649

This is nice work Anil. Keep it up.

650

Dearth of economics and a willful pause ahead of Thanksgiving holidays forced US Dollar to take a break from its 11-days long upward trajectory on Monday. The greenback gauge (I.USDX) refrained form extending its previous run-up on Monday and chose to please other currencies by a bit pullback. The EUR witnessed a short-covering after the news that German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, will run for a fourth-term while GBP recovered with Theresa May’s statement signaling intermediate trade-deal with EU prior to starting Article 50 procedure. Further, the AUD and NZD also recovered from ground-zero on improving commodity prices after weaker USD but the CAD had additional reason to rise as Iran and Iraq signaled more likeliness for OPEC to agree on production-freeze during next week’s meet. Additionally, the JPY managed to take a breathe after its plunge and the Gold also recovered on slow safe-haven demand.

On early Tuesday, news of Japanese earth-quake gave rise to extended safe-haven demands of the JPY and Gold while commodity currencies stretched their earlier advances on rising crude prices and expectations that Trump’s infrastructure plans will revive commodity demand. At the economic front, Canadian Retail Sales and US Existing Home Sales are the scheduled data-points to entertain short-term traders.

While some sellers may be enjoying the recent USD dip, it should be noted that the same is less likely to prevail longer considering the strength of US economics and Trump plans. Further, China may be hard-hit soon as Trump already signaled that he would exit from TPP on the first-day of his presidency, which in-turn becomes a negative signal for AUD, NZD and CAD. However, commodity demand from new infrastructure build may help soothing that pain a bit.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

While break of short-term descending trend-line highlights the importance of NZDUSD trade, a small range of USDJPY signal expected volatility in these pairs. Moreover, recent improvement in Crude prices increases the likeliness of more moves in USDCAD.

Have a nice trading-day …………

651

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 28 – November – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Following a thin economic calendar bearing week, market players are bracing for another important week where in the much awaited OPEC meeting, coupled with GDP and Job figures are there to shake trading desks. Let’s analyze details.

[B]Last Week’s Look[/B]

Even with fewer economic details to observe, mainly due to Thanksgiving holiday, the US Dollar maintained steam to post third weekly gain as upbeat Durable Goods Orders and hawkish statements from FOMC minutes kept favoring Greenback bulls. The EUR trimmed some of its latest losses, but not against USD, as headline PMIs from the region remained well above forecasts while GBP managed to print positive weekly close after UK household spending and business investment increased. Further, the JPY lagged behind everything with fewest traders wish to go for safe-havens but the AUD and NZD were in positive range due to expectations Trump Infrastructure policies will inflate metals’ demand. Additionally, Crude prices remained volatile as Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia continue posing different signs relating to this week’s crucial meeting, which in-turn fetched the CAD to south.

[B]What’s Ahead?[/B]

Unlike the last week, traders have a busy calendar this week with OPEC meeting, US Job details, Chinese & UK PMIs and US GDP figures offering slew of forces to make markets most volatile.

Among the aforementioned, OPEC meeting and US Jobs-GDP figures are likely to take center-stage of market dynamics. The OPEC meeting, which gave a sigh of relief in September by a strong proposal to collectively reduce output, is likely to face too many headwinds as Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, the three most important Crude producers, are still at logger-heads with each other. Further, the Russia, who has been performing as facilitator to get the deal signed, may also become a threat to the deal. Hence, everything is still in surprise before the November 30 meeting ends. In case global crude producers agree over output-cut, Oil prices are likely to rally towards $53-54 while in an otherwise case a sub-$40 level can’t be denied.

Moving forward, Tuesday’s US GDP and Friday’s NFP are both likely to continue please US Dollar Bulls but a soft Earning report on Friday may curtail the strength of up-move. Further, EU Flash CPI, on Wednesday, is also expected to print better than prior stat and can help EUR to stretch its recent upside. Hence, a bit weaker print from US, coupled with strong EU Inflation, and/or OPEC dissent could become a weaker spot for the greenback while JPY can take the advantage of same.

Additionally, Thursday’s Chinese headline PMIs and UK Manufacturing PMI, followed by UK Construction PMI on Friday, can help forecast AUD, NZD and GBP moves. While Chinese PMIs are likely to deviate from their recent upstream and can drag the AUD and NZD prices to south, UK PMIs flash mixed signals and may fuel more volatility into the GBP pairs.
At the end, a no deal by OPEC can provide much needed boost to the JPY’s safe-haven demand while soft figures from US may give rise to profit-booking in USD ahead of the crucial December meeting.

[B]Technical Points[/B]

Considering the important of events, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and USDCAD become four most favorite pairs to observe during the week. While EURUSD’s recent bounce needs to fill 1.0850 in order to print 1.1080 on chart, a dip below 1.0510 can flash 1.0430 & 1.0350 supports. GBPUSD can continue observing short-term ascending trend-channel, which in-turn give importance to 1.2370 & 1.2680 levels, but the AUDUSD have to clear 200-day SMA level of 0.7525-30 before aiming 0.7600 mark with 0.7330 being nearby weekly support. Moreover, USDCAD has 1.3635-40 as important resistance while 1.3260-50 become crucial support to look with overall upside seem more favorable.

Have a nice trading-day …………

653

Thank you so much :slight_smile:

654

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 29 – November – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even with no major economics to trade, US Dollar Bulls had to gulp-down a negative daily closing on Monday as traders seem more concerned about OPEC meeting and Italian referendum with expectations that greenback surge was “too fast, too far”. The same outlook helped safe-havens, including Gold and JPY, while affecting the EUR due to threat that present Italian PM may need to resign if December 04 referendum trigger political instability, for which chances are higher. Further, the AUD and NZD maintained their upside while CAD gained after Iraq favored OPEC deal which in-turn helped Crude to strengthen. However, GBP had to dip after ECB President signaled protectionist measures against UK during Article 50 negotiation.

Moving forward, today’s Japanese Household Spending and Retail Sales remained positive for the JPY while USD started recovering some of its yesterday’s losses after witnessing risk-safety buying due to Italian political risk dragging EUR and chances that the US GDP will please greenback buyers. Additionally, the Crude prices again started the day in losses after Saudi Arabia continue to act as rebel among OPEC members and signaled no production-cut is necessary. The nation also didn’t participate in Monday’s informal meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC members which lead to cancellation of the same gathering, giving rise to chances of NO production-freeze agreement during tomorrow’s meeting in Vienna. Hence, the same uncertainty can continue making energy traders busy until any outcome.

At the Economic calendar, German Prelim CPI, US Second Estimate of Q3 2016 GDP and CB Consumer Confidence Index are in lime-light for the day. While German CPI may continue disappointing EUR traders, the US GDP and consumer sentiment gauge are likely to trigger fresh USD up-moves. Furthermore, OPEC’s uncertainty and Chinese pessimism are likely weigh down the commodity currencies.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

With the present political uncertainty at EU and scheduled upbeat release from US, chances of the EURUSD to continue its south-run are more likely while USDCAD may bounce-back on OPEC woes and the NZDUSD could also trim some of its gains on failure to break horizontal resistance.

Have a nice trading-day …………

655

Hello Traders,

Wednesday proved to be a good-day for global traders as once in eight years production-cut deal by the OPEC & non-OPEC oil producers fueled market optimism, making investors focus back to Fed rate-hike issue. The Crude prices surged after the announcement and the CAD also reflected the same positivist. On the other hand, upbeat US ADP and Personal Income releases, coupled with hawkish economic outlook from Beige Book, helped US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to post first in four-day positive closing. Additionally, the EUR witnessed downturn even with welcome CPI figures while GBP managed to maintain its strength. Furthermore, AUD and NZD dipped on Chinese pessimism and strong USD whereas the JPY and Gold plunged heavily with crashing safe-haven demand.

The OPEC deal, which until Wednesday was considered to be a failure, pleased global energy traders with a planned production-cut to 32.5 million barrels a day. The deal will be in effect from 2017 start for 6 months and called for a 6,00,000 barrels a day production-cut from non-OPEC members. Not only the deal was positive but Russia’s first in 15 years agreement for cut and the Saudi Arabia’s assent to the deal was also evenly pleasant.

Moving towards Thursday, the early-day release of Chinese official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI also entertained commodity traders as Chinese Manufacturing PMI rallied to the highest in more than 2 years while Non-Manufacturing PMI also surpassed consensus. Though, a private release of Caixin Manufacturing PMI remained soft and curbed gains of AUD and NZD.

For the rest of the day, UK Manufacturing PMI, US Jobless Claims and ISM Manufacturing PMI are likely to entertain traders with majority of the details likely to continue bolstering USD.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

Given the “too far, too fast” drop in JPY, coupled with expected pullback in GBP, the GBPJPY may reverse from its 143.85 – 144.00 resistance confluence while AUDUSD may revisit 0.7300 mark as it recently dipped below 0.7430. Further, USDCAD can also bounce-back on greenback strength.

Have a nice trading-day …………